McNeese Cowboys vs Texas State Bobcats basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 22 · 3:30 PM ET · Strahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX

Non-conferenceCWStrahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX

McNeese

2-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #62

Texas St

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #190

Sun, Nov 22 · 3:30 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, McNeese is the faster team (68.2, #261 of 365) and Texas St the slower (62.8, #349). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.8

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.1#280

McNeese

68.2#317

Texas St

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Texas St has the ball+3.4

McNeese has the ball+0.5

Texas St has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 53.1% #137 · MCN allows 51.9% #205+2.3

✓Wins second chancesOR% 32.0% #172 · MCN allows 36.2% #268+1.1

✓Gets to the lineFTR 42.9% #105 · MCN allows 48.6% #291 · FT 71.4% #151+0.9

✗Coughs it upTO% 19.1% #218 · MCN forces 19.1% #134 · ~13 turnovers−0.9

McNeese has the ball

✓Wins second chancesOR% 40.0% #47 · TXST allows 35.7% #262+3.2

✗Coughs it upTO% 16.9% #150 · TXST forces 23.9% #42 · ~14 turnovers−2.3

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 29.0% #265 · TXST allows 27.5% #68 · FT 77.8% #61−0.4

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 55.6% #98 · TXST allows 44.1% #680.0

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

McNeeseoffense vsTexas Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

McNeese shoots

34.3

5.7

18.1

41.9

Texas St allows

41.7

4.2

22.9

31.3

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	69.4%#58	55.0%#134	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.3%#183	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	26.3%#240	45.5%#265	34.7%
Three	40.0%#56	17.6%#6	32.5%

Texas Stoffense vsMcNeesedefense

Share of shots by zone

Texas St shoots

48.9

14.9

10.6

25.5

McNeese allows

34.7

10.2

11.2

43.9

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	47.8%#291	70.6%#311	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	57.1%#53	30.0%#111	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	80.0%#9	45.5%#265	34.7%
Three	30.8%#213	31.3%#153	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

McNeese

−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#207 of 365

Off reb %

40.0%

#47

Def reb %

63.8%

#268

Turnover %

16.9%

#150

Forced TO %

19.1%

#134

FT rate

29.0%

#265

FT allowed

48.6%

#291

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.8

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn−2.2

Foul shots allowed−2.8

Texas St

+6.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#87 of 365

Off reb %

32.0%

#172

Def reb %

64.3%

#262

Turnover %

19.1%

#218

Forced TO %

23.9%

#42

FT rate

42.9%

#105

FT allowed

27.5%

#68

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding−1.4

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers+4.1

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed+2.7

Texas St has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.5 (#87 of 365) to McNeese’s −2.0 (#207).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

McNeese2026-27 numbers · last game: North Texas, Nov 5

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
81	G	So	6'4"	3-3	31.0	33	—	Started last	17.0	2.0	1.0	0.3	90.7%	62.5%	8.0	100.0%	16.9%
6	G	So	6'4"	3-3	27.7	34	—	Started last	23.3	3.7	3.3	2.7	59.6%	36.4%	3.7	93.3%	41.2%
1	G	Jr	6'2"	3-3	26.0	25	—	Started last	4.3	2.7	8.3	1.7	33.3%	20.0%	3.3	75.0%	15.1%
12	G	So	6'4"	3-0	22.7	27	—	Bench	14.0	5.0	2.0	0.3	64.3%	50.0%	5.3	75.0%	26.0%
7	F	So	6'11"	3-2	21.7	27	—	Started last	11.7	6.0	2.7	0.0	53.4%	41.2%	5.7	57.1%	27.1%
21	F	Jr	6'11"	3-2	21.3	21	—	Bench	11.3	5.0	1.0	1.7	73.8%	50.0%	3.3	100.0%	22.8%
11	F	Jr	6'8"	3-0	15.3	6	—	Bench	5.3	3.0	2.3	2.0	100.0%	—	0.0	66.7%	16.1%
23	F	Sr	6'10"	2-2	22.0	27	—	Started last	7.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	42.9%	—	0.0	80.0%	18.6%
24	G	Fr	6'2"	2-0	8.5	—	—	Active	3.0	1.0	1.5	1.5	60.0%	—	0.0	—	22.2%
3	F	Fr	6'9"	2-0	7.5	0	—	Missed last game	3.0	1.5	1.0	0.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	12.6%
2	G	So	5'10"	2-0	6.0	0	—	Missed last game	4.5	2.0	2.5	1.0	64.3%	33.3%	1.5	0.0%	38.5%
14	G	So	6'3"	2-0	3.5	0	—	Missed last game	1.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.1%
0	G	Fr	5'11"	2-0	3.0	—	—	Active	1.5	1.5	0.0	0.0	75.0%	100.0%	0.5	—	16.2%
10	G	Fr	5'11"	2-0	1.5	—	—	Active	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	32.5%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

McNeese

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +3.2

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

2-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

2-0

avg vs total +13.8

Over 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	College of Biblical Studies Ambassadors	H	W 135–87	—	—	—	—	154.9	99.9	87.1
Nov 5	North TexasAdjEM #122	A	L 67–77	−2.0	L−12.0	139.0	O144	102.0	117.2	65.7
Nov 2	UABAdjEM #143	N	W 99–78	−2.5	W+18.5	154.5	O177	140.1	110.3	70.7
Mar 19	#5VanderbiltAdjEM #7	N	L 68–78	+12.0	W+2.0	148.0	U146	106.4	122.1	63.9
Mar 11	SF AustinAdjEM #96	N	W 76–59	−3.5	W+13.5	134.5	O135	119.0	92.4	63.9
Mar 10	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #134	N	W 84–80 3OT	−7.0	L−3.0	141.0	O164	98.4	93.8	85.3
Mar 2	NichollsAdjEM #225	A	W 75–65	−10.0	P0.0	145.0	U140	111.5	96.6	67.3
Feb 28	LSU N OrleansAdjEM #260	A	W 66–63	−10.0	L−7.0	150.5	U129	102.1	97.5	64.6
Feb 23	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #134	H	W 75–68	−12.0	L−5.0	146.0	U143	108.8	98.7	68.9
Feb 21	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #183	H	W 70–54	−14.0	W+2.0	140.5	U124	106.7	82.3	65.6

Texas St

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +1.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

0-1

Home

0-1

Road

0-0

Last 10

0-1

avg vs total −20.5

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 10	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #134	A	W 72–65	−5.5	W+1.5	138.0	U137	—	—	—
Nov 5	Howard Payne Yellow Jackets	H	W 135–66	—	—	—	—	147.9	72.3	91.3
Nov 2	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #183	H	W 67–55	−10.5	W+1.5	142.5	U122	106.7	87.6	62.8
Mar 6	Southern MissAdjEM #219	N	L 77–81	−1.5	L−5.5	140.0	O158	111.5	117.3	69.0
Feb 27	App StateAdjEM #155	H	W 60–57	+1.0	W+4.0	135.0	U117	98.7	93.8	60.8
Feb 21	LouisianaAdjEM #313	A	L 54–67	−3.0	L−16.0	134.0	U121	90.3	112.1	59.8
Feb 19	South AlabamaAdjEM #216	A	W 90–82 OT	+4.0	W+12.0	137.5	O172	123.5	112.6	72.8
Feb 14	UL MonroeAdjEM #350	H	W 95–84	−14.0	L−3.0	149.0	O179	148.1	131.0	64.1
Feb 11	TroyAdjEM #210	H	W 74–62	+5.0	W+17.0	140.5	U136	116.2	97.4	63.7
Feb 7	W MichiganAdjEM #233	H	W 77–61	−6.5	W+9.5	146.5	U138	119.8	94.9	64.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

McNeeseTexas St

Efficiency

114.3

103.2

103.9

105.0

69.1

68.2

2.7

-1.6

Shooting

55.6%

53.1%

52.2%

55.6%

40.0%

30.8%

77.8%

71.4%

29.0%

42.9%

Ball control & glass

16.9%

19.1%

23.9%

40.0%

32.0%

36.2%

35.7%

6.6%

8.0%

2.9%

8.3%

Style

44.4%

26.5%

37.3%

44.8%

16.3%

11.9%

56.9%

54.2%

35.6%

45.8%

Roster

2.39

2.60

6'5.9"

6'5.1"

22.9%

40.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

McNeese

Returning minutes: 30.7%Returning production: 32.5%

Lost

Garwey Dual 26.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
Javohn Garcia 26.2 mpg, 10.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tyshawn Archie 25.6 mpg, 14.3 ppg · transferred to Texas A&M
DJ Richards Jr. 22.0 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jacolb Fredson-Cole 18.7 mpg, 5.5 ppg · transferred to Georgia St
Peitok Machar 12.5 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Corey Chest from Ole Miss · 12.8 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
Dellquan Warren from Mississippi St · 4.5 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
Alier Maluk from Florida St · 4.2 mpg, 1.1 ppg last season
Jaylon Dean-Vines from Vanderbilt · 0.7 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
Elijah Moore from Utah · 0.2 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
Joe DeVall no D1 minutes last season

Returns 31% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Texas St

Returning minutes: 54.2%Returning production: 61.6%

Lost

Kyndall Davis 22.0 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Franck Emmou 21.8 mpg, 7.0 ppg · transferred to Tarleton St
Jalen Bolden 16.3 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tay Knox 14.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Makai Willis 12.8 mpg, 6.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jaelyn Lee 4.3 mpg, 1.5 ppg · transferred to Prairie View

Added

KJ Younger from UNC Greensboro · 28.5 mpg, 15.1 ppg last season
Quel'Ron House from S Illinois · 28.2 mpg, 14.2 ppg last season
Ronald Jessamy from Bakersfield · 25.2 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
Paul Djobet from Omaha · 18.1 mpg, 10.6 ppg last season
Caleb Steger from Boston College · 11.3 mpg, 3.3 ppg last season
King Sanders no D1 minutes last season

Returns 54% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sun, Nov 22

Miami OH vs UIC · 12:00 PM ET
Butler vs Nebraska · 1:00 PM ET
Chicago St at Marquette · 1:00 PM ET
Towson at American · 1:00 PM ET
Fairfield at Long Island · 1:00 PM ET
Dayton vs Northwestern · 1:00 PM ET
W Illinois at Canisius · 1:00 PM ET
San Diego vs Fordham · 2:00 PM ET
William & Mary at Youngstown St · 2:00 PM ET
Evansville at Memphis · 2:00 PM ET
Wyoming vs Duquesne · 2:00 PM ET
UMass Lowell at Cincinnati · 2:00 PM ET
South Dakota vs Utah Tech · 2:00 PM ET
G Washington vs Western KY · 2:00 PM ET
Robert Morris vs New Mexico St · 2:30 PM ET
S Indiana at Texas · 3:00 PM ET
West Florida at South Alabama · 3:00 PM ET
Troy vs Nicholls · 3:00 PM ET
Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma St · 3:30 PM ET
UAlbany vs Mercyhurst · 3:30 PM ET
UC Irvine vs LMU · 4:30 PM ET
IU Indy vs MD Eastern · 4:30 PM ET
Richmond vs Liberty · 4:30 PM ET
NJIT at Boston College · 5:00 PM ET
Fullerton at Portland St · 5:00 PM ET
UNC Asheville at Samford · 5:00 PM ET
Rice vs Lamar · 5:00 PM ET
Utah vs Minnesota · 6:00 PM ET
Southern Miss vs Valparaiso · 6:00 PM ET
CA Baptist vs Portland · 7:00 PM ET
Rhode Island vs UAB · 7:00 PM ET
Delaware at UCLA · 7:00 PM ET
Louisiana at USC · 8:00 PM ET
Seattle U vs UC San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
San José St vs Loyola Chicago · 11:59 PM ET

← Sat, Nov 21 · Mon, Nov 23 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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