Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Valparaiso Beacons basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 22 · 6:00 PM ET · Pensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, FL (neutral site)

Pensacola InvitationalNeutral siteNon-conferencePensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, FL

Southern Miss

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #219

Valparaiso

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #119

Sun, Nov 22 · 6:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Southern Miss is the faster team (70.3, #197 of 365) and Valparaiso the slower (65.1, #328). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.0

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.4#126

Southern Miss

68.2#319

Valparaiso

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Valparaiso has the ball+8.0

Southern Miss has the ball−12.9

Valparaiso has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 51.7% #157 · USM allows 56.9% #295+4.1

✓Gets to the lineFTR 48.8% #64 · USM allows 70.6% #355 · FT 64.4% #266+1.8

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.3% #31 · USM forces 21.3% #78 · ~12 turnovers+1.2

✓Wins second chancesOR% 27.6% #255 · USM allows 41.4% #324+0.9

Southern Miss has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 44.2% #276 · VAL allows 42.2% #45−7.5

✗Coughs it upTO% 25.6% #339 · VAL forces 18.4% #155 · ~16 turnovers−3.7

✗Few second chancesOR% 29.7% #216 · VAL allows 28.0% #124−1.2

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 42.3% #113 · VAL allows 47.8% #287 · FT 50.0% #350−0.5

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Southern Missoffense vsValparaisodefense

Share of shots by zone

Southern Miss shoots

21.6

10.8

45.9

Valparaiso allows

31.7

12.9

17.8

37.6

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	25.0%#357	56.3%#153	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	75.0%#17	61.5%#315	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	0.0%#327	11.1%#30	34.7%
Three	40.0%#56	21.4%#18	32.5%

Valparaisooffense vsSouthern Missdefense

Share of shots by zone

Valparaiso shoots

30.3

11.9

18.3

39.4

Southern Miss allows

58.8

17.6

5.9

17.6

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.6%#113	75.0%#340	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.2%#123	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	55.0%#39	50.0%#285	34.7%
Three	25.6%#295	33.3%#185	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Southern Miss

−14.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#337 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#216

Def reb %

58.6%

#324

Turnover %

25.6%

#339

Forced TO %

21.3%

#78

FT rate

42.3%

#113

FT allowed

70.6%

#355

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding−3.3

Ball security−5.2

Forcing turnovers+2.3

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed−8.5

Valparaiso

+4.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#112 of 365

Off reb %

27.6%

#255

Def reb %

72.0%

#124

Turnover %

12.3%

#31

Forced TO %

18.4%

#155

FT rate

48.8%

#64

FT allowed

47.8%

#287

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.3

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+4.2

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn+3.0

Foul shots allowed−2.6

Valparaiso has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.8 (#112 of 365) to Southern Miss’s −14.0 (#337).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Southern Miss2026-27 numbers

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage	Status
2	G	Sr	6'0"	2-2	24.5	8.0	2.0	3.0	1.5	42.3%	27.3%	5.5	83.3%	21.2%	Active
8	G	Sr	6'5"	2-2	23.5	10.5	3.0	1.0	4.0	55.3%	50.0%	5.0	—	31.6%	Active
10	G	Sr	6'6"	2-2	20.0	8.5	5.0	2.0	3.0	53.6%	33.3%	1.5	50.0%	29.8%	Active
20	G	Sr	6'5"	2-2	19.0	9.0	2.5	1.0	0.0	54.2%	50.0%	3.0	83.3%	21.5%	Active
6	F	Jr	6'8"	2-0	19.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	1.5	29.2%	16.7%	3.0	100.0%	23.9%	Active
49	C	Jr	7'0"	2-2	16.0	2.0	2.5	1.0	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	50.0%	8.5%	Active
24	F	Sr	6'8"	2-0	15.5	6.5	4.0	1.0	3.5	50.0%	0.0%	1.0	33.3%	35.7%	Active
1	G	Jr	6'4"	2-0	11.5	3.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	62.5%	50.0%	1.0	50.0%	16.5%	Active
0	G	So	6'6"	2-0	11.5	4.0	3.5	0.0	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.5	66.7%	16.2%	Active
23	G	Jr	6'5"	2-0	11.0	1.5	4.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	100.0%	0.5	—	9.8%	Active
4	G	Jr	6'6"	2-0	7.0	3.5	1.0	0.0	0.5	41.7%	25.0%	2.0	66.7%	32.4%	Active
22	F	Sr	6'9"	2-0	6.0	1.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	—	0.0	—	17.8%	Active
5	G	Fr	6'4"	2-0	5.5	4.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	64.3%	33.3%	1.5	0.0%	38.9%	Active
13	G	Fr	6'6"	2-0	5.0	1.5	0.5	0.5	0.0	20.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	31.5%	Active
7	C	Sr	6'11"	2-0	3.5	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	7.9%	Active
11	G	So	6'2"	1-0	3.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	100.0%	33.8%	Missed last

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Southern Miss

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +6.0

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg vs total −6.0

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	#18Iowa StateAdjEM #21	A	L 57–83	+32.0	W+6.0	146.0	U140	81.1	118.1	70.3
Nov 2	Tougaloo Bulldogs	H	W 82–35	—	—	—	—	106.4	45.4	77.1
Mar 8	TroyAdjEM #210	N	L 70–78	+5.5	L−2.5	143.0	O148	98.2	109.4	71.3
Mar 7	App StateAdjEM #155	N	W 86–73	+5.0	W+18.0	137.5	O159	125.4	106.5	68.6
Mar 6	Texas StAdjEM #190	N	W 81–77	+1.5	W+5.5	140.0	O158	117.3	111.5	69.0
Mar 5	James MadisonAdjEM #187	N	W 86–80	+2.0	W+8.0	143.5	O166	119.4	111.1	72.0
Feb 27	South AlabamaAdjEM #216	A	W 68–55	+4.0	W+17.0	142.0	U123	105.1	85.0	64.7
Feb 24	Arkansas StAdjEM #130	A	L 84–89	+9.0	W+4.0	158.0	O173	106.4	112.8	78.9
Feb 21	Old DominionAdjEM #147	H	W 86–81	−5.0	P0.0	148.0	O167	106.1	100.0	81.0
Feb 14	TroyAdjEM #210	H	W 69–65	+5.0	W+9.0	144.5	U134	104.4	98.3	66.1

Valparaiso

Against the spread

Season

2-0

Home

1-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

2-0

avg cover +13.0

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-1

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +9.0

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	PurdueAdjEM #28	A	W 83–80 2OT	+19.5	W+22.5	144.0	O163	107.2	103.4	77.4
Nov 2	W IllinoisAdjEM #359	H	W 80–58	−18.5	W+3.5	139.0	U138	115.6	83.8	69.2
Mar 6	BradleyAdjEM #169	N	L 84–90 2OT	+5.0	L−1.0	138.5	O174	95.8	102.6	87.7
Mar 5	Indiana StAdjEM #213	N	W 63–62	−2.5	L−1.5	142.0	U125	105.6	103.9	59.7
Feb 28	EvansvilleAdjEM #306	A	L 79–80	−5.0	L−6.0	138.0	O159	116.4	117.9	67.9
Feb 25	DrakeAdjEM #195	H	W 74–71	−3.0	P0.0	147.5	U145	116.3	111.6	63.6
Feb 21	UICAdjEM #103	A	W 71–67	+7.0	W+11.0	138.5	U138	110.6	104.3	64.2
Feb 18	BradleyAdjEM #169	H	W 79–72	+2.5	W+9.5	142.5	O151	119.0	108.5	66.4
Feb 15	Indiana StAdjEM #213	H	W 76–75	−5.0	L−4.0	145.0	O151	124.4	122.8	61.1
Feb 12	Illinois StAdjEM #104	A	L 64–86	+9.0	L−13.0	138.5	O150	93.6	125.8	68.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Southern MissValparaiso

Efficiency

102.2

106.1

105.7

101.9

71.4

68.2

18.9

-0.9

Shooting

44.2%

51.7%

34.4%

59.0%

40.0%

25.6%

50.0%

64.4%

42.3%

48.8%

Ball control & glass

25.6%

12.3%

21.3%

18.4%

29.7%

27.6%

41.4%

28.0%

14.2%

8.2%

28.1%

2.6%

Style

38.5%

35.5%

35.1%

44.2%

1.8%

8.6%

68.4%

40.4%

48.5%

36.9%

Roster

3.39

2.20

6'5.8"

6'5.9"

15.1%

47.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Southern Miss

Returning minutes: 15.1%Returning production: 15.6%

Lost

Tylik Weeks 32.6 mpg, 19.2 ppg · transferred to Memphis
Dylan Brumfield 31.2 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Djahi Binet 26.4 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Curt Lewis 23.2 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Israel Hart 21.0 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Chiante' Tramble 12.0 mpg, 3.5 ppg · transferred to N Colorado

Added

Cameron Wallace from Little Rock · 28.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg last season
Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt from Hampton · 23.8 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
Marcus Overstreet from San José St · 8.2 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
DeAndre Harvey no D1 minutes last season
Max Blank no D1 minutes last season
Dorion Bowen no D1 minutes last season

Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Valparaiso

Returning minutes: 47.4%Returning production: 50.3%

Lost

Owen Dease 26.9 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Shon Tupuola 24.6 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Murray St
Brody Whitaker 24.4 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Isaiah Barnes 11.7 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mark Brown Jr. 9.4 mpg, 2.0 ppg · transferred to Utah Tech
Tucker Tornatta 7.2 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to Bellarmine

Added

Bruno Alocen from Indiana St · 21.3 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
Kai Yu from Bradley · 7.1 mpg, 2.3 ppg last season
Hudson Scroggins no D1 minutes last season
Kobe Walker no D1 minutes last season
Dylan Moles no D1 minutes last season
Justin Curry II no D1 minutes last season

Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sun, Nov 22

Miami OH vs UIC · 12:00 PM ET
Butler vs Nebraska · 1:00 PM ET
Chicago St at Marquette · 1:00 PM ET
Towson at American · 1:00 PM ET
Fairfield at Long Island · 1:00 PM ET
Dayton vs Northwestern · 1:00 PM ET
W Illinois at Canisius · 1:00 PM ET
San Diego vs Fordham · 2:00 PM ET
William & Mary at Youngstown St · 2:00 PM ET
Evansville at Memphis · 2:00 PM ET
Wyoming vs Duquesne · 2:00 PM ET
UMass Lowell at Cincinnati · 2:00 PM ET
South Dakota vs Utah Tech · 2:00 PM ET
G Washington vs Western KY · 2:00 PM ET
Robert Morris vs New Mexico St · 2:30 PM ET
S Indiana at Texas · 3:00 PM ET
West Florida at South Alabama · 3:00 PM ET
Troy vs Nicholls · 3:00 PM ET
Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma St · 3:30 PM ET
UAlbany vs Mercyhurst · 3:30 PM ET
McNeese at Texas St · 3:30 PM ET
UC Irvine vs LMU · 4:30 PM ET
IU Indy vs MD Eastern · 4:30 PM ET
Richmond vs Liberty · 4:30 PM ET
NJIT at Boston College · 5:00 PM ET
Fullerton at Portland St · 5:00 PM ET
UNC Asheville at Samford · 5:00 PM ET
Rice vs Lamar · 5:00 PM ET
Utah vs Minnesota · 6:00 PM ET
CA Baptist vs Portland · 7:00 PM ET
Rhode Island vs UAB · 7:00 PM ET
Delaware at UCLA · 7:00 PM ET
Louisiana at USC · 8:00 PM ET
Seattle U vs UC San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
San José St vs Loyola Chicago · 11:59 PM ET

← Sat, Nov 21 · Mon, Nov 23 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.