CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceWatsco Center, Coral Gables, FL

North Florida

Efficiency #338

2025-26: 7-25 · 5-14 conf

Miami

Efficiency #30

2025-26: 26-9 · 14-6 conf

Mon, Nov 9 · TBD

69.9

win 3%

Projected

91.0

win 97%

No line posted yet.

Model: MIA −21.1 · total 161.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Miami 68.7, North Florida 70.4 → 70.8 possessions

+5.4

Miami offense vs North Florida defense

+12.2

North Florida offense vs Miami defense

−4.8

Projected total

161.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Miami offense vs North Florida defense

+12.2

North Florida offense vs Miami defense

+4.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Miami by 21.1

21.1

North Florida side ◂▸ Miami side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Miami.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, North Florida is the faster team (71.9, #26 of 365) and Miami the slower (69.2, #137). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

161.0

model

Projected team totals

69.9 / 91.0

North Florida / Miami

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.4#29

North Florida

68.7#145

Miami

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMiami

Where Miami scores: shooting

Miami shoots an effective 55.3% (#32); North Florida allows 56.3% (#349). Expect about 56.2%, 4.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.0 points per 100 possessions.

GlassMiami

Miami owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 38.7% is worth roughly +5.0 points per 100 possessions for Miami's offense.

TurnoversMiami

Miami protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 13.8% is worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions for Miami's offense.

AdvantageNorth Florida

Where North Florida struggles: the offensive glass

North Florida rebounds 25.2% of its own misses (#335); Miami lets opponents grab 25.9% of their own misses (#19). Expect about 24.6%, 5.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Miami averages 69.2 possessions per 40, North Florida 71.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversNorth Florida

North Florida turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against North Florida's offense.

North Florida has the ball

OffenseMiami allowsvs D1 avg

52.9% #106

51.7% #198

+1.7 pt/100

17.9% #264

18.2% #88

-1.9 pt/100

25.2% #335

25.9% #19

-3.6 pt/100

28.8% #333

29.5% #50

-0.8 pt/100

77.8% #20

—

+0.5 pt/100

North Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.0 pts/100

Miami has the ball

OffenseNorth Florida allowsvs D1 avg

55.3% #32

56.3% #349

+7.0 pt/100

16.2% #150

12.7% #362

+3.6 pt/100

37.2% #14

37.6% #361

+5.0 pt/100

37.1% #125

31.4% #91

-0.1 pt/100

68.3% #320

—

-0.4 pt/100

Miami net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +15.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

North Floridaoffense vsMiamidefense

Share of shots by zone

North Florida shoots

35.7

3.2

9.7

51.4

Miami allows

33.7

7.8

17.9

40.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.2%#223	59.8%#219	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.8%#344	44.3%#277	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	46.5%#6	37.3%#138	38.0%
Three	35.0%#117	35.8%#296	33.7%

Miamioffense vsNorth Floridadefense

Share of shots by zone

Miami shoots

46.5

7.6

14.7

31.1

North Florida allows

44.5

4.9

12.1

38.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.2%#34	62.9%#321	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.6%#275	47.1%#334	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#54	45.1%#350	38.0%
Three	34.9%#127	35.1%#253	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

North Florida

−8.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#362 of 365

Off reb %

25.2%

#335

Def reb %

62.4%

#361

Turnover %

17.9%

#264

Forced TO %

12.7%

#362

FT rate

28.8%

#333

FT allowed

31.4%

#91

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−2.3

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−2.7

Foul shots drawn−1.6

Foul shots allowed+1.0

Miami

+7.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#7 of 365

Off reb %

37.2%

#14

Def reb %

74.1%

#19

Turnover %

16.2%

#150

Forced TO %

18.2%

#88

FT rate

37.1%

#125

FT allowed

29.5%

#50

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.2

Defensive rebounding+1.5

Ball security+0.4

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn+0.5

Foul shots allowed+1.5

Miami has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.2 (#7 of 365) to North Florida’s −8.0 (#362).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

North Florida2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Kamrin Oriol	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	35.7	20.9	3.0	4.3	3.2	58.4%	40.2%	7.6	88.7%	30.8%
10	Kent Jackson	G	So	6'2"	32-32	31.9	14.8	3.3	2.2	1.9	51.2%	34.8%	9.5	92.5%	27.0%
1	BJ Plummer	F	Fr	6'6"	32-17	26.9	7.7	3.4	1.2	1.2	51.6%	32.8%	4.0	65.6%	17.3%
2	Mason Lee	F	So	6'7"	32-30	26.1	8.0	5.6	2.0	1.8	64.6%	37.5%	2.8	69.2%	16.7%
21	Dalton Gayman	F	Sr	6'7"	32-13	23.6	10.3	5.6	1.5	1.5	52.4%	36.5%	2.0	76.1%	24.5%
24	Nestor Dyachok	F	Sr	6'9"	32-18	15.2	4.3	2.3	1.0	0.6	49.5%	8.0%	0.8	68.0%	17.0%
4	Devin Hines	G	Sr	6'4"	27-15	17.1	5.5	2.3	0.9	0.9	45.4%	24.4%	1.7	71.4%	20.8%
5	Dante Oliver	G	So	6'5"	31-0	12.8	2.5	1.4	0.4	0.2	51.6%	38.9%	1.2	60.0%	11.1%
22	Trey Cady	F	Fr	6'8"	29-3	11.9	6.1	2.2	0.3	0.7	48.9%	33.9%	1.9	74.2%	28.9%
3	Taylor Thompson	G	Fr	5'11"	19-0	3.9	0.6	0.2	0.7	0.4	38.5%	33.3%	0.3	66.7%	16.0%
25	Gabe Jacobs	G	Fr	6'1"	9-0	4.6	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.4	57.7%	30.0%	1.1	100.0%	22.3%
13	Alex Vargo	G	Sr	6'5"	1-0	8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
12	Arden Begaj	F	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Mason Watkins	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Miami2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Brent Blandat Saint Peter's	G	Sr	6'3"	29-29	33.1	13.9	5.0	1.5	1.0	51.6%	36.9%	7.4	78.3%	24.7%
7	Shelton Henderson	F	So	6'6"	35-35	31.3	13.8	4.9	2.1	1.8	58.7%	25.5%	1.5	57.6%	25.1%
0	DeSean Goodeat Robert Morris	F	Jr	6'8"	33-32	31.0	15.2	8.7	1.4	1.4	68.9%	57.1%	1.9	76.3%	23.8%
55	Acaden Lewisat Villanova	G	So	6'2"	33-33	30.5	12.2	3.0	5.3	2.2	49.6%	27.0%	3.0	58.3%	27.6%
5	Malik Reneau	F	Sr	6'9"	35-35	29.0	18.9	6.5	2.1	2.8	57.0%	34.7%	2.1	78.8%	36.2%
3	Nick Dornat Indiana	G	Sr	6'7"	30-12	23.2	8.1	2.3	0.3	0.7	57.3%	38.0%	5.3	87.0%	19.5%
2	Somto Cyrilat Georgia	C	Jr	6'11"	33-32	21.1	9.3	5.4	0.6	1.1	75.9%	—	0.0	57.8%	19.5%
35	Dante Allen	G	So	6'4"	30-18	23.8	6.6	2.8	2.2	1.0	50.6%	32.1%	2.6	58.3%	18.0%
6	Robert Miller IIIat LSU	F	Jr	6'10"	31-2	19.4	6.1	3.9	0.7	1.2	65.7%	0.0%	0.0	69.9%	17.1%
12	Quin Bergerat Bucknell	G	Sr	6'2"	30-8	16.6	3.1	1.4	0.7	0.9	44.2%	30.6%	2.4	71.4%	15.5%
13	L.J. Casonat Michigan	G	Jr	6'2"	28-0	18.6	8.4	1.9	2.4	1.7	60.6%	40.2%	2.9	70.9%	24.8%
4	Marcus Allen	F	Jr	6'7"	8-0	18.9	5.3	3.1	1.6	0.3	50.0%	38.5%	1.6	69.2%	14.9%
11	Caleb Gaskins	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Christopher Birden Jr.	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Egor Ryzhov	C	Sr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Quin Berger (from Bucknell), Brent Bland (from Saint Peter's), L.J. Cason (from Michigan), Nick Dorn (from Indiana), DeSean Goode (from Robert Morris), Acaden Lewis (from Villanova), Robert Miller III (from LSU), Somto Cyril (from Georgia)

North Florida2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Kamrin Oriol	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	35.7	20.9	3.0	4.3	3.2	58.4%	40.2%	7.6	88.7%	30.8%
10	Kent Jackson	G	So	6'2"	32-32	31.9	14.8	3.3	2.2	1.9	51.2%	34.8%	9.5	92.5%	27.0%
1	BJ Plummer	F	Fr	6'6"	32-17	26.9	7.7	3.4	1.2	1.2	51.6%	32.8%	4.0	65.6%	17.3%
2	Mason Lee	F	So	6'7"	32-30	26.1	8.0	5.6	2.0	1.8	64.6%	37.5%	2.8	69.2%	16.7%
21	Dalton Gayman	F	Sr	6'7"	32-13	23.6	10.3	5.6	1.5	1.5	52.4%	36.5%	2.0	76.1%	24.5%
24	Nestor Dyachok	F	Sr	6'9"	32-18	15.2	4.3	2.3	1.0	0.6	49.5%	8.0%	0.8	68.0%	17.0%
4	Devin Hines	G	Sr	6'4"	27-15	17.1	5.5	2.3	0.9	0.9	45.4%	24.4%	1.7	71.4%	20.8%
5	Dante Oliver	G	So	6'5"	31-0	12.8	2.5	1.4	0.4	0.2	51.6%	38.9%	1.2	60.0%	11.1%
22	Trey Cady	F	Fr	6'8"	29-3	11.9	6.1	2.2	0.3	0.7	48.9%	33.9%	1.9	74.2%	28.9%
3	Taylor Thompson	G	Fr	5'11"	19-0	3.9	0.6	0.2	0.7	0.4	38.5%	33.3%	0.3	66.7%	16.0%
25	Gabe Jacobs	G	Fr	6'1"	9-0	4.6	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.4	57.7%	30.0%	1.1	100.0%	22.3%
13	Alex Vargo	G	Sr	6'5"	1-0	8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
12	Arden Begaj	F	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Mason Watkins	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

North Florida

Against the spread

Season

18-12

Home

7-4

Road

9-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.3

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 6 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-14-1

Home

4-7

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.3

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	West GeorgiaAdjEM #304	N	L 85–93	+4.0	L−4.0	159.0	O178	113.1	123.7	75.2
Feb 28	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	H	L 61–85	+1.5	L−22.5	150.0	U146	88.3	123.1	69.1
Feb 26	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 76–70	+7.0	W+13.0	161.0	U146	109.8	101.2	69.2
Feb 21	StetsonAdjEM #322	A	L 71–76	+1.5	L−3.5	160.5	U147	111.1	118.9	63.9
Feb 19	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	H	L 76–77	+11.0	W+10.0	165.5	U153	97.5	98.7	78.0
Feb 14	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	A	L 56–63	+7.5	W+0.5	153.0	U119	96.1	108.2	58.3
Feb 11	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 81–90	+12.5	W+3.5	163.5	O171	111.2	123.6	72.8
Feb 7	QueensAdjEM #191	A	L 72–91	+15.5	L−3.5	179.5	U163	104.3	131.9	69.0
Feb 5	West GeorgiaAdjEM #304	A	W 81–73	+6.5	W+14.5	166.0	U154	109.0	98.2	74.3
Jan 31	LipscombAdjEM #179	H	L 94–100	+11.0	W+5.0	166.5	O194	129.0	137.2	72.9

Miami

Against the spread

Season

19-15-1

Home

8-9-1

Road

8-2

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

22-13

Home

13-5

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.1

Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#2PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 69–79	+8.0	L−2.0	146.5	O148	105.2	120.4	65.6
Mar 20	#10MissouriAdjEM #67	N	W 80–66	−1.0	W+13.0	145.5	O146	119.1	98.3	67.2
Mar 13	#10VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	L 62–84	+3.5	L−18.5	145.0	O146	99.3	134.6	62.4
Mar 12	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	W 78–73	+1.5	W+6.5	153.5	U151	114.0	106.7	68.4
Mar 7	LouisvilleAdjEM #14	H	L 89–92	−1.5	L−4.5	155.5	O181	138.1	142.7	64.5
Mar 4	SMUAdjEM #44	A	W 77–69	+1.5	W+9.5	156.5	U146	111.0	99.4	69.4
Feb 28	Boston CollegeAdjEM #187	H	W 76–54	−16.0	W+6.0	144.5	U130	117.6	83.6	64.6
Feb 24	Florida StAdjEM #74	A	W 83–73	−2.0	W+8.0	153.5	O156	117.2	103.1	70.8
Feb 21	#14VirginiaAdjEM #15	A	L 83–86	+7.5	W+4.5	146.5	O169	128.1	132.7	64.8
Feb 17	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	H	W 67–66	−8.5	L−7.5	148.0	U133	106.7	105.1	62.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

North FloridaMiami

Efficiency

106.9

115.9

118.3

103.2

70.4

68.7

—

Shooting

52.9%

55.3%

53.4%

56.7%

35.0%

34.9%

77.8%

68.3%

28.8%

37.1%

Ball control & glass

17.9%

16.2%

12.7%

18.2%

25.2%

37.2%

37.6%

25.9%

11.2%

9.7%

12.6%

10.2%

Style

51.7%

31.9%

36.0%

51.9%

11.3%

14.2%

50.6%

54.4%

30.3%

25.0%

Roster

2.68

3.04

6'5.1"

6'5.9"

—

42.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

North Florida

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Miami

Returning minutes: 42.5%Returning production: 45.1%

Lost

Tre Donaldson 34.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ernest Udeh Jr. 26.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tru Washington 24.3 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Timotej Malovec 14.1 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Noam Dovrat 7.3 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Salih Altuntas 7.1 mpg, 1.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Brent Bland from Saint Peter's · 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
DeSean Goode from Robert Morris · 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg last season
Acaden Lewis from Villanova · 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg last season
Nick Dorn from Indiana · 21.8 mpg, 7.6 ppg last season
Somto Cyril from Georgia · 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
Robert Miller III from LSU · 18.8 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season

Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Dec 21	2025-26	North Florida 67 – 105 Miami

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.