CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteKoessler Athletic Center, Buffalo, NYQueen City Classic

UAlbany

Efficiency #306

2025-26: 11-21 · 7-10 conf

Mercyhurst

Efficiency #261

2025-26: 17-17 · 12-9 conf

Sun, Nov 22 · TBD

68.9

win 44%

Projected

70.8

win 56%

No line posted yet.

Model: MERC −1.9 · total 139.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Mercyhurst 66.5, UAlbany 67.0 → 65.1 possessions

−6.9

Mercyhurst offense vs UAlbany defense

+0.1

UAlbany offense vs Mercyhurst defense

−1.7

Projected total

139.7

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Mercyhurst offense vs UAlbany defense

+0.1

UAlbany offense vs Mercyhurst defense

+1.7

Mercyhurst by 1.9

1.9

UAlbany side ◂▸ Mercyhurst side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +1.8 against +1.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Mercyhurst.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UAlbany is the faster team (65.6, #311 of 365) and Mercyhurst the slower (64.6, #338). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

139.7

model

Projected team totals

68.9 / 70.8

UAlbany / Mercyhurst

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.0#291

UAlbany

66.5#321

Mercyhurst

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Mercyhurst averages 64.6 possessions per 40, UAlbany 65.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageUAlbany

Where UAlbany struggles: ball control

UAlbany turns it over on 18.5% of possessions (#300); Mercyhurst forces turnovers on 18.7% of opponent possessions (#64). Expect about 19.0%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageMercyhurst

Where Mercyhurst scores: ball control

Mercyhurst turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#32); UAlbany forces turnovers on 15.8% of opponent possessions (#230). Expect about 14.7%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashUAlbany

Style match: paint scoring

UAlbany scores 49.5% of its points in the paint; Mercyhurst gives up 47.1% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.9% — both habits push the same way.

ClashMercyhurst

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

Mercyhurst (#5 in shot-blocking exposure) against UAlbany (#57 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 9.7%. Historically UAlbany's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

UAlbany has the ball

OffenseMercyhurst allowsvs D1 avg

51.3% #182

50.1% #107

-0.8 pt/100

18.5% #300

18.7% #64

-2.7 pt/100

32.7% #99

29.9% #153

+0.8 pt/100

24.9% #364

42.6% #332

-0.1 pt/100

65.9% #354

—

-0.6 pt/100

UAlbany net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.3 pts/100

Mercyhurst has the ball

OffenseUAlbany allowsvs D1 avg

49.5% #269

53.2% #275

-0.1 pt/100

14.3% #32

15.8% #230

+2.5 pt/100

26.4% #312

32.4% #277

-1.1 pt/100

25.6% #361

35.7% #202

-0.5 pt/100

74.1% #129

—

+0.1 pt/100

Mercyhurst net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UAlbanyoffense vsMercyhurstdefense

Share of shots by zone

UAlbany shoots

42.2

6.8

13.1

37.9

Mercyhurst allows

43.4

8.0

14.4

34.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#228	57.8%#141	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	49.0%#14	42.7%#245	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.9%#146	33.3%#35	38.0%
Three	32.6%#248	32.3%#80	33.7%

Mercyhurstoffense vsUAlbanydefense

Share of shots by zone

Mercyhurst shoots

33.8

11.3

23.5

31.3

UAlbany allows

40.4

5.2

13.7

40.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.5%#256	56.9%#110	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.7%#16	41.3%#219	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#43	39.6%#225	38.0%
Three	32.1%#276	36.0%#302	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UAlbany

−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#336 of 365

Off reb %

32.7%

#99

Def reb %

67.6%

#277

Turnover %

18.5%

#300

Forced TO %

15.8%

#230

FT rate

24.9%

#364

FT allowed

35.7%

#202

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.7

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn−2.6

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Mercyhurst

−2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#278 of 365

Off reb %

26.4%

#312

Def reb %

70.1%

#153

Turnover %

14.3%

#32

Forced TO %

18.7%

#64

FT rate

25.6%

#361

FT allowed

42.6%

#332

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−2.4

Foul shots allowed−1.9

Mercyhurst has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.3 (#278 of 365) to UAlbany’s −4.3 (#336).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UAlbany2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Amir Lindsey	G	So	5'11"	31-31	37.6	17.9	3.3	4.9	2.0	51.7%	34.9%	5.6	79.2%	29.2%
00	Okechukwu Okeke	F	Sr	6'10"	32-25	29.8	10.8	7.3	0.9	2.2	69.3%	100.0%	0.0	56.5%	20.5%
5	Isaac Abidde	F	Sr	6'9"	32-29	25.3	9.4	4.4	0.6	1.3	56.1%	36.2%	4.0	65.0%	22.9%
11	Jaden Kempson	G	Jr	6'3"	24-20	31.0	10.2	4.4	3.0	2.0	43.1%	29.5%	3.3	62.2%	24.9%
14	Zacharie Matulu	G	So	6'4"	21-18	28.4	9.9	5.7	1.8	1.4	57.0%	36.0%	4.1	75.0%	21.0%
4	Miles Rose	G	So	6'4"	29-6	15.7	3.3	1.6	1.4	1.0	41.0%	33.3%	0.6	36.7%	19.6%
24	Tarique Foster	F	Jr	6'8"	22-8	20.3	5.9	2.2	0.9	0.9	48.8%	33.3%	4.1	64.7%	20.3%
13	Ma'Kye Taylor	F	So	6'7"	31-4	13.7	3.4	2.2	0.5	0.8	47.5%	9.1%	0.7	45.0%	19.0%
8	Nas Muhammad	G	Jr	6'1"	15-5	20.5	9.1	2.3	2.3	0.7	47.6%	34.2%	5.3	75.0%	27.0%
22	Abdoulaye Fall	G	Jr	6'10"	7-7	30.7	9.6	3.4	1.1	1.6	51.9%	31.8%	3.1	85.7%	20.8%
7	Ife West-Ingram	F	Jr	6'7"	9-1	14.3	6.9	2.8	0.8	0.7	72.6%	25.0%	0.4	50.0%	21.2%
25	Yaya Keita	C	Jr	6'9"	13-4	8.6	3.3	1.8	0.5	0.5	51.6%	—	0.0	78.6%	21.7%
10	Bautista Giralt	C	So	7'0"	15-2	2.9	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.2	62.5%	—	0.0	50.0%	20.4%
33	Sully Adewale	F	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Wilkin Paulino	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Will Richardson	G	Jr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Mercyhurst2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Bernie Blunt III	G	Sr	5'11"	34-34	30.9	17.6	3.1	2.2	1.3	49.8%	35.5%	5.9	86.5%	34.1%
11	Jake Lemelman	G	So	6'2"	34-34	30.0	13.9	2.5	3.2	1.7	50.2%	39.6%	4.5	86.4%	30.6%
7	Deshaun Jackson Jr.	G	So	6'2"	34-1	22.4	6.0	3.0	3.0	1.4	46.8%	0.0%	0.1	65.9%	20.6%
10	Christian Gamble	G	Sr	6'0"	34-33	21.1	3.9	1.6	2.1	0.6	44.6%	28.8%	2.1	73.1%	13.9%
5	Mykolas Ivanauskas	F	So	6'8"	32-31	19.6	7.4	5.1	0.4	1.1	57.9%	22.6%	1.0	58.6%	23.6%
1	Sean Lang	G	Sr	6'3"	32-0	13.4	0.8	2.4	1.0	0.3	26.6%	15.8%	0.6	62.5%	6.9%
3	Cameron Johnson	F	Jr	6'5"	33-4	12.2	3.4	2.4	0.5	0.6	44.9%	32.1%	0.8	75.0%	20.8%
15	Kaden Fuhrmann	G	Sr	6'5"	32-0	11.6	3.3	0.8	0.8	0.4	51.6%	31.3%	2.5	87.5%	18.6%
34	James Thomas	F	Sr	6'6"	33-0	9.6	1.4	2.0	0.4	0.3	48.8%	—	0.0	27.3%	12.2%
23	Or Faran	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	5.2	1.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	33.3%	28.6%	0.8	33.3%	20.8%
33	Vladimir Pavlovic	G	Jr	6'2"	8-0	4.4	0.8	0.0	0.4	0.6	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	23.4%
2	Brady Conner	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.0	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.5	11.1%	0.0%	1.0	0.0%	25.1%
13	Chris Leman	F	Fr	6'9"	6-0	4.3	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.3	43.8%	33.3%	0.5	0.0%	24.3%
21	Emilis Butkus	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UAlbany2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Amir Lindsey	G	So	5'11"	31-31	37.6	17.9	3.3	4.9	2.0	51.7%	34.9%	5.6	79.2%	29.2%
00	Okechukwu Okeke	F	Sr	6'10"	32-25	29.8	10.8	7.3	0.9	2.2	69.3%	100.0%	0.0	56.5%	20.5%
5	Isaac Abidde	F	Sr	6'9"	32-29	25.3	9.4	4.4	0.6	1.3	56.1%	36.2%	4.0	65.0%	22.9%
11	Jaden Kempson	G	Jr	6'3"	24-20	31.0	10.2	4.4	3.0	2.0	43.1%	29.5%	3.3	62.2%	24.9%
14	Zacharie Matulu	G	So	6'4"	21-18	28.4	9.9	5.7	1.8	1.4	57.0%	36.0%	4.1	75.0%	21.0%
4	Miles Rose	G	So	6'4"	29-6	15.7	3.3	1.6	1.4	1.0	41.0%	33.3%	0.6	36.7%	19.6%
24	Tarique Foster	F	Jr	6'8"	22-8	20.3	5.9	2.2	0.9	0.9	48.8%	33.3%	4.1	64.7%	20.3%
13	Ma'Kye Taylor	F	So	6'7"	31-4	13.7	3.4	2.2	0.5	0.8	47.5%	9.1%	0.7	45.0%	19.0%
8	Nas Muhammad	G	Jr	6'1"	15-5	20.5	9.1	2.3	2.3	0.7	47.6%	34.2%	5.3	75.0%	27.0%
22	Abdoulaye Fall	G	Jr	6'10"	7-7	30.7	9.6	3.4	1.1	1.6	51.9%	31.8%	3.1	85.7%	20.8%
7	Ife West-Ingram	F	Jr	6'7"	9-1	14.3	6.9	2.8	0.8	0.7	72.6%	25.0%	0.4	50.0%	21.2%
25	Yaya Keita	C	Jr	6'9"	13-4	8.6	3.3	1.8	0.5	0.5	51.6%	—	0.0	78.6%	21.7%
10	Bautista Giralt	C	So	7'0"	15-2	2.9	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.2	62.5%	—	0.0	50.0%	20.4%
33	Sully Adewale	F	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Wilkin Paulino	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Will Richardson	G	Jr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UAlbany

Against the spread

Season

11-18

Home

4-5

Road

5-12

Last 10

4-6

avg cover +0.6

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-15

Home

4-5

Road

8-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.8

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	A	L 76–81	+3.0	L−2.0	147.5	O157	112.7	120.1	67.5
Mar 3	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 56–69	+9.0	L−4.0	137.0	U125	91.7	112.9	61.1
Feb 28	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 84–61	−3.0	W+20.0	139.0	O145	125.3	91.0	67.0
Feb 26	MaineAdjEM #335	H	L 59–70	−5.5	L−16.5	131.5	U129	98.0	116.3	60.2
Feb 21	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 62–66	+6.0	W+2.0	145.0	U128	104.1	110.9	59.5
Feb 19	NJITAdjEM #331	A	W 81–63	+4.0	W+22.0	143.0	O144	136.0	105.7	59.6
Feb 14	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	A	W 77–74	−4.5	L−1.5	137.0	O151	112.4	108.0	68.5
Feb 7	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	H	L 79–89	−3.5	L−13.5	145.0	O168	113.6	128.0	69.5
Feb 5	BryantAdjEM #347	A	W 65–63	+1.0	W+3.0	134.0	U128	107.7	104.3	60.4
Jan 31	UMBCAdjEM #147	H	L 65–68	−1.0	L−4.0	140.5	U133	102.7	107.4	63.3

Mercyhurst

Against the spread

Season

21-11

Home

9-4

Road

12-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-16

Home

7-6

Road

9-10

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +6.0

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 70–79	+5.0	L−4.0	134.0	O149	105.7	119.3	66.2
Mar 7	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	W 56–51	−4.5	W+0.5	135.0	U107	85.4	77.8	65.6
Mar 4	FDUAdjEM #332	H	W 70–61	−4.0	W+5.0	132.5	U131	108.0	94.2	64.8
Feb 28	StonehillAdjEM #320	A	W 75–72 OT	−2.5	W+0.5	138.5	O147	97.9	94.0	76.6
Feb 26	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	L 78–80	+4.0	W+2.0	141.0	O158	114.7	117.7	68.0
Feb 21	Long IslandAdjEM #195	H	W 91–83	+3.5	W+11.5	141.0	O174	130.5	119.0	69.7
Feb 19	WagnerAdjEM #285	H	L 80–83 OT	−3.5	L−6.5	134.5	O163	107.3	111.4	74.5
Feb 14	Saint Francis Red Wolves	A	W 94–79	−2.0	W+13.0	138.5	O173	137.0	115.1	68.6
Feb 12	Le MoyneAdjEM #270	A	L 57–58	+2.5	W+1.5	138.5	U115	82.7	84.2	68.9
Feb 7	FDUAdjEM #332	A	L 52–55	+2.5	L−0.5	131.0	U107	95.9	101.4	54.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UAlbanyMercyhurst

Efficiency

105.5

103.8

113.4

108.8

67.0

66.5

—

Shooting

51.3%

49.5%

52.8%

50.0%

32.6%

32.1%

65.9%

74.1%

24.9%

25.6%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

14.3%

15.8%

18.7%

32.7%

26.4%

32.4%

29.9%

10.4%

7.7%

9.4%

6.3%

Style

37.6%

31.1%

49.5%

46.5%

13.7%

11.3%

48.9%

54.2%

26.3%

34.3%

Roster

2.86

3.05

6'5.2"

6'2.6"

—

84.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UAlbany

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Mercyhurst

Returning minutes: 84.5%Returning production: 78.6%

Lost

Qadir Martin 31.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg · transferred to Fairfield

Added

Emilis Butkus no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.