CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferencePete Hanna Center, Homewood, AL

UNC Asheville

Efficiency #226

2025-26: 15-17 · 9-9 conf

Samford

Efficiency #202

2025-26: 18-14 · 11-8 conf

Sun, Nov 22 · TBD

70.1

win 34%

Projected

74.9

win 66%

No line posted yet.

Model: SAM −4.8 · total 145.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Samford 68.3, UNC Asheville 66.6 → 66.6 possessions

−3.6

Samford offense vs UNC Asheville defense

+0.7

UNC Asheville offense vs Samford defense

−0.3

Projected total

145.0

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Samford offense vs UNC Asheville defense

+0.7

UNC Asheville offense vs Samford defense

+0.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Samford by 4.8

4.8

UNC Asheville side ◂▸ Samford side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Samford.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Samford is the faster team (68.4, #176 of 365) and UNC Asheville the slower (67.1, #238). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.0

model

Projected team totals

70.1 / 74.9

UNC Asheville / Samford

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.6#311

UNC Asheville

68.3#182

Samford

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashUNC Asheville

Style match: ball movement

UNC Asheville creates off the dribble (assists on 40.4% of its baskets); Samford breaks up passing offenses (assists on 45.8% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 40.4% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageSamford

Where Samford scores: ball control

Samford turns it over on 13.4% of possessions (#11); UNC Asheville forces turnovers on 15.5% of opponent possessions (#252). Expect about 14.0%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageUNC Asheville

Where UNC Asheville scores: ball control

UNC Asheville turns it over on 17.4% of possessions (#231); Samford forces turnovers on 13.0% of opponent possessions (#354). Expect about 14.7%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashUNC Asheville

Style match: 3-point volume

UNC Asheville rarely shoots threes (33.6% of its shots); Samford runs teams off the line (35.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.5% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Samford's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UNC Asheville at about 32.5% of its shots from three, Samford about 43.7%.

GlassSamford

Samford gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against Samford's offense.

UNC Asheville has the ball

OffenseSamford allowsvs D1 avg

51.0% #194

51.9% #206

+0.2 pt/100

17.4% #231

13.0% #354

+2.5 pt/100

29.8% #211

25.7% #17

-1.6 pt/100

40.0% #60

32.9% #128

+0.1 pt/100

68.4% #317

—

-0.4 pt/100

UNC Asheville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100

Samford has the ball

OffenseUNC Asheville allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #101

51.3% #175

+1.5 pt/100

13.4% #11

15.5% #252

+3.4 pt/100

25.3% #333

31.3% #218

-1.9 pt/100

41.9% #32

38.7% #279

+0.7 pt/100

69.2% #293

—

-0.3 pt/100

Samford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UNC Ashevilleoffense vsSamforddefense

Share of shots by zone

UNC Asheville shoots

32.0

10.4

24.2

33.5

Samford allows

34.3

9.2

21.2

35.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#232	57.1%#114	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.8%#40	37.5%#124	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#67	42.7%#325	38.0%
Three	35.1%#110	36.5%#326	33.7%

Samfordoffense vsUNC Ashevilledefense

Share of shots by zone

Samford shoots

35.0

4.3

14.4

46.3

UNC Asheville allows

44.2

5.6

11.9

38.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.5%#63	57.3%#125	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	27.5%#359	36.4%#99	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.4%#136	40.9%#272	38.0%
Three	35.6%#84	32.6%#93	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UNC Asheville

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#249 of 365

Off reb %

29.8%

#211

Def reb %

68.7%

#218

Turnover %

17.4%

#231

Forced TO %

15.5%

#252

FT rate

40.0%

#60

FT allowed

38.7%

#279

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed−0.9

Samford

+2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#94 of 365

Off reb %

25.3%

#333

Def reb %

74.3%

#17

Turnover %

13.4%

#11

Forced TO %

13.0%

#354

FT rate

41.9%

#32

FT allowed

32.9%

#128

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.6

Defensive rebounding+1.6

Ball security+2.3

Forcing turnovers−2.5

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Samford has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.1 (#94 of 365) to UNC Asheville’s −1.3 (#249).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UNC Asheville2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Toyaz Solomon	F	Sr	6'9"	32-28	33.4	16.9	7.4	2.0	2.2	50.0%	36.3%	2.8	68.4%	32.1%
55	Justin Wright	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	33.0	17.1	3.1	3.0	2.3	53.8%	37.3%	3.9	78.8%	30.6%
8	DJ Patrick	G	Sr	6'6"	29-27	33.8	9.6	4.0	0.8	1.0	53.4%	39.3%	6.1	73.2%	17.0%
5	Myles Mayfield	F	Fr	6'8"	32-15	22.9	4.5	4.3	0.8	1.2	62.5%	66.7%	0.1	42.1%	13.0%
13	Daniel Thomas	F	Fr	6'8"	30-19	20.2	2.8	4.9	0.4	0.9	45.7%	0.0%	0.1	54.3%	11.1%
1	Julian Clarke	PG	So	6'1"	26-0	10.3	1.8	0.6	0.3	0.5	58.1%	40.6%	1.2	55.6%	12.0%
44	Sage Tolentino	F	Jr	7'1"	27-3	9.3	1.1	1.8	0.3	0.3	57.9%	0.0%	0.0	80.0%	7.3%
24	Corey Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	18-1	8.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.2	33.3%	14.3%	0.8	0.0%	7.9%
11	Jakel Powell	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	12.5	3.2	1.5	0.6	0.3	40.3%	28.0%	2.5	77.8%	17.0%
23	David Hermes	F	Sr	6'10"	8-4	11.5	0.5	1.3	0.1	0.4	50.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	3.9%
7	Connor Dubsky	G	Jr	6'4"	1-0	13.0	15.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	83.3%	55.6%	9.0	—	44.6%
2	Rasheed Baldwin	G	Sr	6'5"	3-1	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	18.8%	12.5%	2.7	—	51.7%
10	Hugo Maton	G	Fr	6'2"	2-0	3.5	3.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	100.0%	66.7%	1.5	—	24.7%
14	Brayden Rivers	SF	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Mitchell Taylor	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Samford2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jadin Booth	G	Sr	6'2"	30-30	36.5	21.6	3.7	2.2	1.6	60.3%	43.6%	9.7	86.9%	29.2%
5	Cade Norris	G	So	6'4"	32-31	30.7	8.9	4.6	2.1	0.8	56.2%	40.4%	3.4	76.3%	15.7%
3	Keaton Norris	G	Sr	6'0"	28-28	32.9	10.0	4.3	4.9	1.4	47.4%	31.1%	4.7	83.6%	20.0%
0	Isaiah Campbell-Finch	G	Fr	6'0"	29-19	23.4	7.4	1.5	1.3	0.7	49.5%	32.1%	2.9	51.6%	20.0%
10	Kam Martin	G	So	6'4"	32-8	16.6	5.7	2.1	0.9	0.5	50.0%	32.6%	2.8	85.1%	19.6%
8	Zion Wilburn	G	So	6'5"	30-5	17.0	4.6	2.2	0.9	1.0	45.5%	29.6%	1.8	60.7%	19.6%
22	Jaxon Pollard	F	Sr	6'7"	25-8	13.0	3.2	3.7	0.6	0.3	37.4%	19.6%	2.0	60.0%	19.4%
35	Will Shaver	C	So	6'10"	30-0	9.6	2.7	2.6	0.8	1.1	50.8%	33.3%	0.4	59.3%	22.0%
4	Judson Bjornstad	F	So	6'8"	24-1	8.8	2.3	1.4	0.3	0.3	41.3%	28.6%	0.9	72.7%	17.1%
23	Caleb Harrison	F	Fr	6'9"	12-0	6.1	1.7	1.5	0.8	0.3	60.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	15.1%
33	Zach Lamey	G	So	6'3"	5-0	8.2	4.6	1.0	0.0	0.6	68.8%	46.2%	2.6	50.0%	26.5%
21	Corey Brown	G	So	6'4"	5-0	6.4	0.8	0.6	0.8	0.2	25.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	10.1%
11	Cooper Davenport	G	Fr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	DaJion Humphrey	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	JD Gossett	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
31	Joshua Hughes	F	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UNC Asheville2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Toyaz Solomon	F	Sr	6'9"	32-28	33.4	16.9	7.4	2.0	2.2	50.0%	36.3%	2.8	68.4%	32.1%
55	Justin Wright	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	33.0	17.1	3.1	3.0	2.3	53.8%	37.3%	3.9	78.8%	30.6%
8	DJ Patrick	G	Sr	6'6"	29-27	33.8	9.6	4.0	0.8	1.0	53.4%	39.3%	6.1	73.2%	17.0%
5	Myles Mayfield	F	Fr	6'8"	32-15	22.9	4.5	4.3	0.8	1.2	62.5%	66.7%	0.1	42.1%	13.0%
13	Daniel Thomas	F	Fr	6'8"	30-19	20.2	2.8	4.9	0.4	0.9	45.7%	0.0%	0.1	54.3%	11.1%
1	Julian Clarke	PG	So	6'1"	26-0	10.3	1.8	0.6	0.3	0.5	58.1%	40.6%	1.2	55.6%	12.0%
44	Sage Tolentino	F	Jr	7'1"	27-3	9.3	1.1	1.8	0.3	0.3	57.9%	0.0%	0.0	80.0%	7.3%
24	Corey Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	18-1	8.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.2	33.3%	14.3%	0.8	0.0%	7.9%
11	Jakel Powell	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	12.5	3.2	1.5	0.6	0.3	40.3%	28.0%	2.5	77.8%	17.0%
23	David Hermes	F	Sr	6'10"	8-4	11.5	0.5	1.3	0.1	0.4	50.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	3.9%
7	Connor Dubsky	G	Jr	6'4"	1-0	13.0	15.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	83.3%	55.6%	9.0	—	44.6%
2	Rasheed Baldwin	G	Sr	6'5"	3-1	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	18.8%	12.5%	2.7	—	51.7%
10	Hugo Maton	G	Fr	6'2"	2-0	3.5	3.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	100.0%	66.7%	1.5	—	24.7%
14	Brayden Rivers	SF	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Mitchell Taylor	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UNC Asheville

Against the spread

Season

14-15

Home

5-7

Road

6-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.5

Covered 2 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

4-8

Road

9-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +0.8

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	High PointAdjEM #50	N	L 71–75	+13.0	W+9.0	147.5	U146	104.6	110.5	67.9
Mar 6	LongwoodAdjEM #248	N	W 85–82 OT	+1.0	W+4.0	141.0	O167	111.0	107.1	76.5
Feb 28	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	H	L 75–92	−4.0	L−21.0	149.5	O167	105.9	129.9	70.8
Feb 26	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	A	W 77–71	−12.5	L−6.5	145.5	O148	124.2	114.6	62.0
Feb 21	RadfordAdjEM #245	H	W 74–73 OT	−2.0	L−1.0	149.0	U147	104.3	102.9	71.0
Feb 19	High PointAdjEM #50	A	L 48–74	+15.0	L−11.0	152.0	U122	74.6	115.0	64.4
Feb 14	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	H	L 57–58	−4.5	L−5.5	136.5	U115	90.5	92.1	63.0
Feb 12	LongwoodAdjEM #248	A	W 79–74	+2.0	W+7.0	142.5	O153	117.1	109.7	67.5
Feb 4	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	H	W 76–67	−6.5	W+2.5	140.5	O143	112.5	99.2	67.6
Jan 31	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 71–84	+10.0	L−3.0	150.5	O155	109.5	129.5	64.8

Samford

Against the spread

Season

14-14-2

Home

7-5

Road

6-7-2

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +5.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-10-2

Home

5-5-2

Road

12-3

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.7

Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	FurmanAdjEM #163	N	L 81–86	−1.5	L−6.5	145.5	O167	117.4	124.6	69.0
Feb 28	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	H	W 87–78	−9.5	L−0.5	157.0	O165	119.8	107.4	72.6
Feb 26	VMIAdjEM #361	H	W 80–61	−17.0	W+2.0	156.0	U141	122.0	93.0	65.6
Feb 21	MercerAdjEM #161	A	L 86–89	+3.5	W+0.5	156.5	O175	122.2	126.4	70.4
Feb 19	The CitadelAdjEM #348	A	W 78–75	−10.5	L−7.5	144.0	O153	110.0	105.8	70.9
Feb 14	ETSUAdjEM #110	A	W 82–72 OT	+6.0	W+16.0	145.5	O154	109.0	95.7	75.2
Feb 11	WoffordAdjEM #235	H	W 97–80	−6.0	W+11.0	151.0	O177	133.0	109.7	72.9
Feb 7	MercerAdjEM #161	H	W 69–49	+2.0	W+22.0	161.0	U118	104.9	74.5	65.8
Feb 5	The CitadelAdjEM #348	H	W 78–64	−13.5	W+0.5	146.0	U142	120.5	98.9	64.7
Feb 1	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	A	W 88–74	−1.5	W+12.5	154.5	O162	121.5	102.2	72.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UNC AshevilleSamford

Efficiency

106.1

109.1

108.9

110.4

66.6

68.3

—

Shooting

51.0%

53.1%

50.1%

52.8%

35.1%

35.6%

68.4%

69.2%

40.0%

41.9%

Ball control & glass

17.4%

13.4%

15.5%

13.0%

29.8%

25.3%

31.3%

25.7%

9.3%

7.6%

7.7%

10.2%

Style

33.6%

45.7%

44.9%

37.7%

10.4%

10.8%

40.4%

55.2%

24.1%

28.1%

Roster

3.00

2.69

6'6.3"

6'3.3"

82.9%

87.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UNC Asheville

Returning minutes: 82.9%Returning production: 77.5%

Lost

Kam Taylor 34.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Brayden Rivers no D1 minutes last season
Mitchell Taylor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Samford

Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 77.5%

Lost

Dylan Faulkner 24.5 mpg, 16.1 ppg · transferred to Clemson

Added

JD Gossett no D1 minutes last season
Cooper Davenport no D1 minutes last season
DaJion Humphrey no D1 minutes last season
Joshua Hughes no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.