CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteTD Arena, Charleston, SCCharleston Classic

Dayton

Efficiency #62

2025-26: 25-12 · 14-7 conf

Northwestern

Efficiency #78

2025-26: 15-19 · 7-16 conf

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET

71.4

win 53%

Projected

70.5

win 47%

No line posted yet.

Model: DAY −0.9 · total 141.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Northwestern 66.9, Dayton 67.8 → 66.4 possessions

−4.2

Northwestern offense vs Dayton defense

−1.5

Dayton offense vs Northwestern defense

−0.6

Projected total

141.9

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Northwestern offense vs Dayton defense

−1.5

Dayton offense vs Northwestern defense

+0.6

Dayton by 0.9

0.9

Dayton side ◂▸ Northwestern side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Northwestern.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Dayton is the faster team (67.6, #216 of 365) and Northwestern the slower (65.3, #322). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

141.9

model

Projected team totals

71.4 / 70.5

Dayton / Northwestern

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.8#222

Dayton

66.9#299

Northwestern

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashDayton

Style match: ball movement

Dayton assists on 59.1% of its made baskets; Northwestern allows assists on 63.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 64.2% — both habits push the same way.

Pace

Half-court grind

Northwestern averages 65.3 possessions per 40, Dayton 67.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashNorthwestern

Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers

Northwestern (#11 in live-ball turnovers) against Dayton (#23 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.2%. Historically Dayton's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).

ClashNorthwestern

Strength vs strength: turnover rate

Northwestern (#7 in turnover rate) against Dayton (#11 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 17.3%. Historically Dayton's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).

ClashNorthwestern

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

Northwestern (#10 in shot-blocking exposure) against Dayton (#49 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 9.9%. Historically Dayton's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

Dayton has the ball

OffenseNorthwestern allowsvs D1 avg

51.6% #168

51.0% #157

+0.0 pt/100

16.9% #195

17.5% #119

-0.7 pt/100

26.9% #298

34.7% #332

-0.2 pt/100

46.2% #2

34.8% #172

+0.7 pt/100

75.4% #71

—

+0.3 pt/100

Dayton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.0 pts/100

Northwestern has the ball

OffenseDayton allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #159

51.0% #164

+0.2 pt/100

13.0% #7

21.0% #11

-0.7 pt/100

28.1% #260

28.8% #94

-1.5 pt/100

33.9% #213

35.5% #194

-0.0 pt/100

75.1% #80

—

+0.2 pt/100

Northwestern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Daytonoffense vsNorthwesterndefense

Share of shots by zone

Dayton shoots

42.8

6.3

9.8

41.1

Northwestern allows

37.9

6.1

16.5

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.8%#122	60.5%#248	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	27.4%#360	33.6%#38	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.3%#326	38.8%#190	38.0%
Three	33.9%#182	33.4%#145	33.7%

Northwesternoffense vsDaytondefense

Share of shots by zone

Northwestern shoots

35.0

7.2

23.9

34.0

Dayton allows

37.3

9.9

12.5

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.4%#47	57.9%#143	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#233	34.8%#54	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#66	37.1%#134	38.0%
Three	33.0%#232	35.4%#270	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Dayton

+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#19 of 365

Off reb %

26.9%

#298

Def reb %

71.2%

#94

Turnover %

16.9%

#195

Forced TO %

21.0%

#11

FT rate

46.2%

FT allowed

35.5%

#194

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers+2.9

Foul shots drawn+2.9

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Northwestern

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#140 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#260

Def reb %

65.3%

#332

Turnover %

13.0%

Forced TO %

17.5%

#119

FT rate

33.9%

#213

FT allowed

34.8%

#172

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security+2.6

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+0.1

Dayton has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#19 of 365) to Northwestern’s +0.9 (#140).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Dayton2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Javon Bennett	G	Sr	5'10"	37-37	34.5	15.8	2.2	2.9	1.4	49.0%	34.7%	7.0	89.8%	27.3%
7	Keonte Jones	G	Sr	6'6"	37-37	30.2	7.7	5.3	2.2	1.4	53.9%	31.7%	1.1	63.1%	16.1%
29	Amael L'Etang	F	So	7'1"	33-31	25.5	11.9	5.9	1.6	2.1	55.7%	36.1%	2.9	76.5%	27.6%
4	Jordan Derkack	G	Sr	6'5"	32-14	24.8	9.2	4.8	2.5	1.7	40.9%	27.6%	1.8	72.2%	24.8%
10	Bryce Heard	G	So	6'6"	36-6	18.4	6.6	2.4	0.8	0.8	51.9%	36.6%	2.0	79.1%	20.5%
3	Jaiun Simon	F	So	6'6"	36-16	18.3	5.6	3.3	1.2	0.8	53.7%	40.0%	1.0	80.5%	17.7%
24	Jacob Conner	F	Sr	6'10"	36-8	17.0	3.2	2.3	1.1	0.6	50.0%	29.7%	1.8	63.0%	12.8%
1	Malcolm Thomas	F	Fr	6'8"	26-0	8.7	4.0	1.5	0.3	0.7	54.8%	33.3%	0.7	56.8%	29.2%
22	Damon Friery	F	Fr	6'9"	16-0	5.6	1.8	1.2	0.1	0.2	44.4%	35.3%	1.1	50.0%	22.5%
50	Sean Pouedet	G	Fr	6'2"	14-0	5.4	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.4	38.9%	25.0%	0.3	100.0%	12.9%
11	Evan Dickey	G	Jr	6'3"	4-0	2.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	14.6%
33	Makai Grant	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.5	0.0	0.2	0.0	37.5%	33.3%	0.5	—	33.9%
25	Will Maxwell	G	Jr	6'4"	4-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	15.6%
8	Jaron McKie	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Northwestern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Jayden Reid	G	Jr	5'10"	34-28	25.8	10.1	1.4	5.0	1.9	44.5%	31.7%	3.0	82.0%	28.3%
8	Tre Singleton	F	Fr	6'8"	34-31	25.0	7.6	4.8	1.5	1.0	50.0%	16.7%	1.6	73.8%	19.5%
44	Angelo Ciaravino	G	So	6'6"	33-18	22.0	6.3	3.9	1.2	0.4	54.6%	25.6%	1.3	58.3%	17.0%
3	Jake West	G	Fr	6'3"	33-17	21.8	5.3	0.8	2.8	1.0	49.4%	36.4%	2.3	77.4%	17.4%
22	Arrinten Page	F	Jr	6'11"	29-16	22.8	10.2	4.5	1.8	1.2	57.2%	25.0%	1.5	65.6%	26.2%
11	Jordan Clayton	G	Jr	6'2"	31-10	18.3	3.9	1.7	1.4	0.5	57.7%	41.0%	2.5	53.3%	12.9%
1	Tyler Kropp	F	Fr	6'9"	31-10	11.9	3.1	2.1	0.3	0.3	46.1%	27.3%	0.4	92.3%	16.6%
10	Max Green	G	So	6'6"	23-4	14.8	4.3	1.8	1.0	0.3	48.5%	33.8%	3.0	60.0%	19.5%
20	Justin Mullins	G	Sr	6'6"	24-3	13.5	3.2	1.6	0.8	0.6	53.2%	32.3%	1.3	50.0%	16.4%
24	K.J. Windham	G	So	6'3"	13-0	13.3	3.8	1.5	1.2	0.2	45.7%	33.3%	2.8	100.0%	17.8%
13	Phoenix Gill	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.2	12.5%	0.0%	0.4	75.0%	18.6%
54	Gus Hurlburt	F	Jr	6'9"	2-0	2.0	2.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	26.4%
43	Blake Smith	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Dayton2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Javon Bennett	G	Sr	5'10"	37-37	34.5	15.8	2.2	2.9	1.4	49.0%	34.7%	7.0	89.8%	27.3%
7	Keonte Jones	G	Sr	6'6"	37-37	30.2	7.7	5.3	2.2	1.4	53.9%	31.7%	1.1	63.1%	16.1%
29	Amael L'Etang	F	So	7'1"	33-31	25.5	11.9	5.9	1.6	2.1	55.7%	36.1%	2.9	76.5%	27.6%
4	Jordan Derkack	G	Sr	6'5"	32-14	24.8	9.2	4.8	2.5	1.7	40.9%	27.6%	1.8	72.2%	24.8%
10	Bryce Heard	G	So	6'6"	36-6	18.4	6.6	2.4	0.8	0.8	51.9%	36.6%	2.0	79.1%	20.5%
3	Jaiun Simon	F	So	6'6"	36-16	18.3	5.6	3.3	1.2	0.8	53.7%	40.0%	1.0	80.5%	17.7%
24	Jacob Conner	F	Sr	6'10"	36-8	17.0	3.2	2.3	1.1	0.6	50.0%	29.7%	1.8	63.0%	12.8%
1	Malcolm Thomas	F	Fr	6'8"	26-0	8.7	4.0	1.5	0.3	0.7	54.8%	33.3%	0.7	56.8%	29.2%
22	Damon Friery	F	Fr	6'9"	16-0	5.6	1.8	1.2	0.1	0.2	44.4%	35.3%	1.1	50.0%	22.5%
50	Sean Pouedet	G	Fr	6'2"	14-0	5.4	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.4	38.9%	25.0%	0.3	100.0%	12.9%
11	Evan Dickey	G	Jr	6'3"	4-0	2.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	14.6%
33	Makai Grant	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.5	0.0	0.2	0.0	37.5%	33.3%	0.5	—	33.9%
25	Will Maxwell	G	Jr	6'4"	4-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	15.6%
8	Jaron McKie	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Dayton

Against the spread

Season

17-18-2

Home

8-10

Road

6-6-1

Last 10

5-3-2

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 2 pushesCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-24

Home

4-14

Road

6-7

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −11.4

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 25	Illinois StAdjEM #80	H	L 55–61	−7.0	L−13.0	140.0	U116	87.6	97.2	62.8
Mar 21	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	A	W 80–61	−3.5	W+15.5	138.5	O141	125.8	95.9	63.6
Mar 18	BradleyAdjEM #117	A	W 80–66	−2.5	W+11.5	141.0	O146	133.9	110.4	59.8
Mar 15	VCUAdjEM #39	N	L 62–70	+2.5	L−5.5	138.5	U132	96.0	108.4	64.6
Mar 14	Saint LouisAdjEM #20	N	W 70–69	+5.0	W+6.0	145.5	U139	102.3	100.8	68.4
Mar 13	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	N	W 68–63	−5.0	P0.0	142.0	U131	103.3	95.7	65.8
Mar 6	VCUAdjEM #39	H	L 62–68	−1.5	L−7.5	147.0	U130	102.2	112.1	60.6
Mar 3	RichmondAdjEM #150	A	W 65–60	−5.0	P0.0	145.0	U125	105.1	97.0	61.8
Feb 27	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	A	W 68–66	+2.5	W+4.5	152.0	U134	101.7	98.7	66.9
Feb 24	#23Saint LouisAdjEM #20	H	W 77–62	+3.5	W+18.5	157.5	U139	110.9	89.3	69.4

Northwestern

Against the spread

Season

18-16

Home

7-10

Road

6-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.8

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 7 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-19

Home

8-9

Road

4-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.5

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	#18PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 68–81	+13.5	W+0.5	140.0	O149	114.4	136.3	59.4
Mar 11	IndianaAdjEM #45	N	W 74–61	+6.0	W+19.0	142.0	U135	121.9	100.5	60.7
Mar 10	Penn StateAdjEM #194	N	W 76–66	−5.0	W+5.0	144.5	U142	119.6	103.9	63.6
Mar 7	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	A	L 66–67	+4.0	W+3.0	133.5	U133	119.7	121.5	55.1
Mar 4	#15PurdueAdjEM #9	H	L 66–70	+10.5	W+6.5	145.5	U136	114.9	121.8	57.5
Feb 28	OregonAdjEM #143	H	W 63–62	−3.5	L−2.5	142.5	U125	98.9	97.3	63.7
Feb 24	IndianaAdjEM #45	A	W 72–68	+8.5	W+12.5	146.0	U140	117.8	111.3	61.1
Feb 18	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	W 78–74	−8.0	L−4.0	142.5	O152	118.3	112.2	65.9
Feb 14	#7NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 49–68	+13.5	L−5.5	145.5	U117	76.0	105.5	64.5
Feb 11	#2MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 75–87	+15.0	W+3.0	153.5	O162	100.4	116.4	74.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

DaytonNorthwestern

Efficiency

109.9

112.5

102.2

106.2

67.8

66.9

—

Shooting

51.6%

51.7%

52.1%

52.9%

33.9%

33.0%

75.4%

75.1%

46.2%

33.9%

Ball control & glass

16.9%

13.0%

21.0%

17.5%

26.9%

28.1%

28.8%

34.7%

9.9%

7.3%

11.4%

6.4%

Style

41.4%

34.0%

41.6%

44.0%

14.1%

15.6%

59.1%

65.8%

27.4%

31.7%

Roster

3.13

2.14

6'5.6"

6'4.9"

85.2%

82.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Dayton

Returning minutes: 85.2%Returning production: 82.2%

Lost

De'Shayne Montgomery 29.8 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to Louisville

Added

Jaron McKie no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Northwestern

Returning minutes: 82.8%Returning production: 74.0%

Lost

Nick Martinelli 34.6 mpg, 22.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Blake Smith no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.