CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMizzou Arena, Columbia, MO

SIUE

Efficiency #229

2025-26: 19-13 · 12-9 conf

Missouri

Efficiency #67

2025-26: 20-13 · 10-9 conf

Mon, Nov 9 · TBD

64.5

win 18%

Projected

75.1

win 82%

No line posted yet.

Model: MIZ −10.6 · total 139.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Missouri 67.7, SIUE 66.4 → 65.7 possessions

−5.6

Missouri offense vs SIUE defense

+1.9

SIUE offense vs Missouri defense

−4.9

Projected total

139.7

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Missouri offense vs SIUE defense

+1.9

SIUE offense vs Missouri defense

+4.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Missouri by 10.6

10.6

SIUE side ◂▸ Missouri side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 139.6 against a projected 139.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Missouri.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Missouri is the faster team (68.3, #182 of 365) and SIUE the slower (65.6, #314). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

139.7

model

Projected team totals

64.5 / 75.1

SIUE / Missouri

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.4#326

SIUE

67.7#235

Missouri

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMissouri

Where Missouri scores: the offensive glass

Missouri rebounds 34.9% of its own misses (#48); SIUE lets opponents grab 31.6% of their own misses (#235). Expect about 34.2%, 3.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Missouri's defense, SIUE's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect SIUE at about 39.1% of its shots from three, Missouri about 36.4%.

ClashMissouri

Strength vs strength: eFG%

Missouri (#36 in eFG%) against SIUE (#6 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 50.5%. Historically Missouri's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.58 vs 0.51).

ClashMissouri

Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting

Missouri (#38 in 2-point shooting) against SIUE (#11 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 51.3%. Historically Missouri's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).

ClashSIUE

Style clash: 3-point volume

SIUE rarely shoots threes (36.2% of its shots); Missouri lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 39.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

SIUE has the ball

OffenseMissouri allowsvs D1 avg

49.5% #266

51.5% #183

-1.3 pt/100

17.9% #268

16.5% #186

-0.6 pt/100

30.1% #195

31.7% #238

+0.3 pt/100

30.6% #294

35.5% #193

-0.2 pt/100

67.1% #343

—

-0.5 pt/100

SIUE net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.3 pts/100

Missouri has the ball

OffenseSIUE allowsvs D1 avg

55.0% #36

45.6% #6

-1.0 pt/100

17.8% #261

17.0% #148

-1.0 pt/100

34.9% #48

31.6% #235

+2.3 pt/100

42.1% #28

34.3% #159

+0.4 pt/100

69.1% #298

—

-0.3 pt/100

Missouri net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

SIUEoffense vsMissouridefense

Share of shots by zone

SIUE shoots

37.9

5.5

21.0

35.6

Missouri allows

32.8

7.0

17.0

43.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.9%#241	55.4%#72	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.5%#294	39.5%#172	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.0%#329	36.2%#116	38.0%
Three	35.0%#123	36.8%#341	33.7%

Missourioffense vsSIUEdefense

Share of shots by zone

Missouri shoots

43.9

7.6

12.5

35.9

SIUE allows

35.7

6.8

18.9

38.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.0%#21	54.3%#45	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.8%#247	31.1%#20	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.5%#301	35.7%#99	38.0%
Three	35.0%#112	30.2%#10	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

SIUE

−1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#265 of 365

Off reb %

30.1%

#195

Def reb %

68.4%

#235

Turnover %

17.9%

#268

Forced TO %

17.0%

#148

FT rate

30.6%

#294

FT allowed

34.3%

#159

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−0.8

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+0.2

Missouri

+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#97 of 365

Off reb %

34.9%

#48

Def reb %

68.3%

#238

Turnover %

17.8%

#261

Forced TO %

16.5%

#186

FT rate

42.1%

#28

FT allowed

35.5%

#193

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.5

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Missouri has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#97 of 365) to SIUE’s −1.9 (#265).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SIUE2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Jack Campion	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	27.5	8.2	3.7	5.2	2.3	43.8%	38.8%	2.1	72.8%	23.5%
33	Jo Valrie	F	Sr	6'5"	32-24	23.6	6.3	4.3	0.4	1.1	49.4%	37.3%	2.3	68.9%	18.4%
4	Darrion Baker	F	So	6'8"	32-18	20.4	7.3	4.1	0.7	1.3	58.5%	45.3%	2.3	64.7%	22.0%
9	Tyler King	G	Jr	6'4"	30-17	21.1	9.9	2.5	1.0	0.7	53.5%	36.2%	3.9	60.7%	28.2%
1	Jordan Pickett	G	Jr	6'3"	31-15	19.9	5.3	3.0	1.3	0.9	41.3%	31.1%	2.9	72.2%	20.6%
24	Kyle Thomas	F	Sr	6'10"	27-4	19.1	6.7	3.9	0.4	0.9	48.4%	33.3%	1.2	82.5%	22.7%
0	Ring Malith	G	Sr	6'9"	14-14	29.7	17.0	5.4	1.5	1.8	54.4%	32.9%	5.0	73.9%	32.2%
2	CJ Hall	G	Sr	6'2"	29-0	13.1	4.7	1.8	1.7	0.9	42.4%	33.3%	1.6	65.0%	28.1%
21	Myles Thompson	F	Sr	6'7"	8-8	28.6	10.8	6.1	1.4	2.0	47.9%	21.4%	1.8	54.3%	26.5%
7	Darius Robinson Jr.	G	Sr	6'1"	22-0	9.6	3.4	0.8	0.8	0.5	44.0%	29.2%	2.2	64.3%	25.8%
17	Corentin Efono	G	Fr	6'4"	19-0	9.4	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.6	55.3%	20.0%	0.3	66.7%	10.8%
8	Harrison Alexander	G	So	6'5"	18-0	8.2	3.5	0.8	0.3	0.4	57.7%	27.6%	1.6	60.0%	24.9%
20	Iwo Baganc	F	Fr	6'8"	9-0	5.2	2.8	1.1	0.1	0.2	71.4%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	20.9%
11	Dehrio McCaskill	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Missouri2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Jordan Crawfordat South Dakota	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	31.2	14.4	2.9	1.4	1.3	51.7%	36.8%	6.5	74.5%	26.1%
0	Cord Stansberryat W Carolina	G	Sr	6'4"	30-29	30.0	14.1	4.0	2.1	1.4	43.6%	29.6%	6.3	80.3%	30.2%
4	Kennard Davis Jr.at BYU	G	Sr	6'6"	32-32	29.5	8.5	2.7	1.3	0.7	50.6%	32.1%	5.2	75.0%	16.8%
15	Bryson Tillerat Kansas	F	So	6'11"	35-31	25.9	7.9	6.1	1.0	1.8	48.0%	26.9%	1.5	69.4%	21.3%
1	Jamier Jonesat Providence	G	So	6'6"	31-19	25.7	11.9	4.5	1.4	1.7	59.5%	38.7%	1.0	66.4%	24.7%
23	Jaylen Careyat Tennessee	F	Sr	6'8"	37-8	18.4	7.4	6.0	1.3	0.9	48.7%	0.0%	0.1	49.1%	27.3%
11	Trent Pierce	G	Sr	6'10"	20-12	28.4	10.4	3.8	1.1	0.8	59.7%	38.4%	5.0	75.0%	19.3%
45	Luke Northweather	F	Sr	6'11"	20-2	12.3	3.0	2.4	0.6	0.3	61.1%	41.9%	1.6	57.1%	12.6%
7	Trent Burns	C	Jr	7'5"	21-0	8.7	2.1	1.9	0.1	0.5	45.6%	7.7%	0.6	50.0%	19.0%
6	Annor Boateng	G	Jr	6'6"	15-4	11.5	2.7	1.8	0.3	1.1	37.5%	25.0%	1.3	50.0%	23.2%
24	Nicholas Randall	F	So	6'9"	22-0	5.5	0.7	1.0	0.1	0.4	27.8%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	15.5%
2	Aaron Rowe	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Aidan Chronister	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
5	Jason Crowe Jr.	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Toni Bryant	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Jaylen Carey (from Tennessee), Jordan Crawford (from South Dakota), Kennard Davis Jr. (from BYU), Jamier Jones (from Providence), Cord Stansberry (from W Carolina), Bryson Tiller (from Kansas)

SIUE2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Jack Campion	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	27.5	8.2	3.7	5.2	2.3	43.8%	38.8%	2.1	72.8%	23.5%
33	Jo Valrie	F	Sr	6'5"	32-24	23.6	6.3	4.3	0.4	1.1	49.4%	37.3%	2.3	68.9%	18.4%
4	Darrion Baker	F	So	6'8"	32-18	20.4	7.3	4.1	0.7	1.3	58.5%	45.3%	2.3	64.7%	22.0%
9	Tyler King	G	Jr	6'4"	30-17	21.1	9.9	2.5	1.0	0.7	53.5%	36.2%	3.9	60.7%	28.2%
1	Jordan Pickett	G	Jr	6'3"	31-15	19.9	5.3	3.0	1.3	0.9	41.3%	31.1%	2.9	72.2%	20.6%
24	Kyle Thomas	F	Sr	6'10"	27-4	19.1	6.7	3.9	0.4	0.9	48.4%	33.3%	1.2	82.5%	22.7%
0	Ring Malith	G	Sr	6'9"	14-14	29.7	17.0	5.4	1.5	1.8	54.4%	32.9%	5.0	73.9%	32.2%
2	CJ Hall	G	Sr	6'2"	29-0	13.1	4.7	1.8	1.7	0.9	42.4%	33.3%	1.6	65.0%	28.1%
21	Myles Thompson	F	Sr	6'7"	8-8	28.6	10.8	6.1	1.4	2.0	47.9%	21.4%	1.8	54.3%	26.5%
7	Darius Robinson Jr.	G	Sr	6'1"	22-0	9.6	3.4	0.8	0.8	0.5	44.0%	29.2%	2.2	64.3%	25.8%
17	Corentin Efono	G	Fr	6'4"	19-0	9.4	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.6	55.3%	20.0%	0.3	66.7%	10.8%
8	Harrison Alexander	G	So	6'5"	18-0	8.2	3.5	0.8	0.3	0.4	57.7%	27.6%	1.6	60.0%	24.9%
20	Iwo Baganc	F	Fr	6'8"	9-0	5.2	2.8	1.1	0.1	0.2	71.4%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	20.9%
11	Dehrio McCaskill	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

SIUE

Against the spread

Season

15-14

Home

5-7

Road

9-6

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-18

Home

4-8

Road

5-10

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −3.5

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	E IllinoisAdjEM #317	N	L 71–77 OT	−4.5	L−10.5	128.0	O148	102.8	111.5	69.0
Feb 28	E IllinoisAdjEM #317	H	W 77–50	−6.0	W+21.0	130.0	U127	127.9	83.0	60.2
Feb 26	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	H	W 67–47	−14.0	W+6.0	135.5	U114	99.6	69.8	67.3
Feb 21	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	A	L 53–80	+4.5	L−22.5	143.5	U133	83.2	125.6	63.7
Feb 19	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	A	L 52–62	−2.0	L−12.0	135.0	U114	77.1	92.0	67.4
Feb 14	UT MartinAdjEM #182	H	L 76–81	+1.5	L−3.5	130.0	O157	112.3	119.7	67.7
Feb 12	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	H	W 74–56	+1.0	W+19.0	137.5	U130	112.8	85.4	65.6
Feb 7	Little RockAdjEM #300	A	W 71–61	+1.5	W+11.5	133.0	U132	105.3	90.5	67.4
Feb 3	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	A	W 78–72	+4.5	W+10.5	140.5	O150	106.8	98.6	73.0
Jan 31	S IndianaAdjEM #333	A	W 58–46	−2.0	W+10.0	130.5	U104	96.1	76.2	60.4

Missouri

Against the spread

Season

14-19

Home

8-10

Road

6-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.2

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-15-1

Home

11-7

Road

4-6-1

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.7

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#7MiamiAdjEM #30	N	L 66–80	+1.0	L−13.0	145.5	O146	98.3	119.1	67.2
Mar 12	KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	L 72–78	+3.5	L−2.5	149.5	O150	104.5	113.2	68.9
Mar 7	#20ArkansasAdjEM #19	H	L 84–88 OT	−2.5	L−6.5	161.5	O172	109.9	115.1	76.4
Mar 3	OklahomaAdjEM #47	A	L 64–80	+1.0	L−15.0	154.0	U144	100.7	125.9	63.5
Feb 28	Mississippi StAdjEM #144	A	W 88–64	−1.0	W+23.0	154.5	U152	127.9	93.0	68.8
Feb 24	#22TennesseeAdjEM #13	H	W 73–69	+4.0	W+8.0	144.0	U142	111.4	105.3	65.6
Feb 21	#20ArkansasAdjEM #19	A	L 86–94	+9.5	W+1.5	159.5	O180	125.7	137.4	68.4
Feb 18	#19VanderbiltAdjEM #12	H	W 81–80	+3.0	W+4.0	155.0	O161	115.9	114.5	69.9
Feb 14	TexasAdjEM #38	H	L 68–85	−2.0	L−19.0	150.5	O153	105.4	131.8	64.5
Feb 11	Texas A&MAdjEM #43	A	W 86–85	+6.5	W+7.5	160.0	O171	131.0	129.5	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SIUEMissouri

Efficiency

103.0

114.0

105.9

106.5

66.4

67.7

—

Shooting

49.5%

55.0%

47.8%

56.4%

35.0%

67.1%

69.1%

30.6%

42.1%

Ball control & glass

17.9%

17.8%

17.0%

16.5%

30.1%

34.9%

31.6%

31.7%

10.6%

9.6%

8.9%

9.7%

Style

36.2%

36.4%

42.6%

48.3%

12.1%

14.1%

50.9%

51.2%

33.4%

32.1%

Roster

3.38

3.39

6'4.6"

6'6.9"

87.8%

19.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SIUE

Returning minutes: 87.8%Returning production: 82.7%

Lost

Arnas Sakenis 24.5 mpg, 8.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Dehrio McCaskill no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Missouri

Returning minutes: 19.4%Returning production: 13.8%

Lost

Mark Mitchell Jr. 33.8 mpg, 18.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Anthony Robinson II 27.0 mpg, 8.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St
Jayden Stone 23.6 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
T.O. Barrett 22.8 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jacob Crews 20.7 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Shawn Phillips Jr. 19.3 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Jordan Crawford from South Dakota · 31.2 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
Cord Stansberry from W Carolina · 29.1 mpg, 13.7 ppg last season
Kennard Davis Jr. from BYU · 27.0 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
Bryson Tiller from Kansas · 25.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg last season
Jamier Jones from Providence · 24.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
Jaylen Carey from Tennessee · 18.4 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season

Returns 19% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.