Richmond Spiders vs Liberty Flames basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 22 · 4:30 PM ET · Colonial Hall, White Sulphur Springs, WV (neutral site)

Greenbrier Tip-OffNeutral siteNon-conferenceColonial Hall, White Sulphur Springs, WV

Richmond

3-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #86

Liberty

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #145

Sun, Nov 22 · 4:30 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Richmond is the faster team (73.5, #93 of 365) and Liberty the slower (65.9, #314). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.8

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

72.5#68

Richmond

67.9#328

Liberty

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Liberty has the ball−13.6

Richmond has the ball+7.1

Liberty has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 42.0% #308 · RICH allows 44.9% #80−7.5

✗Few second chancesOR% 23.7% #302 · RICH allows 26.9% #103−3.3

✗Coughs it upTO% 16.7% #141 · RICH forces 23.1% #50 · ~14 turnovers−1.9

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 26.8% #291 · RICH allows 32.2% #129 · FT 66.7% #229−0.9

Richmond has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 64.2% #13 · LIB allows 54.4% #246+10.1

✗Few second chancesOR% 29.5% #223 · LIB allows 29.0% #141−1.1

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 28.3% #272 · LIB allows 21.1% #24 · FT 73.5% #126−1.0

✗Coughs it upTO% 18.4% #195 · LIB forces 19.7% #113 · ~13 turnovers−0.9

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Richmondoffense vsLibertydefense

Share of shots by zone

Richmond shoots

47.8

6.7

8.9

36.7

Liberty allows

58.0

4.0

6.0

32.0

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	67.4%#78	65.5%#269	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	16.7%#299	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	25.0%#245	33.3%#155	34.7%
Three	47.8%#7	30.0%#126	32.5%

Libertyoffense vsRichmonddefense

Share of shots by zone

Liberty shoots

43.1

7.8

5.9

43.1

Richmond allows

36.0

5.3

6.7

52.0

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.1%#168	59.3%#188	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	25.0%#250	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.3%#174	20.0%#59	34.7%
Three	19.2%#352	22.6%#27	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Richmond

+3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#127 of 365

Off reb %

29.5%

#223

Def reb %

73.1%

#103

Turnover %

18.4%

#195

Forced TO %

23.1%

#50

FT rate

28.3%

#272

FT allowed

32.2%

#129

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding+1.6

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers+3.6

Foul shots drawn−2.4

Foul shots allowed+1.5

Liberty

+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#146 of 365

Off reb %

23.7%

#302

Def reb %

71.0%

#141

Turnover %

16.7%

#141

Forced TO %

19.7%

#113

FT rate

26.8%

#291

FT allowed

21.1%

#24

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.6

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+1.2

Foul shots drawn−2.8

Foul shots allowed+4.4

Richmond has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.5 (#127 of 365) to Liberty’s +2.2 (#146).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Richmond2026-27 numbers · last game: Temple, Nov 8

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	G	So	6'0"	3-3	27.0	32	—	Started last	10.0	2.3	3.3	1.0	61.8%	55.6%	3.0	69.2%	17.8%
13	G	Sr	6'5"	3-3	26.3	31	—	Started last	9.3	7.3	7.0	0.7	59.1%	44.4%	3.0	40.0%	18.4%
7	F	Sr	6'6"	3-3	26.3	33	—	Started last	15.7	5.3	0.7	1.0	75.0%	64.3%	4.7	50.0%	24.4%
21	C	So	6'11"	3-3	21.7	17	—	Started last	9.7	3.3	5.3	2.3	71.1%	50.0%	0.7	66.7%	23.1%
1	G	Jr	6'5"	3-3	21.3	16	—	Started last	17.0	4.0	2.0	1.3	80.8%	66.7%	3.0	90.0%	29.6%
4	F	Sr	6'9"	3-0	18.7	26	—	Bench	11.7	4.3	0.3	0.3	78.6%	42.9%	2.3	100.0%	22.6%
5	G	Sr	6'6"	3-0	15.7	8	—	Bench	6.7	3.7	0.3	1.7	55.6%	0.0%	1.0	—	26.9%
11	G	So	6'5"	3-0	14.7	12	—	Bench	6.0	2.3	1.3	1.0	52.9%	50.0%	2.7	—	25.1%
0	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	14.0	18	—	Bench	4.7	0.0	3.0	1.0	41.7%	0.0%	1.0	80.0%	22.8%
2	G	Fr	5'9"	2-0	6.5	8	—	Bench	1.5	0.5	1.0	0.5	50.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	17.5%
8	G	So	6'6"	2-0	6.0	—	—	Active	3.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	70.0%	33.3%	1.5	—	27.6%
16	C	So	6'11"	2-0	5.0	0	—	Bench	0.0	1.5	0.5	0.5	—	—	0.0	—	5.6%
15	G	Jr	6'3"	2-0	4.0	—	—	Active	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.5	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	33.9%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Richmond

Against the spread

Season

2-0

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

2-0

avg cover +16.0

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +2.8

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 8	TempleAdjEM #217	N	W 79–53	−1.5	W+24.5	151.0	U132	113.5	76.2	69.6
Nov 5	Southern Virginia Knights	H	W 107–46	—	—	—	—	149.1	64.1	71.8
Nov 2	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #261	H	W 100–77	−15.5	W+7.5	152.5	O177	129.0	99.3	77.5
Mar 11	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #181	N	L 67–75	−4.5	L−12.5	141.5	O142	107.2	120.0	62.5
Mar 7	DuquesneAdjEM #138	A	L 77–79	+4.5	W+2.5	148.0	O156	116.8	119.9	65.9
Mar 3	DaytonAdjEM #99	H	L 60–65	+5.0	P0.0	145.0	U125	97.0	105.1	61.8
Feb 28	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #181	A	L 66–69	−2.5	L−5.5	146.5	U135	91.7	95.9	72.0
Feb 21	St BonaventureAdjEM #118	H	W 99–94	−1.0	W+4.0	148.5	O193	134.8	128.0	73.4
Feb 18	DavidsonAdjEM #97	A	L 63–65	+5.0	W+3.0	140.5	U128	98.8	101.9	63.8
Feb 14	VCUAdjEM #67	H	L 67–78	+8.5	L−2.5	156.0	U145	95.9	111.6	69.9

Liberty

Against the spread

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

0-1

avg cover −5.5

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

0-1

avg vs total −26.0

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	Boyce Bulldogs	H	W 113–54	—	—	—	—	154.8	74.0	73.0
Nov 1	High PointAdjEM #60	N	L 57–72	+9.5	L−5.5	155.0	U129	86.5	109.2	65.9
Mar 21	NevadaAdjEM #44	A	L 63–73	+7.0	L−3.0	147.5	U136	101.5	117.6	62.0
Mar 17	George MasonAdjEM #80	A	W 77–71	+3.0	W+9.0	141.5	O148	122.3	112.8	63.0
Mar 11	Missouri StAdjEM #188	N	L 69–77	−5.0	L−13.0	142.5	O146	108.0	120.6	63.9
Mar 7	Sam HoustonAdjEM #123	H	W 79–72	−4.5	W+2.5	152.5	U151	127.1	115.8	62.2
Mar 5	Louisiana TechAdjEM #228	H	L 71–76	−8.5	L−13.5	139.0	O147	118.8	127.1	59.8
Feb 28	Jax StateAdjEM #189	A	W 81–78	−4.0	L−1.0	139.0	O159	127.5	122.8	63.5
Feb 26	Kennesaw StAdjEM #153	A	L 65–74	+1.0	L−8.0	152.5	U139	102.7	116.9	63.3
Feb 21	Western KYAdjEM #131	H	L 73–94	−7.5	L−28.5	149.0	O167	105.3	135.5	69.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

RichmondLiberty

Efficiency

110.2

108.9

102.8

107.5

72.5

67.9

-4.8

10.5

Shooting

64.2%

42.0%

59.5%

53.3%

47.8%

19.2%

73.5%

66.7%

28.3%

26.8%

Ball control & glass

18.4%

16.7%

23.1%

19.7%

29.5%

23.7%

26.9%

29.0%

11.6%

13.7%

10.8%

20.0%

Style

38.3%

46.4%

48.0%

56.1%

16.8%

5.3%

75.8%

52.4%

38.7%

37.5%

Roster

2.90

2.25

6'5.7"

6'5.3"

22.1%

10.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Richmond

Returning minutes: 22.1%Returning production: 21.9%

Lost

Will Johnston 27.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
AJ Lopez 25.8 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Michael Walz 21.2 mpg, 7.9 ppg · transferred to Charlotte
Mikkel Tyne 18.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Jaden Daughtry 15.2 mpg, 8.6 ppg · transferred to Stony Brook
David Thomas 13.6 mpg, 4.1 ppg · transferred to Georgia St

Added

Amon Dorries from Bucknell · 32.5 mpg, 16.2 ppg last season
Derin Saran from UC Irvine · 29.7 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
Jamie Kaiser Jr. from Butler · 27.2 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
Dominick Stewart from Penn State · 22.5 mpg, 6.6 ppg last season
Andrew Ball from Monmouth · 20.5 mpg, 7.9 ppg last season
Jack McCaffery from Butler · 2.7 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season

Returns 22% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Liberty

Returning minutes: 10.5%Returning production: 7.4%

Lost

Zach Cleveland 33.9 mpg, 11.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Brett Decker Jr. 33.6 mpg, 16.9 ppg · transferred to Baylor
Kaden Metheny 32.9 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Colin Porter 32.3 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Marquette
JJ Harper 26.8 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Josh Smith 14.9 mpg, 7.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Cooper Campbell from Troy · 33.8 mpg, 12.5 ppg last season
Cobi Campbell from Troy · 27.1 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
Eli Sancomb no D1 minutes last season
Reece Davidson no D1 minutes last season
Osmar Garcia-Araujo no D1 minutes last season
Dillon Claussen no D1 minutes last season

Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sun, Nov 22

Miami OH vs UIC · 12:00 PM ET
Butler vs Nebraska · 1:00 PM ET
Chicago St at Marquette · 1:00 PM ET
Towson at American · 1:00 PM ET
Fairfield at Long Island · 1:00 PM ET
Dayton vs Northwestern · 1:00 PM ET
W Illinois at Canisius · 1:00 PM ET
San Diego vs Fordham · 2:00 PM ET
William & Mary at Youngstown St · 2:00 PM ET
Evansville at Memphis · 2:00 PM ET
Wyoming vs Duquesne · 2:00 PM ET
UMass Lowell at Cincinnati · 2:00 PM ET
South Dakota vs Utah Tech · 2:00 PM ET
G Washington vs Western KY · 2:00 PM ET
Robert Morris vs New Mexico St · 2:30 PM ET
S Indiana at Texas · 3:00 PM ET
West Florida at South Alabama · 3:00 PM ET
Troy vs Nicholls · 3:00 PM ET
Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma St · 3:30 PM ET
UAlbany vs Mercyhurst · 3:30 PM ET
McNeese at Texas St · 3:30 PM ET
UC Irvine vs LMU · 4:30 PM ET
IU Indy vs MD Eastern · 4:30 PM ET
NJIT at Boston College · 5:00 PM ET
Fullerton at Portland St · 5:00 PM ET
UNC Asheville at Samford · 5:00 PM ET
Rice vs Lamar · 5:00 PM ET
Utah vs Minnesota · 6:00 PM ET
Southern Miss vs Valparaiso · 6:00 PM ET
CA Baptist vs Portland · 7:00 PM ET
Rhode Island vs UAB · 7:00 PM ET
Delaware at UCLA · 7:00 PM ET
Louisiana at USC · 8:00 PM ET
Seattle U vs UC San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
San José St vs Loyola Chicago · 11:59 PM ET

← Sat, Nov 21 · Mon, Nov 23 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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