Western Illinois Leathernecks vs Canisius Golden Griffins basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET · Koessler Athletic Center, Buffalo, NY

Queen City ClassicNon-conferenceESPN+Koessler Athletic Center, Buffalo, NY

W Illinois

1-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #359

Canisius

1-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #365

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, W Illinois is the faster team (71.3, #159 of 365) and Canisius the slower (69.8, #210). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.7

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.4#125

W Illinois

68.8#298

Canisius

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Canisius has the ball−9.0

W Illinois has the ball+3.6

Canisius has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 39.4% #330 · WIU allows 54.6% #252−4.1

✗Few second chancesOR% 23.8% #300 · WIU allows 31.0% #175−2.4

✗Coughs it upTO% 21.5% #282 · WIU forces 18.2% #163 · ~14 turnovers−1.6

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 29.2% #263 · WIU allows 48.1% #289 · FT 51.5% #348−0.9

W Illinois has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 46.6% #248 · CAN allows 60.5% #328+3.1

✓Wins second chancesOR% 23.0% #310 · CAN allows 48.3% #352+0.9

✗Coughs it upTO% 22.5% #300 · CAN forces 15.0% #268 · ~13 turnovers−0.3

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 45.2% #86 · CAN allows 41.9% #232 · FT 59.6% #311−0.1

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

W Illinoisoffense vsCanisiusdefense

Share of shots by zone

W Illinois shoots

45.6

11.1

20.0

23.3

Canisius allows

51.2

6.3

11.3

31.3

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.5%#178	68.3%#288	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	50.0%#75	40.0%#193	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	27.8%#233	55.6%#316	34.7%
Three	20.0%#351	32.4%#177	32.5%

Canisiusoffense vsW Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Canisius shoots

31.6

9.2

19.7

39.5

W Illinois allows

51.0

6.3

13.5

29.2

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	41.7%#329	69.4%#298	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.9%#141	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	26.7%#237	38.5%#202	34.7%
Three	20.9%#346	21.4%#18	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

W Illinois

−6.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#268 of 365

Off reb %

23.0%

#310

Def reb %

69.0%

#175

Turnover %

22.5%

#300

Forced TO %

18.2%

#163

FT rate

45.2%

#86

FT allowed

48.1%

#289

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.9

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security−3.0

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+2.0

Foul shots allowed−2.7

Canisius

−15.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#349 of 365

Off reb %

23.8%

#300

Def reb %

51.7%

#352

Turnover %

21.5%

#282

Forced TO %

15.0%

#268

FT rate

29.2%

#263

FT allowed

41.9%

#232

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.6

Defensive rebounding−5.6

Ball security−2.3

Forcing turnovers−2.1

Foul shots drawn−2.1

Foul shots allowed−1.0

W Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: −6.1 (#268 of 365) to Canisius’s −15.8 (#349).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

W Illinois2026-27 numbers · last game: Hou Christian, Nov 7

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	F	Sr	6'7"	3-3	28.7	31	—	Started last	8.0	4.7	1.3	2.3	62.5%	50.0%	2.7	28.6%	19.0%
15	F	Sr	6'9"	3-3	27.3	32	—	Started last	14.0	6.0	0.7	2.0	57.1%	—	0.0	62.5%	27.9%
13	G	So	6'2"	3-2	26.7	34	—	Started last	10.3	2.3	1.7	1.7	51.9%	0.0%	0.7	60.0%	23.6%
2	G	Jr	6'0"	3-3	23.7	23	—	Started last	3.3	1.7	3.3	2.3	25.0%	14.3%	4.7	50.0%	19.3%
23	F	So	6'5"	3-0	20.3	26	—	Bench	10.3	2.0	0.0	1.0	54.5%	20.0%	3.3	87.5%	25.9%
0	G	Jr	6'2"	3-0	17.0	22	—	Bench	7.7	4.3	0.7	0.3	60.0%	33.3%	2.0	83.3%	20.2%
21	F	Jr	6'10"	3-3	14.0	10	—	Started last	3.7	3.0	1.0	1.0	36.4%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.9%
5	G	So	6'0"	3-1	11.7	9	—	Bench	4.7	1.3	0.7	0.3	50.0%	100.0%	0.3	71.4%	20.9%
11	G	Fr	6'4"	2-0	16.5	0	—	Missed last game	4.5	1.5	1.0	1.0	41.7%	20.0%	2.5	100.0%	16.6%
10	G	Jr	6'4"	3-0	7.3	3	—	Bench	0.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	16.7%	0.0%	0.7	—	22.8%
3	G	Jr	6'5"	2-0	9.5	9	—	Bench	5.5	2.0	0.0	0.0	45.0%	50.0%	1.0	100.0%	31.1%
12	F	Sr	6'5"	2-0	5.0	—	—	Active	2.5	1.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.5	100.0%	35.8%
32	F	Jr	6'6"	2-0	3.5	—	—	Active	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	100.0%	7.5%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

W Illinois

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg cover −0.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +1.8

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	Simpson (IA) Storm	H	W 90–48	—	—	—	—	125.5	67.0	71.7
Nov 7	Hou ChristianAdjEM #275	N	L 67–74	+9.5	W+2.5	136.5	O141	91.4	100.9	73.3
Nov 2	ValparaisoAdjEM #119	A	L 58–80	+18.5	L−3.5	139.0	U138	83.8	115.6	69.2
Feb 28	LindenwoodAdjEM #280	H	L 69–91	+11.5	L−10.5	150.5	O160	97.8	129.0	70.5
Feb 26	SIUEAdjEM #262	A	L 47–67	+14.0	L−6.0	135.5	U114	69.8	99.6	67.3
Feb 21	Morehead StAdjEM #336	H	L 59–81	+8.0	L−14.0	144.0	U140	92.9	127.6	63.5
Feb 19	S IndianaAdjEM #304	H	L 70–77	+2.5	L−4.5	140.0	O147	106.1	116.7	66.0
Feb 12	Little RockAdjEM #284	H	L 58–77	+7.5	L−11.5	142.0	U135	81.8	108.7	70.9
Feb 10	E IllinoisAdjEM #348	H	W 79–70	+4.5	W+13.5	133.0	O149	109.7	97.2	72.0
Feb 7	Tennessee StAdjEM #209	A	L 56–83	+14.5	L−12.5	151.0	U139	82.3	121.9	68.1

Canisius

Against the spread

Season

0-2

Home

0-1

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-2

avg cover −22.8

Missed the spread 2 straight

Over / under

Season

0-1-1

Home

0-1

Road

0-0-1

Last 10

0-1-1

avg vs total −5.8

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	Hiram Terriers	H	W 117–60	—	—	—	—	148.8	76.3	78.6
Nov 7	St BonaventureAdjEM #118	H	L 49–88	+9.0	L−30.0	148.5	U137	74.1	133.0	66.2
Nov 2	Penn StateAdjEM #141	A	L 57–97	+24.5	L−15.5	154.0	P154	77.5	131.9	73.5
Mar 1	QuinnipiacAdjEM #194	H	L 63–67	+8.0	W+4.0	138.5	U130	94.8	100.9	66.4
Feb 27	MerrimackAdjEM #206	H	W 67–62	+9.0	W+14.0	130.0	U129	110.3	102.1	60.7
Feb 22	Mount St MarysAdjEM #299	A	L 47–68	+7.5	L−13.5	137.5	U115	75.0	108.5	62.6
Feb 20	RiderAdjEM #362	A	W 72–66	+1.0	W+7.0	131.0	O138	106.7	97.8	67.5
Feb 15	ManhattanAdjEM #317	H	L 65–69	+1.5	L−2.5	141.0	U134	100.4	106.5	64.8
Feb 13	IonaAdjEM #227	H	L 63–69	+4.5	L−1.5	138.0	U132	98.0	107.3	64.3
Feb 5	QuinnipiacAdjEM #194	A	L 60–75	+15.0	P0.0	142.0	U135	81.8	102.2	73.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

W IllinoisCanisius

Efficiency

94.1

91.4

112.9

113.9

71.4

68.8

-1.2

3.0

Shooting

46.6%

39.4%

51.9%

44.3%

20.0%

20.9%

59.6%

51.5%

45.2%

29.2%

Ball control & glass

22.5%

21.5%

18.2%

15.0%

23.0%

23.8%

31.0%

48.3%

14.0%

12.2%

8.9%

11.4%

Style

24.0%

38.1%

64.0%

49.1%

22.4%

13.2%

41.3%

50.0%

42.4%

34.8%

Roster

2.89

3.09

6'4.6"

6'4.8"

16.8%

0.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

W Illinois

Returning minutes: 16.8%Returning production: 13.9%

Lost

Lucas Lorenzen 32.9 mpg, 14.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Isaiah Griffin 28.4 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Francis Okwuosah 22.0 mpg, 7.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Antwaun Massey 18.9 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Goanar Biliew 17.3 mpg, 4.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Karyiek Dixon 16.3 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Daivion Traylor no D1 minutes last season
Tayelor Moore no D1 minutes last season
Jack Riley no D1 minutes last season
Matthieu Biembongo no D1 minutes last season
Davee Flowers no D1 minutes last season
Shay Stephens no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Canisius

Returning minutes: 0.2%Returning production: -0.0%

Lost

Kahlil Singleton 33.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to LSU N Orleans
Bryan Ndjonga 32.7 mpg, 13.9 ppg · transferred to Stony Brook
Mike Evbagharu 32.2 mpg, 8.9 ppg · transferred to North Alabama
Myles Wilmoth 23.2 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Javantae Edwards 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to Alabama A&M
Chris Kumu 11.2 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Preist Ryan from Cleveland St · 20.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
Vinny Sigona from East Texas A&M · 17.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg last season
Clinton Efinda from UNC Greensboro · 14.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg last season
Michael Wilson Jr. from Bellarmine · 12.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
Demarris Winters from UT Rio Grande · 4.5 mpg, 1.5 ppg last season
Nate Deer from Oakland · 1.4 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season

Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sun, Nov 22

Miami OH vs UIC · 12:00 PM ET
Butler vs Nebraska · 1:00 PM ET
Chicago St at Marquette · 1:00 PM ET
Towson at American · 1:00 PM ET
Fairfield at Long Island · 1:00 PM ET
Dayton vs Northwestern · 1:00 PM ET
San Diego vs Fordham · 2:00 PM ET
William & Mary at Youngstown St · 2:00 PM ET
Evansville at Memphis · 2:00 PM ET
Wyoming vs Duquesne · 2:00 PM ET
UMass Lowell at Cincinnati · 2:00 PM ET
South Dakota vs Utah Tech · 2:00 PM ET
G Washington vs Western KY · 2:00 PM ET
Robert Morris vs New Mexico St · 2:30 PM ET
S Indiana at Texas · 3:00 PM ET
West Florida at South Alabama · 3:00 PM ET
Troy vs Nicholls · 3:00 PM ET
Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma St · 3:30 PM ET
UAlbany vs Mercyhurst · 3:30 PM ET
McNeese at Texas St · 3:30 PM ET
UC Irvine vs LMU · 4:30 PM ET
IU Indy vs MD Eastern · 4:30 PM ET
Richmond vs Liberty · 4:30 PM ET
NJIT at Boston College · 5:00 PM ET
Fullerton at Portland St · 5:00 PM ET
UNC Asheville at Samford · 5:00 PM ET
Rice vs Lamar · 5:00 PM ET
Utah vs Minnesota · 6:00 PM ET
Southern Miss vs Valparaiso · 6:00 PM ET
CA Baptist vs Portland · 7:00 PM ET
Rhode Island vs UAB · 7:00 PM ET
Delaware at UCLA · 7:00 PM ET
Louisiana at USC · 8:00 PM ET
Seattle U vs UC San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
San José St vs Loyola Chicago · 11:59 PM ET

← Sat, Nov 21 · Mon, Nov 23 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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