CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceKaplan Arena, Williamsburg, VA

Norfolk St

Efficiency #305

2025-26: 15-17 · 8-7 conf

William & Mary

Efficiency #127

2025-26: 20-12 · 11-9 conf

Mon, Nov 9 · TBD

72.6

win 16%

Projected

84.0

win 84%

No line posted yet.

Model: W&M −11.5 · total 156.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: William & Mary 71.8, Norfolk St 68.8 → 72.3 possessions

+8.7

William & Mary offense vs Norfolk St defense

+3.5

Norfolk St offense vs William & Mary defense

−3.8

Projected total

156.6

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

William & Mary offense vs Norfolk St defense

+3.5

Norfolk St offense vs William & Mary defense

+3.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.2

William & Mary by 11.5

11.5

Norfolk St side ◂▸ William & Mary side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help William & Mary.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, William & Mary is the faster team (73.6, #9 of 365) and Norfolk St the slower (69.1, #140). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

72.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

156.6

model

Projected team totals

72.6 / 84.0

Norfolk St / William & Mary

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.8#132

Norfolk St

71.8#6

William & Mary

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

William & Mary averages 73.6 possessions per 40, Norfolk St 69.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashWilliam & Mary

Style match: ball movement

William & Mary assists on 63.8% of its made baskets; Norfolk St allows assists on 58.1% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 63.5% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageNorfolk St

Where Norfolk St struggles: ball control

Norfolk St turns it over on 18.7% of possessions (#310); William & Mary forces turnovers on 19.0% of opponent possessions (#48). Expect about 19.3%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageWilliam & Mary

Where William & Mary scores: shooting

William & Mary shoots an effective 54.3% (#58); Norfolk St allows 51.7% (#196). Expect about 53.2%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.

ClashNorfolk St

Style clash: 3-point volume

Norfolk St rarely shoots threes (30.6% of its shots); William & Mary lets opponents take 45.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 36.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Norfolk St has the ball

OffenseWilliam & Mary allowsvs D1 avg

49.3% #277

51.9% #205

-1.2 pt/100

18.7% #310

19.0% #48

-3.1 pt/100

32.5% #108

31.5% #229

+1.2 pt/100

43.5% #13

35.5% #195

+0.5 pt/100

68.1% #323

—

-0.4 pt/100

Norfolk St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.0 pts/100

William & Mary has the ball

OffenseNorfolk St allowsvs D1 avg

54.3% #58

51.7% #196

+2.8 pt/100

16.5% #169

18.8% #56

-1.4 pt/100

26.0% #324

32.3% #270

-1.3 pt/100

44.0% #9

45.3% #351

+1.3 pt/100

74.9% #87

—

+0.2 pt/100

William & Mary net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Norfolk Stoffense vsWilliam & Marydefense

Share of shots by zone

Norfolk St shoots

43.1

5.2

21.8

30.0

William & Mary allows

38.6

4.2

11.3

45.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.3%#292	59.9%#222	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.1%#268	34.2%#48	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.5%#249	40.2%#249	38.0%
Three	34.2%#157	33.1%#126	33.7%

William & Maryoffense vsNorfolk Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

William & Mary shoots

43.8

4.6

8.6

43.0

Norfolk St allows

38.8

3.6

14.7

42.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.0%#37	61.1%#273	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.0%#332	41.2%#213	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#120	42.7%#327	38.0%
Three	33.0%#233	32.0%#61	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Norfolk St

−0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#183 of 365

Off reb %

32.5%

#108

Def reb %

67.7%

#270

Turnover %

18.7%

#310

Forced TO %

18.8%

#56

FT rate

43.5%

#13

FT allowed

45.3%

#351

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.7

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security−1.3

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn+2.2

Foul shots allowed−2.6

William & Mary

+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#83 of 365

Off reb %

26.0%

#324

Def reb %

68.5%

#229

Turnover %

16.5%

#169

Forced TO %

19.0%

#48

FT rate

44.0%

FT allowed

35.5%

#195

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security+0.2

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn+2.3

Foul shots allowed−0.1

William & Mary has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#83 of 365) to Norfolk St’s −0.1 (#183).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Norfolk St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Norfolk St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Anthony McComb III	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	34.2	17.1	4.2	1.4	1.7	49.6%	38.1%	5.3	79.0%	28.4%
2	Elijah Jamison	G	Sr	6'3"	32-12	27.4	14.6	3.3	2.9	2.2	47.8%	29.2%	3.0	81.2%	32.9%
11	Devon Ellis	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	27.3	11.1	4.4	1.6	1.3	59.1%	38.9%	1.7	68.3%	21.7%
20	Jordan Leaks	G	So	6'3"	32-28	23.5	5.4	3.4	1.6	1.2	42.5%	27.0%	3.5	44.7%	18.1%
23	Keyontae Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	31-23	17.8	5.6	3.9	0.5	0.9	56.9%	—	0.0	57.4%	18.7%
3	My'kel Jenkins	G	Fr	6'5"	27-0	18.9	5.7	3.2	1.0	1.0	44.1%	32.8%	2.3	71.1%	21.0%
21	Jaquel Morris	F	Sr	6'8"	32-7	13.7	4.6	3.4	0.2	0.8	70.0%	—	0.0	58.6%	17.4%
0	Adrean Newton	G	Fr	6'0"	27-24	15.4	4.0	1.6	2.1	1.6	52.8%	47.8%	0.9	50.0%	19.5%
1	Dian Wright-Forde	G	Sr	6'3"	31-0	13.3	5.0	1.8	1.2	1.0	48.8%	34.5%	0.9	57.8%	25.2%
6	Melo Baines	F	So	6'8"	29-2	10.8	4.4	2.0	0.1	0.5	67.7%	100.0%	0.0	75.0%	19.4%
14	Yel Deeng	F	Jr	6'8"	13-0	6.5	0.9	1.5	0.1	0.2	35.3%	20.0%	0.8	0.0%	14.2%
22	Mekhi Reid	F	Jr	6'4"	10-0	4.5	2.0	0.9	0.1	0.3	60.7%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	22.2%
13	Ahmad Torrence	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	8.3	1.7	0.7	0.0	0.0	20.0%	0.0%	0.3	75.0%	13.9%
35	Dramane Camara	G	Jr	6'6"	1-0	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	8.3%
24	Ryan Williams	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

William & Mary2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
16	Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi	F	Jr	6'8"	32-31	26.8	11.9	4.1	2.5	1.4	55.0%	35.0%	4.5	78.7%	23.4%
2	Chase Lowe	G	Sr	6'5"	32-32	23.4	9.2	5.8	3.8	1.7	58.0%	11.1%	0.3	72.8%	21.0%
0	Reese Miller	G	Jr	6'4"	30-0	24.5	12.1	2.5	2.4	1.4	52.9%	32.8%	4.3	73.4%	27.1%
11	Kyle Pulliam	G	Sr	6'4"	30-29	24.4	10.4	3.4	1.9	1.0	51.7%	30.1%	3.1	82.0%	21.9%
23	Jo'el Emanuel	F	Sr	6'6"	31-4	22.1	8.5	3.0	1.6	1.3	58.2%	33.3%	1.4	69.6%	20.0%
15	Ryan Jackson Jr.	G	So	6'6"	31-0	18.6	7.0	3.0	0.8	0.7	69.4%	52.4%	0.7	67.9%	16.8%
1	Cade Haskins	F	Sr	6'6"	32-31	16.9	6.3	2.4	0.8	0.8	51.8%	34.4%	4.1	76.5%	21.3%
8	Jhei-R Jones	G	Sr	6'1"	24-0	17.7	5.4	2.2	1.5	1.2	52.2%	33.3%	2.0	82.9%	17.8%
43	Finn Lally	F	Sr	6'8"	25-1	10.0	3.9	1.9	1.0	0.6	56.5%	38.5%	1.0	66.7%	21.1%
7	Kyle Frazier	G	Sr	6'2"	16-1	5.6	1.7	0.6	0.3	0.0	39.1%	22.2%	1.1	69.2%	17.2%
24	Kaleb Spencer	F	Fr	6'8"	6-0	5.7	3.0	3.7	1.2	0.7	56.7%	25.0%	0.7	33.3%	30.8%
6	Colin Ndaw	G	So	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.0	1.0	0.6	0.4	33.3%	0.0%	0.6	66.7%	25.9%
5	Ethan Connery	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Miles Hicks	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Norfolk St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Norfolk St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Anthony McComb III	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	34.2	17.1	4.2	1.4	1.7	49.6%	38.1%	5.3	79.0%	28.4%
2	Elijah Jamison	G	Sr	6'3"	32-12	27.4	14.6	3.3	2.9	2.2	47.8%	29.2%	3.0	81.2%	32.9%
11	Devon Ellis	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	27.3	11.1	4.4	1.6	1.3	59.1%	38.9%	1.7	68.3%	21.7%
20	Jordan Leaks	G	So	6'3"	32-28	23.5	5.4	3.4	1.6	1.2	42.5%	27.0%	3.5	44.7%	18.1%
23	Keyontae Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	31-23	17.8	5.6	3.9	0.5	0.9	56.9%	—	0.0	57.4%	18.7%
3	My'kel Jenkins	G	Fr	6'5"	27-0	18.9	5.7	3.2	1.0	1.0	44.1%	32.8%	2.3	71.1%	21.0%
21	Jaquel Morris	F	Sr	6'8"	32-7	13.7	4.6	3.4	0.2	0.8	70.0%	—	0.0	58.6%	17.4%
0	Adrean Newton	G	Fr	6'0"	27-24	15.4	4.0	1.6	2.1	1.6	52.8%	47.8%	0.9	50.0%	19.5%
1	Dian Wright-Forde	G	Sr	6'3"	31-0	13.3	5.0	1.8	1.2	1.0	48.8%	34.5%	0.9	57.8%	25.2%
6	Melo Baines	F	So	6'8"	29-2	10.8	4.4	2.0	0.1	0.5	67.7%	100.0%	0.0	75.0%	19.4%
14	Yel Deeng	F	Jr	6'8"	13-0	6.5	0.9	1.5	0.1	0.2	35.3%	20.0%	0.8	0.0%	14.2%
22	Mekhi Reid	F	Jr	6'4"	10-0	4.5	2.0	0.9	0.1	0.3	60.7%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	22.2%
13	Ahmad Torrence	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	8.3	1.7	0.7	0.0	0.0	20.0%	0.0%	0.3	75.0%	13.9%
35	Dramane Camara	G	Jr	6'6"	1-0	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	8.3%
24	Ryan Williams	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Norfolk St

Against the spread

Season

12-15-1

Home

4-4-1

Road

7-8

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −3.6

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-10

Home

6-3

Road

8-7

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +7.5

Over 5 straightOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	SC StateAdjEM #357	N	L 82–88	−8.5	L−14.5	144.5	O170	108.6	116.6	75.5
Mar 5	HowardAdjEM #160	H	L 76–84	+6.5	L−1.5	148.5	O160	109.8	121.4	69.2
Mar 2	Morgan StAdjEM #349	A	L 84–90	−3.5	L−9.5	157.0	O174	111.4	119.4	75.4
Feb 28	Coppin StAdjEM #364	A	W 75–69	−8.0	L−2.0	141.5	O144	113.6	104.5	66.0
Feb 21	SC StateAdjEM #357	H	W 90–71	−10.0	W+9.0	140.5	O161	126.1	99.5	71.4
Feb 16	MD EasternAdjEM #345	A	W 70–66	−2.0	W+2.0	136.5	U136	118.5	111.7	59.1
Feb 14	Delaware StAdjEM #358	H	W 75–58	−9.0	W+8.0	134.0	U133	119.1	92.1	63.0
Feb 7	NC CentralAdjEM #346	H	W 75–68	−4.5	W+2.5	148.5	U143	104.5	94.8	71.7
Jan 31	HowardAdjEM #160	A	L 60–88	+7.0	L−21.0	146.5	O148	85.6	125.5	70.1
Jan 26	Morgan StAdjEM #349	H	L 78–79	−8.0	L−9.0	153.5	O157	102.5	103.8	76.1

William & Mary

Against the spread

Season

16-14

Home

6-5

Road

7-8

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −2.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-17-1

Home

5-6

Road

6-9

Last 10

3-6-1

avg vs total −0.3

Over in 2 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	HofstraAdjEM #69	N	L 61–92	+2.5	L−28.5	153.0	P153	92.8	140.0	65.7
Mar 7	ElonAdjEM #228	N	W 72–62	−5.5	W+4.5	163.5	U134	106.4	91.6	67.7
Mar 3	HamptonAdjEM #268	H	W 94–85	−11.5	L−2.5	154.0	O179	130.3	117.9	72.1
Feb 28	NC A&TAdjEM #271	A	W 91–88	−7.0	L−4.0	163.5	O179	121.0	117.0	75.2
Feb 26	NortheasternAdjEM #274	H	W 84–77	−11.0	L−4.0	164.5	U161	105.1	96.4	79.9
Feb 19	CampbellAdjEM #208	A	L 83–84	−2.5	L−3.5	167.5	U167	111.8	113.1	74.3
Feb 14	ElonAdjEM #228	H	L 78–81	−8.0	L−11.0	165.5	U159	109.6	113.8	71.2
Feb 12	NortheasternAdjEM #274	A	W 94–67	−5.5	W+21.5	167.5	U161	135.0	96.2	69.7
Feb 7	HamptonAdjEM #268	A	L 74–77	−5.5	L−8.5	152.0	U151	103.6	107.7	71.5
Feb 5	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	A	W 85–78	+4.5	W+11.5	159.0	O163	125.9	115.6	67.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Norfolk StWilliam & Mary

Efficiency

103.9

110.1

111.7

107.7

68.8

71.8

—

Shooting

49.3%

54.3%

48.4%

57.9%

34.2%

33.0%

68.1%

74.9%

43.5%

44.0%

Ball control & glass

18.7%

16.5%

18.8%

19.0%

32.5%

26.0%

32.3%

31.5%

10.7%

9.9%

10.8%

9.8%

Style

30.6%

42.8%

45.2%

43.3%

18.4%

19.6%

45.9%

63.8%

38.5%

43.8%

Roster

3.20

3.49

6'4.7"

6'5.3"

—

89.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Norfolk St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Norfolk St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

William & Mary

Returning minutes: 89.1%Returning production: 88.7%

Lost

Kilian Brockhoff 21.7 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to E Michigan

Added

Miles Hicks no D1 minutes last season
Ethan Connery no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 89% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 8	2025-26	William & Mary 81 – 78 Norfolk St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.