Illinois State Redbirds vs Purdue Boilermakers basketball final score
Mon, Nov 9 · 8:30 PM ET · Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
Non-conferenceFS1Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
Illinois St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #81
@
Purdue
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #31
Final
5976
Final score
Projected 65.7 – 78.8
ILST win 13%PUR win 87%
MarketClose
Spread
PUR −15.0
open PUR −15.5
Total
144.0
open 144.5
Our line
PUR −13.2
as of Mon, Nov 9 · 8:21 PM ET
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Illinois St is the faster team (67.7, #277 of 365) and Purdue the slower (64.9, #330). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.3
per team, 40 min
Market total
144.0
Market close · open 144.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.5#263
Illinois St
67.4#347
Purdue
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
PUR −13.2
Four factors 1.0Not in these stats 12.2
From the four factors
Purdue has the ball+4.4
Illinois St has the ball+3.3
Purdue has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.4% #74 · ILST forces 14.4% #285 · ~9 turnovers+3.7
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 46.2% #256 · ILST allows 52.9% #220−1.1
✓Wins second chancesOR% 28.2% #241 · ILST allows 41.0% #316+0.9
✓Gets to the lineFTR 44.5% #102 · ILST allows 38.2% #193 · FT 79.2% #51+0.9
Illinois St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 59.5% #41 · PUR allows 50.4% #181+5.0
✗Few second chancesOR% 28.6% #226 · PUR allows 26.0% #85−1.9
✓Gets to the lineFTR 39.7% #143 · PUR allows 40.3% #216 · FT 69.6% #187+0.2
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 23.6% #316 · PUR forces 13.0% #312 · ~12 turnovers+0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootIllinois Stoffense vsPurduedefense
Share of shots by zone
Illinois St shoots
37.9
3.4
12.1
46.6
Purdue allows
29.0
12.9
23.4
34.7
D-I average
38.1
8.0
12.3
41.5
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.0%#256 | 69.4%#300 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#76 | 37.5%#173 | 38.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.9%#93 | 41.4%#235 | 34.4% |
| Three | 48.1%#6 | 30.2%#133 | 32.5% |
Purdueoffense vsIllinois Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Purdue shoots
25.2
12.6
21.0
41.2
Illinois St allows
51.5
2.9
20.6
25.0
D-I average
38.1
8.0
12.3
41.5
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.3%#117 | 74.3%#336 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 66.7%#30 | 50.0%#238 | 38.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.0%#91 | 21.4%#71 | 34.4% |
| Three | 20.4%#345 | 23.5%#39 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineIllinois St
−10.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#312 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#226
Def reb %
59.0%
#316
Turnover %
23.6%
#316
Forced TO %
14.4%
#285
FT rate
39.7%
#143
FT allowed
38.2%
#193
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding−3.2
Ball security−3.9
Forcing turnovers−2.5
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Purdue
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#163 of 365
Off reb %
28.2%
#241
Def reb %
74.0%
#85
Turnover %
14.4%
#74
Forced TO %
13.0%
#312
FT rate
44.5%
#102
FT allowed
40.3%
#216
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+1.9
Ball security+2.7
Forcing turnovers−3.6
Foul shots drawn+1.8
Foul shots allowed−0.6
Purdue has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#163 of 365) to Illinois St’s −10.2 (#312).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notIllinois St2026-27 numbers through Mon, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | G | Sr | 5'11" | 3-3 | 35.0 | 19.3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 81.3% | 60.0% | 6.7 | 75.0% | 24.2% | |
| 9 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 3-2 | 26.7 | 15.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 59.4% | 40.0% | 6.7 | 58.3% | 33.0% | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'2" | 3-3 | 26.0 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 60.7% | 45.5% | 3.7 | 100.0% | 15.8% | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-3 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 68.8% | 50.0% | 2.7 | 50.0% | 21.2% | |
| 0 | F | So | 6'9" | 3-3 | 22.0 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 17.8% | |
| 24 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 15.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 66.7% | 8.5% | |
| 35 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-1 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 83.3% | 34.6% | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 68.2% | 37.5% | 2.7 | — | 18.8% | |
| 33 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 12.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 17.0% | |
| 15 | F | Fr | 6'11" | 3-0 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 30.1% | |
| 25 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 25.6% | |
| 12 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 30.4% | |
| 13 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 10.1% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameIllinois St
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +2.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +27.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | Central State Marauders | H | W 100–55 | — | — | — | — | 150.9 | 83.0 | 66.3 |
| Nov 2 | Saint Mary's | A | L 85–90 OT | +7.0 | W+2.0 | 147.5 | O175 | 111.6 | 118.2 | 76.1 |
| Apr 2 | Auburn | N | L 66–88 | +8.0 | L−14.0 | 148.0 | O154 | 102.7 | 136.9 | 64.3 |
| Mar 25 | Dayton | A | W 61–55 | +7.0 | W+13.0 | 140.0 | U116 | 97.2 | 87.6 | 62.8 |
| Mar 22 | Wake Forest | A | W 78–75 | +8.0 | W+11.0 | 152.5 | O153 | 112.3 | 108.0 | 69.5 |
| Mar 18 | Kent State | H | W 79–58 | −4.5 | W+16.5 | 154.5 | U137 | 114.3 | 83.9 | 69.1 |
| Mar 6 | Northern Iowa | N | L 52–74 | +2.0 | L−20.0 | 129.5 | U126 | 83.5 | 118.9 | 62.3 |
| Mar 1 | Belmont | H | W 81–74 | +1.0 | W+8.0 | 151.0 | O155 | 131.1 | 119.8 | 61.8 |
| Feb 25 | Northern Iowa | A | W 71–69 | +5.0 | W+7.0 | 132.0 | O140 | 114.3 | 111.1 | 62.1 |
| Feb 21 | Bradley | A | L 60–74 | +4.5 | L−9.5 | 144.5 | U134 | 93.5 | 115.3 | 64.2 |
Purdue
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −11.8
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +7.8
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Valparaiso | H | L 80–83 2OT | −19.5 | L−22.5 | 144.0 | O163 | 103.4 | 107.2 | 77.4 |
| Nov 2 | #15Gonzaga | N | L 72–78 | +5.0 | L−1.0 | 153.5 | U150 | 105.0 | 113.8 | 68.6 |
| Mar 28 | #1Arizona | N | L 64–79 | +5.0 | L−10.0 | 152.5 | U143 | 98.0 | 121.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 26 | #11Texas | N | W 79–77 | −8.5 | L−6.5 | 146.5 | O156 | 129.9 | 126.6 | 60.8 |
| Mar 22 | #7Miami | N | W 79–69 | −8.0 | W+2.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 120.4 | 105.2 | 65.6 |
| Mar 20 | #15Queens | N | W 104–71 | −25.5 | W+7.5 | 159.5 | O175 | 154.0 | 105.1 | 67.5 |
| Mar 15 | #3Michigan | N | W 80–72 | +5.5 | W+13.5 | 149.5 | O152 | 127.7 | 114.9 | 62.7 |
| Mar 14 | UCLA | N | W 73–66 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U139 | 122.4 | 110.7 | 59.6 |
| Mar 13 | #11Nebraska | N | W 74–58 | −4.5 | W+11.5 | 146.0 | U132 | 122.4 | 95.9 | 60.5 |
| Mar 12 | Northwestern | N | W 81–68 | −13.5 | L−0.5 | 140.0 | O149 | 136.3 | 114.4 | 59.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeIllinois StPurdue
Efficiency
109.1
117.7
101.5
102.2
69.5
67.4
17.3
13.9
Shooting
59.5%
46.2%
48.4%
57.1%
48.1%
20.4%
69.6%
79.2%
39.7%
44.5%
Ball control & glass
23.6%
14.4%
14.4%
13.0%
28.6%
28.2%
41.0%
26.0%
15.8%
6.2%
6.5%
5.7%
Style
46.6%
41.2%
28.2%
42.1%
17.6%
5.3%
71.4%
72.0%
43.5%
27.2%
Roster
3.08
2.66
6'4.9"
6'6.2"
34.0%
40.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputIllinois St
Returning minutes: 34.0%Returning production: 37.1%
Lost
- Boden Skunberg 26.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ty Pence 23.5 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Akron
- Landon Wolf 23.2 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ty'Reek Coleman 22.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg · transferred to Iowa
- Landon Moore 13.9 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brandon Lieb 12.6 mpg, 3.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Malik Messina-Moore from Xavier · 33.2 mpg, 10.9 ppg last season
- Deng Garang from Le Moyne · 30.1 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Zaxton King from Missouri St · 27.0 mpg, 7.2 ppg last season
- Demarion Burch from Bradley · 17.6 mpg, 6.7 ppg last season
- Louie Semona III from Western KY · 2.4 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season
- Isaac Ericksen no D1 minutes last season
Returns 34% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Purdue
Returning minutes: 41.2%Returning production: 31.7%
Lost
- Braden Smith 34.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Fletcher Loyer 29.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trey Kaufman-Renn 26.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Kansas
- Oscar Cluff 24.7 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Liam Murphy 2.3 mpg, 0.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Aaron Fine 0.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
- Sam King no D1 minutes last season
- Rivers Knight no D1 minutes last season
- Jacob Webber no D1 minutes last season
- Sinan Huan no D1 minutes last season
- Caden Pierce no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Ertel no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 41% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -15.5-105 | 144.5→143.5o-115 u-105 | -1800 | +1000 |
| FanDuel | -13.5→-15.5-110 | 144.5o-110 u-110 | -2100 | +1000 |
| BetMGM | -15.5-110 | 144.5o-110 u-110 | -1600 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -15.5-112 | 144.5o-110 u-113 | -2000 | +850 |
| Fanatics | -15.5-105 | 144o-110 u-110 | -1800 | +1000 |
| BetOnline | -12.5→-15.5-110 | 147→144o-110 u-110 | -1900 | +1011 |
| Bovada | -16→-15-115 | 145→144.5o-110 u-110 | -1800 | +850 |
| theScore Bet | -15.5-105 | 144.5→143.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Hard Rock | -15.5-110 | 144.5o-110 u-110 | -2000 | +850 |
| Kalshi | -15.5+104 | 144.5o+104 u-108 | -1329 | +1150 |
| Polymarket | -15.5+100 | 144.5o+104 u-108 | -1329 | +1150 |
| Novig | -15.5+104 | 144.5o+104 u-108 | -1329 | +1150 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Mon, Nov 9
- Marshall at Ohio State · 6:00 PM ET
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- FGCU at Georgia · 7:00 PM ET
- Radford at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- Grambling at Texas · 7:00 PM ET
- Cleveland St at Bowling Green · 7:00 PM ET
- Minnesota at Cincinnati · 7:00 PM ET
- North Dakota at Clemson · 7:00 PM ET
- Norfolk St at William & Mary · 7:00 PM ET
- SC State at Chicago St · 7:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Towson · 7:00 PM ET
- Stonehill at Columbia · 7:00 PM ET
- Wagner at UConn · 7:00 PM ET
- Kansas City at Jacksonville · 7:00 PM ET
- North Florida at Miami · 7:00 PM ET
- SC Upstate at Coastal · 7:00 PM ET
- E Illinois at Notre Dame · 7:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at UIC · 7:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Alabama · 7:30 PM ET
- Jackson St at Mississippi St · 7:30 PM ET
- Florida A&M at UAB · 7:30 PM ET
- North Alabama at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Texas A&M · 8:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Northwestern · 8:00 PM ET
- Louisiana Tech at LSU · 8:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Missouri · 8:00 PM ET
- Alabama A&M at DePaul · 9:00 PM ET
- App State at Auburn · 9:00 PM ET
- Seton Hall vs Charlotte · 9:00 PM ET
- E Washington at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
- Rice at Stanford · 10:00 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Washington · 10:00 PM ET
- Portland at Hawai'i · 11:59 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.