CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMcCann Arena, Poughkeepsie, NYAmerica East-Metro Challenge
UMBC
Efficiency #147
2025-26: 24-9 · 17-2 conf
@
Marist
Efficiency #153
2025-26: 19-12 · 13-9 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM ET
67.0
win 37%
Projected
70.7
win 63%
No line posted yet.
Model: MRST −3.7 · total 137.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Marist 67.6, UMBC 67.5 → 66.7 possessions
−3.5
Marist offense vs UMBC defense
−3.5
UMBC offense vs Marist defense
−3.4
Projected total
137.8
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Marist offense vs UMBC defense
−3.5
UMBC offense vs Marist defense
+3.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Marist by 3.7
3.7
UMBC side ◂▸ Marist side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marist.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UMBC is the faster team (66.5, #267 of 365) and Marist the slower (66.5, #271). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
137.8
model
Projected team totals
67.0 / 70.7
UMBC / Marist
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.5#252
UMBC
67.6#246
Marist
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageMarist
Where Marist struggles: shooting
Marist shoots an effective 49.3% (#276); UMBC allows 49.4% (#79). Expect about 49.2%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageUMBC
Where UMBC struggles: the offensive glass
UMBC rebounds 24.9% of its own misses (#342); Marist lets opponents grab 28.3% of their own misses (#77). Expect about 25.5%, 4.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashUMBC
Style match: ball movement
UMBC creates off the dribble (assists on 44.8% of its baskets); Marist breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.3% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 43.5% — both habits push the same way.
Pace
Half-court grind
Marist averages 66.5 possessions per 40, UMBC 66.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Marist's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UMBC at about 37.2% of its shots from three, Marist about 34.4%.
GlassMarist
Marist gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against Marist's offense.
UMBC has the ball
OffenseMarist allowsvs D1 avg
54.1% #64
45.6% #5
-1.8 pt/100
14.0% #25
19.5% #34
-0.2 pt/100
24.9% #342
28.3% #77
-3.0 pt/100
34.1% #205
37.6% #252
+0.1 pt/100
76.0% #54
—
+0.3 pt/100
UMBC net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.5 pts/100
Marist has the ball
OffenseUMBC allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #276
49.4% #79
-3.0 pt/100
16.9% #193
15.1% #285
+1.3 pt/100
29.1% #233
25.8% #18
-1.9 pt/100
25.7% #360
25.7% #10
-1.3 pt/100
78.1% #16
—
+0.5 pt/100
Marist net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersUMBCoffense vsMaristdefense
Share of shots by zone
UMBC shoots
36.8
7.5
16.4
39.3
Marist allows
37.4
6.1
19.2
37.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.8%#100 | 54.0%#40 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.8%#25 | 36.7%#105 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.5%#171 | 34.9%#72 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.1%#55 | 28.6%#2 | 33.7% |
Maristoffense vsUMBCdefense
Share of shots by zone
Marist shoots
35.8
6.9
23.6
33.7
UMBC allows
43.1
5.3
14.3
37.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.4%#181 | 54.5%#50 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.7%#152 | 39.5%#175 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.5%#92 | 36.5%#121 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.2%#272 | 32.7%#98 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersUMBC
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#64 of 365
Off reb %
24.9%
#342
Def reb %
74.2%
#18
Turnover %
14.0%
#25
Forced TO %
15.1%
#285
FT rate
34.1%
#205
FT allowed
25.7%
#10
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.8
Defensive rebounding+1.5
Ball security+1.9
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+2.4
Marist
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#218 of 365
Off reb %
29.1%
#233
Def reb %
71.7%
#77
Turnover %
16.9%
#193
Forced TO %
19.5%
#34
FT rate
25.7%
#360
FT allowed
37.6%
#252
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.6
UMBC has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#64 of 365) to Marist’s −0.8 (#218).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
UMBC2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ace Valentine | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 32.7 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 58.6% | 38.1% | 3.5 | 77.0% | 20.2% | |
| 4 | Jah'Likai King | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 32.2 | 14.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 48.3% | 32.2% | 4.7 | 82.5% | 27.1% | |
| 11 | Caden Diggs | F | So | 6'8" | 32-2 | 22.8 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 53.4% | 35.6% | 2.3 | 75.8% | 26.7% | |
| 2 | Josh Odunowo | F | Sr | 6'6" | 30-28 | 23.0 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 53.2% | — | 0.0 | 73.7% | 21.6% | |
| 14 | Jose Roberto Tanchyn | F | Jr | 6'10" | 32-17 | 19.2 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 55.7% | 35.7% | 2.2 | 64.9% | 20.5% | |
| 23 | Riley Jacobs | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-16 | 15.5 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 48.6% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 55.9% | 19.4% | |
| 21 | Cougar Downing | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-0 | 12.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 55.7% | 37.8% | 2.4 | 81.3% | 17.3% | |
| 5 | Daylon Dickerson | F | Jr | 6'6" | 21-4 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 59.4% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 74.5% | 22.1% | |
| 10 | Paul Greene | F | Sr | 6'6" | 20-1 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 45.5% | — | 0.0 | 60.0% | 20.6% | |
| 7 | Tim Eze | F | So | 6'7" | 15-0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 45.8% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 62.5% | 22.1% | |
| 12 | Jake Stout | F | So | 6'7" | 10-0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 0.8 | 100.0% | 21.7% | |
| 13 | Devin Ceaser | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 54.2% | 37.5% | 2.7 | — | 42.3% | |
| 30 | Saahil Thakkar | G | Fr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 0.8 | — | 27.6% | |
| 0 | Regimantas Ciunys | F | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Marist2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jadin Collins-Roberts | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-31 | 30.3 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 47.2% | 23.8% | 1.4 | 80.4% | 18.4% | |
| 1 | Jack Grahamat New Hampshire | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-23 | 28.0 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 50.7% | 32.2% | 5.8 | 66.7% | 25.2% | |
| 5 | Myles Parker | F | So | 6'8" | 31-0 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 59.1% | 38.5% | 2.5 | 78.6% | 19.4% | |
| 21 | Jordan Gabriel | C | So | 6'9" | 25-0 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 45.5% | 21.5% | |
| 25 | Tarik Watson | C | Jr | 6'8" | 10-0 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 44.8% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 35.1% | |
| 23 | Brady MacAdams | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Brandon Arnold | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Cameron Sweeney | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Drew Diaz | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Dywane Chess | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Edward Onyia | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Josh Williams | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Logan Franz | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Logan Rodriguez | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Jack Graham (from New Hampshire)
UMBC2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ace Valentine | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 32.7 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 58.6% | 38.1% | 3.5 | 77.0% | 20.2% | |
| 4 | Jah'Likai King | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 32.2 | 14.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 48.3% | 32.2% | 4.7 | 82.5% | 27.1% | |
| 11 | Caden Diggs | F | So | 6'8" | 32-2 | 22.8 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 53.4% | 35.6% | 2.3 | 75.8% | 26.7% | |
| 2 | Josh Odunowo | F | Sr | 6'6" | 30-28 | 23.0 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 53.2% | — | 0.0 | 73.7% | 21.6% | |
| 14 | Jose Roberto Tanchyn | F | Jr | 6'10" | 32-17 | 19.2 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 55.7% | 35.7% | 2.2 | 64.9% | 20.5% | |
| 23 | Riley Jacobs | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-16 | 15.5 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 48.6% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 55.9% | 19.4% | |
| 21 | Cougar Downing | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-0 | 12.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 55.7% | 37.8% | 2.4 | 81.3% | 17.3% | |
| 5 | Daylon Dickerson | F | Jr | 6'6" | 21-4 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 59.4% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 74.5% | 22.1% | |
| 10 | Paul Greene | F | Sr | 6'6" | 20-1 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 45.5% | — | 0.0 | 60.0% | 20.6% | |
| 7 | Tim Eze | F | So | 6'7" | 15-0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 45.8% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 62.5% | 22.1% | |
| 12 | Jake Stout | F | So | 6'7" | 10-0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 0.8 | 100.0% | 21.7% | |
| 13 | Devin Ceaser | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 54.2% | 37.5% | 2.7 | — | 42.3% | |
| 30 | Saahil Thakkar | G | Fr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 0.8 | — | 27.6% | |
| 0 | Regimantas Ciunys | F | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26UMBC
Against the spread
Season
18-12-1
Home
8-6-1
Road
10-5
Last 10
8-2
avg cover +11.8
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
15-16
Home
7-8
Road
7-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +1.3
Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17 | #16Howard | N | L 83–86 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 142.5 | O169 | 119.2 | 123.5 | 69.6 |
| Mar 14 | Vermont | H | W 74–59 | −1.5 | W+13.5 | 134.5 | U133 | 115.5 | 92.1 | 64.0 |
| Mar 10 | UMass Lowell | H | W 91–69 | −7.0 | W+15.0 | 148.0 | O160 | 134.1 | 101.7 | 67.8 |
| Mar 7 | New Hampshire | H | W 84–69 | −13.0 | W+2.0 | 142.0 | O153 | 129.1 | 106.0 | 65.1 |
| Mar 3 | NJIT | A | W 91–52 | −5.0 | W+34.0 | 142.5 | O143 | 129.9 | 74.2 | 70.1 |
| Feb 28 | UMass Lowell | A | W 84–60 | −2.0 | W+22.0 | 151.5 | U144 | 128.4 | 91.7 | 65.4 |
| Feb 26 | Bryant | H | W 70–58 | −10.0 | W+2.0 | 138.0 | U128 | 110.7 | 91.7 | 63.3 |
| Feb 21 | UAlbany | H | W 66–62 | −6.0 | L−2.0 | 145.0 | U128 | 110.9 | 104.1 | 59.5 |
| Feb 19 | Vermont | H | W 75–62 | +2.0 | W+15.0 | 142.0 | U137 | 111.4 | 92.1 | 67.3 |
| Feb 14 | New Hampshire | A | W 85–63 | −2.0 | W+20.0 | 144.0 | O148 | 123.6 | 91.6 | 68.8 |
Marist
Against the spread
Season
15-14-1
Home
7-6-1
Road
6-8
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −1.6
Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
11-19
Home
4-10
Road
6-8
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −5.5
Under in the last gameOver in 1 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Merrimack | N | L 57–58 | +3.0 | W+2.0 | 128.5 | U115 | 89.2 | 90.7 | 63.9 |
| Mar 7 | Quinnipiac | N | W 77–75 | +2.0 | W+4.0 | 134.5 | O152 | 105.4 | 102.6 | 73.1 |
| Mar 1 | Saint Peter's | H | L 56–63 | −4.0 | L−11.0 | 132.0 | U119 | 87.6 | 98.6 | 63.9 |
| Feb 22 | Sacred Heart | H | W 65–63 | −7.5 | L−5.5 | 146.5 | U128 | 96.0 | 93.1 | 67.7 |
| Feb 20 | Manhattan | A | W 84–70 | −5.0 | W+9.0 | 142.0 | O154 | 131.2 | 109.3 | 64.0 |
| Feb 15 | Siena | H | L 63–67 | −2.0 | L−6.0 | 134.0 | U130 | 96.5 | 102.7 | 65.3 |
| Feb 12 | Merrimack | A | L 56–81 | +2.5 | L−22.5 | 129.5 | O137 | 84.5 | 122.2 | 66.3 |
| Feb 7 | Fairfield | A | L 60–63 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 138.0 | U123 | 98.1 | 103.0 | 61.2 |
| Feb 5 | Rider | H | W 81–52 | −14.0 | W+15.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 137.2 | 88.1 | 59.0 |
| Feb 1 | Niagara | A | W 58–46 | −9.5 | W+2.5 | 130.0 | U104 | 94.8 | 75.2 | 61.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUMBCMarist
Efficiency
109.3
103.6
108.0
102.6
67.5
67.6
—
—
Shooting
54.1%
49.3%
54.1%
49.8%
36.1%
32.2%
76.0%
78.1%
34.1%
25.7%
Ball control & glass
14.0%
16.9%
15.1%
19.5%
24.9%
29.1%
25.8%
28.3%
7.8%
10.0%
6.4%
8.3%
Style
38.8%
34.6%
44.0%
43.6%
12.7%
11.2%
44.8%
58.9%
29.7%
35.5%
Roster
2.89
3.46
6'5.3"
6'3.8"
83.9%
26.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUMBC
Returning minutes: 83.9%Returning production: 82.9%
Lost
- DJ Armstrong Jr. 32.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Regimantas Ciunys no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Marist
Returning minutes: 26.9%Returning production: 25.0%
Lost
- Rhyjon Blackwell 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Menard 29.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Lewis 22.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaden Daughtry 21.0 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Parby Kabamba 16.8 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jason Schofield 14.0 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jack Graham from New Hampshire · 28.0 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
- Cameron Sweeney no D1 minutes last season
- Josh Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Edward Onyia no D1 minutes last season
- Logan Franz no D1 minutes last season
- Logan Rodriguez no D1 minutes last season
Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.