CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceColeman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
Oakland
Efficiency #172
2025-26: 16-16 · 12-9 conf
@
Alabama
Efficiency #18
2025-26: 25-10 · 13-6 conf
Mon, Nov 9 · TBD
78.2
win 9%
Projected
93.9
win 91%
No line posted yet.
Model: ALA −15.7 · total 172.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Alabama 71.9, Oakland 70.0 → 73.7 possessions
+11.6
Alabama offense vs Oakland defense
+11.9
Oakland offense vs Alabama defense
+0.4
Projected total
172.1
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Alabama offense vs Oakland defense
+11.9
Oakland offense vs Alabama defense
−0.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
Alabama by 15.7
15.7
Oakland side ◂▸ Alabama side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Alabama.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Alabama is the faster team (74.2, #5 of 365) and Oakland the slower (71.1, #46). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
172.1
model
Projected team totals
78.2 / 93.9
Oakland / Alabama
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.0#46
Oakland
71.9#5
Alabama
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
Alabama averages 74.2 possessions per 40, Oakland 71.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 74 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageAlabama
Where Alabama scores: shooting
Alabama shoots an effective 55.2% (#34); Oakland allows 54.7% (#322). Expect about 55.3%, 4.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageOakland
Where Oakland scores: ball control
Oakland turns it over on 14.7% of possessions (#49); Alabama forces turnovers on 12.8% of opponent possessions (#359). Expect about 13.0%, 3.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.6 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversAlabama
Alabama protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 13.6% is worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions for Alabama's offense.
ClashOakland
Style match: 3-point volume
Oakland rarely shoots threes (34.0% of its shots); Alabama runs teams off the line (35.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.5% — both habits push the same way.
GlassAlabama
Alabama owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.7% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for Alabama's offense.
Oakland has the ball
OffenseAlabama allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #114
49.2% #73
-0.4 pt/100
14.7% #49
12.8% #359
+4.6 pt/100
31.3% #152
32.8% #295
+1.1 pt/100
38.1% #100
32.0% #103
-0.0 pt/100
75.1% #79
—
+0.2 pt/100
Oakland net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.5 pts/100
Alabama has the ball
OffenseOakland allowsvs D1 avg
55.2% #34
54.7% #322
+5.8 pt/100
13.1% #9
15.1% #284
+3.9 pt/100
32.4% #111
34.4% #324
+2.0 pt/100
36.0% #150
24.6% #4
-0.7 pt/100
76.7% #39
—
+0.4 pt/100
Alabama net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +11.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersOaklandoffense vsAlabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
Oakland shoots
45.2
8.6
12.5
33.7
Alabama allows
36.8
7.0
21.2
35.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.1%#192 | 55.1%#64 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.6%#56 | 36.3%#98 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.4%#135 | 38.5%#175 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#131 | 33.8%#170 | 33.7% |
Alabamaoffense vsOaklanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Alabama shoots
33.8
4.7
7.5
54.0
Oakland allows
36.5
6.6
14.8
42.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.8%#98 | 61.3%#277 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.6%#88 | 45.0%#299 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.7%#10 | 48.9%#365 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.8%#66 | 34.3%#206 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersOakland
+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#57 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#152
Def reb %
65.6%
#324
Turnover %
14.7%
#49
Forced TO %
15.1%
#284
FT rate
38.1%
#100
FT allowed
24.6%
#4
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+2.7
Alabama
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#148 of 365
Off reb %
32.4%
#111
Def reb %
67.2%
#295
Turnover %
13.1%
#9
Forced TO %
12.8%
#359
FT rate
36.0%
#150
FT allowed
32.0%
#103
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+2.5
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Oakland has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.9 (#57 of 365) to Alabama’s +0.8 (#148).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Oakland2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Oakland's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Brody Robinson | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-32 | 35.8 | 17.6 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 52.2% | 36.8% | 6.4 | 79.8% | 26.6% | |
| 12 | Tuburu Naivalurua | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 54.4% | 34.0% | 1.7 | 71.5% | 23.7% | |
| 2 | Ziare Wells | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-26 | 26.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 53.5% | 37.7% | 1.9 | 70.9% | 21.2% | |
| 32 | Isaac Garrett | F | Jr | 6'8" | 28-28 | 28.9 | 13.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 54.8% | 25.0% | 0.9 | 80.4% | 25.9% | |
| 10 | Brett White II | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 24.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 55.5% | 36.5% | 6.3 | 71.4% | 19.5% | |
| 6 | Michael Houge | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-26 | 26.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 53.9% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 72.2% | 26.7% | |
| 21 | Khoi Thurmon | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-0 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 35.8% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 64.3% | 19.0% | |
| 13 | Warren Marshall IV | G | Fr | 6'6" | 29-0 | 12.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 57.2% | 23.3% | 1.0 | 58.3% | 15.4% | |
| 0 | Nassim Mashhour | G | So | 6'6" | 10-10 | 27.2 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 53.9% | 37.7% | 5.3 | 84.6% | 18.0% | |
| 5 | MJ Yeager | G | Fr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.9 | — | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Donny Yeager | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Hamoudy Mashhour | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | William Kassi | G | Jr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Alabama2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Amari Allen | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-24 | 28.3 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 53.3% | 34.1% | 4.3 | 73.8% | 21.7% | |
| 22 | Aiden Sherrell | F | So | 6'10" | 34-34 | 23.9 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 59.5% | 33.8% | 2.4 | 71.3% | 22.4% | |
| 2 | Aden Holloway | G | Jr | 6'1" | 28-27 | 28.4 | 16.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 59.9% | 43.8% | 6.0 | 86.4% | 27.3% | |
| 7 | Taylor Bol Bowen | F | Jr | 6'10" | 30-11 | 19.1 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 51.0% | 30.2% | 3.2 | 79.6% | 18.0% | |
| 6 | London Jemison | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-13 | 15.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 54.1% | 34.8% | 2.7 | 60.4% | 21.5% | |
| 15 | Noah Williamson | C | Sr | 7'0" | 33-0 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 36.5% | 16.7% | 0.9 | 64.3% | 14.7% | |
| 1 | Jalil Bethea | G | So | 6'5" | 26-0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 47.5% | 31.4% | 2.0 | 80.6% | 27.6% | |
| 4 | Davion Hannah | G | Fr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 53.8% | 36.4% | 1.1 | 62.5% | 16.4% | |
| 10 | Keitenn Bristow | F | So | 6'10" | 10-1 | 12.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 37.9% | 11.1% | 0.9 | 73.3% | 20.0% | |
| 11 | Preston Murphy Jr. | G | Jr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 17.8% | |
| 25 | Jacob Martin | F | So | — | 9-0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 8.1% | |
| 34 | Collins Onyejiaka | C | Fr | 6'11" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 22.7% | |
| 31 | Jack Fagan | G | So | — | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 30 | Klark James | G | Sr | — | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Oakland2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Oakland's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Brody Robinson | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-32 | 35.8 | 17.6 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 52.2% | 36.8% | 6.4 | 79.8% | 26.6% | |
| 12 | Tuburu Naivalurua | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 54.4% | 34.0% | 1.7 | 71.5% | 23.7% | |
| 2 | Ziare Wells | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-26 | 26.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 53.5% | 37.7% | 1.9 | 70.9% | 21.2% | |
| 32 | Isaac Garrett | F | Jr | 6'8" | 28-28 | 28.9 | 13.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 54.8% | 25.0% | 0.9 | 80.4% | 25.9% | |
| 10 | Brett White II | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 24.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 55.5% | 36.5% | 6.3 | 71.4% | 19.5% | |
| 6 | Michael Houge | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-26 | 26.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 53.9% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 72.2% | 26.7% | |
| 21 | Khoi Thurmon | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-0 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 35.8% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 64.3% | 19.0% | |
| 13 | Warren Marshall IV | G | Fr | 6'6" | 29-0 | 12.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 57.2% | 23.3% | 1.0 | 58.3% | 15.4% | |
| 0 | Nassim Mashhour | G | So | 6'6" | 10-10 | 27.2 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 53.9% | 37.7% | 5.3 | 84.6% | 18.0% | |
| 5 | MJ Yeager | G | Fr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.9 | — | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Donny Yeager | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Hamoudy Mashhour | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | William Kassi | G | Jr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Oakland
Against the spread
Season
17-14
Home
5-7
Road
10-7
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −5.3
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
19-12
Home
9-3
Road
9-8
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −3.2
Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | N Kentucky | H | L 84–85 | −2.0 | L−3.0 | 162.5 | O169 | 115.1 | 116.5 | 73.0 |
| Feb 28 | Detroit Mercy | H | L 89–95 | −8.0 | L−14.0 | 161.5 | O184 | 123.4 | 131.7 | 72.1 |
| Feb 25 | IU Indy | A | W 86–74 | −5.5 | W+6.5 | 167.5 | U160 | 118.5 | 101.9 | 72.6 |
| Feb 22 | Milwaukee | H | W 81–70 | −6.5 | W+4.5 | 160.0 | U151 | 123.9 | 107.1 | 65.4 |
| Feb 20 | Green Bay | H | L 68–73 | −6.5 | L−11.5 | 153.5 | U141 | 107.8 | 115.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 15 | Robert Morris | A | L 69–93 | +1.5 | L−22.5 | 156.0 | O162 | 104.4 | 140.7 | 66.1 |
| Feb 12 | Youngstown St | H | L 82–86 | −4.0 | L−8.0 | 156.0 | O168 | 117.4 | 123.1 | 69.8 |
| Feb 4 | Cleveland St | A | L 78–91 | −8.0 | L−21.0 | 169.5 | U169 | 109.5 | 127.7 | 71.3 |
| Feb 1 | N Kentucky | H | W 76–65 | −3.0 | W+8.0 | 167.5 | U141 | 99.6 | 85.2 | 76.3 |
| Jan 28 | Purdue FW | A | W 74–65 | −1.0 | W+8.0 | 162.5 | U139 | 106.6 | 93.6 | 69.4 |
Alabama
Against the spread
Season
16-19
Home
6-9
Road
5-5
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +2.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
18-17
Home
7-8
Road
7-3
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +2.0
Under 2 straightOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | #1Michigan | N | L 77–90 | +9.5 | L−3.5 | 173.0 | U167 | 108.3 | 126.6 | 71.1 |
| Mar 22 | #5Texas Tech | N | W 90–65 | −1.0 | W+24.0 | 164.5 | U155 | 129.9 | 93.8 | 69.3 |
| Mar 20 | #13Hofstra | N | W 90–70 | −11.5 | W+8.5 | 159.0 | O160 | 129.1 | 100.4 | 69.7 |
| Mar 13 | Ole Miss | N | L 79–80 | −12.5 | L−13.5 | 164.5 | U159 | 107.5 | 108.8 | 73.5 |
| Mar 7 | Auburn | H | W 96–84 | −6.0 | W+6.0 | 175.0 | O180 | 134.9 | 118.0 | 71.2 |
| Mar 3 | Georgia | A | L 88–98 | −1.5 | L−11.5 | 180.0 | O186 | 117.7 | 131.1 | 74.7 |
| Feb 28 | #22Tennessee | A | W 71–69 | +5.0 | W+7.0 | 162.5 | U140 | 112.7 | 109.5 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Mississippi St | H | W 100–75 | −12.5 | W+12.5 | 175.5 | U175 | 131.7 | 98.8 | 75.9 |
| Feb 21 | LSU | A | W 90–83 | −7.5 | L−0.5 | 172.0 | O173 | 126.7 | 116.9 | 71.0 |
| Feb 18 | #20Arkansas | H | W 117–115 2OT | −4.0 | L−2.0 | 181.0 | O232 | 133.6 | 131.3 | 87.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOaklandAlabama
Efficiency
112.6
120.7
112.3
104.9
70.0
71.9
—
—
Shooting
52.7%
55.2%
53.0%
57.0%
34.7%
35.8%
75.1%
76.7%
38.1%
36.0%
Ball control & glass
14.7%
13.1%
15.1%
12.8%
31.3%
32.4%
34.4%
32.8%
7.6%
8.6%
11.7%
12.6%
Style
34.0%
54.3%
49.0%
35.8%
18.8%
14.3%
54.9%
54.3%
23.7%
33.9%
Roster
3.55
2.08
6'5.1"
6'7.4"
—
62.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputOakland
Returning minutes: 99.3%Returning production: 99.6%
ESPN hasn't posted Oakland's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 99% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Alabama
Returning minutes: 62.0%Returning production: 60.6%
Lost
- Labaron Philon Jr. 29.1 mpg, 20.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Houston Mallette 23.3 mpg, 6.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Latrell Wrightsell Jr. 21.0 mpg, 10.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Charles Bediako 3.1 mpg, 1.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
Nobody of note.
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.