CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMitchell Center, Mobile, AL

West Florida

Efficiency #352

Record unknown

South Alabama

Efficiency #188

2025-26: 21-12 · 11-8 conf

Fri, Nov 20 · TBD

65.0

win 13%

Projected

78.0

win 87%

No line posted yet.

Model: USA −13.0 · total 143.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: South Alabama 66.5, West Florida 68.3 → 66.5 possessions

−3.9

South Alabama offense vs West Florida defense

+3.9

West Florida offense vs South Alabama defense

−5.2

Projected total

143.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

South Alabama offense vs West Florida defense

+3.9

West Florida offense vs South Alabama defense

+5.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

South Alabama by 13.0

13.0

West Florida side ◂▸ South Alabama side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +12.9 against +13.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Alabama.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo.

Projected possessions

66.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.0

model

Projected team totals

65.0 / 78.0

West Florida / South Alabama

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.3#183

West Florida

66.5#320

South Alabama

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

South Alabama

+5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#25 of 365

Off reb %

25.0%

#341

Def reb %

68.6%

#222

Turnover %

13.0%

Forced TO %

18.1%

#92

FT rate

38.5%

#89

FT allowed

25.4%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+2.6

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn+0.9

Foul shots allowed+2.5

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

West Florida2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted West Florida's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	eFG%	3P%	FT%	Usage
—	Team	ATH	—	—	0-0	—	—	—	—
14	Brandon Burford	PG	So	6'2"	0-0	—	—	—	—
34	Conor Flanagan	G	So	6'8"	0-0	—	—	—	—
1	Darrin Jenkins	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	—	—	—	—
11	David Petit-Homme	F	Jr	6'7"	0-0	—	—	—	—
42	Jackson Henningfield	G	Sr	6'9"	0-0	—	—	—	—
2	Kendall Bynum	PG	Fr	6'1"	0-0	—	—	—	—
3	LaTrell Tate	G	So	6'0"	0-0	—	—	—	—
5	Michael Maumbe	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	—	—	—	—
10	Rodney Bryant	PG	Fr	6'0"	0-0	—	—	—	—
—	Rodney Bryant Jr	ATH	—	—	0-0	—	—	—	—
4	Wendell Matthews	F	Jr	6'6"	0-0	—	—	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

South Alabama2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Chaze Harris	G	Sr	6'6"	33-33	31.8	19.2	4.8	4.9	3.2	54.0%	15.4%	0.8	59.2%	39.1%
1	Jayden Cooper	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	30.0	11.3	2.6	1.0	0.8	49.5%	34.0%	4.9	66.2%	23.9%
34	Randy Brady	F	Sr	6'5"	33-33	26.9	5.5	5.7	1.9	1.0	53.8%	35.0%	1.8	63.9%	13.2%
4	Hantz Louis-Jeune	G	Sr	6'5"	33-22	23.5	5.1	2.9	0.5	0.3	44.9%	28.6%	3.4	74.3%	14.3%
3	Stephen Williams	F	So	6'9"	33-1	15.8	6.4	4.7	0.2	0.3	65.7%	—	0.0	65.4%	19.6%
14	John Broom	G	So	6'5"	30-2	15.7	2.3	2.8	0.4	0.2	55.1%	35.1%	1.2	80.0%	8.7%
6	JJ Wheat	G	Sr	6'0"	33-0	13.4	3.6	1.5	1.2	0.8	51.1%	46.2%	0.4	46.2%	19.3%
9	Peyton Law	F	Sr	6'7"	10-10	25.5	12.8	5.9	1.0	0.9	64.7%	0.0%	0.1	75.0%	24.8%
7	Brian Hawthorne	G	Jr	6'2"	19-0	10.8	2.8	1.6	1.1	0.8	35.3%	33.3%	0.6	68.0%	22.9%
10	Maxwell Land	G	Sr	6'4"	4-0	1.8	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.3	75.0%	50.0%	0.5	—	25.2%
8	Desmond Williams	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Samuel Shoptaw	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

West Florida2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted West Florida's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	eFG%	3P%	FT%	Usage
—	Team	ATH	—	—	0-0	—	—	—	—
14	Brandon Burford	PG	So	6'2"	0-0	—	—	—	—
34	Conor Flanagan	G	So	6'8"	0-0	—	—	—	—
1	Darrin Jenkins	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	—	—	—	—
11	David Petit-Homme	F	Jr	6'7"	0-0	—	—	—	—
42	Jackson Henningfield	G	Sr	6'9"	0-0	—	—	—	—
2	Kendall Bynum	PG	Fr	6'1"	0-0	—	—	—	—
3	LaTrell Tate	G	So	6'0"	0-0	—	—	—	—
5	Michael Maumbe	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	—	—	—	—
10	Rodney Bryant	PG	Fr	6'0"	0-0	—	—	—	—
—	Rodney Bryant Jr	ATH	—	—	0-0	—	—	—	—
4	Wendell Matthews	F	Jr	6'6"	0-0	—	—	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

West Florida

No completed games yet.

South Alabama

Against the spread

Season

17-13-1

Home

6-6

Road

10-4-1

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.9

Covered the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-14

Home

5-7

Road

9-6

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +7.8

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	AuburnAdjEM #41	A	L 67–78	+18.0	W+7.0	153.0	U145	104.4	121.6	64.2
Mar 6	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	N	L 85–94	−4.5	L−13.5	148.5	O179	126.5	139.9	67.2
Feb 27	Southern MissAdjEM #218	H	L 55–68	−4.0	L−17.0	142.0	U123	85.0	105.1	64.7
Feb 25	UL MonroeAdjEM #351	H	W 89–54	−14.5	W+20.5	153.5	U143	132.3	80.3	67.3
Feb 21	TroyAdjEM #136	H	W 65–54	+2.5	W+13.5	143.0	U119	111.0	92.2	58.5
Feb 19	Texas StAdjEM #249	H	L 82–90 OT	−4.0	L−12.0	137.5	O172	112.6	123.5	72.8
Feb 16	MarshallAdjEM #175	A	L 80–84	+5.5	W+1.5	151.0	O164	123.6	129.8	64.7
Feb 14	Arkansas StAdjEM #132	A	W 92–88 OT	+7.5	W+11.5	150.0	O180	120.6	115.3	76.3
Feb 12	Southern MissAdjEM #218	A	W 84–78	+1.0	W+7.0	136.0	O162	112.1	104.1	74.9
Feb 7	BuffaloAdjEM #186	H	W 81–69	−2.0	W+10.0	145.0	O150	116.3	99.1	69.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

West FloridaSouth Alabama

Efficiency

100.8

107.5

115.4

108.3

68.3

66.5

—

Shooting

—

52.6%

—

53.2%

—

34.5%

—

65.5%

—

38.5%

Ball control & glass

—

13.0%

—

18.1%

—

25.0%

—

31.4%

—

8.3%

—

11.3%

Style

—

36.5%

—

47.3%

—

13.8%

—

45.9%

—

25.6%

Roster

—

3.43

—

6'4.6"

—

83.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

West Florida

Returning minutes: —Returning production: —

ESPN hasn't posted West Florida's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

New to Division I this season -- no returning-minutes baseline.

South Alabama

Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 83.6%

Lost

Adam Olsen 33.8 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn

Added

Samuel Shoptaw no D1 minutes last season
Desmond Williams no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.