CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceViking Pavilion, Portland, OR
Fullerton
Efficiency #205
2025-26: 18-16 · 13-9 conf
@
Portland St
Efficiency #145
2025-26: 20-11 · 14-6 conf
Sun, Nov 22 · 5:00 PM ET
72.5
win 30%
Projected
78.7
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: PRST −6.2 · total 151.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Portland St 68.6, Fullerton 72.0 → 72.3 possessions
+8.6
Portland St offense vs Fullerton defense
−1.8
Fullerton offense vs Portland St defense
−3.8
Projected total
151.3
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Portland St offense vs Fullerton defense
−1.8
Fullerton offense vs Portland St defense
+3.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
Portland St by 6.2
6.2
Fullerton side ◂▸ Portland St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.2 against a projected 151.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Portland St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Fullerton is the faster team (75.5, #2 of 365) and Portland St the slower (69.0, #147). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
72.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.3
model
Projected team totals
72.5 / 78.7
Fullerton / Portland St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.0#4
Fullerton
68.6#157
Portland St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
Portland St averages 69.0 possessions per 40, Fullerton 75.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 74 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageFullerton
Where Fullerton struggles: the offensive glass
Fullerton rebounds 24.6% of its own misses (#345); Portland St lets opponents grab 26.4% of their own misses (#23). Expect about 24.4%, 6.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantagePortland St
Where Portland St struggles: ball control
Portland St turns it over on 16.9% of possessions (#200); Fullerton forces turnovers on 19.5% of opponent possessions (#35). Expect about 18.6%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
ClashPortland St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Portland St rarely shoots threes (34.4% of its shots); Fullerton lets opponents take 46.4% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 39.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Fullerton has the ball
OffensePortland St allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #180
48.8% #56
-1.7 pt/100
15.2% #79
18.0% #95
+0.1 pt/100
24.6% #345
26.4% #23
-3.7 pt/100
37.8% #107
42.8% #337
+0.7 pt/100
71.6% #218
—
-0.1 pt/100
Fullerton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.6 pts/100
Portland St has the ball
OffenseFullerton allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #211
54.3% #307
+1.6 pt/100
16.9% #200
19.5% #35
-2.2 pt/100
30.0% #199
28.3% #80
-0.8 pt/100
37.1% #126
35.3% #188
+0.1 pt/100
71.0% #238
—
-0.1 pt/100
Portland St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Fullertonoffense vsPortland Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Fullerton shoots
Portland St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.2%#22255.3%#6958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.4%#11339.4%#16939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.5%#20536.2%#11838.0%
Three34.2%#16232.3%#7733.7%
Portland Stoffense vsFullertondefense
Share of shots by zone
Portland St shoots
Fullerton allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.0%#23964.6%#34758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.5%#25747.0%#33139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.7%#24438.5%#18038.0%
Three32.6%#25034.0%#18533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Fullerton
+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#77 of 365
Off reb %
24.6%
#345
Def reb %
71.7%
#80
Turnover %
15.2%
#79
Forced TO %
19.5%
#35
FT rate
37.8%
#107
FT allowed
35.3%
#188
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.9
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed0.0
Portland St
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#153 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#199
Def reb %
73.6%
#23
Turnover %
16.9%
#200
Forced TO %
18.0%
#95
FT rate
37.1%
#126
FT allowed
42.8%
#337
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−1.9

Fullerton has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#77 of 365) to Portland St’s +0.6 (#153).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Fullerton2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Fullerton's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Joshua WardGSr6'1"34-3430.914.54.53.52.050.3%30.9%4.475.1%25.8%
13Jefferson De La Cruz MonegroGSr6'3"33-3329.011.94.62.31.046.9%28.6%3.889.0%21.4%
7Christian WilliamsGFr6'0"34-3026.19.23.52.21.454.0%37.2%5.183.3%19.4%
12Bryce CofieldGFr6'6"34-2221.310.14.82.42.247.4%15.8%1.159.5%30.1%
99Landon SeamanFSr6'8"34-620.712.03.31.21.159.8%36.0%2.661.5%27.9%
24Kendrick De LunaFJr6'10"34-2817.54.72.51.10.950.4%100.0%0.069.6%15.5%
32Jaden HendersonGSr6'3"32-117.87.62.51.71.153.2%36.8%3.375.0%23.8%
2KJ GarrisGFr6'5"29-015.98.23.40.70.460.7%42.5%3.069.2%23.1%
8Bailey NunnGJr6'0"22-419.15.42.11.50.654.7%42.6%3.189.3%13.9%
1Davis WhiteGJr6'5"28-1213.43.31.70.40.648.8%29.7%2.664.3%14.9%
33Ben WinkerGFr6'10"7-05.01.02.00.40.475.0%—0.012.5%14.8%
22Matthew QuinlanGFr6'0"7-03.02.10.10.00.365.0%37.5%1.1100.0%29.7%
11Cam SmithGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Karan KolappaGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Kidus TilahunGSo6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Nicholas KhatchikianGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Yesan WarrenGSo6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
FullertonPortland St
Efficiency
107.6
105.4
109.1
104.1
72.0
68.6
—
—
Shooting
51.4%
50.6%
51.4%
51.5%
34.2%
32.6%
71.6%
71.0%
37.8%
37.1%
Ball control & glass
15.2%
16.9%
19.5%
18.0%
24.6%
30.0%
28.3%
26.4%
8.2%
9.5%
8.5%
7.4%
Style
43.1%
34.4%
39.4%
48.2%
20.5%
12.5%
55.2%
51.2%
37.8%
28.6%
Roster
2.86
3.32
6'3.8"
6'6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Fullerton
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Fullerton's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Portland St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Portland St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.