CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCredit Union 1 Arena, Chicago, IL

Miami OH

Efficiency #66

2025-26: 32-2 · 18-1 conf

UIC

Efficiency #99

2025-26: 19-16 · 14-9 conf

Sun, Nov 22 · TBD

75.2

win 45%

Projected

76.7

win 55%

No line posted yet.

Model: UIC −1.5 · total 151.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UIC 67.7, Miami OH 69.8 → 69.2 possessions

+1.9

UIC offense vs Miami OH defense

−0.4

Miami OH offense vs UIC defense

+2.1

Projected total

151.8

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UIC offense vs Miami OH defense

−0.4

Miami OH offense vs UIC defense

−2.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

UIC by 1.5

1.5

Miami OH side ◂▸ UIC side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UIC.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Miami OH is the faster team (71.0, #55 of 365) and UIC the slower (67.1, #241). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.8

model

Projected team totals

75.2 / 76.7

Miami OH / UIC

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#62

Miami OH

67.7#234

UIC

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMiami OH

Where Miami OH scores: shooting

Miami OH shoots an effective 58.6% (#6); UIC allows 50.5% (#125). Expect about 55.1%, 3.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashMiami OH

Style match: 3-point volume

Miami OH takes 45.6% of its shots from three; UIC lets opponents take 46.4% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 48.8% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageUIC

Where UIC scores: the offensive glass

UIC rebounds 36.3% of its own misses (#22); Miami OH lets opponents grab 28.7% of their own misses (#92). Expect about 33.7%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Miami OH) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Miami OH at about 48.8% of its shots from three, UIC about 32.3%.

GlassMiami OH

Miami OH gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.7% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Miami OH's offense.

ClashUIC

Style match: paint scoring

UIC scores 48.4% of its points in the paint; Miami OH gives up 46.7% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.5% — both habits push the same way.

Miami OH has the ball

OffenseUIC allowsvs D1 avg

58.6% #6

50.5% #125

+5.5 pt/100

14.3% #34

19.7% #31

-0.6 pt/100

25.5% #332

32.0% #255

-1.6 pt/100

39.6% #64

33.9% #149

+0.2 pt/100

74.9% #89

—

+0.2 pt/100

Miami OH net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.6 pts/100

UIC has the ball

OffenseMiami OH allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #245

51.2% #167

-1.3 pt/100

17.6% #243

17.4% #125

-1.1 pt/100

36.3% #22

28.7% #92

+2.0 pt/100

36.2% #145

30.2% #63

-0.3 pt/100

72.5% #186

—

+0.0 pt/100

UIC net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Miami OHoffense vsUICdefense

Share of shots by zone

Miami OH shoots

37.7

4.7

11.1

46.5

UIC allows

34.8

5.5

13.3

46.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	68.9%#2	57.9%#144	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.6%#89	32.6%#25	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#47	39.9%#239	38.0%
Three	37.1%#25	33.4%#147	33.7%

UICoffense vsMiami OHdefense

Share of shots by zone

UIC shoots

40.4

9.3

17.2

33.1

Miami OH allows

38.1

8.1

17.1

36.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.2%#221	58.8%#183	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.1%#63	41.0%#209	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.1%#219	40.3%#255	38.0%
Three	31.6%#300	33.1%#131	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Miami OH

+3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#42 of 365

Off reb %

25.5%

#332

Def reb %

71.3%

#92

Turnover %

14.3%

#34

Forced TO %

17.4%

#125

FT rate

39.6%

#64

FT allowed

30.2%

#63

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.6

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+0.5

Foul shots drawn+1.2

Foul shots allowed+1.3

UIC

+3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#46 of 365

Off reb %

36.3%

#22

Def reb %

68.0%

#255

Turnover %

17.6%

#243

Forced TO %

19.7%

#31

FT rate

36.2%

#145

FT allowed

33.9%

#149

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.9

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers+2.1

Foul shots drawn+0.3

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Miami OH has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.7 (#42 of 365) to UIC’s +3.6 (#46).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Miami OH2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Brant Byers	G	So	6'8"	34-33	30.8	14.2	4.1	0.6	0.9	59.4%	39.2%	5.2	78.5%	21.8%
0	Eian Elmer	G	Jr	6'6"	34-34	30.3	12.7	5.9	1.1	1.2	62.5%	42.9%	4.9	75.8%	20.3%
3	Luke Skaljac	G	So	6'2"	32-21	28.0	10.3	3.0	4.7	1.8	55.1%	35.3%	3.6	78.7%	21.3%
13	Antwone Woolfolk	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	23.3	9.8	5.3	1.5	1.5	65.7%	32.4%	1.1	55.2%	22.1%
11	Almar Atlason	F	Jr	6'8"	34-1	18.8	9.9	2.5	1.1	0.8	57.8%	36.4%	4.9	80.8%	26.3%
1	Trey Perry	G	Fr	6'2"	32-1	13.1	5.8	1.6	1.3	0.6	59.5%	38.3%	1.5	74.5%	22.3%
12	Justin Kirby	G	Fr	6'4"	21-1	17.0	6.2	3.2	0.6	0.5	63.1%	40.5%	2.0	81.1%	17.4%
2	Evan Ipsaro	G	Jr	6'0"	12-12	27.8	13.9	2.4	3.3	1.3	63.8%	39.4%	2.8	82.4%	22.9%
20	Tyler Robbins	F	Fr	6'10"	25-0	6.3	3.3	2.0	0.3	0.4	61.4%	26.7%	0.6	68.4%	25.8%
25	Kyle Waltz	F	Fr	6'7"	20-0	7.8	3.1	1.4	0.6	0.3	67.1%	37.5%	1.2	66.7%	17.5%
24	Jackson Kotecki	F	Jr	6'9"	4-0	7.3	1.5	2.0	0.5	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.5	66.7%	15.5%
4	Brady Ganley	G	Fr	6'3"	6-0	2.3	1.8	0.5	0.3	0.2	112.5%	100.0%	0.2	100.0%	21.6%
8	Eli Yofan	G	Sr	6'2"	2-1	7.0	1.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	75.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	7.2%
7	Ethan Wright	F	Jr	6'5"	5-0	1.8	1.4	0.8	0.0	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	83.3%	33.3%
33	Blake Anderson	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Leshawn Stowers	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UIC2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UIC's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
14	Andy Johnson	G	Fr	6'6"	35-34	28.7	11.2	3.5	1.7	1.3	46.7%	34.8%	4.4	85.5%	24.4%
22	Mekhi Lowery	G	Jr	6'7"	35-35	26.1	8.1	5.8	2.1	1.5	51.1%	—	0.0	62.9%	20.7%
7	Abdul Momoh	F	Sr	6'8"	35-14	23.3	7.9	3.7	0.9	1.0	61.5%	—	0.0	50.5%	19.5%
5	Rashund Washington Jr.	G	Fr	6'5"	35-31	23.0	8.7	5.0	0.7	1.2	58.8%	33.7%	2.4	75.4%	21.2%
0	Ahmad Henderson II	G	Jr	5'10"	35-15	21.3	12.0	1.6	2.3	1.8	45.4%	29.3%	4.2	87.1%	36.6%
20	Sam Silverstein	G	Sr	6'6"	35-4	21.3	2.8	4.5	1.8	0.9	47.6%	10.0%	0.3	51.4%	10.8%
1	Jayce Nathaniel	F	Fr	6'8"	35-16	19.8	6.2	4.5	0.9	0.7	44.8%	24.1%	1.5	70.8%	21.1%
2	Elijah Crawford	G	So	6'3"	23-17	25.9	14.1	2.9	4.9	2.6	49.3%	27.6%	3.3	75.3%	37.0%
10	Josiah Hammons	G	Sr	6'2"	34-3	14.6	6.4	1.1	0.4	0.4	55.0%	38.6%	4.1	79.5%	24.0%
21	Ante Beljan	F	Jr	6'10"	26-5	7.4	3.5	1.0	0.2	0.7	62.9%	—	0.0	65.0%	26.6%
27	Tai Walters-Whitaker	G	Sr	6'2"	14-1	5.4	0.8	0.6	0.9	0.2	30.6%	25.0%	0.3	—	15.8%
3	Carlos Harris III	G	Fr	6'1"	3-0	6.7	1.3	0.3	1.3	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	—	11.2%
25	AJ Morgan	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Chris Walker	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Nano Barrantes	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
—	Jalen Johnson	NA	—	—	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Miami OH2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Brant Byers	G	So	6'8"	34-33	30.8	14.2	4.1	0.6	0.9	59.4%	39.2%	5.2	78.5%	21.8%
0	Eian Elmer	G	Jr	6'6"	34-34	30.3	12.7	5.9	1.1	1.2	62.5%	42.9%	4.9	75.8%	20.3%
3	Luke Skaljac	G	So	6'2"	32-21	28.0	10.3	3.0	4.7	1.8	55.1%	35.3%	3.6	78.7%	21.3%
13	Antwone Woolfolk	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	23.3	9.8	5.3	1.5	1.5	65.7%	32.4%	1.1	55.2%	22.1%
11	Almar Atlason	F	Jr	6'8"	34-1	18.8	9.9	2.5	1.1	0.8	57.8%	36.4%	4.9	80.8%	26.3%
1	Trey Perry	G	Fr	6'2"	32-1	13.1	5.8	1.6	1.3	0.6	59.5%	38.3%	1.5	74.5%	22.3%
12	Justin Kirby	G	Fr	6'4"	21-1	17.0	6.2	3.2	0.6	0.5	63.1%	40.5%	2.0	81.1%	17.4%
2	Evan Ipsaro	G	Jr	6'0"	12-12	27.8	13.9	2.4	3.3	1.3	63.8%	39.4%	2.8	82.4%	22.9%
20	Tyler Robbins	F	Fr	6'10"	25-0	6.3	3.3	2.0	0.3	0.4	61.4%	26.7%	0.6	68.4%	25.8%
25	Kyle Waltz	F	Fr	6'7"	20-0	7.8	3.1	1.4	0.6	0.3	67.1%	37.5%	1.2	66.7%	17.5%
24	Jackson Kotecki	F	Jr	6'9"	4-0	7.3	1.5	2.0	0.5	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.5	66.7%	15.5%
4	Brady Ganley	G	Fr	6'3"	6-0	2.3	1.8	0.5	0.3	0.2	112.5%	100.0%	0.2	100.0%	21.6%
8	Eli Yofan	G	Sr	6'2"	2-1	7.0	1.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	75.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	7.2%
7	Ethan Wright	F	Jr	6'5"	5-0	1.8	1.4	0.8	0.0	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	83.3%	33.3%
33	Blake Anderson	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Leshawn Stowers	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Miami OH

Against the spread

Season

20-11

Home

8-5

Road

10-4

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-13

Home

9-4

Road

6-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.2

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#6TennesseeAdjEM #13	N	L 56–78	+12.0	L−10.0	149.0	U134	85.2	118.7	65.7
Mar 18	#11SMUAdjEM #44	N	W 89–79	+7.0	W+17.0	160.5	O168	134.3	119.2	66.3
Mar 12	UMassAdjEM #184	N	L 83–87	−8.0	L−12.0	163.5	O170	120.2	126.0	69.0
Mar 6	OhioAdjEM #233	A	W 110–108 OT	−3.5	L−1.5	160.0	O218	132.3	129.8	83.2
Mar 3	ToledoAdjEM #115	H	W 74–72	−8.0	L−6.0	162.5	U146	107.6	104.7	68.8
Feb 27	W MichiganAdjEM #276	A	W 69–67	−11.5	L−9.5	163.0	U136	101.2	98.3	68.2
Feb 24	E MichiganAdjEM #247	A	W 74–64	−9.0	W+1.0	152.5	U138	103.5	89.5	71.5
Feb 20	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	H	W 91–77	−8.0	W+6.0	154.0	O168	123.0	104.1	74.0
Feb 17	UMassAdjEM #184	A	W 86–77	−3.0	W+6.0	163.5	U163	121.7	109.0	70.6
Feb 13	OhioAdjEM #233	H	W 90–74	−7.5	W+8.5	164.5	U164	125.2	102.9	71.9

UIC

Against the spread

Season

17-16

Home

7-5

Road

8-8

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +4.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-17

Home

4-8

Road

8-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +6.8

Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 18	CaliforniaAdjEM #79	A	L 73–91	+6.5	L−11.5	151.0	O164	102.6	127.9	71.2
Mar 8	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	N	L 69–84	+3.0	L−12.0	124.5	O153	116.5	141.8	59.2
Mar 7	DrakeAdjEM #210	N	W 72–51	−4.5	W+16.5	143.5	U123	115.9	82.1	62.1
Mar 6	Murray StAdjEM #108	N	W 92–79	−1.0	W+12.0	149.5	O171	116.6	100.1	78.9
Mar 1	Indiana StAdjEM #213	A	L 63–79	−4.0	L−20.0	144.0	U142	93.3	117.0	67.5
Feb 24	BradleyAdjEM #117	H	W 93–86 2OT	−2.0	W+5.0	142.0	O179	118.8	109.8	78.3
Feb 21	ValparaisoAdjEM #176	H	L 67–71	−7.0	L−11.0	138.5	U138	104.3	110.6	64.2
Feb 18	EvansvilleAdjEM #327	A	W 84–46	−8.0	W+30.0	140.0	U130	130.1	71.2	64.6
Feb 15	Illinois StAdjEM #80	H	W 83–56	+1.0	W+28.0	141.0	U139	114.0	76.9	72.8
Feb 12	DrakeAdjEM #210	A	W 80–70	+1.0	W+11.0	146.5	O150	122.0	106.7	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Miami OHUIC

Efficiency

114.6

109.3

107.1

105.4

69.8

67.7

—

Shooting

58.6%

49.8%

61.0%

51.0%

37.1%

31.6%

74.9%

72.5%

39.6%

36.2%

Ball control & glass

14.3%

17.6%

17.4%

19.7%

25.5%

36.3%

28.7%

32.0%

8.6%

9.5%

7.7%

10.3%

Style

45.6%

32.8%

40.4%

48.4%

11.0%

14.2%

51.4%

53.6%

29.2%

39.3%

Roster

2.43

2.51

6'5.7"

6'5.1"

85.1%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Miami OH

Returning minutes: 85.1%Returning production: 82.9%

Lost

Peter Suder 30.2 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Blake Anderson no D1 minutes last season
Leshawn Stowers no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UIC

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted UIC's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.