CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteCredit Union 1 Arena, Chicago, ILBad Boy Mowers Series

Butler

Efficiency #87

2025-26: 16-16 · 7-14 conf

Nebraska

Efficiency #17

2025-26: 28-7 · 15-6 conf

Sun, Nov 22 · TBD

70.1

win 26%

Projected

77.8

win 74%

No line posted yet.

Model: NEB −7.6 · total 147.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Nebraska 67.7, Butler 69.3 → 68.8 possessions

+0.9

Nebraska offense vs Butler defense

+3.2

Butler offense vs Nebraska defense

−4.4

Projected total

147.9

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Nebraska offense vs Butler defense

+3.2

Butler offense vs Nebraska defense

+4.4

Nebraska by 7.6

7.6

Butler side ◂▸ Nebraska side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Nebraska.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Butler is the faster team (70.0, #95 of 365) and Nebraska the slower (66.8, #252). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.9

model

Projected team totals

70.1 / 77.8

Butler / Nebraska

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.3#97

Butler

67.7#228

Nebraska

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageNebraska

Where Nebraska scores: shooting

Nebraska shoots an effective 55.5% (#28); Butler allows 51.9% (#208). Expect about 54.1%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversNebraska

Nebraska protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.4% is worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions for Nebraska's offense.

ClashButler

Style match: ball movement

Butler assists on 57.2% of its made baskets; Nebraska allows assists on 61.1% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.2% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageButler

Where Butler struggles: shooting

Butler shoots an effective 50.9% (#199); Nebraska allows 48.1% (#40). Expect about 49.4%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Nebraska's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Butler at about 42.7% of its shots from three, Nebraska about 47.5%.

GlassNebraska

Nebraska gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.6% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Nebraska's offense.

Butler has the ball

OffenseNebraska allowsvs D1 avg

50.9% #199

48.1% #40

-2.6 pt/100

15.9% #132

18.9% #54

-1.1 pt/100

34.6% #58

27.4% #47

+0.9 pt/100

42.1% #29

25.1% #7

-0.3 pt/100

71.9% #210

—

-0.0 pt/100

Butler net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100

Nebraska has the ball

OffenseButler allowsvs D1 avg

55.5% #28

51.9% #208

+4.0 pt/100

14.4% #40

15.1% #275

+2.9 pt/100

26.7% #306

30.0% #163

-1.7 pt/100

26.2% #356

24.9% #6

-1.3 pt/100

75.5% #64

—

+0.3 pt/100

Nebraska net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Butleroffense vsNebraskadefense

Share of shots by zone

Butler shoots

45.1

6.1

14.4

34.3

Nebraska allows

23.8

5.7

19.3

51.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.3%#216	64.2%#342	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.2%#265	40.6%#202	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.9%#225	35.0%#76	38.0%
Three	32.7%#242	30.5%#19	33.7%

Nebraskaoffense vsButlerdefense

Share of shots by zone

Nebraska shoots

31.8

5.5

11.3

51.3

Butler allows

38.3

7.0

16.9

37.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	68.2%#4	62.3%#305	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.6%#253	47.7%#337	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.1%#288	33.6%#39	38.0%
Three	35.5%#91	33.3%#141	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Butler

+5.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#16 of 365

Off reb %

34.6%

#58

Def reb %

70.0%

#163

Turnover %

15.9%

#132

Forced TO %

15.1%

#275

FT rate

42.1%

#29

FT allowed

24.9%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+2.7

Nebraska

+3.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#49 of 365

Off reb %

26.7%

#306

Def reb %

72.6%

#47

Turnover %

14.4%

#40

Forced TO %

18.9%

#54

FT rate

26.2%

#356

FT allowed

25.1%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding+1.0

Ball security+1.6

Forcing turnovers+1.5

Foul shots drawn−2.3

Foul shots allowed+2.6

Butler has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.5 (#16 of 365) to Nebraska’s +3.3 (#49).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Butler2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Finley Bizjack	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	34.0	17.1	2.2	2.5	1.7	51.4%	34.9%	6.3	85.0%	27.9%
7	Jamie Kaiser Jr.	G	So	6'6"	30-29	29.0	9.5	4.3	1.0	0.7	52.4%	34.5%	3.9	75.8%	18.3%
21	Yohan Traore	F	Sr	6'11"	32-0	19.6	8.3	3.0	0.8	0.6	55.5%	20.0%	0.5	70.9%	21.8%
13	Drayton Jones	C	Jr	6'11"	32-32	19.5	6.3	4.6	1.4	0.7	58.6%	0.0%	0.0	72.0%	16.9%
1	Evan Haywood	G	So	6'4"	29-3	19.4	7.2	1.9	1.2	0.4	49.7%	35.9%	5.3	75.0%	22.1%
8	Yame Butler	G	Sr	6'5"	31-2	13.6	4.2	1.2	1.4	0.7	50.5%	28.9%	1.2	74.3%	18.9%
4	Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor	F	Fr	6'6"	25-10	16.4	5.0	2.2	2.0	1.4	41.9%	10.5%	0.8	62.1%	24.0%
23	Azavier Robinson	G	Fr	6'2"	22-15	18.3	6.1	1.9	2.5	1.9	53.5%	43.3%	1.4	71.1%	22.6%
0	Jackson Keith	F	Fr	6'5"	26-0	8.6	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	50.0%	29.4%	0.7	57.1%	13.6%
2	Jalen Jackson	G	Sr	6'2"	6-6	22.5	9.5	3.5	3.8	3.0	53.5%	40.0%	0.8	57.9%	27.6%
6	Jack McCaffery	F	Fr	6'9"	9-0	9.6	2.8	1.6	0.4	0.4	47.5%	21.4%	1.6	75.0%	17.3%
3	Ethan McComb	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.7%
35	Bryson Cardinal	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
39	Kevin Ndzie	C	Jr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Nebraska2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Pryce Sandfort	F	Jr	6'7"	35-35	33.6	18.1	4.9	2.0	0.7	62.1%	41.6%	8.9	85.5%	26.5%
10	Jamarques Lawrence	G	Sr	6'3"	35-35	27.9	9.8	2.4	3.8	2.0	52.2%	35.5%	4.4	75.6%	23.2%
9	Berke Buyuktuncel	F	Jr	6'10"	33-33	24.3	6.5	5.6	1.9	1.2	50.6%	24.1%	1.6	61.2%	18.3%
5	Braden Frager	F	Fr	6'7"	33-2	23.7	11.8	3.8	1.0	1.0	59.1%	35.2%	4.9	80.5%	26.8%
31	Cale Jacobsen	G	Jr	6'4"	35-1	19.7	4.6	2.9	1.3	0.6	58.5%	36.6%	1.2	59.5%	13.9%
15	Jared Garcia	F	Sr	6'8"	28-0	8.3	3.0	2.1	0.3	0.7	39.2%	24.4%	1.5	77.8%	28.7%
0	Connor Essegian	G	Sr	6'4"	7-0	13.9	5.4	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	25.8%	4.4	50.0%	28.9%
2	Kendall Blue	G	Sr	6'6"	19-0	3.5	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.4	42.3%	37.5%	0.4	100.0%	18.6%
33	Leo Curtis	F	Fr	7'1"	15-0	4.2	1.8	0.6	0.3	0.3	58.8%	0.0%	0.2	87.5%	24.0%
7	Justin Bolis	F	So	6'8"	14-0	1.8	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	13.9%
13	Ugnius Jarusevicius	F	Sr	6'11"	1-0	11.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	116.7%	100.0%	1.0	0.0%	28.6%
35	Henry Burt	F	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Quentin Rhymes	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Will Cooper	F	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Butler2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Finley Bizjack	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	34.0	17.1	2.2	2.5	1.7	51.4%	34.9%	6.3	85.0%	27.9%
7	Jamie Kaiser Jr.	G	So	6'6"	30-29	29.0	9.5	4.3	1.0	0.7	52.4%	34.5%	3.9	75.8%	18.3%
21	Yohan Traore	F	Sr	6'11"	32-0	19.6	8.3	3.0	0.8	0.6	55.5%	20.0%	0.5	70.9%	21.8%
13	Drayton Jones	C	Jr	6'11"	32-32	19.5	6.3	4.6	1.4	0.7	58.6%	0.0%	0.0	72.0%	16.9%
1	Evan Haywood	G	So	6'4"	29-3	19.4	7.2	1.9	1.2	0.4	49.7%	35.9%	5.3	75.0%	22.1%
8	Yame Butler	G	Sr	6'5"	31-2	13.6	4.2	1.2	1.4	0.7	50.5%	28.9%	1.2	74.3%	18.9%
4	Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor	F	Fr	6'6"	25-10	16.4	5.0	2.2	2.0	1.4	41.9%	10.5%	0.8	62.1%	24.0%
23	Azavier Robinson	G	Fr	6'2"	22-15	18.3	6.1	1.9	2.5	1.9	53.5%	43.3%	1.4	71.1%	22.6%
0	Jackson Keith	F	Fr	6'5"	26-0	8.6	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	50.0%	29.4%	0.7	57.1%	13.6%
2	Jalen Jackson	G	Sr	6'2"	6-6	22.5	9.5	3.5	3.8	3.0	53.5%	40.0%	0.8	57.9%	27.6%
6	Jack McCaffery	F	Fr	6'9"	9-0	9.6	2.8	1.6	0.4	0.4	47.5%	21.4%	1.6	75.0%	17.3%
3	Ethan McComb	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.7%
35	Bryson Cardinal	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
39	Kevin Ndzie	C	Jr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Butler

Against the spread

Season

16-15-1

Home

8-8-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-12-1

Home

9-7-1

Road

8-3

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +0.9

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	N	L 81–91	+2.0	L−8.0	162.5	O172	111.6	125.4	72.6
Mar 7	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 81–71	+4.0	W+14.0	142.5	O152	110.4	96.8	73.4
Mar 4	CreightonAdjEM #92	H	L 59–76	−2.5	L−19.5	155.5	U135	83.4	107.4	70.8
Feb 25	VillanovaAdjEM #40	A	L 73–82	+10.5	W+1.5	147.0	O155	103.9	116.7	70.2
Feb 21	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 80–75	−4.5	W+0.5	159.5	U155	117.7	110.4	67.9
Feb 18	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	W 93–89	+6.0	W+10.0	147.0	O182	136.4	130.5	68.2
Feb 15	Seton HallAdjEM #56	H	L 56–63	+4.0	L−3.0	138.5	U119	83.6	94.1	67.0
Feb 11	#6UConnAdjEM #10	H	L 70–80	+11.5	W+1.5	143.5	O150	115.8	132.4	60.4
Feb 7	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	L 55–70	+3.5	L−11.5	155.5	U125	82.2	104.6	66.9
Feb 4	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	L 87–97 2OT	+3.0	L−7.0	168.5	O184	110.4	123.0	78.8

Nebraska

Against the spread

Season

19-15-1

Home

8-9-1

Road

7-3

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-23

Home

4-14

Road

4-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −4.5

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 26	#9IowaAdjEM #22	N	L 71–77	−1.5	L−7.5	131.0	O148	117.4	127.4	60.5
Mar 21	#5VanderbiltAdjEM #12	N	W 74–72	+2.0	W+4.0	147.5	U146	115.8	112.7	63.9
Mar 19	#13TroyAdjEM #136	N	W 76–47	−13.0	W+16.0	139.5	U123	125.1	77.4	60.8
Mar 13	#18PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 58–74	+4.5	L−11.5	146.0	U132	95.9	122.4	60.5
Mar 8	IowaAdjEM #22	H	W 84–75 OT	−5.0	W+4.0	136.5	O159	112.8	100.7	74.5
Mar 3	UCLAAdjEM #37	A	L 52–72	−1.0	L−21.0	144.5	U124	85.7	118.7	60.6
Feb 28	USCAdjEM #97	A	W 82–67	−5.0	W+10.0	148.5	O149	119.1	97.3	68.8
Feb 25	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	W 74–61	−16.5	L−3.5	141.0	U135	116.4	95.9	63.6
Feb 21	Penn StateAdjEM #194	H	W 87–64	−17.5	W+5.5	147.5	O151	125.4	92.2	69.4
Feb 17	IowaAdjEM #22	A	L 52–57	+1.0	L−4.0	139.5	U109	86.5	94.8	60.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ButlerNebraska

Efficiency

112.2

114.2

107.4

98.3

69.3

67.7

—

Shooting

50.9%

55.5%

51.9%

58.0%

32.7%

35.5%

71.9%

75.5%

42.1%

26.2%

Ball control & glass

15.9%

14.4%

15.1%

18.9%

34.6%

26.7%

30.0%

27.4%

9.5%

7.6%

11.9%

9.1%

Style

34.9%

51.1%

46.6%

40.1%

15.0%

8.1%

57.2%

65.9%

32.1%

26.7%

Roster

2.54

2.93

6'6.1"

6'6.3"

83.4%

69.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Butler

Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.3%

Lost

Michael Ajayi 33.6 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Bryson Cardinal no D1 minutes last season
Kevin Ndzie no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Nebraska

Returning minutes: 69.8%Returning production: 67.0%

Lost

Sam Hoiberg 32.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Rienk Mast 28.5 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Quentin Rhymes no D1 minutes last season
Henry Burt no D1 minutes last season
Will Cooper no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 70% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.