CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLevien Gymnasium, New York, NY
Stonehill
Efficiency #320
2025-26: 12-21 · 9-11 conf
@
Columbia
Efficiency #166
2025-26: 16-12 · 5-9 conf
Mon, Nov 9 · TBD
64.2
win 19%
Projected
74.6
win 81%
No line posted yet.
Model: COLU −10.4 · total 138.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Columbia 68.0, Stonehill 67.7 → 67.3 possessions
−2.2
Columbia offense vs Stonehill defense
−0.3
Stonehill offense vs Columbia defense
−6.8
Projected total
138.9
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Columbia offense vs Stonehill defense
−0.3
Stonehill offense vs Columbia defense
+6.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Columbia by 10.4
10.4
Stonehill side ◂▸ Columbia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Columbia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Columbia is the faster team (67.1, #236 of 365) and Stonehill the slower (66.6, #265). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.9
model
Projected team totals
64.2 / 74.6
Stonehill / Columbia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#240
Stonehill
68.0#211
Columbia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageStonehill
Where Stonehill struggles: shooting
Stonehill shoots an effective 46.9% (#339); Columbia allows 51.2% (#168). Expect about 48.7%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions.
GlassStonehill
Stonehill gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.8% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Stonehill's offense.
ClashColumbia
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
Columbia (#23 in offensive rebounding) against Stonehill (#40 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 32.8%. Historically Columbia's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
ClashColumbia
Style match: paint scoring
Columbia scores 47.0% of its points in the paint; Stonehill gives up 46.6% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.1% — both habits push the same way.
Stonehill has the ball
OffenseColumbia allowsvs D1 avg
46.9% #339
51.2% #168
-3.7 pt/100
19.4% #335
15.0% #288
-0.5 pt/100
27.5% #282
27.2% #42
-2.2 pt/100
27.3% #350
33.5% #140
-0.6 pt/100
68.5% #311
—
-0.3 pt/100
Stonehill net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.3 pts/100
Columbia has the ball
OffenseStonehill allowsvs D1 avg
53.5% #83
47.8% #36
-0.7 pt/100
19.3% #333
13.4% #347
+0.9 pt/100
36.1% #23
27.1% #40
+1.4 pt/100
28.6% #337
30.3% #67
-0.7 pt/100
70.1% #271
—
-0.2 pt/100
Columbia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Stonehilloffense vsColumbiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Stonehill shoots
Columbia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim49.6%#36255.9%#8458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)28.4%#35535.6%#7739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.1%#28542.1%#30838.0%
Three31.7%#29435.2%#25833.7%
Columbiaoffense vsStonehilldefense
Share of shots by zone
Columbia shoots
Stonehill allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.8%#16753.6%#3358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.0%#22237.2%#11439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.3%#13734.2%#5438.0%
Three35.9%#6133.4%#15033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Stonehill
−4.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#341 of 365
Off reb %
27.5%
#282
Def reb %
72.9%
#40
Turnover %
19.4%
#335
Forced TO %
13.4%
#347
FT rate
27.3%
#350
FT allowed
30.3%
#67
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers−2.3
Foul shots drawn−2.0
Foul shots allowed+1.3
Columbia
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#241 of 365
Off reb %
36.1%
#23
Def reb %
72.8%
#42
Turnover %
19.3%
#333
Forced TO %
15.0%
#288
FT rate
28.6%
#337
FT allowed
33.5%
#140
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.8
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+0.4

Columbia has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.2 (#241 of 365) to Stonehill’s −4.6 (#341).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Stonehill2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Stonehill's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10Hermann KoffiGSo6'4"32-3235.412.82.81.31.351.4%36.8%6.688.7%22.1%
4Davante HackettGJr6'3"33-1127.713.64.11.51.351.0%34.4%5.673.6%29.8%
5Chas StinsonGSr6'4"32-2927.911.35.51.62.147.2%23.5%1.170.3%27.6%
1Rex SunderlandGSr6'5"33-3226.94.73.53.22.438.3%27.4%2.562.2%17.9%
13Raymond Espinal-GuzmanFSr6'8"33-2224.16.35.11.31.643.1%26.3%2.367.3%20.9%
11Ridvan TuticFJr6'11"30-2422.57.17.81.01.359.4%—0.053.8%19.4%
33Ethan MeuserFSr6'8"20-1120.46.15.21.31.146.4%28.3%3.054.3%22.4%
2Trenton RuthGSo6'3"32-011.43.41.11.20.738.7%28.0%1.662.1%25.2%
31Pearse McGuinnFSo6'8"25-19.32.71.60.30.644.1%25.0%0.678.9%20.9%
30Anthony HoldenGSr6'5"20-010.02.40.90.40.259.0%42.9%1.466.7%12.9%
3William BatchelderGSr6'2"3-327.310.32.01.32.054.0%46.7%5.066.7%22.5%
20Cory LovellFJr6'9"11-05.90.61.00.10.137.5%0.0%0.233.3%9.2%
22Charlie DiamantisGSr6'3"5-03.80.61.20.40.60.0%0.0%0.460.0%21.3%
15Norbu JenpaGFr6'4"6-02.80.80.80.20.535.7%20.0%0.8—32.5%
12Eino MontinGJr6'1"2-04.51.00.50.00.5100.0%—0.00.0%22.8%
21Colin ByrneGFr6'3"2-02.00.01.00.50.0——0.0—0.0%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
StonehillColumbia
Efficiency
98.2
109.0
107.4
108.6
67.7
68.0
—
—
Shooting
46.9%
53.5%
46.5%
53.2%
31.7%
35.9%
68.5%
70.1%
27.3%
28.6%
Ball control & glass
19.4%
19.3%
13.4%
15.0%
27.5%
36.1%
27.1%
27.2%
11.2%
10.1%
13.6%
9.9%
Style
40.5%
37.5%
44.1%
47.0%
12.4%
9.9%
51.3%
54.3%
29.3%
32.6%
Roster
3.23
2.59
6'5.6"
6'5.7"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Stonehill
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Stonehill's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Columbia
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Columbia's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.