CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceSECU Arena, Towson, MD
Long Island
Efficiency #195
2025-26: 24-11 · 18-3 conf
@
Towson
Efficiency #149
2025-26: 19-15 · 11-10 conf
Mon, Nov 9 · TBD
66.2
win 32%
Projected
71.5
win 68%
No line posted yet.
Model: TOW −5.3 · total 137.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Towson 65.7, Long Island 68.6 → 66.0 possessions
−5.0
Towson offense vs Long Island defense
−2.0
Long Island offense vs Towson defense
−3.5
Projected total
137.8
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Towson offense vs Long Island defense
−2.0
Long Island offense vs Towson defense
+3.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Towson by 5.3
5.3
Long Island side ◂▸ Towson side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 137.7 against a projected 137.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Towson.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Long Island is the faster team (68.2, #190 of 365) and Towson the slower (63.8, #358). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
137.8
model
Projected team totals
66.2 / 71.5
Long Island / Towson
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#152
Long Island
65.7#350
Towson

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageTowson
Where Towson struggles: shooting
Towson shoots an effective 46.5% (#345); Long Island allows 50.0% (#102). Expect about 47.9%, 3.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.8 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Towson averages 63.8 possessions per 40, Long Island 68.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassTowson
Towson owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.6% is worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions for Towson's offense.
ClashTowson
Style match: 3-point volume
Towson rarely shoots threes (34.9% of its shots); Long Island runs teams off the line (32.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.6% — both habits push the same way.
ClashTowson
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
Towson (#33 in shot-blocking exposure) against Long Island (#16 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.7%. Historically Long Island's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Towson, Towson's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Long Island at about 32.6% of its shots from three, Towson about 31.6%.
Long Island has the ball
OffenseTowson allowsvs D1 avg
52.8% #112
48.5% #49
-0.8 pt/100
18.9% #318
15.1% #274
-0.2 pt/100
33.9% #70
29.1% #117
+1.1 pt/100
34.0% #207
29.3% #49
-0.5 pt/100
66.7% #346
—
-0.5 pt/100
Long Island net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.8 pts/100
Towson has the ball
OffenseLong Island allowsvs D1 avg
46.5% #345
50.0% #102
-4.8 pt/100
15.9% #129
18.8% #58
-0.9 pt/100
36.0% #24
33.0% #299
+3.1 pt/100
30.4% #299
34.7% #171
-0.3 pt/100
68.9% #300
—
-0.3 pt/100
Towson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Long Islandoffense vsTowsondefense
Share of shots by zone
Long Island shoots
Towson allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.7%#13356.4%#9658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.8%#22442.1%#23239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.7%#16237.6%#14838.0%
Three35.8%#6730.9%#3333.7%
Towsonoffense vsLong Islanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Towson shoots
Long Island allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.9%#30055.3%#7058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.4%#16649.1%#35039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.7%#15940.4%#25638.0%
Three29.4%#34932.2%#7233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Long Island
+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#172 of 365
Off reb %
33.9%
#70
Def reb %
67.0%
#299
Turnover %
18.9%
#318
Forced TO %
18.8%
#58
FT rate
34.0%
#207
FT allowed
34.7%
#171
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding−0.8
Ball security−1.5
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.1
Towson
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#90 of 365
Off reb %
36.0%
#24
Def reb %
70.9%
#117
Turnover %
15.9%
#129
Forced TO %
15.1%
#274
FT rate
30.4%
#299
FT allowed
29.3%
#49
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.8
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed+1.5

Towson has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#90 of 365) to Long Island’s +0.2 (#172).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Long Island2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Long Island's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Greg GordonGSr6'5"35-3534.114.05.52.91.957.2%20.7%0.840.7%25.1%
33Jamal FullerGSr6'5"34-3333.616.25.52.62.159.6%43.0%3.877.1%26.4%
0Malachi DavisGSr6'4"35-3430.914.03.53.42.846.1%31.4%4.062.1%32.9%
1Jomo GoingsGJr6'5"35-3430.89.84.52.22.246.5%36.3%2.984.2%21.9%
22Shadrak LasuFSo6'8"33-3322.95.25.40.40.856.9%42.9%0.663.8%13.6%
6Mason Porter-BrownFJr6'6"35-620.07.83.20.61.057.1%40.4%2.771.3%22.2%
3Faheim MeranGJr6'6"18-014.63.11.11.10.951.0%36.7%1.758.3%15.4%
15Caleb JohnsonFSr6'7"23-011.02.52.10.50.352.3%0.0%0.575.0%13.9%
4Tre'shawn SheppardGSo6'6"26-09.72.12.70.30.454.5%33.3%0.253.8%14.0%
10A.J. Neal Jr.GSr6'2"15-07.71.90.40.70.652.2%50.0%0.566.7%17.2%
7Isaiah MirandaFJr7'1"13-08.13.71.50.20.642.6%15.4%1.066.7%31.3%
5Max Ndlovu-FraserGFr6'5"7-07.90.70.60.60.635.7%33.3%0.4—11.7%
34Xinyi LiFJr6'9"8-03.60.60.80.00.535.7%33.3%0.4—23.4%
14Eddie MunyakGSo6'1"2-01.51.50.50.00.0150.0%100.0%0.5—17.8%
24Gavin PendergastGSo6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Long IslandTowson
Efficiency
106.8
106.1
107.8
104.9
68.6
65.7
—
—
Shooting
52.8%
46.5%
52.4%
47.8%
35.8%
29.4%
66.7%
68.9%
34.0%
30.4%
Ball control & glass
18.9%
15.9%
18.8%
15.1%
33.9%
36.0%
33.0%
29.1%
10.4%
7.4%
8.6%
7.6%
Style
29.3%
34.9%
51.9%
43.4%
19.4%
13.0%
50.2%
38.9%
24.1%
35.0%
Roster
3.38
2.98
6'5.5"
6'6.2"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Long Island
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Long Island's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Towson
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Towson's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.