CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferencePete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, LA

Louisiana Tech

Efficiency #211

2025-26: 20-14 · 13-10 conf

LSU

Efficiency #72

2025-26: 15-17 · 3-16 conf

Mon, Nov 9 · TBD

66.3

win 21%

Projected

75.6

win 79%

No line posted yet.

Model: LSU −9.4 · total 141.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: LSU 67.9, Louisiana Tech 66.1 → 65.6 possessions

−5.8

LSU offense vs Louisiana Tech defense

+2.5

Louisiana Tech offense vs LSU defense

−3.1

Projected total

141.9

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

LSU offense vs Louisiana Tech defense

+2.5

Louisiana Tech offense vs LSU defense

+3.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

LSU by 9.4

9.4

Louisiana Tech side ◂▸ LSU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.8 against a projected 141.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help LSU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, LSU is the faster team (68.6, #168 of 365) and Louisiana Tech the slower (64.7, #337). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

141.9

model

Projected team totals

66.3 / 75.6

Louisiana Tech / LSU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.1#339

Louisiana Tech

67.9#219

LSU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

DefenseLouisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech's shot-blocking

Louisiana Tech ranks #5 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.2% of LSU's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageLouisiana Tech

Where Louisiana Tech struggles: shooting

Louisiana Tech shoots an effective 47.4% (#329); LSU allows 50.9% (#150). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.

GlassLouisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.2% is worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions for Louisiana Tech's offense.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

LSU averages 68.6 possessions per 40, Louisiana Tech 64.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashLouisiana Tech

Style match: ball movement

Louisiana Tech creates off the dribble (assists on 48.0% of its baskets); LSU breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.3% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 45.6% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Louisiana Tech) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Louisiana Tech at about 33.6% of its shots from three, LSU about 40.2%.

Louisiana Tech has the ball

OffenseLSU allowsvs D1 avg

47.4% #329

50.9% #150

-3.4 pt/100

18.3% #286

13.9% #338

+1.2 pt/100

36.4% #21

31.7% #239

+2.9 pt/100

33.1% #234

37.8% #256

+0.1 pt/100

67.2% #341

—

-0.5 pt/100

Louisiana Tech net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.3 pts/100

LSU has the ball

OffenseLouisiana Tech allowsvs D1 avg

52.8% #111

48.7% #51

-0.6 pt/100

15.6% #107

17.8% #105

-0.0 pt/100

33.1% #87

31.6% #232

+1.5 pt/100

40.9% #49

36.3% #222

+0.5 pt/100

76.4% #43

—

+0.3 pt/100

LSU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Louisiana Techoffense vsLSUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Louisiana Tech shoots

42.5

5.7

18.8

32.9

LSU allows

39.5

6.9

16.5

37.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.3%#293	56.4%#98	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.6%#158	34.2%#47	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#122	39.9%#241	38.0%
Three	28.5%#359	35.4%#271	33.7%

LSUoffense vsLouisiana Techdefense

Share of shots by zone

LSU shoots

40.3

9.4

15.8

34.5

Louisiana Tech allows

36.2

3.9

13.8

46.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.8%#56	52.2%#17	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.3%#240	38.7%#153	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.8%#115	34.4%#58	38.0%
Three	33.1%#225	33.9%#178	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Louisiana Tech

+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#155 of 365

Off reb %

36.4%

#21

Def reb %

68.4%

#232

Turnover %

18.3%

#286

Forced TO %

17.8%

#105

FT rate

33.1%

#234

FT allowed

36.3%

#222

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.9

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed−0.3

LSU

+0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#170 of 365

Off reb %

33.1%

#87

Def reb %

68.3%

#239

Turnover %

15.6%

#107

Forced TO %

13.9%

#338

FT rate

40.9%

#49

FT allowed

37.8%

#256

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers−1.9

Foul shots drawn+1.5

Foul shots allowed−0.7

Louisiana Tech has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#155 of 365) to LSU’s +0.3 (#170).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Louisiana Tech2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Louisiana Tech's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	AJ Bates	G	So	6'3"	34-34	33.4	12.1	2.8	5.9	2.4	41.8%	27.7%	3.8	78.3%	27.9%
0	DJ Dudley	G	Jr	6'3"	34-27	30.4	13.8	2.8	2.0	2.4	50.5%	36.2%	4.8	68.5%	31.3%
5	Avery Thomas II	F	So	6'8"	33-26	25.2	9.1	7.2	0.6	0.8	47.3%	30.0%	3.6	77.8%	23.4%
11	Kaden Cooper	G	Jr	6'6"	29-10	25.9	9.7	7.7	1.1	1.4	51.3%	29.2%	2.2	67.6%	24.1%
4	Jaylen Fenner	G	Fr	6'6"	32-24	21.5	5.5	2.8	1.0	1.0	45.2%	30.8%	1.6	65.2%	18.7%
8	Scooter Williams	G	Sr	6'4"	28-3	21.1	10.0	2.9	1.4	0.9	48.0%	24.4%	2.8	66.7%	30.4%
14	Will Allen	F	Sr	6'7"	33-10	15.9	3.3	3.6	0.3	0.9	54.4%	26.1%	0.7	55.0%	15.1%
21	Melian Martinez	C	Jr	7'0"	30-19	15.5	4.2	2.9	0.2	0.8	74.4%	—	0.0	31.3%	14.9%
7	Sir Issac Herron	F	Sr	6'10"	27-10	13.0	4.6	2.4	0.5	0.9	59.9%	33.3%	0.1	54.1%	22.1%
10	Kylan Howze	F	Jr	6'9"	24-4	11.1	2.2	2.3	0.3	0.5	55.6%	—	0.0	43.3%	14.3%
2	Will Jeffress	F	Sr	6'8"	10-3	13.6	2.3	3.4	0.1	0.3	25.7%	5.9%	1.7	66.7%	19.1%
1	Jermaurhiyun Anderson	G	So	6'4"	3-0	16.7	1.7	3.3	0.0	0.0	22.2%	0.0%	0.7	33.3%	12.0%
6	Keegan Rowell	G	So	6'3"	10-0	4.4	2.1	0.3	0.1	0.2	80.8%	55.6%	0.9	—	20.4%
23	Lachlan Thompson	G	So	6'4"	4-0	2.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.3	100.0%	—	0.0	—	14.4%
27	A'Meir Williams	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

LSU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Pablo Tamba	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	28.6	7.9	7.3	1.5	1.0	64.1%	32.0%	0.8	60.7%	14.6%
2	Jalen Reece	G	Fr	6'0"	32-10	23.8	5.8	1.8	3.6	1.3	42.2%	29.9%	2.4	72.3%	18.6%
1	Mike Nwoko	F	Jr	6'10"	32-29	21.9	13.4	5.9	0.8	1.8	61.0%	0.0%	0.1	76.1%	31.9%
4	Rashad King	G	Sr	6'6"	32-9	18.7	5.8	2.1	1.2	0.9	47.5%	29.5%	2.8	78.6%	20.5%
11	Dedan Thomas Jr.	G	Jr	6'1"	16-15	29.4	15.3	2.7	6.5	1.6	49.4%	30.2%	2.7	83.3%	29.5%
7	PJ Carter	G	Sr	6'4"	25-1	10.8	4.2	0.9	0.3	0.2	49.5%	33.7%	3.4	85.7%	23.1%
0	Mazi Mosley	G	Fr	6'5"	18-0	6.7	1.9	0.7	0.3	0.3	48.6%	38.5%	1.4	0.0%	20.0%
9	Jalen Reed	F	Jr	6'10"	6-0	17.8	9.5	5.7	0.7	1.8	61.4%	42.9%	1.2	66.7%	28.5%
16	Ron Zipper	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	3.6	2.2	0.4	0.2	0.3	53.6%	41.7%	1.3	83.3%	35.5%
14	Jaden Bobbett	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	23.9%
5	Marcus Vaughn	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Matt Gilhool	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Louisiana Tech2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Louisiana Tech's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	AJ Bates	G	So	6'3"	34-34	33.4	12.1	2.8	5.9	2.4	41.8%	27.7%	3.8	78.3%	27.9%
0	DJ Dudley	G	Jr	6'3"	34-27	30.4	13.8	2.8	2.0	2.4	50.5%	36.2%	4.8	68.5%	31.3%
5	Avery Thomas II	F	So	6'8"	33-26	25.2	9.1	7.2	0.6	0.8	47.3%	30.0%	3.6	77.8%	23.4%
11	Kaden Cooper	G	Jr	6'6"	29-10	25.9	9.7	7.7	1.1	1.4	51.3%	29.2%	2.2	67.6%	24.1%
4	Jaylen Fenner	G	Fr	6'6"	32-24	21.5	5.5	2.8	1.0	1.0	45.2%	30.8%	1.6	65.2%	18.7%
8	Scooter Williams	G	Sr	6'4"	28-3	21.1	10.0	2.9	1.4	0.9	48.0%	24.4%	2.8	66.7%	30.4%
14	Will Allen	F	Sr	6'7"	33-10	15.9	3.3	3.6	0.3	0.9	54.4%	26.1%	0.7	55.0%	15.1%
21	Melian Martinez	C	Jr	7'0"	30-19	15.5	4.2	2.9	0.2	0.8	74.4%	—	0.0	31.3%	14.9%
7	Sir Issac Herron	F	Sr	6'10"	27-10	13.0	4.6	2.4	0.5	0.9	59.9%	33.3%	0.1	54.1%	22.1%
10	Kylan Howze	F	Jr	6'9"	24-4	11.1	2.2	2.3	0.3	0.5	55.6%	—	0.0	43.3%	14.3%
2	Will Jeffress	F	Sr	6'8"	10-3	13.6	2.3	3.4	0.1	0.3	25.7%	5.9%	1.7	66.7%	19.1%
1	Jermaurhiyun Anderson	G	So	6'4"	3-0	16.7	1.7	3.3	0.0	0.0	22.2%	0.0%	0.7	33.3%	12.0%
6	Keegan Rowell	G	So	6'3"	10-0	4.4	2.1	0.3	0.1	0.2	80.8%	55.6%	0.9	—	20.4%
23	Lachlan Thompson	G	So	6'4"	4-0	2.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.3	100.0%	—	0.0	—	14.4%
27	A'Meir Williams	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Louisiana Tech

Against the spread

Season

17-14

Home

8-6

Road

7-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +4.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-16-1

Home

9-5

Road

4-10

Last 10

5-4-1

avg vs total −0.7

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	N	L 60–71	−1.0	L−12.0	142.0	U131	93.1	110.1	64.5
Mar 13	Missouri StAdjEM #212	N	W 69–66	+1.0	W+4.0	135.0	P135	121.4	116.1	56.8
Mar 12	MTSUAdjEM #167	N	W 80–69	+2.0	W+13.0	133.5	O149	120.6	104.0	66.3
Mar 7	DelawareAdjEM #302	A	W 81–38	−2.0	W+41.0	132.5	U119	128.5	60.3	63.0
Mar 5	LibertyAdjEM #103	A	W 76–71	+8.5	W+13.5	139.0	O147	127.1	118.8	59.8
Feb 28	FIUAdjEM #200	H	L 76–84	−2.0	L−10.0	146.0	O160	109.2	120.7	69.6
Feb 26	Missouri StAdjEM #212	H	W 72–70	−2.5	L−0.5	137.0	O142	108.4	105.4	66.4
Feb 21	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	A	L 55–58	+6.0	W+3.0	147.5	U113	81.1	85.6	67.8
Feb 18	Jax StateAdjEM #215	H	W 77–71	−2.0	W+4.0	133.0	O148	109.6	101.1	70.2
Feb 14	FIUAdjEM #200	A	L 64–77	+3.0	L−10.0	146.5	U141	94.7	113.9	67.6

LSU

Against the spread

Season

18-14

Home

7-10

Road

8-2

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.1

Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15-2

Home

7-8-2

Road

5-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +10.2

Over 3 straightOver in 6 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	L 82–87	+9.0	W+4.0	151.5	O169	116.8	123.9	70.2
Mar 7	Texas A&MAdjEM #43	H	L 91–94 3OT	+2.5	L−0.5	160.5	O185	98.7	101.9	92.2
Mar 3	AuburnAdjEM #41	A	L 74–88	+10.5	L−3.5	155.5	O162	109.8	130.6	67.4
Feb 28	OklahomaAdjEM #47	H	L 67–83	−2.0	L−18.0	156.0	U150	102.6	127.1	65.3
Feb 25	Ole MissAdjEM #82	A	W 106–99 2OT	+2.0	W+9.0	147.0	O205	125.8	117.5	84.3
Feb 21	#25AlabamaAdjEM #18	H	L 83–90	+7.5	W+0.5	172.0	O173	116.9	126.7	71.0
Feb 17	TexasAdjEM #38	A	L 85–88	+11.0	W+8.0	151.0	O173	123.9	128.3	68.6
Feb 14	TennesseeAdjEM #13	A	L 63–73	+14.5	W+4.5	143.5	U136	107.7	124.8	58.5
Feb 10	#21ArkansasAdjEM #19	H	L 62–91	+5.0	L−24.0	159.0	U153	83.1	122.0	74.6
Feb 7	GeorgiaAdjEM #32	H	L 71–83	+1.0	L−11.0	161.5	U154	107.7	125.9	65.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Louisiana TechLSU

Efficiency

104.4

114.7

106.1

107.9

66.1

67.9

—

Shooting

47.4%

52.8%

49.7%

54.5%

28.5%

33.1%

67.2%

76.4%

33.1%

40.9%

Ball control & glass

18.3%

15.6%

17.8%

13.9%

36.4%

33.1%

31.6%

31.7%

10.1%

9.5%

10.2%

8.3%

Style

33.4%

34.5%

47.1%

46.3%

13.0%

13.4%

48.0%

52.5%

36.6%

29.8%

Roster

2.73

2.99

6'5.9"

6'5.1"

—

60.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Louisiana Tech

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Louisiana Tech's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

LSU

Returning minutes: 60.6%Returning production: 60.9%

Lost

Marquel Sutton 31.4 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Max Mackinnon 30.9 mpg, 15.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Robert Miller III 18.8 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to Miami

Added

Matt Gilhool no D1 minutes last season
Marcus Vaughn no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 61% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.