CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteAcrisure Arena, Palm Springs, CAAcrisure Series
Seattle U
Efficiency #125
2025-26: 21-14 · 9-11 conf
vs
UC San Diego
Efficiency #121
2025-26: 23-11 · 13-9 conf
Sun, Nov 22 · 9:30 PM ET
68.6
win 50%
Projected
68.7
win 50%
No line posted yet.
Model: PK · total 137.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UC San Diego 68.2, Seattle U 68.7 → 68.6 possessions
+0.6
UC San Diego offense vs Seattle U defense
−5.7
Seattle U offense vs UC San Diego defense
−5.8
Projected total
137.3
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UC San Diego offense vs Seattle U defense
−5.7
Seattle U offense vs UC San Diego defense
+5.8
Even game
0.0
Seattle U side ◂▸ UC San Diego side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +0.1 against 0.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UC San Diego.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UC San Diego is the faster team (69.7, #102 of 365) and Seattle U the slower (68.8, #160). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
137.3
model
Projected team totals
68.6 / 68.7
Seattle U / UC San Diego
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.7#150
Seattle U
68.2#190
UC San Diego

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSeattle U
Where Seattle U struggles: the offensive glass
Seattle U rebounds 23.7% of its own misses (#347); UC San Diego lets opponents grab 27.0% of their own misses (#38). Expect about 24.1%, 6.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseSeattle U
Seattle U's shot-blocking
Seattle U ranks #14 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.9% of UC San Diego's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageUC San Diego
Where UC San Diego struggles: ball control
UC San Diego turns it over on 16.5% of possessions (#164); Seattle U forces turnovers on 21.1% of opponent possessions (#9). Expect about 19.4%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (UC San Diego's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Seattle U at about 42.2% of its shots from three, UC San Diego about 40.6%.
ClashUC San Diego
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
UC San Diego (#56 in 2-point shooting) against Seattle U (#52 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.0%. Historically UC San Diego's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
Seattle U has the ball
OffenseUC San Diego allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #249
48.4% #45
-3.3 pt/100
16.8% #183
16.8% #168
-0.0 pt/100
23.7% #347
27.0% #38
-3.9 pt/100
34.2% #201
29.3% #48
-0.5 pt/100
70.6% #252
—
-0.2 pt/100
Seattle U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.8 pts/100
UC San Diego has the ball
OffenseSeattle U allowsvs D1 avg
52.6% #124
48.4% #46
-1.0 pt/100
16.5% #164
21.1% #9
-3.2 pt/100
26.1% #320
31.8% #249
-1.4 pt/100
31.2% #277
33.0% #131
-0.4 pt/100
69.3% #290
—
-0.3 pt/100
UC San Diego net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Seattle Uoffense vsUC San Diegodefense
Share of shots by zone
Seattle U shoots
UC San Diego allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.3%#26254.6%#5358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.8%#15135.1%#5939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.0%#26339.5%#21838.0%
Three33.7%#18631.5%#4533.7%
UC San Diegooffense vsSeattle Udefense
Share of shots by zone
UC San Diego shoots
Seattle U allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.3%#11253.2%#2658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.6%#11039.6%#18039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.1%#18340.7%#26738.0%
Three32.8%#24132.1%#6933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Seattle U
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#145 of 365
Off reb %
23.7%
#347
Def reb %
68.2%
#249
Turnover %
16.8%
#183
Forced TO %
21.1%
#9
FT rate
34.2%
#201
FT allowed
33.0%
#131
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+3.0
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.6
UC San Diego
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#159 of 365
Off reb %
26.1%
#320
Def reb %
73.0%
#38
Turnover %
16.5%
#164
Forced TO %
16.8%
#168
FT rate
31.2%
#277
FT allowed
29.3%
#48
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+1.5

Seattle U has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#145 of 365) to UC San Diego’s +0.6 (#159).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Seattle U2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Seattle U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Junseok YeoFSr6'8"34-3430.812.04.01.62.051.2%29.5%5.269.6%24.5%
15Will HeimbrodtFSo6'7"34-3330.812.35.22.22.444.9%29.7%1.959.3%28.7%
1Maleek AringtonGSr6'3"35-3529.64.73.13.91.436.3%32.1%1.575.6%12.5%
0Brayden MaldonadoGSr6'0"32-3230.614.73.42.81.651.8%37.8%6.588.7%27.5%
34Austin MaurerCSo7'0"35-2517.97.24.70.50.855.0%25.6%1.172.4%22.6%
11John ChristofilisGSr6'3"35-216.56.51.10.30.353.4%38.7%3.583.3%21.3%
5Jojo MurphyGSr6'2"35-415.55.92.31.40.748.9%34.5%2.579.5%23.7%
6Houran DanCSo6'10"35-1015.05.72.50.31.058.8%—0.064.5%22.3%
2Miles AmosGJr6'2"30-011.01.91.60.60.855.0%46.2%0.450.0%13.2%
33Brock FelderFJr6'8"28-07.33.12.30.10.479.6%0.0%0.050.0%19.0%
10Ray AdamsFFr6'8"5-010.23.22.21.60.438.2%25.0%0.860.0%22.3%
25Yuto KawashimaFFr6'9"4-08.35.02.80.00.352.8%20.0%1.350.0%32.0%
9Stratos PapastavrouFFr6'7"4-07.80.51.80.50.511.1%0.0%0.80.0%20.2%
19Eric ZhengGSo5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Jeremiah HarshmanGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14JT WhiteGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Seattle UUC San Diego
Efficiency
103.7
107.3
101.3
104.8
68.7
68.2
—
—
Shooting
49.8%
52.6%
49.3%
55.0%
33.7%
32.8%
70.6%
69.3%
34.2%
31.2%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
16.5%
21.1%
16.8%
23.7%
26.1%
31.8%
27.0%
9.6%
8.7%
9.4%
10.2%
Style
39.4%
42.3%
43.9%
47.7%
9.9%
15.9%
53.8%
55.5%
30.5%
30.4%
Roster
3.25
2.51
6'5.4"
6'6.3"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Seattle U
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Seattle U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UC San Diego
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UC San Diego's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.