CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceFedExForum, Memphis, TN
Evansville
Efficiency #327
2025-26: 7-25 · 3-18 conf
@
Memphis
Efficiency #152
2025-26: 13-19 · 8-11 conf
Sun, Nov 22 · TBD
67.6
win 16%
Projected
79.2
win 84%
No line posted yet.
Model: MEM −11.7 · total 146.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Memphis 70.1, Evansville 68.1 → 69.8 possessions
+3.2
Memphis offense vs Evansville defense
+1.5
Evansville offense vs Memphis defense
−6.1
Projected total
146.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Memphis offense vs Evansville defense
+1.5
Evansville offense vs Memphis defense
+6.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Memphis by 11.7
11.7
Evansville side ◂▸ Memphis side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +11.6 against +11.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Memphis.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Memphis is the faster team (71.4, #37 of 365) and Evansville the slower (67.4, #228). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.8
model
Projected team totals
67.6 / 79.2
Evansville / Memphis
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.1#206
Evansville
70.1#44
Memphis
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageEvansville
Where Evansville struggles: shooting
Evansville shoots an effective 49.3% (#280); Memphis allows 48.7% (#55). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversEvansville
Evansville turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.2% is worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions against Evansville's offense.
DefenseMemphis
Memphis's ball-hawking
Memphis ranks #29 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.6% of Evansville's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
AdvantageMemphis
Where Memphis scores: the offensive glass
Memphis rebounds 35.3% of its own misses (#41); Evansville lets opponents grab 30.2% of their own misses (#170). Expect about 33.7%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
GlassEvansville
Evansville gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.1% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Evansville's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Memphis's defense, Evansville's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Evansville at about 44.8% of its shots from three, Memphis about 37.2%.
Evansville has the ball
OffenseMemphis allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #280
48.7% #55
-3.5 pt/100
19.1% #323
18.5% #70
-3.0 pt/100
22.0% #355
35.6% #350
-2.0 pt/100
29.8% #315
42.4% #329
+0.2 pt/100
73.6% #149
—
+0.1 pt/100
Evansville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.2 pts/100
Memphis has the ball
OffenseEvansville allowsvs D1 avg
48.7% #298
55.1% #332
+0.6 pt/100
18.9% #317
15.4% #259
-0.4 pt/100
35.3% #41
30.2% #170
+2.0 pt/100
34.7% #190
31.4% #93
-0.3 pt/100
72.1% #205
—
-0.0 pt/100
Memphis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersEvansvilleoffense vsMemphisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Evansville shoots
29.0
9.9
17.9
43.1
Memphis allows
35.7
5.6
16.2
42.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.7%#170 | 59.0%#190 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.5%#208 | 44.8%#292 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.8%#191 | 34.3%#55 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.2%#268 | 30.5%#22 | 33.7% |
Memphisoffense vsEvansvilledefense
Share of shots by zone
Memphis shoots
37.6
6.9
22.0
33.5
Evansville allows
33.7
8.5
15.0
42.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.8%#205 | 61.4%#282 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.5%#207 | 39.6%#178 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.5%#169 | 42.2%#311 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.6%#303 | 37.6%#351 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersEvansville
−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#349 of 365
Off reb %
22.0%
#355
Def reb %
69.8%
#170
Turnover %
19.1%
#323
Forced TO %
15.4%
#259
FT rate
29.8%
#315
FT allowed
31.4%
#93
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.7
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security−1.6
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Memphis
−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#275 of 365
Off reb %
35.3%
#41
Def reb %
64.4%
#350
Turnover %
18.9%
#317
Forced TO %
18.5%
#70
FT rate
34.7%
#190
FT allowed
42.4%
#329
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding−1.6
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−1.8
Memphis has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.2 (#275 of 365) to Evansville’s −5.4 (#349).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Evansville2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Evansville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Leif Moeller | G | Fr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 32.5 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 48.8% | 36.6% | 4.1 | 77.1% | 23.8% | |
| 23 | AJ Casey | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-20 | 29.7 | 13.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 54.5% | 33.9% | 1.9 | 73.8% | 27.2% | |
| 11 | Joshua Hughes | F | Jr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 27.6 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 58.2% | 36.4% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 19.0% | |
| 0 | Bryce Quinet | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-19 | 26.9 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 45.8% | 30.3% | 2.4 | 71.4% | 23.2% | |
| 12 | Alex Hemenway | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-32 | 25.9 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 45.4% | 31.7% | 5.1 | 81.8% | 17.3% | |
| 45 | Trent Hundley | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-1 | 17.6 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 54.6% | 37.1% | 3.3 | 89.3% | 16.9% | |
| 1 | Keishon Porter | G | Sr | 6'5" | 16-10 | 22.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 38.4% | 15.2% | 2.1 | 65.9% | 24.9% | |
| 9 | Kaia Berridge | G | So | 6'4" | 27-0 | 12.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 41.4% | 26.7% | 1.7 | 57.1% | 14.5% | |
| 22 | Connor Turnbull | F | Sr | 6'10" | 16-14 | 20.1 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 48.4% | 22.2% | 1.1 | 66.7% | 38.6% | |
| 2 | James Dyson-Merwe | F | Fr | 6'11" | 21-0 | 13.1 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 64.7% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 15.1% | |
| 40 | Weston Aigner | G | Jr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 23.4% | |
| 5 | Marlon Barnes Jr. | F | So | 6'6" | 3-0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 37.5% | 33.3% | 2.0 | — | 42.3% | |
| 13 | Leo Amari IV | G | Jr | 6'2" | 5-0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.4 | — | 23.4% | |
| 33 | Aaron Gutman | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 32 | Dakota Candler | F | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Memphis2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dug McDaniel | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-32 | 34.4 | 13.9 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 47.2% | 32.9% | 4.6 | 84.9% | 26.6% | |
| 5 | Curtis Givens III | G | So | 6'3" | 25-15 | 25.6 | 9.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 52.4% | 36.5% | 3.8 | 66.1% | 22.4% | |
| 2 | Zach Davis | G | Sr | 6'7" | 29-11 | 21.0 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 47.0% | 27.8% | 2.5 | 75.5% | 23.9% | |
| 23 | Sincere Parker | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-4 | 19.5 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 46.2% | 32.9% | 2.7 | 79.8% | 34.4% | |
| 15 | Julius Thedford | G | So | 6'4" | 27-17 | 20.4 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 53.8% | 34.1% | 1.6 | 68.2% | 22.5% | |
| 11 | Aaron Bradshaw | F | Jr | 7'1" | 29-22 | 18.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 56.3% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 77.2% | 25.3% | |
| 0 | Quante Berry | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-11 | 18.0 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46.5% | 29.8% | 2.8 | 69.8% | 21.7% | |
| 3 | Ashton Hardaway | F | Jr | 6'8" | 25-9 | 19.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 48.8% | 34.3% | 2.7 | 73.7% | 19.4% | |
| 31 | Thierno Sylla | C | Sr | 6'11" | 23-14 | 13.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 50.8% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 60.0% | 16.9% | |
| 10 | Simon Majok | C | Fr | 7'1" | 25-10 | 12.4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 48.9% | 28.6% | 0.3 | 71.8% | 14.4% | |
| 14 | Hasan Abdul Hakim | G | Sr | 6'8" | 13-10 | 22.4 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 42.0% | 15.8% | 1.5 | 60.7% | 22.8% | |
| 19 | Tariq Ingraham | F | Sr | 6'9" | 25-1 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 66.7% | 20.5% | |
| 12 | William Whorton | F | So | 6'8" | 19-4 | 8.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 55.6% | 15.3% | |
| 8 | Mason Matthews | F | Sr | 6'8" | 7-0 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 0.9 | — | 16.7% | |
| 4 | Arop Arop | F | Jr | 6'11" | 9-0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 22.1% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Evansville2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Evansville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Leif Moeller | G | Fr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 32.5 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 48.8% | 36.6% | 4.1 | 77.1% | 23.8% | |
| 23 | AJ Casey | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-20 | 29.7 | 13.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 54.5% | 33.9% | 1.9 | 73.8% | 27.2% | |
| 11 | Joshua Hughes | F | Jr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 27.6 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 58.2% | 36.4% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 19.0% | |
| 0 | Bryce Quinet | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-19 | 26.9 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 45.8% | 30.3% | 2.4 | 71.4% | 23.2% | |
| 12 | Alex Hemenway | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-32 | 25.9 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 45.4% | 31.7% | 5.1 | 81.8% | 17.3% | |
| 45 | Trent Hundley | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-1 | 17.6 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 54.6% | 37.1% | 3.3 | 89.3% | 16.9% | |
| 1 | Keishon Porter | G | Sr | 6'5" | 16-10 | 22.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 38.4% | 15.2% | 2.1 | 65.9% | 24.9% | |
| 9 | Kaia Berridge | G | So | 6'4" | 27-0 | 12.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 41.4% | 26.7% | 1.7 | 57.1% | 14.5% | |
| 22 | Connor Turnbull | F | Sr | 6'10" | 16-14 | 20.1 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 48.4% | 22.2% | 1.1 | 66.7% | 38.6% | |
| 2 | James Dyson-Merwe | F | Fr | 6'11" | 21-0 | 13.1 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 64.7% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 15.1% | |
| 40 | Weston Aigner | G | Jr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 23.4% | |
| 5 | Marlon Barnes Jr. | F | So | 6'6" | 3-0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 37.5% | 33.3% | 2.0 | — | 42.3% | |
| 13 | Leo Amari IV | G | Jr | 6'2" | 5-0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.4 | — | 23.4% | |
| 33 | Aaron Gutman | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 32 | Dakota Candler | F | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Evansville
Against the spread
Season
15-15
Home
6-7
Road
7-6
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −5.2
Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
16-13-1
Home
8-5
Road
7-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +7.0
Under in the last gameOver in 7 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | Northern Iowa | N | L 59–68 | +15.0 | W+6.0 | 128.5 | U127 | 94.0 | 108.3 | 62.8 |
| Mar 1 | S Illinois | H | L 67–81 | +9.0 | L−5.0 | 139.5 | O148 | 104.9 | 126.8 | 63.9 |
| Feb 28 | Valparaiso | H | W 80–79 | +5.0 | W+6.0 | 138.0 | O159 | 117.9 | 116.4 | 67.9 |
| Feb 25 | Belmont | A | L 64–98 | +18.5 | L−15.5 | 152.0 | O162 | 94.8 | 145.2 | 67.5 |
| Feb 21 | Murray St | A | L 75–88 | +14.0 | W+1.0 | 153.0 | O163 | 104.0 | 122.1 | 72.1 |
| Feb 18 | UIC | H | L 46–84 | +8.0 | L−30.0 | 140.0 | U130 | 71.2 | 130.1 | 64.6 |
| Feb 12 | S Illinois | A | L 60–86 | +12.0 | L−14.0 | 142.5 | O146 | 88.2 | 126.4 | 68.1 |
| Feb 9 | Illinois St | H | W 88–80 | +10.5 | W+18.5 | 138.0 | O168 | 132.7 | 120.6 | 66.3 |
| Feb 6 | Valparaiso | A | L 63–70 OT | +8.5 | W+1.5 | 136.5 | U133 | 91.1 | 101.2 | 69.2 |
| Feb 3 | Indiana St | H | L 63–84 | +1.0 | L−20.0 | 145.0 | O147 | 100.5 | 134.0 | 62.7 |
Memphis
Against the spread
Season
14-18
Home
10-6
Road
2-11
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −7.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
16-16
Home
8-8
Road
8-5
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +7.5
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Tulane | N | L 69–81 | −4.5 | L−16.5 | 150.5 | U150 | 97.8 | 114.8 | 70.5 |
| Mar 8 | Tulane | A | W 96–95 OT | −2.5 | L−1.5 | 154.0 | O191 | 124.2 | 122.9 | 77.3 |
| Mar 5 | South Florida | H | L 89–96 | +7.5 | W+0.5 | 161.5 | O185 | 114.8 | 123.8 | 77.5 |
| Mar 1 | East Carolina | A | L 68–84 | −4.0 | L−20.0 | 153.5 | U152 | 92.5 | 114.3 | 73.5 |
| Feb 26 | Wichita St | H | L 82–88 | −1.0 | L−7.0 | 149.5 | O170 | 114.1 | 122.4 | 71.9 |
| Feb 22 | UAB | H | L 67–78 | −6.0 | L−17.0 | 152.0 | U145 | 93.4 | 108.7 | 71.8 |
| Feb 19 | South Florida | A | L 66–87 | +9.5 | L−11.5 | 163.5 | U153 | 94.2 | 124.2 | 70.1 |
| Feb 14 | Utah State | A | L 75–99 | +14.0 | L−10.0 | 154.5 | O174 | 104.7 | 138.2 | 71.6 |
| Feb 12 | North Texas | A | L 69–76 | −1.5 | L−8.5 | 138.0 | O145 | 100.3 | 110.5 | 68.8 |
| Feb 8 | Charlotte | H | W 77–54 | −9.5 | W+13.5 | 144.5 | U131 | 110.9 | 77.8 | 69.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeEvansvilleMemphis
Efficiency
102.4
106.9
112.2
105.8
68.1
70.1
—
—
Shooting
49.3%
48.7%
49.9%
49.4%
32.2%
31.6%
73.6%
72.1%
29.8%
34.7%
Ball control & glass
19.1%
18.9%
15.4%
18.5%
22.0%
35.3%
30.2%
35.6%
11.1%
11.3%
7.1%
10.4%
Style
43.1%
33.7%
40.3%
44.9%
7.5%
17.0%
54.3%
49.8%
30.0%
40.2%
Roster
2.74
3.19
6'6.7"
6'5.6"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputEvansville
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Evansville's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Memphis
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.