CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceThe Palestra, Philadelphia, PA

Howard

Efficiency #160

2025-26: 24-11 · 13-3 conf

Penn

Efficiency #162

2025-26: 18-12 · 11-5 conf

Mon, Nov 9 · 6:00 PM ET

72.2

win 37%

Projected

76.2

win 63%

No line posted yet.

Model: PENN −4.0 · total 148.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Penn 69.3, Howard 69.3 → 70.3 possessions

+4.3

Penn offense vs Howard defense

−2.1

Howard offense vs Penn defense

−2.0

Projected total

148.5

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Penn offense vs Howard defense

−2.1

Howard offense vs Penn defense

+2.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Penn by 4.0

4.0

Howard side ◂▸ Penn side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 148.4 against a projected 148.5, and the margin steps add to +3.9 against +4.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Penn.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Howard is the faster team (69.2, #131 of 365) and Penn the slower (68.7, #163). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.5

model

Projected team totals

72.2 / 76.2

Howard / Penn

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.3#100

Howard

69.3#95

Penn

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantagePenn

Where Penn struggles: shooting

Penn shoots an effective 50.4% (#223); Howard allows 48.7% (#53). Expect about 49.5%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageHoward

Where Howard scores: the offensive glass

Howard rebounds 35.8% of its own misses (#28); Penn lets opponents grab 31.3% of their own misses (#220). Expect about 34.6%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversHoward

Howard turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Howard's offense.

TurnoversPenn

Penn turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Penn's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Penn, Howard's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Howard at about 35.8% of its shots from three, Penn about 32.9%.

ClashPenn

Style match: 3-point volume

Penn rarely shoots threes (35.4% of its shots); Howard runs teams off the line (34.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.9% — both habits push the same way.

Howard has the ball

OffensePenn allowsvs D1 avg

50.9% #198

52.1% #218

+0.3 pt/100

19.3% #331

17.3% #131

-2.2 pt/100

35.8% #28

31.3% #220

+2.6 pt/100

43.4% #17

27.5% #28

-0.0 pt/100

74.0% #130

—

+0.1 pt/100

Howard net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100

Penn has the ball

OffenseHoward allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #223

48.7% #53

-2.6 pt/100

15.3% #89

20.7% #13

-2.1 pt/100

30.0% #200

31.4% #223

+0.1 pt/100

33.9% #212

38.4% #270

+0.2 pt/100

69.4% #285

—

-0.3 pt/100

Penn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Howardoffense vsPenndefense

Share of shots by zone

Howard shoots

47.9

4.2

12.8

35.0

Penn allows

40.5

6.0

14.1

39.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	52.7%#345	61.3%#278	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.8%#334	46.0%#320	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.7%#160	38.0%#160	38.0%
Three	35.8%#68	32.2%#73	33.7%

Pennoffense vsHowarddefense

Share of shots by zone

Penn shoots

36.7

5.6

22.4

35.4

Howard allows

42.9

7.2

15.7

34.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#331	56.1%#88	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.2%#286	35.8%#85	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.7%#196	31.5%#13	38.0%
Three	38.3%#13	31.4%#41	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Howard

+3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#39 of 365

Off reb %

35.8%

#28

Def reb %

68.6%

#223

Turnover %

19.3%

#331

Forced TO %

20.7%

#13

FT rate

43.4%

#17

FT allowed

38.4%

#270

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−1.7

Forcing turnovers+2.8

Foul shots drawn+2.2

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Penn

+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#63 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#200

Def reb %

68.7%

#220

Turnover %

15.3%

#89

Forced TO %

17.3%

#131

FT rate

33.9%

#212

FT allowed

27.5%

#28

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers+0.4

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Howard has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.9 (#39 of 365) to Penn’s +2.7 (#63).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Howard2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Cam Gillus	G	Jr	5'11"	35-35	32.7	10.8	4.3	4.7	2.3	53.7%	39.5%	3.5	75.6%	20.3%
11	Ose Okojie	G	Sr	6'5"	35-32	25.9	10.7	3.8	1.7	1.2	58.6%	42.9%	1.0	62.0%	22.5%
4	Alex Cotton	G	Jr	6'5"	32-24	26.9	8.5	3.1	1.2	0.8	50.8%	37.1%	6.1	67.6%	18.8%
12	Cedric Taylor III	G	Jr	6'7"	24-23	32.4	17.2	6.7	3.1	2.8	50.0%	29.8%	3.9	81.2%	32.2%
32	Travelle Bryson	F	So	6'5"	31-10	18.7	8.8	3.4	0.9	0.7	50.9%	24.6%	2.2	81.6%	27.3%
13	Danas Kazakevicius	C	Fr	6'10"	34-14	14.5	3.7	2.4	1.0	1.0	48.0%	25.0%	0.1	79.5%	17.7%
0	Isaiah Brown	G	So	6'1"	33-0	10.2	2.6	1.1	1.4	1.0	41.1%	43.8%	0.5	76.6%	20.2%
23	Ed Holland III	G	Sr	6'6"	25-2	9.2	1.8	1.9	0.4	0.4	45.3%	25.0%	0.2	68.0%	13.3%
21	Calvin Robins Jr.	F	So	6'5"	32-0	6.0	1.5	1.3	0.1	0.4	63.6%	—	0.0	40.0%	15.6%
10	Jeremiah Johnson	G	Fr	6'3"	20-0	7.3	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	34.7%	26.3%	0.9	42.9%	16.0%
3	BJ Powell	G	Fr	6'0"	21-0	4.3	1.7	0.2	0.3	0.3	48.3%	40.0%	0.2	53.8%	25.3%
7	Julian Johnson	F	Fr	6'9"	14-0	4.0	1.3	0.7	0.1	0.2	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	20.2%
1	Stefan Isailovic	F	Fr	6'8"	12-0	2.8	0.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	40.0%	0.0%	0.2	62.5%	17.4%
9	River Smith	G	Fr	5'10"	11-0	2.2	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.5	100.0%	—	0.0	25.0%	18.1%
5	Shane Frazier	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.1	50.0%	33.3%	0.3	50.0%	22.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Penn2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	TJ Power	F	Jr	6'9"	30-30	35.1	16.4	7.6	2.4	2.1	55.3%	43.2%	6.1	64.9%	27.5%
7	Michael Zanoni	F	Sr	6'5"	30-30	28.8	11.8	2.0	0.7	0.5	53.1%	38.7%	4.7	92.0%	22.1%
0	AJ Levine	G	So	6'0"	30-30	24.3	8.2	3.2	4.0	2.0	46.2%	27.5%	2.3	63.4%	24.7%
25	Augustus Gerhart	F	Jr	6'9"	30-30	19.8	5.5	4.7	1.0	0.9	62.4%	0.0%	0.0	63.6%	15.3%
30	Lucas Lueth	F	So	6'7"	28-1	16.7	3.3	3.0	0.6	0.5	43.5%	22.6%	1.1	37.9%	15.0%
5	Cam Thrower	G	Sr	6'3"	27-6	17.0	6.0	1.6	1.3	1.1	47.8%	41.9%	2.3	86.8%	23.1%
13	Dalton Scantlebury	C	Fr	6'9"	29-0	15.5	5.9	3.9	0.6	0.8	51.2%	—	0.0	62.3%	23.2%
4	Jay Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	27-0	13.7	3.9	2.3	1.2	0.7	48.0%	38.9%	0.7	58.9%	18.8%
35	Niklas Polonowski	F	Jr	6'6"	23-0	6.0	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.1	40.3%	31.8%	1.0	63.6%	15.6%
2	Dylan Williams	G	Sr	5'11"	7-0	8.7	2.1	1.0	1.6	1.0	40.6%	25.0%	0.6	33.3%	24.9%
11	Alex Massung	G	So	6'4"	10-0	5.5	1.7	0.6	0.7	0.5	35.7%	—	0.0	70.0%	24.2%
33	Michelangelo Oberti	C	So	6'10"	12-0	4.4	1.8	1.2	0.1	0.3	69.2%	—	0.0	80.0%	20.8%
3	Johnnie Walter	F	Sr	6'10"	5-0	5.2	1.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.6	—	11.2%
21	Payton Kamin	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	3.5	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	18.4%
40	William Kruse	F	Fr	6'11"	3-0	4.0	1.7	2.0	0.0	0.0	125.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	8.7%
15	Bradyn Foster	F	So	6'8"	1-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
34	Chris Ubochi	C	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Ryan Altman	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Howard2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Cam Gillus	G	Jr	5'11"	35-35	32.7	10.8	4.3	4.7	2.3	53.7%	39.5%	3.5	75.6%	20.3%
11	Ose Okojie	G	Sr	6'5"	35-32	25.9	10.7	3.8	1.7	1.2	58.6%	42.9%	1.0	62.0%	22.5%
4	Alex Cotton	G	Jr	6'5"	32-24	26.9	8.5	3.1	1.2	0.8	50.8%	37.1%	6.1	67.6%	18.8%
12	Cedric Taylor III	G	Jr	6'7"	24-23	32.4	17.2	6.7	3.1	2.8	50.0%	29.8%	3.9	81.2%	32.2%
32	Travelle Bryson	F	So	6'5"	31-10	18.7	8.8	3.4	0.9	0.7	50.9%	24.6%	2.2	81.6%	27.3%
13	Danas Kazakevicius	C	Fr	6'10"	34-14	14.5	3.7	2.4	1.0	1.0	48.0%	25.0%	0.1	79.5%	17.7%
0	Isaiah Brown	G	So	6'1"	33-0	10.2	2.6	1.1	1.4	1.0	41.1%	43.8%	0.5	76.6%	20.2%
23	Ed Holland III	G	Sr	6'6"	25-2	9.2	1.8	1.9	0.4	0.4	45.3%	25.0%	0.2	68.0%	13.3%
21	Calvin Robins Jr.	F	So	6'5"	32-0	6.0	1.5	1.3	0.1	0.4	63.6%	—	0.0	40.0%	15.6%
10	Jeremiah Johnson	G	Fr	6'3"	20-0	7.3	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	34.7%	26.3%	0.9	42.9%	16.0%
3	BJ Powell	G	Fr	6'0"	21-0	4.3	1.7	0.2	0.3	0.3	48.3%	40.0%	0.2	53.8%	25.3%
7	Julian Johnson	F	Fr	6'9"	14-0	4.0	1.3	0.7	0.1	0.2	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	20.2%
1	Stefan Isailovic	F	Fr	6'8"	12-0	2.8	0.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	40.0%	0.0%	0.2	62.5%	17.4%
9	River Smith	G	Fr	5'10"	11-0	2.2	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.5	100.0%	—	0.0	25.0%	18.1%
5	Shane Frazier	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.1	50.0%	33.3%	0.3	50.0%	22.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Howard

Against the spread

Season

23-8

Home

8-3

Road

9-4

Last 10

9-1

avg cover +8.6

Covered 2 straightCovered 7 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 6 of 7 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-17

Home

6-5

Road

5-8

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +9.8

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 7 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 80–101	+31.0	W+10.0	151.5	O181	112.2	141.7	71.3
Mar 17	#16UMBCAdjEM #147	N	W 86–83	+1.0	W+4.0	142.5	O169	123.5	119.2	69.6
Mar 14	NC CentralAdjEM #346	N	W 70–63	−11.5	L−4.5	143.5	U133	112.4	101.2	62.3
Mar 13	SC StateAdjEM #357	N	W 78–61	−15.5	W+1.5	146.0	U139	105.9	82.8	73.6
Mar 5	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	W 84–76	−6.5	W+1.5	148.5	O160	121.4	109.8	69.2
Mar 2	Coppin StAdjEM #364	H	W 90–70	−18.5	W+1.5	140.0	O160	127.2	98.9	70.8
Feb 28	Morgan StAdjEM #349	A	W 84–59	−9.5	W+15.5	158.0	U143	116.6	81.9	72.0
Feb 21	NC CentralAdjEM #346	H	W 100–67	−12.5	W+20.5	143.0	O167	140.3	94.0	71.3
Feb 16	Delaware StAdjEM #358	A	W 91–59	−11.0	W+21.0	130.5	O150	126.6	82.1	71.9
Feb 14	MD EasternAdjEM #345	H	W 79–53	−11.0	W+15.0	133.0	U132	122.8	82.4	64.3

Penn

Against the spread

Season

20-9

Home

8-5

Road

10-3

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +5.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

8-21

Home

1-12

Road

5-8

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −3.2

Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	L 70–105	+25.5	L−9.5	151.0	O175	103.0	154.5	68.0
Mar 15	YaleAdjEM #57	N	W 88–84 OT	+9.5	W+13.5	144.0	O172	121.7	116.1	72.3
Mar 14	HarvardAdjEM #133	N	W 62–60 OT	+3.5	W+5.5	139.0	U122	88.7	85.9	69.9
Mar 6	BrownAdjEM #275	A	W 82–61	+1.0	W+22.0	147.0	U143	114.2	84.9	71.8
Feb 28	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	W 64–61	+1.0	W+4.0	139.5	U125	89.5	85.3	71.5
Feb 27	DartmouthAdjEM #254	H	W 80–71	−6.5	W+2.5	153.5	U151	115.6	102.6	69.2
Feb 21	YaleAdjEM #57	A	L 70–74	+8.5	W+4.5	149.5	U144	105.1	111.1	66.6
Feb 14	CornellAdjEM #135	H	W 82–76	+3.0	W+9.0	170.0	U158	107.6	99.7	76.2
Feb 13	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	H	W 76–67	−2.0	W+7.0	148.0	U143	108.0	95.2	70.4
Feb 7	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 61–60	−3.5	L−2.5	145.0	U121	104.5	102.8	58.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

HowardPenn

Efficiency

106.9

107.9

106.1

107.2

69.3

—

Shooting

50.9%

50.4%

49.4%

46.5%

35.8%

38.3%

74.0%

69.4%

43.4%

33.9%

Ball control & glass

19.3%

15.3%

20.7%

17.3%

35.8%

30.0%

31.4%

31.3%

8.4%

8.5%

11.2%

9.3%

Style

34.7%

35.4%

41.5%

39.7%

16.4%

11.0%

60.3%

52.3%

26.1%

31.8%

Roster

2.71

2.70

6'4.2"

6'5.9"

83.9%

88.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Howard

Returning minutes: 83.9%Returning production: 78.0%

Lost

Bryce Harris 32.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Penn

Returning minutes: 88.4%Returning production: 86.3%

Lost

Ethan Roberts 23.4 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame

Added

Ryan Altman no D1 minutes last season
Chris Ubochi no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.