Robert Morris Colonials vs New Mexico State Aggies basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 22 · 2:30 PM ET · The Reef, Jacksonville, FL (neutral site)

Jacksonville ClassicNeutral siteNon-conferenceThe Reef, Jacksonville, FL

Robert Morris

0-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #256

New Mexico St

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #231

Sun, Nov 22 · 2:30 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, New Mexico St is the faster team (70.1, #202 of 365) and Robert Morris the slower (68.5, #251). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.0

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.9#292

Robert Morris

69.7#248

New Mexico St

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

New Mexico St has the ball+2.4

Robert Morris has the ball+6.0

New Mexico St has the ball

✓Wins second chancesOR% 32.1% #167 · RMU allows 42.3% #328+2.3

✗Coughs it upTO% 27.1% #346 · RMU forces 14.6% #284 · ~14 turnovers−2.3

✓Gets to the lineFTR 50.0% #55 · RMU allows 34.4% #156 · FT 91.7% #2+1.7

✓Shoots it welleFG% 47.9% #224 · RMU allows 54.3% #242+0.7

Robert Morris has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 38.7% #338 · NMSU allows 71.8% #358+4.1

✓Gets to the lineFTR 37.1% #171 · NMSU allows 46.8% #279 · FT 83.3% #21+1.3

✓Wins second chancesOR% 27.3% #257 · NMSU allows 39.3% #308+0.3

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 28.5% #351 · NMSU forces 8.6% #355 · ~12 turnovers+0.3

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Robert Morrisoffense vsNew Mexico Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Robert Morris shoots

32.4

5.9

14.7

47.1

New Mexico St allows

42.9

10.2

36.7

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.5%#229	71.4%#318	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	25.0%#250	40.0%#193	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	20.0%#279	80.0%#349	34.7%
Three	26.2%#278	54.2%#357	32.5%

New Mexico Stoffense vsRobert Morrisdefense

Share of shots by zone

New Mexico St shoots

45.0

17.5

15.0

22.5

Robert Morris allows

51.1

8.9

31.1

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.1%#134	63.0%#242	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	57.1%#53	25.0%#76	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.3%#174	25.0%#85	34.7%
Three	28.6%#233	36.2%#264	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Robert Morris

−13.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#336 of 365

Off reb %

27.3%

#257

Def reb %

57.7%

#328

Turnover %

28.5%

#351

Forced TO %

14.6%

#284

FT rate

37.1%

#171

FT allowed

34.4%

#156

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding−3.5

Ball security−7.3

Forcing turnovers−2.5

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed+0.9

New Mexico St

−14.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#342 of 365

Off reb %

32.1%

#167

Def reb %

60.7%

#308

Turnover %

27.1%

#346

Forced TO %

8.6%

#355

FT rate

50.0%

#55

FT allowed

46.8%

#279

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding−2.6

Ball security−6.3

Forcing turnovers−6.7

Foul shots drawn+3.3

Foul shots allowed−2.3

Robert Morris has more extra scoring chances per game: −13.8 (#336 of 365) to New Mexico St’s −14.4 (#342).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Robert Morris2026-27 numbers · last game: UIC, Nov 6

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	G	Sr	6'3"	2-2	30.5	37	—	Started last	4.5	3.0	3.5	5.5	28.6%	25.0%	4.0	33.3%	25.7%
12	G	So	6'2"	2-1	28.5	29	—	Bench	6.5	0.5	1.0	1.5	33.3%	25.0%	8.0	50.0%	22.8%
22	G	So	6'6"	2-2	27.0	23	—	Started last	13.5	4.0	0.5	1.0	43.8%	33.3%	3.0	100.0%	26.5%
5	G	So	6'6"	2-1	25.0	31	—	Started last	5.5	5.0	1.0	0.5	57.1%	66.7%	1.5	75.0%	11.7%
13	F	So	6'10"	2-0	25.0	24	—	Bench	3.0	4.5	2.5	3.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.5	100.0%	14.2%
3	G	Jr	6'3"	2-1	24.0	28	—	Started last	7.5	1.5	1.0	2.0	30.0%	14.3%	3.5	75.0%	28.1%
23	F	Sr	6'8"	2-2	21.0	25	—	Started last	6.0	3.0	1.5	3.5	55.6%	—	0.0	100.0%	23.9%
11	F	Jr	6'7"	1-1	18.0	0	—	Missed last game	8.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	37.5%	—	0.0	100.0%	32.6%
4	G	Fr	6'3"	2-0	8.0	4	—	Bench	2.0	2.5	0.0	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	25.9%
8	G	Fr	6'4"	1-0	4.0	0	—	Missed last game	0.0	1.0	0.0	2.0	—	—	0.0	—	29.4%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Robert Morris

Against the spread

Season

0-2

Home

0-0

Road

0-2

Last 10

0-2

avg cover −18.2

Missed the spread 2 straight

Over / under

Season

0-2

Home

0-0

Road

0-2

Last 10

0-2

avg vs total −8.2

Under 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	UICAdjEM #103	A	L 56–79	+10.5	L−12.5	142.0	U135	79.9	112.7	70.1
Nov 2	NevadaAdjEM #44	A	L 49–86	+13.0	L−24.0	144.5	U135	73.2	128.5	66.9
Mar 9	Detroit MercyAdjEM #324	N	L 64–70	−4.0	L−10.0	146.5	U134	101.5	111.1	63.0
Mar 4	Youngstown StAdjEM #167	H	W 68–53	−4.0	W+11.0	143.5	U121	109.0	84.9	62.4
Feb 28	Cleveland StAdjEM #356	H	W 83–64	−12.5	W+6.5	157.5	U147	129.8	100.1	63.9
Feb 25	Detroit MercyAdjEM #324	H	W 73–62	−8.0	W+3.0	150.5	U135	114.8	97.5	63.6
Feb 22	Wright StAdjEM #77	A	W 81–68	+4.0	W+17.0	146.5	O149	119.9	100.6	67.6
Feb 15	OaklandAdjEM #267	H	W 93–69	−1.5	W+22.5	156.0	O162	140.7	104.4	66.1
Feb 12	Cleveland StAdjEM #356	A	W 85–68	−4.0	W+13.0	154.0	U153	135.3	108.3	62.8
Feb 7	Youngstown StAdjEM #167	A	W 72–66	+3.5	W+9.5	144.0	U138	111.5	102.2	64.6

New Mexico St

Against the spread

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg cover −12.0

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +25.0

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	#15GonzagaAdjEM #6	A	L 68–109	+29.0	L−12.0	152.0	O177	97.0	155.5	70.1
Nov 3	Western New Mexico Mustangs	H	W 73–66	—	—	—	—	105.0	94.9	69.5
Mar 11	Sam HoustonAdjEM #123	N	L 61–69	+4.5	L−3.5	155.0	U130	85.3	96.5	71.5
Mar 10	Jax StateAdjEM #189	N	W 68–63	−1.5	W+3.5	142.0	U131	105.9	98.1	64.2
Mar 7	Kennesaw StAdjEM #153	H	W 79–76	−1.0	W+2.0	157.5	U155	116.9	112.5	67.6
Mar 5	Jax StateAdjEM #189	H	W 77–75 OT	−6.0	L−4.0	145.5	O152	101.5	98.8	75.9
Feb 28	MTSUAdjEM #241	A	L 85–86 OT	+5.5	W+4.5	148.0	O171	113.0	114.3	75.2
Feb 26	Western KYAdjEM #131	A	L 70–93	+5.5	L−17.5	151.5	O163	88.7	117.8	78.9
Feb 21	UTEPAdjEM #243	H	W 67–63	−7.0	L−3.0	143.0	U130	115.0	108.2	58.3
Feb 14	Jax StateAdjEM #189	A	W 79–70	+2.5	W+11.5	140.5	O149	119.9	106.3	65.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Robert MorrisNew Mexico St

Efficiency

101.7

106.9

107.7

111.2

68.9

69.7

9.4

23.9

Shooting

38.7%

47.9%

38.2%

50.0%

26.2%

28.6%

83.3%

91.7%

37.1%

50.0%

Ball control & glass

28.5%

27.1%

14.6%

8.6%

27.3%

32.1%

42.3%

39.3%

15.3%

14.3%

12.7%

8.8%

Style

43.3%

29.2%

34.3%

50.0%

1.9%

5.9%

68.8%

28.6%

35.3%

37.3%

Roster

2.63

2.82

6'5.2"

6'4.9"

24.1%

21.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Robert Morris

Returning minutes: 24.1%Returning production: 18.2%

Lost

Ryan Prather Jr. 34.0 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Iowa State
DeSean Goode 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg · transferred to Miami
Nikos Chitikoudis 25.3 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Xavier
Albert Vargas 20.5 mpg, 6.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kaleb Brown 19.1 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Josh Hill 11.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg · transferred to Oakland

Added

Ace Valentine from UMBC · 31.7 mpg, 11.6 ppg last season
Jalik Dunkley from Nicholls · 25.9 mpg, 11.3 ppg last season
KC Ugwuakazi from Merrimack · 17.8 mpg, 4.9 ppg last season
KJ Garris Jr. from Fullerton · 13.6 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season
Dylan Donovan no D1 minutes last season
Bolaji Oderinlo no D1 minutes last season

Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

New Mexico St

Returning minutes: 21.5%Returning production: 16.7%

Lost

Jemel Jones 28.4 mpg, 17.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Julius Mims 26.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Anthony Wrzeszcz 24.6 mpg, 7.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jayland Randall 19.9 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Elijah Elliott 18.1 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Chris Terrell 12.4 mpg, 4.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Gabe Warren from Holy Cross · 31.6 mpg, 12.5 ppg last season
DJ Dudley from Louisiana Tech · 30.4 mpg, 13.8 ppg last season
Jermaine Washington from San José St · 26.3 mpg, 8.7 ppg last season
Mark Lavrenov from Sacramento St · 26.0 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
Stephon Payne from Seton Hall · 20.2 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
Leopold Levillain from Long Beach St · 18.1 mpg, 4.5 ppg last season

Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sun, Nov 22

Miami OH vs UIC · 12:00 PM ET
Butler vs Nebraska · 1:00 PM ET
Chicago St at Marquette · 1:00 PM ET
Towson at American · 1:00 PM ET
Fairfield at Long Island · 1:00 PM ET
Dayton vs Northwestern · 1:00 PM ET
W Illinois at Canisius · 1:00 PM ET
San Diego vs Fordham · 2:00 PM ET
William & Mary at Youngstown St · 2:00 PM ET
Evansville at Memphis · 2:00 PM ET
Wyoming vs Duquesne · 2:00 PM ET
UMass Lowell at Cincinnati · 2:00 PM ET
South Dakota vs Utah Tech · 2:00 PM ET
G Washington vs Western KY · 2:00 PM ET
S Indiana at Texas · 3:00 PM ET
West Florida at South Alabama · 3:00 PM ET
Troy vs Nicholls · 3:00 PM ET
Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma St · 3:30 PM ET
UAlbany vs Mercyhurst · 3:30 PM ET
McNeese at Texas St · 3:30 PM ET
UC Irvine vs LMU · 4:30 PM ET
IU Indy vs MD Eastern · 4:30 PM ET
Richmond vs Liberty · 4:30 PM ET
NJIT at Boston College · 5:00 PM ET
Fullerton at Portland St · 5:00 PM ET
UNC Asheville at Samford · 5:00 PM ET
Rice vs Lamar · 5:00 PM ET
Utah vs Minnesota · 6:00 PM ET
Southern Miss vs Valparaiso · 6:00 PM ET
CA Baptist vs Portland · 7:00 PM ET
Rhode Island vs UAB · 7:00 PM ET
Delaware at UCLA · 7:00 PM ET
Louisiana at USC · 8:00 PM ET
Seattle U vs UC San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
San José St vs Loyola Chicago · 11:59 PM ET

← Sat, Nov 21 · Mon, Nov 23 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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