Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs USC Trojans basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 22 · 8:00 PM ET · Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA

Non-conferenceB1G+Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA
Louisiana
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #313
@
21USC
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #74
Sun, Nov 22 · 8:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, USC is the faster team (77.4, #35 of 365) and Louisiana the slower (66.7, #300). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.5
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.5#337
Louisiana
74.5#21
USC

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
USC has the ball+6.6
Louisiana has the ball−11.6
USC has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 56.3% #82 · UL allows 54.3% #244+5.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 55.5% #23 · UL allows 59.1% #337 · FT 81.8% #31+2.7
✗Coughs it upTO% 15.5% #97 · UL forces 24.7% #31 · ~15 turnovers−2.3
✓Wins second chancesOR% 28.6% #233 · UL allows 38.2% #295+0.5
Louisiana has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 36.9% #345 · USC allows 48.7% #145−8.7
✗Few second chancesOR% 21.0% #329 · USC allows 31.2% #177−3.3
✓Gets to the lineFTR 45.0% #90 · USC allows 44.0% #259 · FT 78.0% #60+1.2
✗Coughs it upTO% 13.5% #53 · USC forces 23.9% #41 · ~14 turnovers−0.8

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
Louisianaoffense vs#21USCdefense
Share of shots by zone
Louisiana shoots
USC allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim39.4%#34351.5%#9458.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)18.2%#29450.0%#24338.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)13.3%#31430.8%#13834.7%
Three33.3%#15835.7%#24832.5%
#21USCoffense vsLouisianadefense
Share of shots by zone
USC shoots
Louisiana allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim70.7%#4356.1%#15258.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)57.1%#5350.0%#24338.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.3%#17440.0%#21234.7%
Three38.9%#7235.7%#24832.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
Louisiana
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#192 of 365
Off reb %
21.0%
#329
Def reb %
61.8%
#295
Turnover %
13.5%
#53
Forced TO %
24.7%
#31
FT rate
45.0%
#90
FT allowed
59.1%
#337
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.5
Defensive rebounding−2.2
Ball security+3.4
Forcing turnovers+4.7
Foul shots drawn+2.0
Foul shots allowed−5.5
#21USC
+8.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#68 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#233
Def reb %
68.8%
#177
Turnover %
15.5%
#97
Forced TO %
23.9%
#41
FT rate
55.5%
#23
FT allowed
44.0%
#259
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+1.9
Forcing turnovers+4.2
Foul shots drawn+4.7
Foul shots allowed−1.6

USC has more extra scoring chances per game: +8.4 (#68 of 365) to Louisiana’s −1.1 (#192).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not
Louisiana2026-27 numbers · last game: Texas A&M-CC, Nov 6
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGMin/40, last 8Last 3 vs beforeStatusPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%Usage
14GJr6'3"3-336.036—Started last20.34.72.01.043.4%31.3%10.788.2%34.1%
3GSr6'0"3-229.327—Started last8.72.33.31.330.8%25.0%2.790.0%17.3%
6GJr6'3"3-228.034—Bench7.02.01.71.735.2%33.3%5.050.0%23.2%
11FSr6'8"2-225.021—Started last10.55.50.51.031.0%20.0%2.572.7%33.1%
0FJr6'10"3-316.020—Started last2.32.30.31.316.7%—0.055.6%17.1%
56FFr6'10"3-016.03—Bench3.33.31.01.333.3%0.0%0.766.7%16.7%
4GFr5'9"2-022.518—Bench4.52.00.52.020.8%20.0%2.5100.0%22.7%
5FSr6'7"2-021.019—Bench0.01.01.50.00.0%0.0%2.0—7.0%
1GSr6'3"2-218.56—Started last8.04.00.01.047.1%57.1%3.5—29.8%
8FSo6'8"3-19.315—Bench0.72.70.70.325.0%0.0%0.30.0%12.3%
12FFr6'6"3-07.31—Bench0.73.30.30.720.0%0.0%1.3—17.6%
22GSo6'3"1-01.0——Active2.00.00.00.0——0.0100.0%52.1%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Louisiana#21USC
Efficiency
97.2
110.4
108.3
101.8
67.5
74.5
4.5
-1.1
Shooting
36.9%
56.3%
27.0%
55.4%
33.3%
38.9%
78.0%
81.8%
45.0%
55.5%
Ball control & glass
13.5%
15.5%
24.7%
23.9%
21.0%
28.6%
38.2%
31.2%
3.7%
9.7%
9.5%
3.6%
Style
43.2%
30.3%
26.4%
40.4%
6.6%
16.5%
72.7%
65.0%
39.3%
32.7%
Roster
2.93
2.71
6'4.3"
6'7.3"
21.4%
24.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Louisiana
Returning minutes: 29.6%Returning production: 31.4%
Lost
  • Dorian Finister 30.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg · transferred to Charlotte
  • Jaxon Olvera 29.2 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Portland
  • Milan Mejia 19.4 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Dariyus Woodson 18.8 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Karris Bilal 13.2 mpg, 3.5 ppg · transferred to Texas Southern
  • Joshua Lewis 12.3 mpg, 4.4 ppg · transferred to South Florida
Added
  • Mekhi Cooper from Lindenwood · 29.9 mpg, 6.4 ppg last season
  • Trent Middleton Jr. from NC A&T · 28.6 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
  • Josiah Harris from Cleveland St · 17.8 mpg, 6.0 ppg last season
  • Dani Pounds from Tennessee Tech · 16.5 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
  • Tyshawn Duncan no D1 minutes last season
  • Derrick Florence III no D1 minutes last season

Returns 30% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

#21USC
Returning minutes: 24.0%Returning production: 25.0%
Lost
  • Ezra Ausar 29.8 mpg, 14.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chad Baker-Mazara 24.1 mpg, 15.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kam Woods 19.6 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jordan Marsh 16.0 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Temple
  • Jerry Easter II 15.7 mpg, 4.0 ppg · transferred to Oregon
  • Terrance Williams II 12.9 mpg, 2.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Jalen Cox from Colgate · 32.1 mpg, 16.8 ppg last season
  • Jadis Jones from Lindenwood · 27.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
  • Joshua Hughes from Evansville · 27.6 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
  • KJ Lewis from Georgetown · 24.7 mpg, 12.2 ppg last season
  • Isaac Bruns from South Dakota · 19.3 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
  • Aaron Hunkin-Claytor from Hawai'i · 14.5 mpg, 3.1 ppg last season

Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sun, Nov 22

← Sat, Nov 21 · Mon, Nov 23 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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