CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteAcrisure Arena, Palm Springs, CAAcrisure Series

San José St

Efficiency #282

2025-26: 9-24 · 4-18 conf

Loyola Chicago

Efficiency #309

2025-26: 9-24 · 5-15 conf

Sun, Nov 22 · 11:59 PM ET

74.0

win 54%

Projected

72.8

win 46%

No line posted yet.

Model: SJSU −1.2 · total 146.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Loyola Chicago 67.2, San José St 66.7 → 65.6 possessions

−5.8

Loyola Chicago offense vs San José St defense

+1.6

San José St offense vs Loyola Chicago defense

+2.8

Projected total

146.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Loyola Chicago offense vs San José St defense

+1.6

San José St offense vs Loyola Chicago defense

−2.8

San José St by 1.2

1.2

San José St side ◂▸ Loyola Chicago side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.8 against a projected 146.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Loyola Chicago.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Loyola Chicago is the faster team (65.9, #299 of 365) and San José St the slower (65.7, #305). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.9

model

Projected team totals

74.0 / 72.8

San José St / Loyola Chicago

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.7#306

San José St

67.2#271

Loyola Chicago

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSan José St

Where San José St scores: ball control

San José St turns it over on 15.1% of possessions (#77); Loyola Chicago forces turnovers on 12.9% of opponent possessions (#357). Expect about 13.4%, 3.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

Loyola Chicago averages 65.9 possessions per 40, San José St 65.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageLoyola Chicago

Where Loyola Chicago scores: shooting

Loyola Chicago shoots an effective 49.8% (#246); San José St allows 57.1% (#359). Expect about 53.4%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashLoyola Chicago

Style match: ball movement

Loyola Chicago assists on 60.8% of its made baskets; San José St allows assists on 57.7% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.2% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversLoyola Chicago

Loyola Chicago turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.9% is worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions against Loyola Chicago's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Loyola Chicago's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect San José St at about 41.6% of its shots from three, Loyola Chicago about 45.9%.

San José St has the ball

OffenseLoyola Chicago allowsvs D1 avg

49.7% #255

52.0% #214

-0.8 pt/100

15.1% #77

12.9% #357

+4.1 pt/100

29.3% #225

29.7% #146

-0.7 pt/100

33.4% #225

33.6% #143

-0.2 pt/100

73.8% #140

—

+0.1 pt/100

San José St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Loyola Chicago has the ball

OffenseSan José St allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #246

57.1% #359

+3.0 pt/100

19.8% #343

17.4% #122

-2.6 pt/100

30.5% #179

36.5% #354

+1.8 pt/100

34.8% #188

35.3% #189

+0.0 pt/100

67.3% #340

—

-0.5 pt/100

Loyola Chicago net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

San José Stoffense vsLoyola Chicagodefense

Share of shots by zone

San José St shoots

30.9

8.5

22.5

38.1

Loyola Chicago allows

34.6

6.4

14.6

44.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.9%#278	54.2%#43	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.6%#321	42.5%#239	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.2%#76	39.3%#212	38.0%
Three	35.3%#97	36.8%#342	33.7%

Loyola Chicagooffense vsSan José Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Loyola Chicago shoots

37.2

6.5

9.6

46.7

San José St allows

43.3

7.2

10.9

38.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.0%#199	66.2%#360	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.2%#284	39.7%#181	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.6%#130	42.4%#314	38.0%
Three	31.7%#296	36.0%#305	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

San José St

−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#235 of 365

Off reb %

29.3%

#225

Def reb %

63.5%

#354

Turnover %

15.1%

#77

Forced TO %

17.4%

#122

FT rate

33.4%

#225

FT allowed

35.3%

#189

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding−1.9

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+0.5

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed0.0

Loyola Chicago

−3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#329 of 365

Off reb %

30.5%

#179

Def reb %

70.3%

#146

Turnover %

19.8%

#343

Forced TO %

12.9%

#357

FT rate

34.8%

#188

FT allowed

33.6%

#143

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−2.0

Forcing turnovers−2.6

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed+0.4

San José St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.1 (#235 of 365) to Loyola Chicago’s −3.9 (#329).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

San José St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Melvin Bell Jr.	G	Fr	6'4"	33-24	33.4	8.7	4.1	0.5	1.2	44.9%	27.0%	1.9	62.4%	18.0%
13	Jermaine Washington	G	So	6'1"	25-24	34.7	11.5	1.8	2.9	1.7	51.0%	36.7%	5.9	62.3%	22.0%
1	Adrian Myers	F	So	6'6"	28-22	28.5	11.1	4.9	1.0	1.0	52.1%	37.2%	4.6	72.7%	23.9%
99	Sadraque NgaNga	F	Sr	6'10"	32-26	24.3	7.8	4.1	0.6	1.4	48.8%	35.8%	3.0	82.6%	22.1%
7	Pasha Goodarzi	G	So	6'3"	19-10	26.1	8.2	1.9	0.9	0.8	52.9%	40.7%	4.8	93.1%	18.9%
32	Yaphet Moundi	F	Sr	6'8"	13-11	26.7	12.5	7.6	1.4	1.7	52.6%	20.0%	0.4	73.8%	27.1%
11	Ben Roseborough	G	Fr	6'4"	11-9	27.6	12.0	1.6	1.1	0.8	50.0%	41.1%	5.1	82.1%	26.3%
24	Douglas Langford	F	Fr	6'7"	27-5	10.9	1.6	2.4	0.3	0.6	39.5%	0.0%	0.1	57.1%	13.6%
33	Marcus Overstreet	F	Jr	6'9"	26-4	10.5	2.8	3.2	0.3	0.5	54.2%	—	0.0	52.6%	18.1%
21	Japhet Moupadele	F	Fr	6'8"	23-1	11.6	2.7	1.6	0.7	0.7	44.6%	23.5%	1.5	45.5%	19.5%
2	JaVaughn Hannah	G	Sr	6'3"	2-2	22.0	7.5	1.0	0.5	1.5	63.6%	40.0%	2.5	33.3%	19.9%
14	Eren Karakaya	C	Fr	6'10"	3-0	7.7	2.3	1.7	0.0	0.3	60.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.6%
17	Jaden Goodall	F	Fr	6'6"	3-0	4.7	1.7	0.7	0.3	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	50.0%	20.7%
20	Christian Wise	F	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Damase Coly	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Loyola Chicago2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Loyola Chicago's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Miles Rubin	C	Jr	6'10"	33-33	29.7	11.3	7.1	2.3	2.0	58.5%	0.0%	0.0	54.3%	23.9%
0	Deywilk Tavarez	G	Jr	6'2"	33-17	22.9	8.9	2.3	1.8	1.5	46.2%	31.4%	6.4	88.6%	28.0%
4	Kayde Dotson	G	So	6'1"	28-21	26.6	10.5	2.8	2.0	1.6	53.0%	38.0%	5.8	77.0%	25.2%
1	Justin Moore	G	Jr	6'3"	22-22	30.0	10.9	2.2	3.8	3.0	45.8%	29.8%	3.8	74.0%	27.8%
2	Joshua Ola-Joseph	F	Sr	6'7"	29-9	21.5	7.6	3.8	0.7	0.9	47.7%	28.4%	3.3	75.3%	22.6%
28	Kymany Houinsou	G	Sr	6'7"	20-20	25.4	6.0	4.2	3.0	2.1	55.3%	41.7%	0.6	64.9%	17.3%
13	Xavier Amos	F	Sr	6'8"	19-18	26.2	11.1	4.3	0.7	1.3	47.5%	30.3%	4.7	73.3%	27.4%
8	Nic Anderson	G	Fr	6'4"	27-5	17.3	5.1	2.4	0.5	0.8	42.1%	27.7%	2.4	57.8%	22.6%
9	Alexander Richardson	C	Sr	6'9"	30-5	12.9	3.3	3.8	0.7	0.7	57.7%	0.0%	0.0	47.4%	17.5%
5	Daniil Glazkov	G	So	6'6"	26-2	12.7	2.7	1.9	0.5	0.5	52.6%	37.5%	1.5	50.0%	14.8%
10	Chuck Love	G	Fr	6'7"	13-7	24.8	7.2	2.6	1.0	0.7	52.7%	32.8%	4.5	78.9%	17.9%
14	Caleb Reese	G	Sr	5'11"	18-4	12.9	1.7	1.4	1.4	1.1	30.9%	15.8%	1.1	52.9%	15.8%
30	Brayden Young	F	Fr	6'9"	11-0	4.7	0.4	1.0	0.1	0.4	66.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	9.8%
7	Dominick Harris	G	Sr	6'3"	7-2	6.4	1.4	0.6	0.3	0.3	28.1%	21.4%	2.0	50.0%	25.3%
31	Zachary Royster	F	Sr	6'7"	7-0	2.9	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.1	50.0%	25.0%	0.6	—	18.9%
22	Sam Yurasek	G	Jr	6'3"	3-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

San José St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Melvin Bell Jr.	G	Fr	6'4"	33-24	33.4	8.7	4.1	0.5	1.2	44.9%	27.0%	1.9	62.4%	18.0%
13	Jermaine Washington	G	So	6'1"	25-24	34.7	11.5	1.8	2.9	1.7	51.0%	36.7%	5.9	62.3%	22.0%
1	Adrian Myers	F	So	6'6"	28-22	28.5	11.1	4.9	1.0	1.0	52.1%	37.2%	4.6	72.7%	23.9%
99	Sadraque NgaNga	F	Sr	6'10"	32-26	24.3	7.8	4.1	0.6	1.4	48.8%	35.8%	3.0	82.6%	22.1%
7	Pasha Goodarzi	G	So	6'3"	19-10	26.1	8.2	1.9	0.9	0.8	52.9%	40.7%	4.8	93.1%	18.9%
32	Yaphet Moundi	F	Sr	6'8"	13-11	26.7	12.5	7.6	1.4	1.7	52.6%	20.0%	0.4	73.8%	27.1%
11	Ben Roseborough	G	Fr	6'4"	11-9	27.6	12.0	1.6	1.1	0.8	50.0%	41.1%	5.1	82.1%	26.3%
24	Douglas Langford	F	Fr	6'7"	27-5	10.9	1.6	2.4	0.3	0.6	39.5%	0.0%	0.1	57.1%	13.6%
33	Marcus Overstreet	F	Jr	6'9"	26-4	10.5	2.8	3.2	0.3	0.5	54.2%	—	0.0	52.6%	18.1%
21	Japhet Moupadele	F	Fr	6'8"	23-1	11.6	2.7	1.6	0.7	0.7	44.6%	23.5%	1.5	45.5%	19.5%
2	JaVaughn Hannah	G	Sr	6'3"	2-2	22.0	7.5	1.0	0.5	1.5	63.6%	40.0%	2.5	33.3%	19.9%
14	Eren Karakaya	C	Fr	6'10"	3-0	7.7	2.3	1.7	0.0	0.3	60.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.6%
17	Jaden Goodall	F	Fr	6'6"	3-0	4.7	1.7	0.7	0.3	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	50.0%	20.7%
20	Christian Wise	F	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Damase Coly	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

San José St

Against the spread

Season

15-16-1

Home

6-9

Road

7-5-1

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover +4.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as an underdogCovered 4 of 6 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

21-10-1

Home

11-4

Road

8-4-1

Last 10

10-0

avg vs total +14.4

Over 10 straightOver in 9 of 9 as an underdogOver in 6 of 6 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	New MexicoAdjEM #42	N	L 77–93	+15.5	L−0.5	154.5	O170	111.9	135.2	68.8
Mar 11	Boise StAdjEM #63	N	W 84–74	+14.5	W+24.5	146.0	O158	120.3	106.0	69.8
Mar 7	WyomingAdjEM #98	H	L 78–88	+5.5	L−4.5	148.0	O166	129.4	146.0	60.3
Mar 3	Fresno StAdjEM #169	A	L 68–82	+7.5	L−6.5	149.5	O150	99.7	120.2	68.2
Feb 28	Colorado StAdjEM #88	H	L 73–85	+8.0	L−4.0	145.5	O158	114.7	133.6	63.6
Feb 24	Air ForceAdjEM #360	A	W 86–80	−6.0	P0.0	145.0	O166	129.8	120.8	66.2
Feb 21	Boise StAdjEM #63	A	L 69–84	+17.5	W+2.5	146.0	O153	105.0	127.9	65.7
Feb 17	NevadaAdjEM #71	H	W 87–71	+11.0	W+27.0	141.5	O158	122.3	99.8	71.1
Feb 14	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	H	L 79–94	+11.5	L−3.5	139.0	O173	121.6	144.7	65.0
Feb 10	UNLVAdjEM #124	A	L 75–82	+13.0	W+6.0	150.0	O157	110.7	121.1	67.7

Loyola Chicago

Against the spread

Season

13-20

Home

6-10

Road

4-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.0

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-18

Home

7-9

Road

6-5

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −8.2

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	DavidsonAdjEM #112	N	L 59–64 OT	+5.5	W+0.5	132.5	U123	89.0	96.6	66.3
Mar 11	RichmondAdjEM #150	N	W 75–67	+4.5	W+12.5	141.5	O142	120.0	107.2	62.5
Mar 7	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	H	W 68–62	+9.5	W+15.5	148.0	U130	106.8	97.4	63.7
Mar 4	#25Saint LouisAdjEM #20	A	L 65–79	+21.5	W+7.5	155.0	U144	109.4	132.9	59.4
Feb 28	RichmondAdjEM #150	H	W 69–66	+2.5	W+5.5	146.5	U135	95.9	91.7	72.0
Feb 21	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	A	L 61–75	+9.5	L−4.5	142.0	U136	92.6	113.9	65.9
Feb 18	FordhamAdjEM #170	A	L 59–62	+8.0	W+5.0	136.5	U121	87.9	92.3	67.1
Feb 13	#18Saint LouisAdjEM #20	H	L 59–86	+18.0	L−9.0	156.0	U145	81.2	118.3	72.7
Feb 6	DavidsonAdjEM #112	A	L 64–84	+10.0	L−10.0	140.5	O148	101.8	133.6	62.9
Feb 3	La SalleAdjEM #256	H	W 71–61	−2.5	W+7.5	139.0	U132	104.5	89.8	68.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

San José StLoyola Chicago

Efficiency

109.0

104.3

115.1

112.3

66.7

67.2

—

Shooting

49.7%

49.8%

47.6%

51.9%

35.3%

31.7%

73.8%

67.3%

33.4%

34.8%

Ball control & glass

15.1%

19.8%

17.4%

12.9%

29.3%

30.5%

36.5%

29.7%

8.2%

10.9%

8.3%

13.9%

Style

38.3%

47.7%

38.6%

41.0%

10.6%

10.2%

42.2%

60.8%

22.5%

30.4%

Roster

2.11

2.93

6'5.4"

84.6%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

San José St

Returning minutes: 84.6%Returning production: 73.6%

Lost

Colby Garland 30.9 mpg, 17.8 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech

Added

Damase Coly no D1 minutes last season
Christian Wise no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Loyola Chicago

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Loyola Chicago's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Nov 26	2025-26	San José St 63 – 51 Loyola Chicago(N)

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.