CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceStroh Center, Bowling Green, OH
Cleveland St
Efficiency #330
2025-26: 11-22 · 7-15 conf
@
Bowling Green
Efficiency #114
2025-26: 18-14 · 9-10 conf
Mon, Nov 9 · TBD
71.9
win 13%
Projected
85.1
win 87%
No line posted yet.
Model: BGSU −13.1 · total 157.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Bowling Green 68.9, Cleveland St 69.9 → 70.5 possessions
+4.7
Bowling Green offense vs Cleveland St defense
+6.6
Cleveland St offense vs Bowling Green defense
−2.5
Projected total
157.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Bowling Green offense vs Cleveland St defense
+6.6
Cleveland St offense vs Bowling Green defense
+2.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Bowling Green by 13.1
13.1
Cleveland St side ◂▸ Bowling Green side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +13.2 against +13.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bowling Green.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cleveland St is the faster team (71.4, #39 of 365) and Bowling Green the slower (70.2, #86). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
157.0
model
Projected team totals
71.9 / 85.1
Cleveland St / Bowling Green
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.9#59
Cleveland St
68.9#128
Bowling Green
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageBowling Green
Where Bowling Green scores: shooting
Bowling Green shoots an effective 51.8% (#153); Cleveland St allows 57.2% (#360). Expect about 54.6%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.7 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Bowling Green averages 70.2 possessions per 40, Cleveland St 71.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageCleveland St
Where Cleveland St struggles: the offensive glass
Cleveland St rebounds 27.0% of its own misses (#294); Bowling Green lets opponents grab 26.9% of their own misses (#31). Expect about 26.3%, 4.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversCleveland St
Cleveland St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.4% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Cleveland St's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Cleveland St) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Cleveland St at about 49.6% of its shots from three, Bowling Green about 38.2%.
DefenseBowling Green
Bowling Green's ball-hawking
Bowling Green ranks #31 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.9% of Cleveland St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Cleveland St has the ball
OffenseBowling Green allowsvs D1 avg
54.2% #62
51.0% #163
+2.2 pt/100
17.8% #262
18.4% #80
-2.0 pt/100
27.0% #294
26.9% #31
-2.5 pt/100
37.9% #105
37.2% #243
+0.3 pt/100
76.2% #48
—
+0.3 pt/100
Cleveland St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.7 pts/100
Bowling Green has the ball
OffenseCleveland St allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #153
57.2% #360
+4.7 pt/100
16.5% #166
15.1% #278
+1.5 pt/100
28.7% #244
36.6% #356
+1.1 pt/100
37.0% #129
35.5% #196
+0.2 pt/100
72.3% #196
—
-0.0 pt/100
Bowling Green net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersCleveland Stoffense vsBowling Greendefense
Share of shots by zone
Cleveland St shoots
33.2
4.9
11.2
50.7
Bowling Green allows
36.2
10.8
11.8
41.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.0%#160 | 55.8%#81 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.6%#275 | 46.3%#323 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.1%#310 | 40.2%#251 | 38.0% |
| Three | 37.5%#21 | 33.5%#161 | 33.7% |
Bowling Greenoffense vsCleveland Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Bowling Green shoots
49.9
8.9
8.1
33.1
Cleveland St allows
38.0
6.0
12.0
44.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.4%#214 | 67.1%#361 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.8%#306 | 43.0%#252 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.5%#274 | 42.0%#305 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.4%#148 | 36.2%#309 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersCleveland St
−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#331 of 365
Off reb %
27.0%
#294
Def reb %
63.4%
#356
Turnover %
17.8%
#262
Forced TO %
15.1%
#278
FT rate
37.9%
#105
FT allowed
35.5%
#196
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding−1.9
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Bowling Green
+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#98 of 365
Off reb %
28.7%
#244
Def reb %
73.1%
#31
Turnover %
16.5%
#166
Forced TO %
18.4%
#80
FT rate
37.0%
#129
FT allowed
37.2%
#243
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Bowling Green has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#98 of 365) to Cleveland St’s −4.2 (#331).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Cleveland St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tre Beard | G | Sr | 5'10" | 30-30 | 30.9 | 12.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 58.6% | 41.9% | 6.8 | 85.7% | 20.5% | |
| 2 | Jaidon Lipscomb | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-32 | 27.4 | 12.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 61.2% | 41.7% | 7.0 | 85.5% | 24.5% | |
| 1 | Chevalier Emery | G | Jr | 6'0" | 33-1 | 21.8 | 12.7 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 54.9% | 38.2% | 4.0 | 78.0% | 32.3% | |
| 7 | Dayan Nessah | F | So | 6'7" | 26-26 | 27.4 | 15.5 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 57.0% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 75.0% | 30.9% | |
| 0 | Foster Wonders | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-9 | 22.1 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 53.0% | 34.4% | 3.9 | 72.7% | 13.7% | |
| 22 | Josiah Harris | F | Jr | 6'7" | 22-14 | 26.6 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 49.4% | 33.0% | 4.1 | 81.3% | 20.4% | |
| 24 | Kamari Jones | G | So | 6'4" | 23-4 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 47.1% | 31.7% | 2.6 | 78.3% | 23.6% | |
| 5 | David Giddens | G | Jr | 6'7" | 22-3 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 51.4% | 29.6% | 2.5 | 70.0% | 22.3% | |
| 23 | Manny Hill | G | Sr | 6'0" | 19-0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 47.4% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 69.2% | 23.6% | |
| 15 | Ivan Spirov | F | Jr | 6'8" | 17-0 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 54.4% | 33.3% | 0.5 | — | 18.7% | |
| 13 | Lucas Burton | F | Sr | 6'8" | 13-1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 61.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 66.7% | 19.3% | |
| 50 | Kevo St. Hilaire | F | Fr | 6'10" | 15-0 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 58.3% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 14.4% | |
| 11 | Waqo Tessema | G | Jr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Bowling Green2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jayden Johnsonat SC State | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-29 | 27.4 | 13.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 48.8% | 37.0% | 3.1 | 72.6% | 31.5% | |
| 8 | Juan Cranford Jr.at E Kentucky | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-29 | 25.9 | 12.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 53.3% | 36.3% | 7.0 | 79.6% | 27.2% | |
| 4 | Josiah Shackelford | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-14 | 22.8 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 52.0% | 35.3% | 3.6 | 74.7% | 27.2% | |
| 3 | Makhi Leach | G | So | 6'2" | 25-0 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 47.5% | 11.1% | 0.7 | 75.0% | 21.9% | |
| 34 | Aiden Goins | F | Sr | 6'9" | 25-0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 48.3% | 25.0% | 0.8 | 87.9% | 29.6% | |
| 22 | Christ Essandokoat South Carolina | F | Sr | 7'1" | 21-4 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 38.6% | 37.5% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 23.1% | |
| 0 | Tristan Beckfordat South Florida | G | So | 6'7" | 19-1 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 52.7% | 23.1% | 0.7 | 72.7% | 19.2% | |
| 15 | Camden Karel | F | So | 6'9" | 19-0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 64.6% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 18.0% | |
| 13 | Preston Squire | F | Jr | 6'11" | 4-0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 10.0% | |
| 5 | Christian Dedivanaj | G | So | 6'3" | 5-0 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 4.0% | |
| 2 | KJ Torbert | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 35 | Leek Ateny | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Talan Staley | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Trey Simmons | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Zach Howell | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Tristan Beckford (from South Florida), Juan Cranford Jr. (from E Kentucky), Christ Essandoko (from South Carolina), Jayden Johnson (from SC State)
Cleveland St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tre Beard | G | Sr | 5'10" | 30-30 | 30.9 | 12.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 58.6% | 41.9% | 6.8 | 85.7% | 20.5% | |
| 2 | Jaidon Lipscomb | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-32 | 27.4 | 12.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 61.2% | 41.7% | 7.0 | 85.5% | 24.5% | |
| 1 | Chevalier Emery | G | Jr | 6'0" | 33-1 | 21.8 | 12.7 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 54.9% | 38.2% | 4.0 | 78.0% | 32.3% | |
| 7 | Dayan Nessah | F | So | 6'7" | 26-26 | 27.4 | 15.5 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 57.0% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 75.0% | 30.9% | |
| 0 | Foster Wonders | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-9 | 22.1 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 53.0% | 34.4% | 3.9 | 72.7% | 13.7% | |
| 22 | Josiah Harris | F | Jr | 6'7" | 22-14 | 26.6 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 49.4% | 33.0% | 4.1 | 81.3% | 20.4% | |
| 24 | Kamari Jones | G | So | 6'4" | 23-4 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 47.1% | 31.7% | 2.6 | 78.3% | 23.6% | |
| 5 | David Giddens | G | Jr | 6'7" | 22-3 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 51.4% | 29.6% | 2.5 | 70.0% | 22.3% | |
| 23 | Manny Hill | G | Sr | 6'0" | 19-0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 47.4% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 69.2% | 23.6% | |
| 15 | Ivan Spirov | F | Jr | 6'8" | 17-0 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 54.4% | 33.3% | 0.5 | — | 18.7% | |
| 13 | Lucas Burton | F | Sr | 6'8" | 13-1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 61.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 66.7% | 19.3% | |
| 50 | Kevo St. Hilaire | F | Fr | 6'10" | 15-0 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 58.3% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 14.4% | |
| 11 | Waqo Tessema | G | Jr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Cleveland St
Against the spread
Season
12-18
Home
4-8
Road
6-10
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −3.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
19-11
Home
7-5
Road
10-6
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +5.5
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Wright St | A | L 61–90 | +14.5 | L−14.5 | 161.5 | U151 | 88.1 | 130.0 | 69.2 |
| Mar 2 | IU Indy | H | W 101–93 | −1.0 | W+7.0 | 169.5 | O194 | 121.7 | 112.1 | 83.0 |
| Feb 28 | Robert Morris | A | L 64–83 | +12.5 | L−6.5 | 157.5 | U147 | 100.1 | 129.8 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | N Kentucky | H | L 70–81 | +8.0 | L−3.0 | 165.5 | U151 | 97.0 | 112.2 | 72.2 |
| Feb 22 | Purdue FW | H | L 86–92 | +3.0 | L−3.0 | 163.0 | O178 | 112.8 | 120.7 | 76.2 |
| Feb 18 | Youngstown St | A | L 82–106 | +11.0 | L−13.0 | 156.5 | O188 | 116.8 | 151.0 | 70.2 |
| Feb 15 | Wright St | H | L 90–102 | +7.5 | L−4.5 | 158.5 | O192 | 121.2 | 137.4 | 74.2 |
| Feb 12 | Robert Morris | H | L 68–85 | +4.0 | L−13.0 | 154.0 | U153 | 108.3 | 135.3 | 62.8 |
| Feb 7 | IU Indy | A | L 74–82 | +2.5 | L−5.5 | 168.5 | U156 | 98.7 | 109.3 | 75.0 |
| Feb 4 | Oakland | H | W 91–78 | +8.0 | W+21.0 | 169.5 | U169 | 127.7 | 109.5 | 71.3 |
Bowling Green
Against the spread
Season
14-14-1
Home
5-8-1
Road
7-5
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −2.3
Covered 3 straightCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
11-17-1
Home
5-8-1
Road
5-7
Last 10
4-5-1
avg vs total −1.9
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as a favorite, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | Toledo | N | L 76–77 | +1.5 | W+0.5 | 152.0 | O153 | 111.6 | 113.1 | 68.1 |
| Mar 6 | E Michigan | A | W 77–69 | −5.0 | W+3.0 | 143.0 | O146 | 108.2 | 96.9 | 71.2 |
| Feb 28 | UMass | H | W 81–62 | −4.0 | W+15.0 | 151.5 | U143 | 123.5 | 94.5 | 65.6 |
| Feb 24 | W Michigan | H | L 79–88 | −12.0 | L−21.0 | 149.0 | O167 | 108.3 | 120.6 | 73.0 |
| Feb 20 | #22Miami OH | A | L 77–91 | +8.0 | L−6.0 | 154.0 | O168 | 104.1 | 123.0 | 74.0 |
| Feb 17 | Kent State | H | L 71–78 | −2.5 | L−9.5 | 151.5 | U149 | 97.9 | 107.5 | 72.5 |
| Feb 14 | Toledo | H | W 80–70 | −4.0 | W+6.0 | 150.0 | P150 | 122.0 | 106.7 | 65.6 |
| Feb 11 | N Illinois | A | W 68–52 | −7.5 | W+8.5 | 145.0 | U120 | 97.6 | 74.6 | 69.7 |
| Feb 7 | Arkansas St | A | L 54–91 | +3.5 | L−33.5 | 155.0 | U145 | 71.8 | 121.0 | 75.2 |
| Feb 3 | Ball State | H | W 77–52 | −11.0 | W+14.0 | 138.0 | U129 | 123.0 | 83.1 | 62.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeCleveland StBowling Green
Efficiency
108.3
107.8
118.5
105.1
69.9
68.9
—
—
Shooting
54.2%
51.8%
52.0%
51.9%
37.5%
34.4%
76.2%
72.3%
37.9%
37.0%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
16.5%
15.1%
18.4%
27.0%
28.7%
36.6%
26.9%
9.5%
9.0%
14.4%
9.8%
Style
50.8%
34.2%
33.3%
48.7%
17.7%
19.8%
57.9%
48.5%
36.1%
28.7%
Roster
3.30
2.96
6'3.7"
6'4.4"
82.4%
20.3%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputCleveland St
Returning minutes: 82.4%Returning production: 86.3%
Lost
- Preist Ryan 20.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to Canisius
- Holden Pierre-Louis 14.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg · transferred to Quinnipiac
Added
- Waqo Tessema no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 82% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Bowling Green
Returning minutes: 20.3%Returning production: 18.4%
Lost
- Javontae Campbell 34.1 mpg, 18.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Sam Towns 32.0 mpg, 11.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Thomas 24.3 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Troy Glover II 22.9 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Javon Ruffin 22.8 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mayar Wol 20.0 mpg, 10.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jayden Johnson from SC State · 27.4 mpg, 13.4 ppg last season
- Juan Cranford Jr. from E Kentucky · 25.9 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
- Christ Essandoko from South Carolina · 4.9 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
- Tristan Beckford from South Florida · 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
- Zach Howell no D1 minutes last season
- Talan Staley no D1 minutes last season
Returns 20% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.