George Washington Revolutionaries vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 22 · 2:00 PM ET · Colonial Hall, White Sulphur Springs, WV (neutral site)

Greenbrier Tip-OffNeutral siteNon-conferenceColonial Hall, White Sulphur Springs, WV

G Washington

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #39

Western KY

2-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #131

Sun, Nov 22 · 2:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 74.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Western KY is the faster team (76.4, #50 of 365) and G Washington the slower (69.2, #232). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

74.1

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.8#162

G Washington

73.9#37

Western KY

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Western KY has the ball−9.7

G Washington has the ball+6.7

Western KY has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.4% #175 · GW allows 34.1% #6−8.7

✗Few second chancesOR% 32.1% #171 · GW allows 21.0% #20−2.1

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 13.7% #57 · GW forces 21.0% #88 · ~13 turnovers+0.7

✓Gets to the lineFTR 46.2% #78 · GW allows 30.1% #100 · FT 76.7% #78+0.4

G Washington has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 60.4% #33 · WKU allows 51.7% #201+6.9

✓Gets to the lineFTR 35.1% #198 · WKU allows 44.0% #259 · FT 82.1% #30+1.1

✗Coughs it upTO% 18.1% #182 · WKU forces 19.6% #118 · ~14 turnovers−0.7

✗Few second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · WKU allows 26.4% #92−0.6

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

G Washingtonoffense vsWestern KYdefense

Share of shots by zone

G Washington shoots

50.0

5.7

3.4

40.9

Western KY allows

28.6

1.0

11.2

59.2

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.8%#194	46.4%#48	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	20.0%#275	0.0%#1	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	0.0%#327	45.5%#265	34.7%
Three	45.8%#11	38.2%#292	32.5%

Western KYoffense vsG Washingtondefense

Share of shots by zone

Western KY shoots

54.7

7.5

11.3

26.4

G Washington allows

33.7

9.6

18.1

38.6

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.0%#261	39.3%#16	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.5%#165	25.0%#76	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	50.0%#45	13.3%#39	34.7%
Three	34.2%#143	23.1%#30	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

G Washington

+7.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#75 of 365

Off reb %

33.3%

#135

Def reb %

79.0%

#20

Turnover %

18.1%

#182

Forced TO %

21.0%

#88

FT rate

35.1%

#198

FT allowed

30.1%

#100

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding+3.5

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers+2.1

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Western KY

+6.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#85 of 365

Off reb %

32.1%

#171

Def reb %

73.6%

#92

Turnover %

13.7%

#57

Forced TO %

19.6%

#118

FT rate

46.2%

#78

FT allowed

44.0%

#259

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding+1.7

Ball security+3.2

Forcing turnovers+1.1

Foul shots drawn+2.3

Foul shots allowed−1.6

G Washington has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.8 (#75 of 365) to Western KY’s +6.9 (#85).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

G Washington2026-27 numbers · last game: Hampton, Nov 7

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	G	Sr	6'3"	2-2	24.0	26	—	Started last	13.0	3.0	4.5	1.0	75.0%	50.0%	3.0	84.6%	22.4%
11	F	Sr	6'9"	2-2	23.5	27	—	Started last	11.5	7.5	0.5	1.0	76.9%	—	0.0	100.0%	20.7%
0	G	So	6'6"	2-2	22.0	21	—	Started last	5.0	3.0	3.5	1.5	33.3%	28.6%	3.5	80.0%	19.3%
13	F	Sr	6'8"	2-2	21.5	23	—	Started last	7.5	4.0	2.5	1.5	34.6%	20.0%	2.5	66.7%	27.9%
4	G	Jr	6'6"	2-0	20.5	20	—	Bench	11.0	5.5	0.5	0.0	76.9%	66.7%	4.5	100.0%	20.1%
23	G	Sr	6'6"	2-2	19.0	22	—	Started last	5.5	3.0	1.0	1.5	61.1%	50.0%	3.0	—	18.6%
8	G	Fr	6'2"	2-0	18.0	18	—	Bench	9.5	2.5	2.0	0.0	79.2%	75.0%	2.0	0.0%	20.4%
3	F	So	6'7"	2-0	18.0	18	—	Bench	11.5	2.5	0.0	1.5	63.3%	37.5%	4.0	100.0%	32.6%
21	G	Sr	6'5"	2-0	16.0	14	—	Bench	2.0	1.5	1.0	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	12.8%
19	F	Jr	6'11"	2-0	15.0	13	—	Bench	6.5	8.0	2.0	3.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.5	100.0%	35.1%
10	F	Fr	6'8"	1-0	2.0	—	—	Missed last	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
5	F	Jr	6'9"	1-0	2.0	0	—	Missed last game	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
32	G	Sr	6'0"	1-0	1.0	—	—	Missed last	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	56.9%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

G Washington

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

1-1

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +13.5

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

0-2

Home

0-2

Road

0-0

Last 10

0-2

avg vs total −15.5

Under 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 10	ElonAdjEM #151	H	W 69–50	−13.5	W+5.5	147.0	U119	101.6	73.6	67.9
Nov 7	HamptonAdjEM #273	H	W 75–61	−20.0	L−6.0	147.5	U136	112.0	91.1	66.9
Nov 2	NavyAdjEM #250	H	W 91–39	−19.0	W+33.0	149.5	U130	127.5	54.6	71.4
Mar 22	New MexicoAdjEM #32	A	L 61–86	+7.0	L−18.0	161.5	U147	89.2	125.8	68.4
Mar 18	Utah ValleyAdjEM #94	A	W 79–78	+1.5	W+2.5	153.0	O157	114.5	113.1	69.0
Mar 13	Saint LouisAdjEM #29	N	L 81–88	+6.5	L−0.5	162.5	O169	108.8	118.2	74.4
Mar 12	FordhamAdjEM #163	N	W 66–62	−6.0	L−2.0	141.0	U128	103.5	97.2	63.8
Mar 7	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #181	A	L 62–68	−9.5	L−15.5	148.0	U130	97.4	106.8	63.7
Mar 4	St BonaventureAdjEM #118	H	W 91–82 OT	−7.5	W+1.5	157.0	O173	115.1	103.7	79.1
Feb 27	DaytonAdjEM #99	H	L 66–68	−2.5	L−4.5	152.0	U134	98.7	101.7	66.9

Western KY

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

1-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +0.8

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-1

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +7.5

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 8	Tennessee TechAdjEM #265	A	L 94–97	−3.0	L−6.0	164.0	O191	111.3	114.9	84.5
Nov 5	Kentucky Wesleyan Panthers	H	W 82–48	—	—	—	—	116.5	68.2	70.4
Nov 2	Morehead StAdjEM #336	H	W 83–58	−17.5	W+7.5	153.0	U141	121.3	84.8	68.4
Mar 12	Kennesaw StAdjEM #153	N	L 87–96	−1.0	L−10.0	159.5	O183	113.0	124.6	77.0
Mar 7	FIUAdjEM #191	A	L 67–92	−1.0	L−26.0	160.0	U159	91.5	125.7	73.2
Mar 5	Missouri StAdjEM #188	A	L 74–87	−1.0	L−14.0	152.5	O161	111.3	130.9	66.5
Feb 28	UTEPAdjEM #243	H	W 97–65	−9.0	W+23.0	146.5	O162	134.7	90.2	72.0
Feb 26	New Mexico StAdjEM #231	H	W 93–70	−5.5	W+17.5	151.5	O163	117.8	88.7	78.9
Feb 21	LibertyAdjEM #145	A	W 94–73	+7.5	W+28.5	149.0	O167	135.5	105.3	69.3
Feb 18	DelawareAdjEM #258	A	W 88–87 OT	−4.0	L−3.0	139.5	O175	126.7	125.3	69.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

G WashingtonWestern KY

Efficiency

113.3

106.6

99.1

104.3

70.8

73.9

-6.0

-9.7

Shooting

60.4%

50.4%

54.0%

50.0%

45.8%

34.2%

82.1%

76.7%

35.1%

46.2%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

13.7%

21.0%

19.6%

33.3%

32.1%

21.0%

26.4%

9.4%

5.2%

12.7%

8.7%

Style

43.2%

29.2%

41.0%

45.2%

17.5%

16.9%

62.5%

47.5%

45.0%

42.3%

Roster

3.13

2.68

6'6.2"

6'5.5"

12.2%

34.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

G Washington

Returning minutes: 12.2%Returning production: 12.6%

Lost

Trey Autry 27.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Wisconsin
Christian Jones 25.6 mpg, 9.7 ppg · transferred to Murray St
Rafael Castro 22.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tyrone Marshall Jr. 22.2 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tre Dinkins 21.1 mpg, 8.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Garrett Johnson 18.7 mpg, 9.5 ppg · transferred to South Florida

Added

Andrew Phillips from Lafayette · 33.4 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
Omari Witherspoon from Pitt · 27.8 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season
Aidan Shaw from Boston College · 25.5 mpg, 4.5 ppg last season
Dylan James from Georgia · 15.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg last season
Terrance Arceneaux from NC State · 14.0 mpg, 3.4 ppg last season
Felix Kossaras from Colorado · 13.9 mpg, 3.9 ppg last season

Returns 12% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Western KY

Returning minutes: 38.0%Returning production: 44.4%

Lost

Grant Newell 25.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ryan Myers 22.5 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Terrion Murdix 17.9 mpg, 4.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Blaise Keita 12.5 mpg, 2.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Cam Haffner 11.0 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Oral Roberts
Leeroy Odiahi 9.4 mpg, 2.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Noah Norgaard from UNC Greensboro · 25.1 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
Emondrek Erkins-Ford from Jax State · 21.5 mpg, 8.3 ppg last season
Sharron Young from Akron · 18.6 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season
EJ Walker from South Carolina · 10.9 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
Joseph Adebayo no D1 minutes last season
Moussa Konare no D1 minutes last season

Returns 38% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sun, Nov 22

Miami OH vs UIC · 12:00 PM ET
Butler vs Nebraska · 1:00 PM ET
Chicago St at Marquette · 1:00 PM ET
Towson at American · 1:00 PM ET
Fairfield at Long Island · 1:00 PM ET
Dayton vs Northwestern · 1:00 PM ET
W Illinois at Canisius · 1:00 PM ET
San Diego vs Fordham · 2:00 PM ET
William & Mary at Youngstown St · 2:00 PM ET
Evansville at Memphis · 2:00 PM ET
Wyoming vs Duquesne · 2:00 PM ET
UMass Lowell at Cincinnati · 2:00 PM ET
South Dakota vs Utah Tech · 2:00 PM ET
Robert Morris vs New Mexico St · 2:30 PM ET
S Indiana at Texas · 3:00 PM ET
West Florida at South Alabama · 3:00 PM ET
Troy vs Nicholls · 3:00 PM ET
Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma St · 3:30 PM ET
UAlbany vs Mercyhurst · 3:30 PM ET
McNeese at Texas St · 3:30 PM ET
UC Irvine vs LMU · 4:30 PM ET
IU Indy vs MD Eastern · 4:30 PM ET
Richmond vs Liberty · 4:30 PM ET
NJIT at Boston College · 5:00 PM ET
Fullerton at Portland St · 5:00 PM ET
UNC Asheville at Samford · 5:00 PM ET
Rice vs Lamar · 5:00 PM ET
Utah vs Minnesota · 6:00 PM ET
Southern Miss vs Valparaiso · 6:00 PM ET
CA Baptist vs Portland · 7:00 PM ET
Rhode Island vs UAB · 7:00 PM ET
Delaware at UCLA · 7:00 PM ET
Louisiana at USC · 8:00 PM ET
Seattle U vs UC San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
San José St vs Loyola Chicago · 11:59 PM ET

← Sat, Nov 21 · Mon, Nov 23 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.