CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteColonial Hall, White Sulphur Springs, WVGreenbrier Tip-Off
Rhode Island
Efficiency #137
2025-26: 16-16 · 7-12 conf
vs
UAB
Efficiency #111
2025-26: 20-12 · 11-8 conf
Sun, Nov 22 · 7:00 PM ET
71.3
win 48%
Projected
72.0
win 52%
No line posted yet.
Model: UAB −0.6 · total 143.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UAB 69.6, Rhode Island 67.3 → 68.6 possessions
+0.6
UAB offense vs Rhode Island defense
−2.5
Rhode Island offense vs UAB defense
−3.1
Projected total
143.3
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UAB offense vs Rhode Island defense
−2.5
Rhode Island offense vs UAB defense
+3.1
UAB by 0.6
0.6
Rhode Island side ◂▸ UAB side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.2 against a projected 143.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UAB.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UAB is the faster team (70.4, #78 of 365) and Rhode Island the slower (66.0, #295). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.3
model
Projected team totals
71.3 / 72.0
Rhode Island / UAB
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.3#267
Rhode Island
69.6#77
UAB

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUAB
Where UAB struggles: shooting
UAB shoots an effective 48.4% (#305); Rhode Island allows 50.4% (#124). Expect about 49.1%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (UAB, Rhode Island) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Rhode Island at about 42.5% of its shots from three, UAB about 33.6%.
AdvantageRhode Island
Where Rhode Island struggles: shooting
Rhode Island shoots an effective 50.1% (#231); UAB allows 50.0% (#98). Expect about 50.0%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.
ClashUAB
Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers
UAB (#44 in live-ball turnovers) against Rhode Island (#15 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.0%. Historically Rhode Island's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).
ClashUAB
Strength vs strength: turnover rate
UAB (#2 in turnover rate) against Rhode Island (#10 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 17.1%. Historically Rhode Island's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).
Rhode Island has the ball
OffenseUAB allowsvs D1 avg
50.1% #231
50.0% #98
-1.9 pt/100
19.2% #329
16.1% #215
-1.2 pt/100
31.0% #163
27.7% #53
-0.5 pt/100
38.4% #92
28.7% #38
-0.3 pt/100
72.1% #206
—
-0.0 pt/100
Rhode Island net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.9 pts/100
UAB has the ball
OffenseRhode Island allowsvs D1 avg
48.4% #305
50.4% #124
-3.0 pt/100
12.5% #2
21.1% #10
-0.4 pt/100
32.5% #104
31.8% #247
+1.3 pt/100
36.4% #141
42.6% #331
+0.6 pt/100
70.6% #251
—
-0.2 pt/100
UAB net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Rhode Islandoffense vsUABdefense
Share of shots by zone
Rhode Island shoots
UAB allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.1%#26958.6%#17158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.2%#19237.9%#13339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.5%#4935.5%#9238.0%
Three31.1%#31832.6%#9533.7%
UABoffense vsRhode Islanddefense
Share of shots by zone
UAB shoots
Rhode Island allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.8%#10155.3%#7158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.3%#34734.0%#4439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.2%#28231.0%#1038.0%
Three27.8%#36434.7%#23233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Rhode Island
+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#175 of 365
Off reb %
31.0%
#163
Def reb %
68.2%
#247
Turnover %
19.2%
#329
Forced TO %
21.1%
#10
FT rate
38.4%
#92
FT allowed
42.6%
#331
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers+3.0
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed−1.9
UAB
+6.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#11 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#104
Def reb %
72.3%
#53
Turnover %
12.5%
#2
Forced TO %
16.1%
#215
FT rate
36.4%
#141
FT allowed
28.7%
#38
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+2.9
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.4
Foul shots allowed+1.7

UAB has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.2 (#11 of 365) to Rhode Island’s +0.1 (#175).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Rhode Island2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Rhode Island's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
23Tyler CochranGSr6'4"32-3130.915.46.21.82.150.3%33.5%5.172.3%31.6%
5Jonah HintonGJr6'3"29-2732.412.63.02.12.048.0%31.9%8.281.9%26.3%
40Keeyan ItejereFSr6'9"32-3228.57.65.70.51.464.8%—0.068.6%15.1%
20Myles CoreyGSr6'1"32-3125.49.33.11.71.554.2%24.3%2.373.3%22.6%
22RJ JohnsonGSr6'1"30-925.05.71.73.71.543.2%28.0%1.791.8%17.3%
0Jahmere TrippFJr6'6"27-1024.612.04.31.51.953.3%41.0%3.173.6%30.2%
8Alex CrawfordFSr6'8"32-1919.45.03.30.21.144.8%27.3%2.148.8%20.4%
7Jalen HarperGFr6'3"26-111.72.61.80.30.538.7%28.6%1.367.9%17.4%
21Damone KingGFr6'2"22-07.72.30.50.20.347.9%25.9%1.285.7%20.0%
55Drissa TraoreFSr6'8"22-07.51.21.30.10.537.0%14.3%0.635.3%16.7%
35Mouhamed SowFSr6'9"5-020.06.45.60.20.651.9%20.0%1.062.5%19.1%
10Barrett LoerGFr6'6"5-03.61.40.60.20.435.7%25.0%0.8100.0%32.6%
30Jimmy BallGSr6'2"1-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
11Javon PerryFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Jaymien AponteGSo6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Miftah IbiyemiGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
17Moek IckeCFr7'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Rhode IslandUAB
Efficiency
106.3
109.0
104.4
106.2
67.3
69.6
—
—
Shooting
50.1%
48.4%
52.8%
51.3%
31.1%
27.8%
72.1%
70.6%
38.4%
36.4%
Ball control & glass
19.2%
12.5%
21.1%
16.1%
31.0%
32.5%
31.8%
27.7%
11.9%
8.1%
10.2%
9.7%
Style
43.5%
30.5%
40.5%
50.7%
16.5%
19.6%
47.9%
50.3%
29.0%
29.9%
Roster
3.52
2.89
6'4.5"
6'4.7"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Rhode Island
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Rhode Island's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UAB
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UAB's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.