CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMoody Center, Austin, TX

S Indiana

Efficiency #333

2025-26: 7-23 · 4-16 conf

Texas

Efficiency #38

2025-26: 21-15 · 9-10 conf

Sun, Nov 22 · TBD

64.8

win 5%

Projected

83.4

win 95%

No line posted yet.

Model: TEX −18.6 · total 148.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Texas 67.8, S Indiana 68.6 → 68.1 possessions

−0.6

Texas offense vs S Indiana defense

+7.6

S Indiana offense vs Texas defense

−7.1

Projected total

148.2

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Texas offense vs S Indiana defense

+7.6

S Indiana offense vs Texas defense

+7.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Texas by 18.6

18.6

S Indiana side ◂▸ Texas side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 148.1 against a projected 148.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Texas.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, S Indiana is the faster team (68.4, #175 of 365) and Texas the slower (68.2, #193). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.2

model

Projected team totals

64.8 / 83.4

S Indiana / Texas

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#162

S Indiana

67.8#223

Texas

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageS Indiana

Where S Indiana struggles: shooting

S Indiana shoots an effective 43.7% (#363); Texas allows 50.8% (#144). Expect about 46.6%, 4.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashTexas

Style match: ball movement

Texas creates off the dribble (assists on 43.7% of its baskets); S Indiana breaks up passing offenses (assists on 40.3% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 38.9% — both habits push the same way.

ClashTexas

Style match: 3-point volume

Texas rarely shoots threes (35.8% of its shots); S Indiana runs teams off the line (27.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 28.6% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageTexas

Where Texas scores: the offensive glass

Texas rebounds 35.4% of its own misses (#35); S Indiana lets opponents grab 33.8% of their own misses (#315). Expect about 35.6%, 5.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.

ClashS Indiana

Style match: ball movement

S Indiana creates off the dribble (assists on 43.0% of its baskets); Texas breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.0% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.2% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversS Indiana

S Indiana protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.6% is worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions for S Indiana's offense.

S Indiana has the ball

OffenseTexas allowsvs D1 avg

43.7% #363

50.8% #144

-6.6 pt/100

17.2% #216

13.0% #355

+2.7 pt/100

31.4% #145

26.9% #35

-0.6 pt/100

37.2% #123

39.6% #297

+0.5 pt/100

66.6% #347

—

-0.5 pt/100

S Indiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.6 pts/100

Texas has the ball

OffenseS Indiana allowsvs D1 avg

54.1% #65

49.4% #80

+0.9 pt/100

15.0% #67

16.4% #190

+1.5 pt/100

35.4% #35

33.8% #315

+3.1 pt/100

44.2% #7

36.2% #212

+0.6 pt/100

74.4% #110

—

+0.2 pt/100

Texas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

S Indianaoffense vsTexasdefense

Share of shots by zone

S Indiana shoots

39.7

2.9

18.3

39.2

Texas allows

39.2

5.2

22.8

32.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	49.4%#363	57.6%#134	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.0%#342	42.3%#234	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.8%#355	38.2%#165	38.0%
Three	29.9%#345	34.7%#230	33.7%

Texasoffense vsS Indianadefense

Share of shots by zone

Texas shoots

39.0

5.9

19.7

35.5

S Indiana allows

47.4

8.0

17.9

26.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.9%#74	56.3%#92	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.9%#197	33.3%#31	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.1%#51	35.6%#94	38.0%
Three	35.1%#107	34.1%#193	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

S Indiana

−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#217 of 365

Off reb %

31.4%

#145

Def reb %

66.2%

#315

Turnover %

17.2%

#216

Forced TO %

16.4%

#190

FT rate

37.2%

#123

FT allowed

36.2%

#212

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Texas

+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#67 of 365

Off reb %

35.4%

#35

Def reb %

73.1%

#35

Turnover %

15.0%

#67

Forced TO %

13.0%

#355

FT rate

44.2%

FT allowed

39.6%

#297

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−2.5

Foul shots drawn+2.4

Foul shots allowed−1.1

Texas has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#67 of 365) to S Indiana’s −0.8 (#217).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

S Indiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Ismail Habib	G	Sr	6'1"	27-23	32.4	14.7	3.6	2.8	2.4	47.2%	33.0%	6.9	68.8%	30.5%
3	Tolu Samuels	F	Jr	6'8"	29-26	29.5	7.1	8.6	1.3	1.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.4	51.2%	16.8%
5	Ola Ajiboye	F	Sr	6'8"	30-30	25.0	6.6	5.1	0.8	0.8	49.3%	0.0%	0.0	65.2%	16.2%
8	Cardell Bailey	G	Sr	6'6"	29-7	24.6	12.6	5.0	0.7	1.4	46.1%	30.9%	5.7	71.4%	33.9%
11	Sheridan Sharp	G	Jr	6'3"	30-7	17.1	4.4	2.1	2.5	1.4	31.8%	25.0%	0.5	63.5%	23.6%
2	Steven Clay	G	Sr	6'4"	30-21	14.5	4.4	2.0	0.5	0.5	50.4%	31.0%	2.9	93.3%	18.4%
15	Amaree Brown	G	Jr	6'5"	16-12	26.4	13.8	2.8	1.2	1.9	41.2%	28.8%	3.7	78.5%	36.7%
22	Josiah Dunham	G	So	6'0"	20-10	20.9	4.8	1.9	0.7	0.7	47.3%	35.8%	3.4	80.0%	15.9%
0	Kaden Brown	G	Jr	6'1"	13-12	28.3	11.1	2.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	33.7%	6.6	67.4%	24.0%
13	Devin Curtis	F	Jr	6'11"	27-0	11.3	2.1	2.5	0.2	0.6	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	44.4%	14.8%
6	Ben Ezeagu	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	8.5	2.1	1.3	0.0	0.7	45.0%	—	0.0	56.0%	18.5%
12	Alem Fejzic	G	So	6'3"	14-0	8.6	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.2	33.8%	21.2%	2.4	—	16.7%
1	Trey Thomas	G	Sr	6'2"	4-2	22.5	11.8	3.3	1.0	2.0	40.9%	18.8%	4.0	100.0%	37.8%
4	Braxton Jones	G	Sr	6'0"	4-0	10.5	2.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	19.2%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	20.0%
33	Cayden Gehlhausen	G	So	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.4	1.4	0.0	0.4	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Texas2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Jordan Pope	G	Sr	6'1"	36-35	29.0	13.1	2.1	1.9	0.9	51.3%	37.2%	6.4	84.0%	25.7%
8	Matas Vokietaitis	C	So	7'0"	36-36	26.0	15.6	7.1	0.6	2.1	61.9%	—	0.0	66.9%	31.8%
5	Camden Heide	F	Jr	6'7"	35-29	22.5	5.9	2.7	0.7	0.4	66.1%	45.4%	3.1	70.6%	12.5%
2	Chendall Weaver	G	Sr	6'3"	36-2	20.9	5.8	4.1	1.1	0.7	47.3%	21.7%	1.3	71.4%	17.5%
7	Simeon Wilcher	G	Jr	6'4"	36-1	18.6	5.6	1.8	1.7	1.3	45.6%	33.7%	2.6	91.7%	20.7%
10	Nic Codie	F	So	6'8"	24-4	15.8	4.1	3.1	0.8	0.6	50.6%	14.3%	0.6	63.0%	16.8%
23	Lassina Traore	F	Sr	6'10"	23-1	15.7	3.4	5.1	0.6	1.0	44.9%	0.0%	0.0	66.0%	15.3%
4	Declan Duru Jr.	F	Fr	6'8"	12-0	7.0	1.3	1.2	0.0	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	0.4	25.0%	12.9%
33	Anthon McDermott	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	2.9	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.3	75.0%	50.0%	0.6	—	15.7%
1	Cole Bott	F	Sr	6'6"	6-0	1.2	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.0	150.0%	100.0%	0.2	—	7.4%
44	Brandon Taylor	G	Sr	5'10"	4-0	1.3	0.8	0.5	0.0	0.3	30.0%	25.0%	1.0	—	64.8%
9	John Clark	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Lewis Obiorah	C	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

S Indiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Ismail Habib	G	Sr	6'1"	27-23	32.4	14.7	3.6	2.8	2.4	47.2%	33.0%	6.9	68.8%	30.5%
3	Tolu Samuels	F	Jr	6'8"	29-26	29.5	7.1	8.6	1.3	1.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.4	51.2%	16.8%
5	Ola Ajiboye	F	Sr	6'8"	30-30	25.0	6.6	5.1	0.8	0.8	49.3%	0.0%	0.0	65.2%	16.2%
8	Cardell Bailey	G	Sr	6'6"	29-7	24.6	12.6	5.0	0.7	1.4	46.1%	30.9%	5.7	71.4%	33.9%
11	Sheridan Sharp	G	Jr	6'3"	30-7	17.1	4.4	2.1	2.5	1.4	31.8%	25.0%	0.5	63.5%	23.6%
2	Steven Clay	G	Sr	6'4"	30-21	14.5	4.4	2.0	0.5	0.5	50.4%	31.0%	2.9	93.3%	18.4%
15	Amaree Brown	G	Jr	6'5"	16-12	26.4	13.8	2.8	1.2	1.9	41.2%	28.8%	3.7	78.5%	36.7%
22	Josiah Dunham	G	So	6'0"	20-10	20.9	4.8	1.9	0.7	0.7	47.3%	35.8%	3.4	80.0%	15.9%
0	Kaden Brown	G	Jr	6'1"	13-12	28.3	11.1	2.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	33.7%	6.6	67.4%	24.0%
13	Devin Curtis	F	Jr	6'11"	27-0	11.3	2.1	2.5	0.2	0.6	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	44.4%	14.8%
6	Ben Ezeagu	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	8.5	2.1	1.3	0.0	0.7	45.0%	—	0.0	56.0%	18.5%
12	Alem Fejzic	G	So	6'3"	14-0	8.6	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.2	33.8%	21.2%	2.4	—	16.7%
1	Trey Thomas	G	Sr	6'2"	4-2	22.5	11.8	3.3	1.0	2.0	40.9%	18.8%	4.0	100.0%	37.8%
4	Braxton Jones	G	Sr	6'0"	4-0	10.5	2.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	19.2%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	20.0%
33	Cayden Gehlhausen	G	So	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.4	1.4	0.0	0.4	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

S Indiana

Against the spread

Season

12-15-1

Home

2-8-1

Road

8-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −4.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-17

Home

3-8

Road

6-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.7

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Feb 28	Little RockAdjEM #300	A	L 70–89	+6.0	L−13.0	139.5	O159	104.5	132.8	67.0
Feb 24	Morehead StAdjEM #266	A	L 63–64	+7.5	W+6.5	142.5	U127	104.0	105.7	60.5
Feb 21	E IllinoisAdjEM #317	A	W 70–68	+4.5	W+6.5	136.0	O138	106.9	103.9	65.5
Feb 19	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	A	W 77–70	−2.5	W+4.5	140.0	O147	116.7	106.1	66.0
Feb 14	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	H	L 74–82	−1.0	L−9.0	139.5	O156	114.9	127.3	64.4
Feb 12	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	H	L 71–73	+6.0	W+4.0	148.5	U144	107.2	110.2	66.2
Feb 7	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	A	L 65–90	+11.0	L−14.0	140.5	O155	96.2	133.2	67.6
Feb 5	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	L 54–76	+11.5	L−10.5	132.0	U130	84.0	118.3	64.3
Jan 31	SIUEAdjEM #229	H	L 46–58	+2.0	L−10.0	130.5	U104	76.2	96.1	60.4
Jan 29	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	H	L 60–73	+5.0	L−8.0	151.0	U133	77.3	94.0	77.6

Texas

Against the spread

Season

20-15

Home

8-9

Road

7-3

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.2

Covered 4 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-15

Home

10-7

Road

7-3

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +0.1

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 26	#2PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 77–79	+8.5	W+6.5	146.5	O156	126.6	129.9	60.8
Mar 21	#3GonzagaAdjEM #8	N	W 74–68	+6.0	W+12.0	147.5	U142	115.6	106.3	64.0
Mar 19	#6BYUAdjEM #26	N	W 79–71	+2.5	W+10.5	158.0	U150	118.0	106.0	67.0
Mar 17	#11NC StateAdjEM #34	N	W 68–66	+1.0	W+3.0	157.5	U134	100.5	97.5	67.7
Mar 11	Ole MissAdjEM #82	N	L 66–76	−6.0	L−16.0	148.0	U142	94.7	109.1	69.7
Mar 7	OklahomaAdjEM #47	H	L 85–88 OT	−6.5	L−9.5	153.5	O173	109.7	113.6	77.5
Mar 4	#20ArkansasAdjEM #19	A	L 85–105	+7.0	L−13.0	164.5	O190	107.5	132.8	79.0
Feb 28	Texas A&MAdjEM #43	A	W 76–70	+2.5	W+8.5	160.5	U146	110.5	101.8	68.8
Feb 25	#7FloridaAdjEM #5	H	L 71–84	+7.0	L−6.0	158.5	U155	110.0	130.1	64.5
Feb 21	GeorgiaAdjEM #32	A	L 80–91	+3.0	L−8.0	163.5	O171	129.0	146.7	62.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

S IndianaTexas

Efficiency

100.1

117.6

110.6

106.4

68.6

67.8

—

Shooting

43.7%

54.1%

43.0%

54.8%

29.9%

35.1%

66.6%

74.4%

37.2%

44.2%

Ball control & glass

17.2%

15.0%

16.4%

13.0%

31.4%

35.4%

33.8%

26.9%

9.5%

9.1%

14.1%

10.0%

Style

39.7%

35.8%

38.0%

42.2%

14.7%

14.9%

43.0%

43.7%

35.3%

30.9%

Roster

3.41

3.13

6'4.7"

6'6"

—

69.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

S Indiana

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Texas

Returning minutes: 69.6%Returning production: 60.5%

Lost

Dailyn Swain 32.9 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tramon Mark 28.3 mpg, 14.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Lewis Obiorah no D1 minutes last season
John Clark no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 70% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.