CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMcKale Center at ALKEME Arena, Tucson, AZ

Cal Poly

Efficiency #240

2025-26: 14-19 · 10-11 conf

Arizona

Efficiency #3

2025-26: 36-3 · 19-2 conf

Thu, Nov 5 · TBD

69.3

win 2%

Projected

93.5

win 98%

No line posted yet.

Model: ARIZ −24.2 · total 162.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Arizona 70.1, Cal Poly 72.8 → 74.6 possessions

+13.6

Arizona offense vs Cal Poly defense

+10.4

Cal Poly offense vs Arizona defense

−9.4

Projected total

162.8

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Arizona offense vs Cal Poly defense

+10.4

Cal Poly offense vs Arizona defense

+9.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.3

Arizona by 24.2

24.2

Cal Poly side ◂▸ Arizona side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +24.1 against +24.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Arizona.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 74.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cal Poly is the faster team (76.1, #1 of 365) and Arizona the slower (71.4, #38). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

74.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

162.8

model

Projected team totals

69.3 / 93.5

Cal Poly / Arizona

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

72.8#1

Cal Poly

70.1#41

Arizona

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

Arizona averages 71.4 possessions per 40, Cal Poly 76.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 76 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageArizona

Where Arizona scores: shooting

Arizona shoots an effective 54.7% (#45); Cal Poly allows 53.8% (#292). Expect about 54.6%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageCal Poly

Where Cal Poly struggles: shooting

Cal Poly shoots an effective 51.5% (#170); Arizona allows 45.3% (#4). Expect about 48.4%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.

GlassArizona

Arizona owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.6% is worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions for Arizona's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Arizona, Arizona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Cal Poly at about 48.8% of its shots from three, Arizona about 29.8%.

TurnoversCal Poly

Cal Poly turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Cal Poly's offense.

Cal Poly has the ball

OffenseArizona allowsvs D1 avg

51.5% #170

45.3% #4

-4.1 pt/100

19.9% #346

16.3% #200

-1.8 pt/100

30.0% #202

26.9% #34

-1.2 pt/100

34.9% #182

27.1% #25

-0.6 pt/100

78.5% #12

—

+0.5 pt/100

Cal Poly net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.2 pts/100

Arizona has the ball

OffenseCal Poly allowsvs D1 avg

54.7% #45

53.8% #292

+4.7 pt/100

15.1% #72

16.2% #209

+1.6 pt/100

38.4% #5

29.6% #141

+3.2 pt/100

43.9% #11

34.1% #154

+0.5 pt/100

73.4% #156

—

+0.1 pt/100

Arizona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Cal Polyoffense vsArizonadefense

Share of shots by zone

Cal Poly shoots

38.2

3.5

4.4

53.9

Arizona allows

27.4

11.5

23.6

37.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.7%#209	53.1%#25	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.0%#148	34.9%#55	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.5%#357	35.9%#104	38.0%
Three	33.0%#228	31.4%#42	33.7%

Arizonaoffense vsCal Polydefense

Share of shots by zone

Arizona shoots

40.7

12.4

21.2

25.7

Cal Poly allows

41.3

5.9

12.5

40.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.0%#71	61.5%#284	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.0%#50	35.5%#72	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.9%#61	41.2%#282	38.0%
Three	36.6%#37	34.7%#231	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Cal Poly

−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#270 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#202

Def reb %

70.4%

#141

Turnover %

19.9%

#346

Forced TO %

16.2%

#209

FT rate

34.9%

#182

FT allowed

34.1%

#154

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−2.1

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Arizona

+9.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#3 of 365

Off reb %

38.4%

Def reb %

73.1%

#34

Turnover %

15.1%

#72

Forced TO %

16.3%

#200

FT rate

43.9%

#11

FT allowed

27.1%

#25

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.6

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn+2.3

Foul shots allowed+2.1

Arizona has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.0 (#3 of 365) to Cal Poly’s −2.0 (#270).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Cal Poly2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Cal Poly's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Hamad Mousa	G	So	6'8"	32-30	31.4	20.4	6.3	2.0	2.5	53.9%	37.2%	7.1	87.8%	32.2%
9	Peter Bandelj	G	So	6'4"	32-32	30.8	13.0	4.0	3.3	2.4	50.8%	34.7%	5.2	85.2%	23.5%
14	Cayden Ward	G	So	6'5"	33-31	29.4	14.5	6.3	1.6	2.9	53.5%	31.0%	5.2	75.3%	27.6%
5	Guzman Vasilic	G	So	6'4"	30-17	23.2	7.6	2.4	1.1	1.0	54.2%	37.1%	5.0	77.8%	17.4%
3	Jake Davis	G	Jr	6'4"	32-18	21.1	5.4	3.1	1.8	1.3	41.8%	26.0%	3.3	72.5%	18.1%
11	Austin Goode	F	Fr	6'7"	32-16	16.3	5.2	2.5	0.9	0.8	51.4%	30.9%	2.5	73.7%	18.1%
7	Ali Assran	F	Fr	6'9"	31-5	12.7	3.5	3.4	0.7	1.2	46.6%	21.4%	0.9	59.6%	19.5%
13	Troy Plumtree	F	Fr	6'6"	30-2	12.2	4.8	2.4	0.7	1.1	57.5%	22.6%	1.0	66.7%	22.4%
4	Kieran Elliott	G	Jr	6'6"	18-10	16.9	4.9	3.2	0.6	0.6	54.8%	35.0%	1.1	82.6%	14.5%
8	Jackson Mosley	PG	Jr	5'10"	17-0	12.5	5.6	1.2	0.8	0.4	47.6%	29.2%	2.8	70.8%	24.7%
21	Luka Tarlac	G	Sr	6'7"	12-3	15.1	3.0	1.8	2.1	1.5	46.7%	18.2%	0.9	53.3%	16.3%
15	Aaron Price Jr.	PF	Sr	6'8"	21-1	6.1	2.0	1.0	0.3	0.4	59.1%	50.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.0%
1	Jess Esso Essis	G	Fr	6'10"	7-0	17.4	8.6	3.6	1.0	1.6	61.9%	41.4%	4.1	88.9%	25.5%
0	Jason Scott	G	Fr	6'4"	8-0	5.6	2.4	0.3	0.5	0.4	50.0%	57.1%	0.9	62.5%	23.5%
22	Eric Brown	F	Jr	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	25.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	21.1%
2	Braden Freeman	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Arizona2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Ivan Kharchenkov	F	Fr	6'7"	39-39	28.4	10.4	4.3	2.3	1.5	54.6%	31.7%	2.7	72.3%	20.9%
13	Motiejus Krivas	C	Jr	7'2"	39-39	25.2	10.4	8.2	1.1	1.4	57.7%	30.8%	0.3	78.0%	21.4%
2	Dwayne Aristode	F	Fr	6'8"	35-0	13.3	3.8	1.7	0.7	0.4	64.6%	46.2%	1.9	50.0%	14.3%
15	Sidi Gueye	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	3.6	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.2	72.2%	—	0.0	63.6%	17.3%
21	Evan Nelson	G	Sr	6'2"	25-0	3.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.3	53.8%	40.0%	0.4	—	13.6%
22	Addison Arnold	G	So	6'3"	20-0	2.3	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	15.4%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	20.1%
42	Sven Djopmo	G	So	6'2"	19-0	1.9	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.1	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	40.0%	15.8%
11	Jackson Cook	G	So	6'3"	10-0	1.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	13.2%
7	Jackson Francois	G	Sr	6'5"	10-0	1.4	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2	66.7%	—	0.0	—	19.1%
6	Bryce James	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	Mabil Mawut	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cal Poly2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Cal Poly's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Hamad Mousa	G	So	6'8"	32-30	31.4	20.4	6.3	2.0	2.5	53.9%	37.2%	7.1	87.8%	32.2%
9	Peter Bandelj	G	So	6'4"	32-32	30.8	13.0	4.0	3.3	2.4	50.8%	34.7%	5.2	85.2%	23.5%
14	Cayden Ward	G	So	6'5"	33-31	29.4	14.5	6.3	1.6	2.9	53.5%	31.0%	5.2	75.3%	27.6%
5	Guzman Vasilic	G	So	6'4"	30-17	23.2	7.6	2.4	1.1	1.0	54.2%	37.1%	5.0	77.8%	17.4%
3	Jake Davis	G	Jr	6'4"	32-18	21.1	5.4	3.1	1.8	1.3	41.8%	26.0%	3.3	72.5%	18.1%
11	Austin Goode	F	Fr	6'7"	32-16	16.3	5.2	2.5	0.9	0.8	51.4%	30.9%	2.5	73.7%	18.1%
7	Ali Assran	F	Fr	6'9"	31-5	12.7	3.5	3.4	0.7	1.2	46.6%	21.4%	0.9	59.6%	19.5%
13	Troy Plumtree	F	Fr	6'6"	30-2	12.2	4.8	2.4	0.7	1.1	57.5%	22.6%	1.0	66.7%	22.4%
4	Kieran Elliott	G	Jr	6'6"	18-10	16.9	4.9	3.2	0.6	0.6	54.8%	35.0%	1.1	82.6%	14.5%
8	Jackson Mosley	PG	Jr	5'10"	17-0	12.5	5.6	1.2	0.8	0.4	47.6%	29.2%	2.8	70.8%	24.7%
21	Luka Tarlac	G	Sr	6'7"	12-3	15.1	3.0	1.8	2.1	1.5	46.7%	18.2%	0.9	53.3%	16.3%
15	Aaron Price Jr.	PF	Sr	6'8"	21-1	6.1	2.0	1.0	0.3	0.4	59.1%	50.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.0%
1	Jess Esso Essis	G	Fr	6'10"	7-0	17.4	8.6	3.6	1.0	1.6	61.9%	41.4%	4.1	88.9%	25.5%
0	Jason Scott	G	Fr	6'4"	8-0	5.6	2.4	0.3	0.5	0.4	50.0%	57.1%	0.9	62.5%	23.5%
22	Eric Brown	F	Jr	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	25.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	21.1%
2	Braden Freeman	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Cal Poly

Against the spread

Season

17-13-1

Home

7-4-1

Road

9-8

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +5.5

Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-13-1

Home

6-6

Road

11-5-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg vs total +0.3

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	N	L 69–72	+4.5	W+1.5	163.0	U141	94.2	98.3	73.2
Mar 7	BakersfieldAdjEM #339	H	W 108–76	−9.0	W+23.0	173.0	O184	131.0	92.2	82.5
Mar 5	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	A	L 85–107	+9.5	L−12.5	160.5	O192	108.1	136.1	78.6
Feb 28	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	A	L 64–80	+7.5	L−8.5	164.0	U144	91.2	114.0	70.2
Feb 26	Long Beach StAdjEM #267	H	W 102–92	−5.5	W+4.5	161.5	O194	127.1	114.6	80.3
Feb 19	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	A	W 86–75	+11.0	W+22.0	161.0	P161	104.3	91.0	82.4
Feb 14	Santa BarbaraAdjEM #140	H	W 89–79	+4.5	W+14.5	159.0	O168	133.5	118.5	66.7
Feb 12	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	H	W 79–73	+5.5	W+11.5	161.0	U152	99.2	91.7	79.6
Feb 7	UC DavisAdjEM #185	A	L 58–67	+6.0	L−3.0	169.0	U125	83.6	96.6	69.4
Feb 5	CSU NorthridgeAdjEM #196	H	L 96–97	+2.5	W+1.5	178.5	O193	120.5	121.7	79.7

Arizona

Against the spread

Season

23-14-2

Home

9-8

Road

4-4-2

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

20-19

Home

8-9

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.7

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 73–91	−1.0	L−19.0	157.5	O164	93.6	116.6	78.0
Mar 28	#2PurdueAdjEM #9	N	W 79–64	−5.0	W+10.0	152.5	U143	121.0	98.0	65.3
Mar 26	#4ArkansasAdjEM #19	N	W 109–88	−8.0	W+13.0	165.5	O197	136.4	110.1	79.9
Mar 22	#9Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	W 78–66	−11.5	W+0.5	154.0	U144	121.2	102.5	64.4
Mar 20	#16Long IslandAdjEM #195	N	W 92–58	−30.5	W+3.5	148.0	O150	130.1	82.0	70.7
Mar 14	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	N	W 79–74	−1.5	W+3.5	138.5	O153	120.2	112.6	65.7
Mar 13	#7Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	W 82–80	−3.5	L−1.5	144.5	O162	123.9	120.8	66.2
Mar 12	UCFAdjEM #70	N	W 81–59	−15.5	W+6.5	158.5	U140	118.4	86.2	68.4
Mar 7	ColoradoAdjEM #91	A	W 89–79	−13.5	L−3.5	156.0	O168	122.5	108.7	72.7
Mar 2	#6Iowa StateAdjEM #7	H	W 73–57	−7.0	W+9.0	149.0	U130	109.3	85.4	66.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Cal PolyArizona

Efficiency

108.0

119.5

111.4

96.3

72.8

70.1

—

Shooting

51.5%

54.7%

53.7%

54.6%

33.0%

36.6%

78.5%

73.4%

34.9%

43.9%

Ball control & glass

19.9%

15.1%

16.2%

16.3%

30.0%

38.4%

29.6%

26.9%

9.5%

8.6%

11.4%

8.5%

Style

52.6%

26.3%

38.5%

49.0%

16.1%

16.9%

49.6%

54.0%

32.1%

29.4%

Roster

2.06

1.83

6'5.6"

6'9.4"

—

36.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Cal Poly

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Cal Poly's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Arizona

Returning minutes: 36.3%Returning production: 33.7%

Lost

Jaden Bradley 30.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Brayden Burries 29.7 mpg, 16.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Koa Peat 25.7 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Anthony Dell'Orso 20.9 mpg, 8.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tobe Awaka 20.7 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Mabil Mawut no D1 minutes last season
Bryce James no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.