CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameWelsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL

Wisconsin

Efficiency #28

2025-26: 24-11 · 16-7 conf

Northwestern

Efficiency #78

2025-26: 15-19 · 7-16 conf

Tue, Dec 1 · TBD

76.4

win 52%

Projected

75.8

win 48%

No line posted yet.

Model: WIS −0.6 · total 152.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Northwestern 66.9, Wisconsin 69.2 → 67.8 possessions

−1.2

Northwestern offense vs Wisconsin defense

+0.3

Wisconsin offense vs Northwestern defense

+4.8

Projected total

152.2

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Northwestern offense vs Wisconsin defense

+0.3

Wisconsin offense vs Northwestern defense

−4.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Wisconsin by 0.6

0.6

Wisconsin side ◂▸ Northwestern side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 152.1 against a projected 152.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Northwestern.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Wisconsin is the faster team (69.0, #151 of 365) and Northwestern the slower (65.3, #322). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.2

model

Projected team totals

76.4 / 75.8

Wisconsin / Northwestern

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.2#107

Wisconsin

66.9#299

Northwestern

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageNorthwestern

Where Northwestern scores: ball control

Northwestern turns it over on 13.0% of possessions (#7); Wisconsin forces turnovers on 14.3% of opponent possessions (#328). Expect about 13.0%, 3.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashWisconsin

Style match: ball movement

Wisconsin assists on 57.3% of its made baskets; Northwestern allows assists on 63.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 62.9% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageWisconsin

Where Wisconsin scores: shooting

Wisconsin shoots an effective 54.5% (#52); Northwestern allows 51.0% (#157). Expect about 53.0%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversWisconsin

Wisconsin protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for Wisconsin's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Wisconsin) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Wisconsin at about 50.0% of its shots from three, Northwestern about 35.8%.

GlassNorthwestern

Northwestern gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.7% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Northwestern's offense.

Wisconsin has the ball

OffenseNorthwestern allowsvs D1 avg

54.5% #52

51.0% #157

+2.4 pt/100

12.8% #4

17.5% #119

+2.2 pt/100

29.1% #232

34.7% #332

+0.7 pt/100

31.5% #267

34.8% #172

-0.2 pt/100

78.8% #6

—

+0.6 pt/100

Wisconsin net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.6 pts/100

Northwestern has the ball

OffenseWisconsin allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #159

51.4% #178

+0.4 pt/100

13.0% #7

14.3% #328

+4.6 pt/100

28.1% #260

28.2% #74

-1.6 pt/100

33.9% #213

29.8% #56

-0.5 pt/100

75.1% #80

—

+0.2 pt/100

Northwestern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Wisconsinoffense vsNorthwesterndefense

Share of shots by zone

Wisconsin shoots

33.3

6.0

9.1

51.6

Northwestern allows

37.9

6.1

16.5

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.8%#99	60.5%#248	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.7%#27	33.6%#38	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.6%#126	38.8%#190	38.0%
Three	36.2%#50	33.4%#145	33.7%

Northwesternoffense vsWisconsindefense

Share of shots by zone

Northwestern shoots

35.0

7.2

23.9

34.0

Wisconsin allows

34.2

7.5

18.0

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.4%#47	58.9%#187	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#233	47.1%#333	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#66	41.4%#286	38.0%
Three	33.0%#232	33.4%#151	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Wisconsin

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#108 of 365

Off reb %

29.1%

#232

Def reb %

71.8%

#74

Turnover %

12.8%

Forced TO %

14.3%

#328

FT rate

31.5%

#267

FT allowed

29.8%

#56

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.8

Ball security+2.7

Forcing turnovers−1.7

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+1.4

Northwestern

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#140 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#260

Def reb %

65.3%

#332

Turnover %

13.0%

Forced TO %

17.5%

#119

FT rate

33.9%

#213

FT allowed

34.8%

#172

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security+2.6

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+0.1

Wisconsin has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#108 of 365) to Northwestern’s +0.9 (#140).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Wisconsin2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Nolan Winter	F	Jr	7'0"	31-30	30.7	13.1	8.5	1.5	0.8	62.6%	32.6%	3.1	74.2%	20.5%
7	Andrew Rohde	G	Sr	6'6"	34-34	26.5	5.7	2.1	2.9	1.1	47.8%	31.8%	3.9	77.8%	15.0%
32	Aleksas Bieliauskas	F	Fr	6'10"	35-28	20.1	4.9	4.4	0.9	0.8	52.8%	34.6%	2.3	63.3%	15.4%
22	Austin Rapp	F	So	6'10"	30-12	23.2	9.7	4.0	1.6	0.8	54.6%	36.3%	5.3	85.4%	22.9%
0	Braeden Carrington	G	Sr	6'5"	34-0	18.0	8.3	2.4	1.1	0.5	57.5%	40.1%	5.1	77.2%	23.9%
5	Jack Janicki	G	So	6'5"	26-1	16.5	2.2	2.0	1.1	0.6	42.3%	27.7%	1.8	60.0%	11.0%
23	Will Garlock	F	Fr	7'0"	30-0	6.7	1.1	1.1	0.7	0.4	72.2%	—	0.0	40.0%	10.3%
13	Hayden Jones	G	Fr	6'6"	27-1	7.2	1.7	1.0	0.4	0.5	63.5%	50.0%	0.1	54.5%	15.2%
4	Zach Kinziger	G	Fr	6'3"	14-0	5.5	1.5	0.3	0.6	0.1	40.0%	25.0%	1.1	50.0%	20.1%
11	Jack Robison	F	So	6'6"	16-0	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.3	93.8%	75.0%	0.3	66.7%	23.7%
18	Riccardo Greppi	F	So	6'10"	14-0	1.3	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	0.0%	28.3%
15	Isaac Gard	G	Sr	6'3"	14-0	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.1	64.3%	50.0%	0.4	100.0%	35.1%
6	Elijah Gray	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Northwestern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Jayden Reid	G	Jr	5'10"	34-28	25.8	10.1	1.4	5.0	1.9	44.5%	31.7%	3.0	82.0%	28.3%
8	Tre Singleton	F	Fr	6'8"	34-31	25.0	7.6	4.8	1.5	1.0	50.0%	16.7%	1.6	73.8%	19.5%
44	Angelo Ciaravino	G	So	6'6"	33-18	22.0	6.3	3.9	1.2	0.4	54.6%	25.6%	1.3	58.3%	17.0%
3	Jake West	G	Fr	6'3"	33-17	21.8	5.3	0.8	2.8	1.0	49.4%	36.4%	2.3	77.4%	17.4%
22	Arrinten Page	F	Jr	6'11"	29-16	22.8	10.2	4.5	1.8	1.2	57.2%	25.0%	1.5	65.6%	26.2%
11	Jordan Clayton	G	Jr	6'2"	31-10	18.3	3.9	1.7	1.4	0.5	57.7%	41.0%	2.5	53.3%	12.9%
1	Tyler Kropp	F	Fr	6'9"	31-10	11.9	3.1	2.1	0.3	0.3	46.1%	27.3%	0.4	92.3%	16.6%
10	Max Green	G	So	6'6"	23-4	14.8	4.3	1.8	1.0	0.3	48.5%	33.8%	3.0	60.0%	19.5%
20	Justin Mullins	G	Sr	6'6"	24-3	13.5	3.2	1.6	0.8	0.6	53.2%	32.3%	1.3	50.0%	16.4%
24	K.J. Windham	G	So	6'3"	13-0	13.3	3.8	1.5	1.2	0.2	45.7%	33.3%	2.8	100.0%	17.8%
13	Phoenix Gill	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.2	12.5%	0.0%	0.4	75.0%	18.6%
54	Gus Hurlburt	F	Jr	6'9"	2-0	2.0	2.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	26.4%
43	Blake Smith	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Wisconsin2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Nolan Winter	F	Jr	7'0"	31-30	30.7	13.1	8.5	1.5	0.8	62.6%	32.6%	3.1	74.2%	20.5%
7	Andrew Rohde	G	Sr	6'6"	34-34	26.5	5.7	2.1	2.9	1.1	47.8%	31.8%	3.9	77.8%	15.0%
32	Aleksas Bieliauskas	F	Fr	6'10"	35-28	20.1	4.9	4.4	0.9	0.8	52.8%	34.6%	2.3	63.3%	15.4%
22	Austin Rapp	F	So	6'10"	30-12	23.2	9.7	4.0	1.6	0.8	54.6%	36.3%	5.3	85.4%	22.9%
0	Braeden Carrington	G	Sr	6'5"	34-0	18.0	8.3	2.4	1.1	0.5	57.5%	40.1%	5.1	77.2%	23.9%
5	Jack Janicki	G	So	6'5"	26-1	16.5	2.2	2.0	1.1	0.6	42.3%	27.7%	1.8	60.0%	11.0%
23	Will Garlock	F	Fr	7'0"	30-0	6.7	1.1	1.1	0.7	0.4	72.2%	—	0.0	40.0%	10.3%
13	Hayden Jones	G	Fr	6'6"	27-1	7.2	1.7	1.0	0.4	0.5	63.5%	50.0%	0.1	54.5%	15.2%
4	Zach Kinziger	G	Fr	6'3"	14-0	5.5	1.5	0.3	0.6	0.1	40.0%	25.0%	1.1	50.0%	20.1%
11	Jack Robison	F	So	6'6"	16-0	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.3	93.8%	75.0%	0.3	66.7%	23.7%
18	Riccardo Greppi	F	So	6'10"	14-0	1.3	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	0.0%	28.3%
15	Isaac Gard	G	Sr	6'3"	14-0	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.1	64.3%	50.0%	0.4	100.0%	35.1%
6	Elijah Gray	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Wisconsin

Against the spread

Season

20-14-1

Home

10-6-1

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

22-13

Home

10-7

Road

8-3

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.1

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#12High PointAdjEM #50	N	L 82–83	−10.0	L−11.0	161.5	O165	112.3	113.7	73.0
Mar 14	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 65–68	+12.5	W+9.5	161.5	U133	96.2	100.7	67.5
Mar 13	#9IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	W 91–88 OT	+8.0	W+11.0	157.0	O179	121.0	117.0	75.2
Mar 12	WashingtonAdjEM #59	N	W 85–82	−6.5	L−3.5	156.5	O167	128.5	124.0	66.2
Mar 7	#15PurdueAdjEM #9	A	W 97–93	+9.5	W+13.5	154.0	O190	147.6	141.5	65.7
Mar 4	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	W 78–45	−14.5	W+18.5	153.5	U123	135.0	77.9	57.8
Feb 28	WashingtonAdjEM #59	A	W 90–73	−2.5	W+14.5	153.5	O163	127.7	103.6	70.5
Feb 25	OregonAdjEM #143	A	L 71–85	−5.5	L−19.5	153.0	O156	102.5	122.8	69.2
Feb 22	IowaAdjEM #22	H	W 84–71	−3.5	W+9.5	147.0	O155	130.5	110.3	64.4
Feb 17	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	A	L 69–86	+1.0	L−16.0	157.5	U155	100.3	125.0	68.8

Northwestern

Against the spread

Season

18-16

Home

7-10

Road

6-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.8

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 7 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-19

Home

8-9

Road

4-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.5

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	#18PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 68–81	+13.5	W+0.5	140.0	O149	114.4	136.3	59.4
Mar 11	IndianaAdjEM #45	N	W 74–61	+6.0	W+19.0	142.0	U135	121.9	100.5	60.7
Mar 10	Penn StateAdjEM #194	N	W 76–66	−5.0	W+5.0	144.5	U142	119.6	103.9	63.6
Mar 7	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	A	L 66–67	+4.0	W+3.0	133.5	U133	119.7	121.5	55.1
Mar 4	#15PurdueAdjEM #9	H	L 66–70	+10.5	W+6.5	145.5	U136	114.9	121.8	57.5
Feb 28	OregonAdjEM #143	H	W 63–62	−3.5	L−2.5	142.5	U125	98.9	97.3	63.7
Feb 24	IndianaAdjEM #45	A	W 72–68	+8.5	W+12.5	146.0	U140	117.8	111.3	61.1
Feb 18	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	W 78–74	−8.0	L−4.0	142.5	O152	118.3	112.2	65.9
Feb 14	#7NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 49–68	+13.5	L−5.5	145.5	U117	76.0	105.5	64.5
Feb 11	#2MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 75–87	+15.0	W+3.0	153.5	O162	100.4	116.4	74.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

WisconsinNorthwestern

Efficiency

118.0

112.5

105.0

106.2

69.2

66.9

—

Shooting

54.5%

51.7%

54.7%

52.9%

36.2%

33.0%

78.8%

75.1%

31.5%

33.9%

Ball control & glass

12.8%

13.0%

14.3%

17.5%

29.1%

28.1%

28.2%

34.7%

6.6%

7.3%

12.5%

6.4%

Style

52.1%

34.0%

36.2%

44.0%

12.9%

15.6%

57.3%

65.8%

28.3%

31.7%

Roster

2.59

2.14

6'8.3"

6'4.9"

68.1%

82.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Wisconsin

Returning minutes: 68.1%Returning production: 58.3%

Lost

John Blackwell 32.8 mpg, 18.6 ppg · transferred to Duke
Nick Boyd 32.0 mpg, 20.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Elijah Gray no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 68% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Northwestern

Returning minutes: 82.8%Returning production: 74.0%

Lost

Nick Martinelli 34.6 mpg, 22.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Blake Smith no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Dec 3	2025-26	Northwestern 73 – 85 Wisconsin

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.