CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceSchottenstein Center, Columbus, OH
Marshall
Efficiency #175
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
@
Ohio State
Efficiency #31
2025-26: 21-13 · 13-9 conf
Mon, Nov 9 · TBD
72.2
win 14%
Projected
84.7
win 86%
No line posted yet.
Model: OSU −12.5 · total 156.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Ohio State 67.5, Marshall 69.7 → 68.8 possessions
+1.1
Ohio State offense vs Marshall defense
+8.0
Marshall offense vs Ohio State defense
−0.5
Projected total
156.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Ohio State offense vs Marshall defense
+8.0
Marshall offense vs Ohio State defense
+0.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Ohio State by 12.5
12.5
Marshall side ◂▸ Ohio State side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 156.8 against a projected 156.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Ohio State.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marshall is the faster team (70.7, #66 of 365) and Ohio State the slower (66.4, #278). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
156.9
model
Projected team totals
72.2 / 84.7
Marshall / Ohio State
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.7#71
Marshall
67.5#253
Ohio State
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageOhio State
Where Ohio State scores: shooting
Ohio State shoots an effective 56.2% (#19); Marshall allows 50.3% (#118). Expect about 53.7%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseMarshall
Marshall's shot-blocking
Marshall ranks #23 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of Ohio State's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageMarshall
Where Marshall scores: shooting
Marshall shoots an effective 54.8% (#42); Ohio State allows 50.2% (#114). Expect about 52.8%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Marshall) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Marshall at about 43.8% of its shots from three, Ohio State about 40.0%.
ClashMarshall
Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting
Marshall (#34 in 3-point shooting) against Ohio State (#57 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.2%. Historically Marshall's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).
Marshall has the ball
OffenseOhio State allowsvs D1 avg
54.8% #42
50.2% #114
+2.2 pt/100
16.6% #171
15.6% #242
+1.0 pt/100
31.9% #127
30.0% #160
+0.5 pt/100
29.2% #328
34.7% #170
-0.4 pt/100
73.0% #168
—
+0.1 pt/100
Marshall net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.4 pts/100
Ohio State has the ball
OffenseMarshall allowsvs D1 avg
56.2% #19
50.3% #118
+3.4 pt/100
15.3% #91
16.3% #201
+1.4 pt/100
30.4% #185
33.8% #316
+1.0 pt/100
37.2% #122
41.1% #313
+0.6 pt/100
77.7% #21
—
+0.5 pt/100
Ohio State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMarshalloffense vsOhio Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Marshall shoots
31.0
3.9
21.0
44.1
Ohio State allows
31.5
8.2
20.1
40.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.8%#8 | 59.8%#220 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.8%#248 | 38.4%#143 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.9%#229 | 42.7%#328 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.8%#34 | 31.9%#57 | 33.7% |
Ohio Stateoffense vsMarshalldefense
Share of shots by zone
Ohio State shoots
31.3
9.5
18.8
40.4
Marshall allows
36.7
5.4
18.8
39.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.1%#14 | 60.2%#241 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.3%#12 | 35.8%#87 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 47.6%#4 | 34.0%#50 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.7%#72 | 33.6%#162 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMarshall
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#322 of 365
Off reb %
31.9%
#127
Def reb %
66.2%
#316
Turnover %
16.6%
#171
Forced TO %
16.3%
#201
FT rate
29.2%
#328
FT allowed
41.1%
#313
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security+0.1
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−1.5
Ohio State
+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#132 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#185
Def reb %
70.0%
#160
Turnover %
15.3%
#91
Forced TO %
15.6%
#242
FT rate
37.2%
#122
FT allowed
34.7%
#170
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.1
Ohio State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.2 (#132 of 365) to Marshall’s −3.7 (#322).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Marshall2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | Jalen Speer | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-32 | 32.5 | 15.7 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 48.7% | 36.4% | 7.8 | 83.0% | 30.4% | |
| 5 | Noah Otshudi | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-31 | 31.5 | 14.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 48.9% | 30.0% | 2.3 | 84.5% | 29.0% | |
| 3 | Wilson Dubinsky | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-0 | 18.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 49.6% | 37.1% | 3.3 | 77.4% | 15.6% | |
| 15 | Caleb Hollenbeck | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-27 | 17.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 58.3% | 39.7% | 4.3 | 41.7% | 17.5% | |
| 6 | Landen Joseph | G | Fr | 6'2" | 31-6 | 17.8 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 59.2% | 41.3% | 3.0 | 70.8% | 24.5% | |
| 13 | Matt Van Komen | C | Sr | 7'4" | 22-20 | 20.9 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 73.7% | — | 0.0 | 76.2% | 18.7% | |
| 11 | Erich Harding | F | So | 6'10" | 32-12 | 14.3 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 62.8% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 47.2% | 15.5% | |
| 9 | Shamarrie Hugie | G | Jr | 6'6" | 26-1 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 56.8% | 41.4% | 1.1 | 64.7% | 20.4% | |
| 4 | Drew Fuquay | F | Jr | 6'8" | 28-0 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 64.3% | 41.7% | 0.4 | 72.7% | 17.5% | |
| 8 | Bryce Slay | G | Fr | 6'6" | 24-0 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 41.3% | 35.7% | 1.2 | 81.3% | 16.5% | |
| 0 | Kai Spears | G | Jr | 6'3" | 15-0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 88.9% | 16.0% | |
| 14 | Grant Moore | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 35.8% | |
| 1 | Kaiden White | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Will Moore | G | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Ohio State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Devin Royal | F | Jr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 32.5 | 13.7 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 52.5% | 31.6% | 3.1 | 80.2% | 25.1% | |
| 0 | John Mobley Jr. | G | So | 6'1" | 31-31 | 31.6 | 15.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 56.7% | 41.1% | 7.6 | 86.8% | 28.2% | |
| 1 | Amare Bynum | F | Fr | 6'8" | 34-24 | 28.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 56.1% | 30.8% | 2.7 | 72.6% | 20.2% | |
| 4 | Gabe Cupps | G | So | 6'2" | 33-0 | 12.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 45.6% | 25.9% | 0.8 | 73.7% | 11.2% | |
| 3 | Taison Chatman | G | So | 6'4" | 28-3 | 12.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 59.8% | 47.1% | 1.8 | 85.0% | 19.8% | |
| 7 | Ivan Njegovan | C | So | 7'1" | 30-2 | 11.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 58.8% | 66.7% | 0.1 | 65.5% | 14.7% | |
| 14 | Brandon Noel | F | Sr | 6'8" | 16-10 | 18.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 65.1% | 20.0% | 0.9 | 73.3% | 18.3% | |
| 6 | Puff Johnson | G | Sr | 6'8" | 9-1 | 11.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 41.7% | 42.9% | 0.8 | 66.7% | 15.3% | |
| 9 | Mathieu Grujicic | G | Fr | 6'6" | 6-0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 18.8% | 14.3% | 1.2 | 42.9% | 20.7% | |
| 55 | Braylen Nash | G | So | 6'4" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 17 | Josh Ojianwuna | F | Sr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Myles Herro | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Marshall2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | Jalen Speer | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-32 | 32.5 | 15.7 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 48.7% | 36.4% | 7.8 | 83.0% | 30.4% | |
| 5 | Noah Otshudi | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-31 | 31.5 | 14.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 48.9% | 30.0% | 2.3 | 84.5% | 29.0% | |
| 3 | Wilson Dubinsky | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-0 | 18.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 49.6% | 37.1% | 3.3 | 77.4% | 15.6% | |
| 15 | Caleb Hollenbeck | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-27 | 17.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 58.3% | 39.7% | 4.3 | 41.7% | 17.5% | |
| 6 | Landen Joseph | G | Fr | 6'2" | 31-6 | 17.8 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 59.2% | 41.3% | 3.0 | 70.8% | 24.5% | |
| 13 | Matt Van Komen | C | Sr | 7'4" | 22-20 | 20.9 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 73.7% | — | 0.0 | 76.2% | 18.7% | |
| 11 | Erich Harding | F | So | 6'10" | 32-12 | 14.3 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 62.8% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 47.2% | 15.5% | |
| 9 | Shamarrie Hugie | G | Jr | 6'6" | 26-1 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 56.8% | 41.4% | 1.1 | 64.7% | 20.4% | |
| 4 | Drew Fuquay | F | Jr | 6'8" | 28-0 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 64.3% | 41.7% | 0.4 | 72.7% | 17.5% | |
| 8 | Bryce Slay | G | Fr | 6'6" | 24-0 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 41.3% | 35.7% | 1.2 | 81.3% | 16.5% | |
| 0 | Kai Spears | G | Jr | 6'3" | 15-0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 88.9% | 16.0% | |
| 14 | Grant Moore | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 35.8% | |
| 1 | Kaiden White | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Will Moore | G | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Marshall
Against the spread
Season
10-20-1
Home
4-11-1
Road
6-8
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −7.3
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
19-12
Home
12-4
Road
7-7
Last 10
8-2
avg vs total +12.6
Under in the last gameOver in 7 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | GA Southern | N | L 78–82 | −3.5 | L−7.5 | 166.5 | U160 | 107.7 | 113.3 | 72.4 |
| Feb 27 | GA Southern | H | L 82–99 | −7.5 | L−24.5 | 168.5 | O181 | 114.4 | 138.1 | 71.7 |
| Feb 24 | Old Dominion | H | W 97–88 | −8.5 | W+0.5 | 160.5 | O185 | 134.5 | 122.0 | 72.1 |
| Feb 21 | Coastal | A | L 75–79 | −2.5 | L−6.5 | 153.5 | O154 | 99.5 | 104.8 | 75.3 |
| Feb 19 | App State | A | W 94–93 | +3.5 | W+4.5 | 143.5 | O187 | 141.4 | 139.9 | 66.5 |
| Feb 16 | South Alabama | H | W 84–80 | −5.5 | L−1.5 | 151.0 | O164 | 129.8 | 123.6 | 64.7 |
| Feb 14 | GA Southern | A | L 87–101 | −2.5 | L−16.5 | 162.5 | O188 | 112.2 | 130.3 | 77.5 |
| Feb 11 | Old Dominion | A | W 81–79 | −3.0 | L−1.0 | 156.0 | O160 | 114.7 | 111.9 | 70.6 |
| Feb 7 | #23Miami OH | H | L 74–90 | +2.0 | L−14.0 | 164.5 | U164 | 104.9 | 127.6 | 70.5 |
| Feb 4 | Southern Miss | H | W 81–77 | −10.5 | L−6.5 | 148.5 | O158 | 122.1 | 116.1 | 66.3 |
Ohio State
Against the spread
Season
17-16-1
Home
7-9-1
Road
6-5
Last 10
8-2
avg cover +6.8
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-18
Home
10-7
Road
4-7
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −4.5
Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #9TCU | N | L 64–66 | −2.0 | L−4.0 | 146.0 | U130 | 102.5 | 105.7 | 62.4 |
| Mar 13 | #3Michigan | N | L 67–71 | +12.5 | W+8.5 | 155.0 | U138 | 100.0 | 106.0 | 67.0 |
| Mar 12 | Iowa | N | W 72–69 | +1.5 | W+4.5 | 140.5 | O141 | 124.1 | 118.9 | 58.0 |
| Mar 7 | Indiana | H | W 91–78 | −4.0 | W+9.0 | 148.0 | O169 | 134.0 | 114.8 | 67.9 |
| Mar 4 | Penn State | A | W 94–62 | −7.0 | W+25.0 | 152.0 | O156 | 145.1 | 95.7 | 64.8 |
| Mar 1 | #8Purdue | H | W 82–74 | +6.5 | W+14.5 | 149.5 | O156 | 133.4 | 120.4 | 61.5 |
| Feb 25 | Iowa | A | L 57–74 | +6.0 | L−11.0 | 140.5 | U131 | 97.4 | 126.4 | 58.5 |
| Feb 22 | #15Michigan St | A | L 60–66 | +10.0 | W+4.0 | 147.0 | U126 | 98.4 | 108.2 | 61.0 |
| Feb 17 | #24Wisconsin | H | W 86–69 | −1.0 | W+16.0 | 157.5 | U155 | 125.0 | 100.3 | 68.8 |
| Feb 14 | #15Virginia | N | L 66–70 | +5.0 | W+1.0 | 147.0 | U136 | 100.4 | 106.5 | 65.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMarshallOhio State
Efficiency
111.3
117.4
111.2
104.9
69.7
67.5
—
—
Shooting
54.8%
56.2%
54.6%
58.0%
36.8%
35.7%
73.0%
77.7%
29.2%
37.2%
Ball control & glass
16.6%
15.3%
16.3%
15.6%
31.9%
30.4%
33.8%
30.0%
10.1%
8.1%
8.1%
8.9%
Style
44.3%
40.1%
37.7%
43.4%
15.3%
8.5%
56.5%
52.6%
32.6%
23.7%
Roster
3.30
2.19
6'4.6"
6'5.5"
85.4%
66.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMarshall
Returning minutes: 85.4%Returning production: 80.3%
Lost
- Wyatt Fricks 29.1 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Kaiden White no D1 minutes last season
- Will Moore no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Ohio State
Returning minutes: 66.1%Returning production: 58.1%
Lost
- Bruce Thornton 36.6 mpg, 19.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christoph Tilly 24.5 mpg, 10.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Colin White 7.5 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to Akron
Added
- Myles Herro no D1 minutes last season
- Josh Ojianwuna no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 66% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.