CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceWelsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL

Boston U

Efficiency #237

2025-26: 17-17 · 12-9 conf

Northwestern

Efficiency #78

2025-26: 15-19 · 7-16 conf

Mon, Nov 9 · TBD

67.9

win 20%

Projected

77.7

win 80%

No line posted yet.

Model: NU −9.8 · total 145.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Northwestern 66.9, Boston U 65.5 → 64.1 possessions

−9.2

Northwestern offense vs Boston U defense

+6.4

Boston U offense vs Northwestern defense

+0.2

Projected total

145.6

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Northwestern offense vs Boston U defense

+6.4

Boston U offense vs Northwestern defense

−0.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

Northwestern by 9.8

9.8

Boston U side ◂▸ Northwestern side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +9.9 against +9.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Northwestern.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Northwestern is the faster team (65.3, #322 of 365) and Boston U the slower (63.5, #361). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

64.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.6

model

Projected team totals

67.9 / 77.7

Boston U / Northwestern

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.5#357

Boston U

66.9#299

Northwestern

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Northwestern averages 65.3 possessions per 40, Boston U 63.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 63 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageNorthwestern

Where Northwestern scores: ball control

Northwestern turns it over on 13.0% of possessions (#7); Boston U forces turnovers on 13.0% of opponent possessions (#353). Expect about 12.2%, 4.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.6 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageBoston U

Where Boston U scores: shooting

Boston U shoots an effective 57.5% (#11); Northwestern allows 51.0% (#157). Expect about 54.7%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.9 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Boston U, Boston U's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Boston U at about 43.4% of its shots from three, Northwestern about 35.8%.

GlassNorthwestern

Northwestern gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.6% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Northwestern's offense.

Boston U has the ball

OffenseNorthwestern allowsvs D1 avg

57.5% #11

51.0% #157

+4.9 pt/100

17.8% #255

17.5% #119

-1.3 pt/100

28.0% #269

34.7% #332

+0.2 pt/100

31.4% #270

34.8% #172

-0.2 pt/100

73.4% #157

—

+0.1 pt/100

Boston U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.7 pts/100

Northwestern has the ball

OffenseBoston U allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #159

53.6% #288

+2.1 pt/100

13.0% #7

13.0% #353

+5.6 pt/100

28.1% #260

28.0% #65

-1.7 pt/100

33.9% #213

30.5% #73

-0.4 pt/100

75.1% #80

—

+0.2 pt/100

Northwestern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Boston Uoffense vsNorthwesterndefense

Share of shots by zone

Boston U shoots

37.6

5.1

14.0

43.3

Northwestern allows

37.9

6.1

16.5

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.0%#73	60.5%#248	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	54.8%#1	33.6%#38	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.4%#20	38.8%#190	38.0%
Three	38.8%#5	33.4%#145	33.7%

Northwesternoffense vsBoston Udefense

Share of shots by zone

Northwestern shoots

35.0

7.2

23.9

34.0

Boston U allows

39.1

5.1

15.2

40.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.4%#47	54.3%#44	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#233	53.8%#364	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#66	45.4%#352	38.0%
Three	33.0%#232	36.6%#330	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Boston U

−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#298 of 365

Off reb %

28.0%

#269

Def reb %

72.0%

#65

Turnover %

17.8%

#255

Forced TO %

13.0%

#353

FT rate

31.4%

#270

FT allowed

30.5%

#73

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−2.5

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Northwestern

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#140 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#260

Def reb %

65.3%

#332

Turnover %

13.0%

Forced TO %

17.5%

#119

FT rate

33.9%

#213

FT allowed

34.8%

#172

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security+2.6

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+0.1

Northwestern has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#140 of 365) to Boston U’s −2.8 (#298).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Boston U2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
20	Michael McNair	G	Jr	6'5"	34-34	36.1	16.9	5.1	2.1	1.3	61.4%	44.4%	7.3	73.8%	25.5%
2	Chance Gladden	G	Fr	6'4"	33-31	33.4	14.4	3.2	4.5	2.7	52.7%	34.7%	3.0	86.7%	27.9%
6	Sam Hughes	F	Fr	6'6"	34-26	30.1	9.0	3.4	1.3	1.1	52.9%	37.2%	5.4	80.6%	19.5%
7	Azmar Abdullah	G	So	6'3"	34-22	29.6	8.3	3.4	1.5	1.3	53.7%	39.4%	4.7	85.0%	18.3%
14	Ben Defty	F	So	7'0"	33-33	29.4	15.1	6.8	1.9	2.3	69.4%	—	0.0	67.1%	28.1%
21	Donte Tisinger Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	28-0	20.1	6.4	2.0	1.8	1.0	57.6%	36.9%	2.3	62.1%	19.9%
30	Ben Roy	G	Sr	6'0"	12-12	26.8	6.6	1.5	2.5	1.1	64.5%	45.8%	2.0	53.3%	14.6%
3	Malcolm Chimezie	F	Sr	6'8"	14-9	21.4	5.2	5.5	1.1	0.9	63.3%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.7%
32	Quinn Nielsen	F	Jr	6'11"	29-0	8.3	1.3	2.5	0.1	0.4	57.1%	—	0.0	48.1%	12.1%
1	Ethan Okwuosa	G	Sr	6'3"	8-2	19.3	4.4	3.8	1.0	0.5	39.3%	25.0%	2.5	66.7%	19.0%
15	Andrew Bhesania	F	Fr	6'9"	3-0	10.3	7.7	2.3	0.0	0.0	71.4%	44.4%	3.0	100.0%	27.7%
8	Peter Carr	G	So	6'5"	4-0	4.8	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.8	0.0%	21.3%
5	Kyrone Alexander	G	Jr	6'5"	1-1	11.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	50.0%	21.7%
0	Matai Baptiste	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
41	Otto Landrum	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Spencer Joyner	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Northwestern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Jayden Reid	G	Jr	5'10"	34-28	25.8	10.1	1.4	5.0	1.9	44.5%	31.7%	3.0	82.0%	28.3%
8	Tre Singleton	F	Fr	6'8"	34-31	25.0	7.6	4.8	1.5	1.0	50.0%	16.7%	1.6	73.8%	19.5%
44	Angelo Ciaravino	G	So	6'6"	33-18	22.0	6.3	3.9	1.2	0.4	54.6%	25.6%	1.3	58.3%	17.0%
3	Jake West	G	Fr	6'3"	33-17	21.8	5.3	0.8	2.8	1.0	49.4%	36.4%	2.3	77.4%	17.4%
22	Arrinten Page	F	Jr	6'11"	29-16	22.8	10.2	4.5	1.8	1.2	57.2%	25.0%	1.5	65.6%	26.2%
11	Jordan Clayton	G	Jr	6'2"	31-10	18.3	3.9	1.7	1.4	0.5	57.7%	41.0%	2.5	53.3%	12.9%
1	Tyler Kropp	F	Fr	6'9"	31-10	11.9	3.1	2.1	0.3	0.3	46.1%	27.3%	0.4	92.3%	16.6%
10	Max Green	G	So	6'6"	23-4	14.8	4.3	1.8	1.0	0.3	48.5%	33.8%	3.0	60.0%	19.5%
20	Justin Mullins	G	Sr	6'6"	24-3	13.5	3.2	1.6	0.8	0.6	53.2%	32.3%	1.3	50.0%	16.4%
24	K.J. Windham	G	So	6'3"	13-0	13.3	3.8	1.5	1.2	0.2	45.7%	33.3%	2.8	100.0%	17.8%
13	Phoenix Gill	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.2	12.5%	0.0%	0.4	75.0%	18.6%
54	Gus Hurlburt	F	Jr	6'9"	2-0	2.0	2.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	26.4%
43	Blake Smith	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Boston U2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
20	Michael McNair	G	Jr	6'5"	34-34	36.1	16.9	5.1	2.1	1.3	61.4%	44.4%	7.3	73.8%	25.5%
2	Chance Gladden	G	Fr	6'4"	33-31	33.4	14.4	3.2	4.5	2.7	52.7%	34.7%	3.0	86.7%	27.9%
6	Sam Hughes	F	Fr	6'6"	34-26	30.1	9.0	3.4	1.3	1.1	52.9%	37.2%	5.4	80.6%	19.5%
7	Azmar Abdullah	G	So	6'3"	34-22	29.6	8.3	3.4	1.5	1.3	53.7%	39.4%	4.7	85.0%	18.3%
14	Ben Defty	F	So	7'0"	33-33	29.4	15.1	6.8	1.9	2.3	69.4%	—	0.0	67.1%	28.1%
21	Donte Tisinger Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	28-0	20.1	6.4	2.0	1.8	1.0	57.6%	36.9%	2.3	62.1%	19.9%
30	Ben Roy	G	Sr	6'0"	12-12	26.8	6.6	1.5	2.5	1.1	64.5%	45.8%	2.0	53.3%	14.6%
3	Malcolm Chimezie	F	Sr	6'8"	14-9	21.4	5.2	5.5	1.1	0.9	63.3%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.7%
32	Quinn Nielsen	F	Jr	6'11"	29-0	8.3	1.3	2.5	0.1	0.4	57.1%	—	0.0	48.1%	12.1%
1	Ethan Okwuosa	G	Sr	6'3"	8-2	19.3	4.4	3.8	1.0	0.5	39.3%	25.0%	2.5	66.7%	19.0%
15	Andrew Bhesania	F	Fr	6'9"	3-0	10.3	7.7	2.3	0.0	0.0	71.4%	44.4%	3.0	100.0%	27.7%
8	Peter Carr	G	So	6'5"	4-0	4.8	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.8	0.0%	21.3%
5	Kyrone Alexander	G	Jr	6'5"	1-1	11.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	50.0%	21.7%
0	Matai Baptiste	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
41	Otto Landrum	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Spencer Joyner	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Boston U

Against the spread

Season

17-14-2

Home

7-6-1

Road

9-8-1

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +5.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite, 1 push

Over / under

Season

19-13-1

Home

9-4-1

Road

9-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +2.0

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 60–74	−2.0	L−16.0	139.0	U134	98.1	121.0	61.2
Mar 8	NavyAdjEM #104	A	W 73–72	+7.0	W+8.0	136.5	O145	119.1	117.4	61.3
Mar 5	AmericanAdjEM #234	H	W 75–73	−2.0	P0.0	142.5	O148	124.8	121.4	60.1
Feb 28	AmericanAdjEM #234	A	W 68–65	+3.5	W+6.5	142.0	U133	105.7	101.0	64.3
Feb 25	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	H	W 78–63	−8.5	W+6.5	142.0	U141	122.5	99.0	63.7
Feb 22	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 67–70	−2.0	L−5.0	141.0	U137	114.0	119.1	58.8
Feb 16	ColgateAdjEM #223	H	W 85–58	+2.0	W+29.0	146.0	U143	148.4	101.3	57.3
Feb 14	BucknellAdjEM #334	H	W 82–69	−5.5	W+7.5	137.0	O151	125.5	105.6	65.3
Feb 11	ArmyAdjEM #336	A	W 85–68	−3.0	W+14.0	140.0	O153	136.1	108.8	62.5
Feb 7	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	W 78–69	−5.0	W+4.0	146.0	O147	112.0	99.1	69.6

Northwestern

Against the spread

Season

18-16

Home

7-10

Road

6-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.8

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 7 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-19

Home

8-9

Road

4-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.5

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	#18PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 68–81	+13.5	W+0.5	140.0	O149	114.4	136.3	59.4
Mar 11	IndianaAdjEM #45	N	W 74–61	+6.0	W+19.0	142.0	U135	121.9	100.5	60.7
Mar 10	Penn StateAdjEM #194	N	W 76–66	−5.0	W+5.0	144.5	U142	119.6	103.9	63.6
Mar 7	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	A	L 66–67	+4.0	W+3.0	133.5	U133	119.7	121.5	55.1
Mar 4	#15PurdueAdjEM #9	H	L 66–70	+10.5	W+6.5	145.5	U136	114.9	121.8	57.5
Feb 28	OregonAdjEM #143	H	W 63–62	−3.5	L−2.5	142.5	U125	98.9	97.3	63.7
Feb 24	IndianaAdjEM #45	A	W 72–68	+8.5	W+12.5	146.0	U140	117.8	111.3	61.1
Feb 18	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	W 78–74	−8.0	L−4.0	142.5	O152	118.3	112.2	65.9
Feb 14	#7NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 49–68	+13.5	L−5.5	145.5	U117	76.0	105.5	64.5
Feb 11	#2MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 75–87	+15.0	W+3.0	153.5	O162	100.4	116.4	74.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Boston UNorthwestern

Efficiency

111.2

112.5

114.5

106.2

65.5

66.9

—

Shooting

57.5%

51.7%

56.9%

52.9%

38.8%

33.0%

73.4%

75.1%

31.4%

33.9%

Ball control & glass

17.8%

13.0%

17.5%

28.0%

28.1%

28.0%

34.7%

10.8%

7.3%

8.9%

6.4%

Style

43.8%

34.0%

40.7%

44.0%

7.0%

15.6%

53.6%

65.8%

23.5%

31.7%

Roster

2.04

2.14

6'5.6"

6'4.9"

—

82.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Boston U

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Northwestern

Returning minutes: 82.8%Returning production: 74.0%

Lost

Nick Martinelli 34.6 mpg, 22.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Blake Smith no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Nov 7	2025-26	Boston U 52 – 76 Northwestern

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.