CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceThe HTC Center, Conway, SC

SC Upstate

Efficiency #284

2025-26: 13-19 · 5-12 conf

Coastal

Efficiency #241

2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf

Mon, Nov 9 · TBD

67.4

win 31%

Projected

73.2

win 69%

No line posted yet.

Model: CCU −5.8 · total 140.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Coastal 68.1, SC Upstate 68.5 → 68.3 possessions

−0.1

Coastal offense vs SC Upstate defense

−2.8

SC Upstate offense vs Coastal defense

−4.7

Projected total

140.6

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Coastal offense vs SC Upstate defense

−2.8

SC Upstate offense vs Coastal defense

+4.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Coastal by 5.8

5.8

SC Upstate side ◂▸ Coastal side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Coastal.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SC Upstate is the faster team (69.3, #128 of 365) and Coastal the slower (68.3, #189). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

140.6

model

Projected team totals

67.4 / 73.2

SC Upstate / Coastal

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.5#171

SC Upstate

68.1#200

Coastal

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSC Upstate

Where SC Upstate struggles: shooting

SC Upstate shoots an effective 48.3% (#307); Coastal allows 46.8% (#18). Expect about 47.3%, 4.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.7 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSC Upstate

Style match: ball movement

SC Upstate creates off the dribble (assists on 46.0% of its baskets); Coastal breaks up passing offenses (assists on 37.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 38.7% — both habits push the same way.

ClashCoastal

Style match: ball movement

Coastal creates off the dribble (assists on 40.4% of its baskets); SC Upstate breaks up passing offenses (assists on 44.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 39.6% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageCoastal

Where Coastal struggles: shooting

Coastal shoots an effective 47.9% (#314); SC Upstate allows 51.0% (#156). Expect about 49.1%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversSC Upstate

SC Upstate protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.7% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for SC Upstate's offense.

ClashSC Upstate

Style match: 3-point volume

SC Upstate rarely shoots threes (35.6% of its shots); Coastal runs teams off the line (35.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 34.0% — both habits push the same way.

SC Upstate has the ball

OffenseCoastal allowsvs D1 avg

48.3% #307

46.8% #18

-5.7 pt/100

18.2% #283

12.3% #364

+2.5 pt/100

29.2% #231

27.6% #52

-1.4 pt/100

32.8% #239

34.9% #174

-0.1 pt/100

68.1% #324

—

-0.4 pt/100

SC Upstate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.1 pts/100

Coastal has the ball

OffenseSC Upstate allowsvs D1 avg

47.9% #314

51.0% #156

-3.0 pt/100

15.2% #82

16.4% #194

+1.4 pt/100

26.9% #296

31.4% #224

-1.2 pt/100

32.3% #254

36.0% #211

-0.1 pt/100

73.1% #165

—

+0.1 pt/100

Coastal net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

SC Upstateoffense vsCoastaldefense

Share of shots by zone

SC Upstate shoots

41.2

7.8

15.6

35.4

Coastal allows

33.4

5.7

25.7

35.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.8%#303	48.8%#3	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#136	45.2%#302	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.5%#202	38.9%#198	38.0%
Three	31.4%#308	32.8%#105	33.7%

Coastaloffense vsSC Upstatedefense

Share of shots by zone

Coastal shoots

30.7

5.3

21.1

42.9

SC Upstate allows

42.0

6.0

15.7

36.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.7%#324	54.7%#56	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.3%#215	45.5%#309	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.6%#245	35.7%#96	38.0%
Three	33.5%#196	35.6%#289	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

SC Upstate

−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#289 of 365

Off reb %

29.2%

#231

Def reb %

68.6%

#224

Turnover %

18.2%

#283

Forced TO %

16.4%

#194

FT rate

32.8%

#239

FT allowed

36.0%

#211

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Coastal

−2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#291 of 365

Off reb %

26.9%

#296

Def reb %

72.4%

#52

Turnover %

15.2%

#82

Forced TO %

12.3%

#364

FT rate

32.3%

#254

FT allowed

34.9%

#174

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding+1.0

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers−3.0

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+0.1

SC Upstate has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.6 (#289 of 365) to Coastal’s −2.7 (#291).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SC Upstate2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Carmelo Adkins	G	So	6'4"	32-15	29.9	13.5	4.9	1.6	2.0	47.2%	33.0%	5.9	80.7%	28.5%
1	Karmani Gregory	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	30.5	15.6	2.2	2.9	2.2	49.0%	32.8%	5.9	74.6%	31.8%
9	Mason Bendinger	G	Jr	6'4"	32-31	29.4	14.4	3.7	1.2	1.8	47.0%	31.1%	2.3	53.8%	32.3%
0	Tyler Smith	G	Jr	6'0"	31-16	22.9	4.4	2.7	2.8	1.9	40.9%	29.8%	1.5	67.6%	17.1%
2	Isaiah Skinner	G	Sr	6'5"	32-8	20.0	5.1	3.1	1.8	1.0	51.8%	34.9%	3.3	85.7%	16.2%
11	Learic Davis	F	Jr	6'6"	28-20	21.8	8.3	4.6	0.8	1.3	55.6%	32.8%	2.4	75.0%	21.9%
12	Jafeth Martinez	F	Jr	6'9"	31-20	18.3	4.6	5.1	0.2	0.7	67.6%	—	0.0	65.6%	12.6%
7	Coen Collier	C	Jr	7'1"	30-9	14.1	1.8	3.8	0.6	0.5	43.1%	22.2%	0.3	37.5%	10.3%
10	Breylin Garcia	F	Sr	6'6"	21-7	14.8	6.7	4.5	0.9	1.0	60.6%	—	0.0	55.6%	25.4%
6	Kanye Jones	G	Jr	6'5"	22-1	8.9	2.7	0.3	0.4	0.2	50.0%	26.3%	0.9	81.3%	16.7%
24	Chico Johnson	G	So	6'2"	10-0	8.2	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.3	47.7%	42.9%	0.7	50.0%	18.4%
8	Nic Book	F	So	6'8"	7-2	10.3	4.6	3.1	0.4	0.3	81.3%	—	0.0	100.0%	15.8%
21	CJ Rich	G	Jr	5'9"	4-1	11.0	3.3	1.0	1.3	0.8	78.6%	75.0%	1.0	66.7%	13.8%
5	TJ Lewis	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Coastal2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Rasheed Jones	G	Jr	6'6"	32-32	36.2	14.8	4.6	2.9	1.5	49.1%	36.7%	6.1	80.7%	24.8%
0	AJ Dancler	G	Jr	6'2"	32-32	33.2	15.6	5.5	2.1	1.5	49.6%	39.3%	6.3	75.7%	28.5%
5	Joshua Beadle	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	32.2	17.8	3.9	2.9	2.6	46.2%	26.3%	3.7	79.7%	35.8%
21	Reggie Hill	F	Sr	6'7"	31-30	25.2	6.6	5.8	0.8	1.4	45.3%	35.1%	3.6	72.1%	19.2%
4	Nadjrick Peat	F	Sr	6'10"	32-32	23.1	4.3	5.7	0.1	1.1	68.6%	—	0.0	63.5%	10.6%
1	Tristan Thompson	G	Fr	6'5"	32-0	19.5	4.0	4.2	0.8	0.8	43.2%	16.1%	1.0	65.1%	14.9%
3	DaJohn Craig	G	So	6'1"	32-0	12.6	4.5	1.5	0.4	0.5	53.5%	37.2%	2.9	88.9%	20.9%
15	Derrick Green	F	So	6'9"	31-0	10.6	2.1	2.9	0.2	0.4	65.7%	—	0.0	43.2%	12.4%
14	Jerry Ngopot	F	Sr	6'10"	24-2	8.5	2.2	2.3	0.1	0.2	41.4%	28.1%	1.3	0.0%	19.2%
13	Braeden MacVicar	F	So	6'11"	23-0	7.5	2.7	2.1	0.1	0.3	43.3%	29.6%	2.3	68.8%	25.1%
11	Jackson Keil	G	Sr	6'2"	6-0	3.7	0.7	0.3	0.5	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.5	100.0%	17.8%
30	Charles Dunlap	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	4.0	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	8.1%
20	Connor Martin	F	Jr	6'4"	3-0	3.7	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.3	—	17.7%
7	Andre Mulibea	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Devin Brown	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SC Upstate2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Carmelo Adkins	G	So	6'4"	32-15	29.9	13.5	4.9	1.6	2.0	47.2%	33.0%	5.9	80.7%	28.5%
1	Karmani Gregory	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	30.5	15.6	2.2	2.9	2.2	49.0%	32.8%	5.9	74.6%	31.8%
9	Mason Bendinger	G	Jr	6'4"	32-31	29.4	14.4	3.7	1.2	1.8	47.0%	31.1%	2.3	53.8%	32.3%
0	Tyler Smith	G	Jr	6'0"	31-16	22.9	4.4	2.7	2.8	1.9	40.9%	29.8%	1.5	67.6%	17.1%
2	Isaiah Skinner	G	Sr	6'5"	32-8	20.0	5.1	3.1	1.8	1.0	51.8%	34.9%	3.3	85.7%	16.2%
11	Learic Davis	F	Jr	6'6"	28-20	21.8	8.3	4.6	0.8	1.3	55.6%	32.8%	2.4	75.0%	21.9%
12	Jafeth Martinez	F	Jr	6'9"	31-20	18.3	4.6	5.1	0.2	0.7	67.6%	—	0.0	65.6%	12.6%
7	Coen Collier	C	Jr	7'1"	30-9	14.1	1.8	3.8	0.6	0.5	43.1%	22.2%	0.3	37.5%	10.3%
10	Breylin Garcia	F	Sr	6'6"	21-7	14.8	6.7	4.5	0.9	1.0	60.6%	—	0.0	55.6%	25.4%
6	Kanye Jones	G	Jr	6'5"	22-1	8.9	2.7	0.3	0.4	0.2	50.0%	26.3%	0.9	81.3%	16.7%
24	Chico Johnson	G	So	6'2"	10-0	8.2	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.3	47.7%	42.9%	0.7	50.0%	18.4%
8	Nic Book	F	So	6'8"	7-2	10.3	4.6	3.1	0.4	0.3	81.3%	—	0.0	100.0%	15.8%
21	CJ Rich	G	Jr	5'9"	4-1	11.0	3.3	1.0	1.3	0.8	78.6%	75.0%	1.0	66.7%	13.8%
5	TJ Lewis	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

SC Upstate

Against the spread

Season

13-16

Home

6-6

Road

7-9

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

13-15-1

Home

6-5-1

Road

7-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −2.4

Under 3 straightOver in 5 of 8 as an underdogOver in 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	N	L 64–65	−11.0	L−12.0	144.0	U129	99.1	100.7	64.6
Feb 28	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	H	W 71–61	−13.5	L−3.5	146.5	U132	101.0	86.8	70.3
Feb 26	RadfordAdjEM #245	A	L 59–71	+8.0	L−4.0	153.0	U130	87.6	105.4	67.4
Feb 21	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	H	W 76–74	+1.0	W+3.0	141.5	O150	118.0	114.9	64.4
Feb 19	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 64–68	+13.0	W+9.0	155.0	U132	95.3	101.2	67.2
Feb 14	LongwoodAdjEM #248	A	L 75–82 OT	+6.0	L−1.0	146.5	O157	89.6	98.0	83.7
Feb 12	High PointAdjEM #50	H	L 70–95	+14.0	L−11.0	154.5	O165	93.3	126.6	75.1
Feb 7	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	H	W 100–94 OT	+1.0	W+7.0	151.5	O194	129.9	122.1	77.0
Feb 4	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	A	L 67–76	+6.5	L−2.5	140.5	O143	99.2	112.5	67.6
Jan 29	LongwoodAdjEM #248	H	W 65–60	+1.5	W+6.5	147.5	U125	92.3	85.2	70.4

Coastal

Against the spread

Season

17-13-1

Home

6-5-1

Road

10-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover −0.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-13

Home

6-6

Road

11-6

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.1

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	N	L 72–96	−1.0	L−25.0	150.5	O168	105.7	140.9	68.1
Feb 27	James MadisonAdjEM #206	A	W 69–68	+6.0	W+7.0	142.0	U137	108.6	107.0	63.5
Feb 24	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	W 76–71	−1.0	W+4.0	141.0	O147	113.3	105.9	67.1
Feb 21	MarshallAdjEM #175	H	W 79–75	+2.5	W+6.5	153.5	O154	104.8	99.5	75.3
Feb 18	James MadisonAdjEM #206	H	L 65–67	+1.0	L−1.0	141.5	U132	99.1	102.2	65.6
Feb 12	LouisianaAdjEM #318	A	W 69–65	−1.0	W+3.0	132.0	O134	98.7	93.0	69.9
Feb 7	UMassAdjEM #184	H	W 94–91 3OT	+2.5	W+5.5	148.5	O185	112.2	108.6	83.8
Feb 4	Arkansas StAdjEM #132	H	L 66–70	+5.0	W+1.0	151.5	U136	94.3	100.0	70.0
Feb 1	UL MonroeAdjEM #351	A	W 83–79	−9.0	L−5.0	145.0	O162	124.4	118.4	66.7
Jan 29	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	A	L 48–53	+3.5	L−1.5	140.0	U101	80.0	88.3	60.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SC UpstateCoastal

Efficiency

102.8

103.8

109.0

107.3

68.5

68.1

—

Shooting

48.3%

47.9%

48.9%

46.1%

31.4%

33.5%

68.1%

73.1%

32.8%

32.3%

Ball control & glass

18.2%

15.2%

16.4%

12.3%

29.2%

26.9%

31.4%

27.6%

10.6%

7.9%

11.0%

7.6%

Style

35.6%

43.1%

46.2%

34.5%

14.5%

10.3%

46.0%

40.4%

35.4%

26.8%

Roster

2.98

3.10

6'4.5"

6'5.4"

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SC Upstate

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Coastal

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Dec 3	2025-26	Coastal 78 – 85 SC Upstate

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.