CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFifth Third Arena, Cincinnati, OH

Minnesota

Efficiency #94

2025-26: 15-18 · 8-13 conf

Cincinnati

Efficiency #52

2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf

Mon, Nov 9 · TBD

63.8

win 28%

Projected

70.7

win 72%

No line posted yet.

Model: CIN −6.9 · total 134.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Cincinnati 68.5, Minnesota 65.1 → 65.3 possessions

−6.5

Cincinnati offense vs Minnesota defense

−2.0

Minnesota offense vs Cincinnati defense

−5.2

Projected total

134.6

Axis starts at 125 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Cincinnati offense vs Minnesota defense

−2.0

Minnesota offense vs Cincinnati defense

+5.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Cincinnati by 6.9

6.9

Minnesota side ◂▸ Cincinnati side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 134.5 against a projected 134.6, and the margin steps add to +7.0 against +6.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Cincinnati.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cincinnati is the faster team (69.2, #136 of 365) and Minnesota the slower (62.9, #364). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

134.6

model

Projected team totals

63.8 / 70.7

Minnesota / Cincinnati

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.1#362

Minnesota

68.5#163

Cincinnati

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashCincinnati

Style match: ball movement

Cincinnati assists on 63.7% of its made baskets; Minnesota allows assists on 60.4% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 64.9% — both habits push the same way.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Cincinnati averages 69.2 possessions per 40, Minnesota 62.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageMinnesota

Where Minnesota struggles: the offensive glass

Minnesota rebounds 26.8% of its own misses (#304); Cincinnati lets opponents grab 27.3% of their own misses (#45). Expect about 26.4%, 4.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Cincinnati's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Minnesota at about 45.9% of its shots from three, Cincinnati about 44.2%.

ClashMinnesota

Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting

Minnesota (#40 in 2-point shooting) against Cincinnati (#42 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.3%. Historically Minnesota's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).

Minnesota has the ball

OffenseCincinnati allowsvs D1 avg

53.9% #69

47.3% #27

-0.7 pt/100

16.5% #167

18.2% #89

-1.0 pt/100

26.8% #304

27.3% #45

-2.5 pt/100

35.8% #159

30.0% #58

-0.3 pt/100

69.4% #286

—

-0.3 pt/100

Minnesota net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.7 pts/100

Cincinnati has the ball

OffenseMinnesota allowsvs D1 avg

50.5% #213

51.9% #207

-0.2 pt/100

17.0% #203

16.9% #162

-0.2 pt/100

30.6% #174

29.5% #137

-0.2 pt/100

29.4% #323

26.9% #21

-0.9 pt/100

68.1% #325

—

-0.4 pt/100

Cincinnati net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Minnesotaoffense vsCincinnatidefense

Share of shots by zone

Minnesota shoots

34.7

4.9

12.5

47.9

Cincinnati allows

32.5

6.5

21.1

39.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.5%#45	53.7%#35	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.7%#69	39.4%#170	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.5%#202	41.9%#298	38.0%
Three	34.2%#164	31.0%#35	33.7%

Cincinnatioffense vsMinnesotadefense

Share of shots by zone

Cincinnati shoots

28.3

7.4

21.1

43.2

Minnesota allows

32.6

6.5

19.6

41.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.9%#120	60.9%#268	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	48.6%#345	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.4%#173	37.6%#150	38.0%
Three	33.9%#175	34.7%#229	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Minnesota

+1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#111 of 365

Off reb %

26.8%

#304

Def reb %

70.5%

#137

Turnover %

16.5%

#167

Forced TO %

16.9%

#162

FT rate

35.8%

#159

FT allowed

26.9%

#21

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+0.2

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed+2.1

Cincinnati

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#100 of 365

Off reb %

30.6%

#174

Def reb %

72.7%

#45

Turnover %

17.0%

#203

Forced TO %

18.2%

#89

FT rate

29.4%

#323

FT allowed

30.0%

#58

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Cincinnati has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#100 of 365) to Minnesota’s +1.8 (#111).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Minnesota2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Minnesota's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Cade Tyson	G	Sr	6'7"	32-32	36.7	19.6	5.4	2.1	1.6	59.3%	41.3%	5.4	82.2%	29.1%
1	Isaac Asuma	G	So	6'3"	33-33	34.3	10.9	4.0	3.7	2.2	48.9%	30.4%	5.8	74.2%	23.8%
6	Langston Reynolds	G	Sr	6'4"	33-26	33.2	11.6	4.3	4.5	2.6	55.9%	25.6%	1.3	59.2%	24.5%
3	Bobby Durkin	F	Jr	6'7"	33-25	32.8	10.2	3.2	1.8	0.8	58.8%	39.2%	6.2	87.5%	17.9%
5	Jaylen Crocker-Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	24-24	31.5	13.4	6.8	1.8	1.7	49.3%	32.3%	5.4	71.8%	28.9%
2	Grayson Grove	F	Fr	6'9"	32-12	20.6	4.0	3.2	1.7	0.5	62.0%	26.3%	0.6	25.0%	12.6%
9	Kai Shinholster	G	Fr	6'5"	31-0	13.1	1.8	1.2	1.0	0.4	37.5%	22.5%	1.3	75.0%	13.1%
0	Chansey Willis Jr.	G	Jr	6'2"	7-7	26.6	6.3	3.0	3.3	2.1	43.6%	18.2%	1.6	45.5%	21.6%
22	Robert Vaihola	F	Sr	6'8"	5-5	21.4	5.0	7.6	1.4	1.0	70.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.6%
4	Nehemiah Turner	F	So	6'10"	7-1	5.9	0.7	1.6	0.3	0.3	20.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	18.8%
11	Maximus Gizzi	G	Sr	6'1"	10-0	2.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	10.3%
12	RJ Spencer	G	Sr	6'3"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	23.7%
20	BJ Omot	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Chance Stephens	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Max Lorenson	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cincinnati2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
52	Moustapha Thiam	C	So	7'2"	31-31	27.2	12.8	7.1	0.5	1.4	54.9%	28.8%	1.7	63.3%	26.9%
2	Jizzle James	G	Jr	6'3"	23-21	30.0	10.9	2.2	2.1	1.7	53.7%	44.2%	4.1	77.3%	23.1%
11	Kerr Kriisa	G	Sr	6'3"	19-12	20.9	5.8	1.3	3.0	1.3	48.1%	32.0%	5.1	75.0%	18.8%
7	Keyshuan Tillery	G	Fr	6'0"	31-0	12.4	3.8	1.2	1.8	1.2	44.4%	33.3%	1.5	70.0%	24.1%
24	Tyler McKinley	F	Fr	6'9"	25-3	12.1	1.8	2.2	0.6	0.4	51.2%	0.0%	0.1	22.2%	10.7%
65	Halvine Dzellat	C	So	6'10"	26-0	8.3	2.1	2.0	0.1	0.4	55.3%	0.0%	0.0	72.2%	15.5%
17	Jordi Rodriguez	G	Fr	6'6"	15-0	8.1	2.3	1.1	0.5	0.3	40.0%	27.6%	1.9	60.0%	20.3%
13	Grant Darbyshire	G	Sr	6'2"	7-0	1.9	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0%	—	0.0	—	21.4%
0	Bryson Buckingham	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Jalen Haynes	F	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Lucas Atauri	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Minnesota2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Minnesota's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Cade Tyson	G	Sr	6'7"	32-32	36.7	19.6	5.4	2.1	1.6	59.3%	41.3%	5.4	82.2%	29.1%
1	Isaac Asuma	G	So	6'3"	33-33	34.3	10.9	4.0	3.7	2.2	48.9%	30.4%	5.8	74.2%	23.8%
6	Langston Reynolds	G	Sr	6'4"	33-26	33.2	11.6	4.3	4.5	2.6	55.9%	25.6%	1.3	59.2%	24.5%
3	Bobby Durkin	F	Jr	6'7"	33-25	32.8	10.2	3.2	1.8	0.8	58.8%	39.2%	6.2	87.5%	17.9%
5	Jaylen Crocker-Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	24-24	31.5	13.4	6.8	1.8	1.7	49.3%	32.3%	5.4	71.8%	28.9%
2	Grayson Grove	F	Fr	6'9"	32-12	20.6	4.0	3.2	1.7	0.5	62.0%	26.3%	0.6	25.0%	12.6%
9	Kai Shinholster	G	Fr	6'5"	31-0	13.1	1.8	1.2	1.0	0.4	37.5%	22.5%	1.3	75.0%	13.1%
0	Chansey Willis Jr.	G	Jr	6'2"	7-7	26.6	6.3	3.0	3.3	2.1	43.6%	18.2%	1.6	45.5%	21.6%
22	Robert Vaihola	F	Sr	6'8"	5-5	21.4	5.0	7.6	1.4	1.0	70.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.6%
4	Nehemiah Turner	F	So	6'10"	7-1	5.9	0.7	1.6	0.3	0.3	20.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	18.8%
11	Maximus Gizzi	G	Sr	6'1"	10-0	2.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	10.3%
12	RJ Spencer	G	Sr	6'3"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	23.7%
20	BJ Omot	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Chance Stephens	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Max Lorenson	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Minnesota

Against the spread

Season

14-18-1

Home

9-8

Road

5-5-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.3

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-20

Home

6-11

Road

4-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −7.5

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 1	BaylorAdjEM #55	N	L 48–67	+3.5	L−15.5	146.5	U115	80.7	112.7	59.5
Mar 11	RutgersAdjEM #192	N	L 67–72	−6.0	L−11.0	136.0	O139	104.9	112.7	63.9
Mar 7	NorthwesternAdjEM #78	H	W 67–66	−4.0	L−3.0	133.5	U133	121.5	119.7	55.1
Mar 4	IndianaAdjEM #45	A	L 47–77	+6.5	L−23.5	138.5	U124	76.7	125.7	61.3
Feb 28	UCLAAdjEM #37	H	W 78–73	+1.5	W+6.5	135.5	O151	140.4	131.4	55.6
Feb 24	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	A	L 67–77	+22.5	W+12.5	146.0	U144	103.7	119.2	64.6
Feb 21	RutgersAdjEM #192	H	W 80–61	−8.5	W+10.5	133.5	O141	136.6	104.2	58.6
Feb 17	OregonAdjEM #143	A	W 61–44	+3.5	W+20.5	134.5	U105	101.9	73.5	59.9
Feb 14	WashingtonAdjEM #59	A	L 57–69	+7.0	L−5.0	138.5	U126	95.1	115.1	59.9
Feb 8	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	L 62–67	−10.0	L−15.0	139.0	U129	113.0	122.1	54.9

Cincinnati

Against the spread

Season

14-19

Home

10-8

Road

3-7

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +7.0

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-21

Home

6-12

Road

5-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +2.9

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	UCFAdjEM #70	N	L 65–66 OT	−3.5	L−4.5	149.0	U131	85.0	86.3	76.5
Mar 10	UtahAdjEM #177	N	W 73–66	−12.0	L−5.0	137.5	O139	111.3	100.6	65.6
Mar 7	TCUAdjEM #51	A	L 63–73	+2.5	L−7.5	139.5	U136	99.3	115.1	63.4
Mar 3	BYUAdjEM #26	H	W 90–68	−1.5	W+20.5	152.5	O158	125.5	94.8	71.7
Feb 28	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	H	W 91–68	−9.5	W+13.5	152.5	O159	126.7	94.7	71.8
Feb 24	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	A	L 68–80	+6.5	L−5.5	143.5	O148	111.8	131.5	60.8
Feb 21	#8KansasAdjEM #25	A	W 84–68	+9.0	W+25.0	139.0	O152	124.2	100.5	67.7
Feb 15	UtahAdjEM #177	H	W 69–65	−12.5	L−8.5	139.0	U134	108.2	101.9	63.8
Feb 11	Kansas StAdjEM #128	A	W 91–62	−2.5	W+26.5	147.0	O153	129.2	88.0	70.4
Feb 8	UCFAdjEM #70	H	W 92–72	−4.5	W+15.5	146.0	O164	131.3	102.8	70.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MinnesotaCincinnati

Efficiency

109.8

108.5

105.4

99.2

65.1

68.5

—

Shooting

53.9%

50.5%

56.2%

50.2%

34.2%

33.9%

69.4%

68.1%

35.8%

29.4%

Ball control & glass

16.5%

17.0%

16.9%

18.2%

26.8%

30.6%

29.5%

27.3%

8.8%

8.3%

12.2%

6.8%

Style

47.1%

43.8%

41.6%

36.8%

11.1%

15.3%

71.0%

63.7%

16.4%

29.1%

Roster

2.87

2.24

6'5.9"

6'7"

—

44.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Minnesota

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Minnesota's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Cincinnati

Returning minutes: 44.8%Returning production: 40.2%

Lost

Day Day Thomas 30.4 mpg, 11.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Baba Miller 29.9 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jalen Celestine 23.1 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Sencire Harris 15.9 mpg, 5.4 ppg · transferred to E Michigan
Shon Abaev 11.6 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Jalen Haynes no D1 minutes last season
Bryson Buckingham no D1 minutes last season
Lucas Atauri no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 45% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.