CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceESPNDean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NCACC/SEC Men's Challenge
Arkansas
Efficiency #19
2025-26: 28-9 · 16-5 conf
@
North Carolina
Efficiency #29
2025-26: 24-9 · 12-7 conf
Tue, Dec 1 · 7:30 PM ET
79.6
win 42%
Projected
81.8
win 58%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNC −2.3 · total 161.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: North Carolina 68.7, Arkansas 70.9 → 71.3 possessions
+6.5
North Carolina offense vs Arkansas defense
+2.4
Arkansas offense vs North Carolina defense
+4.3
Projected total
161.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
North Carolina offense vs Arkansas defense
+2.4
Arkansas offense vs North Carolina defense
−4.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
North Carolina by 2.3
2.3
Arkansas side ◂▸ North Carolina side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +2.2 against +2.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Carolina.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arkansas is the faster team (72.8, #13 of 365) and North Carolina the slower (68.8, #162). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
161.4
model
Projected team totals
79.6 / 81.8
Arkansas / North Carolina
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.9#17
Arkansas
68.7#144
North Carolina
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageArkansas
Where Arkansas scores: ball control
Arkansas turns it over on 12.2% of possessions (#1); North Carolina forces turnovers on 13.6% of opponent possessions (#344). Expect about 12.1%, 4.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.7 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
North Carolina averages 68.8 possessions per 40, Arkansas 72.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageNorth Carolina
Where North Carolina scores: ball control
North Carolina turns it over on 13.9% of possessions (#19); Arkansas forces turnovers on 15.6% of opponent possessions (#246). Expect about 14.4%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseArkansas
Arkansas's shot-blocking
Arkansas ranks #25 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of North Carolina's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
ClashArkansas
Strength vs strength: eFG%
Arkansas (#16 in eFG%) against North Carolina (#44 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.8%. Historically Arkansas's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.58 vs 0.51).
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Arkansas) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Arkansas at about 32.7% of its shots from three, North Carolina about 40.8%.
Arkansas has the ball
OffenseNorth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
56.4% #16
48.3% #44
+2.1 pt/100
12.2% #1
13.6% #344
+5.7 pt/100
32.0% #121
27.8% #59
-0.1 pt/100
35.9% #155
23.8% #3
-0.8 pt/100
75.1% #77
—
+0.2 pt/100
Arkansas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.2 pts/100
North Carolina has the ball
OffenseArkansas allowsvs D1 avg
54.3% #57
51.8% #201
+2.9 pt/100
13.9% #19
15.6% #246
+2.9 pt/100
31.2% #159
30.9% #197
+0.5 pt/100
37.1% #127
31.2% #87
-0.2 pt/100
68.2% #322
—
-0.4 pt/100
North Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersArkansasoffense vsNorth Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
Arkansas shoots
41.8
6.3
19.1
32.8
North Carolina allows
33.9
7.1
22.1
36.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.7%#10 | 55.8%#79 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.3%#325 | 41.1%#211 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.3%#258 | 33.5%#38 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.2%#16 | 34.7%#234 | 33.7% |
North Carolinaoffense vsArkansasdefense
Share of shots by zone
North Carolina shoots
37.1
7.1
14.0
41.8
Arkansas allows
40.1
6.9
15.3
37.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.0%#22 | 62.6%#313 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.3%#114 | 45.4%#308 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.1%#51 | 34.7%#66 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.2%#159 | 31.8%#54 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersArkansas
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#35 of 365
Off reb %
32.0%
#121
Def reb %
69.1%
#197
Turnover %
12.2%
#1
Forced TO %
15.6%
#246
FT rate
35.9%
#155
FT allowed
31.2%
#87
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+3.2
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.0
North Carolina
+4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#31 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#159
Def reb %
72.2%
#59
Turnover %
13.9%
#19
Forced TO %
13.6%
#344
FT rate
37.1%
#127
FT allowed
23.8%
#3
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+2.0
Forcing turnovers−2.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+2.9
North Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.5 (#31 of 365) to Arkansas’s +4.1 (#35).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Arkansas2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Billy Richmond III | G | Jr | 6'7" | 37-19 | 27.6 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 25.9% | 1.6 | 78.4% | 20.6% | |
| 5 | Jeremiah Wilkinsonat Georgia | G | Jr | 6'1" | 31-21 | 25.6 | 17.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 50.6% | 35.7% | 7.1 | 78.6% | 36.1% | |
| 21 | Cooper Bowserat Furman | F | Sr | 6'11" | 25-22 | 29.6 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 76.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 62.2% | 21.4% | |
| 30 | Isaiah Sealy | F | So | 6'7" | 19-0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 21.1% | |
| 2 | Amere Brown | G | So | 5'9" | 7-0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 25.0% | 26.3% | |
| 4 | Ayden Kelley | G | Jr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 14.4% | |
| 99 | Paulo Semedo | F | So | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Abdou Toure | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Caleb Ourigou | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Davion Thompson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Ilia Frolov | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | JJ Andrews | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Jordan Smith Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Maper Maker | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Miikka Muurinen | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Cooper Bowser (from Furman), Jeremiah Wilkinson (from Georgia)
North Carolina2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrence Brownat Utah | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 31.5 | 19.9 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 48.6% | 32.7% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 38.7% | |
| 17 | Neo Avdalasat Virginia Tech | G | So | 6'9" | 31-31 | 31.7 | 12.1 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 46.0% | 31.4% | 5.0 | 67.3% | 26.9% | |
| 14 | Angelo Brizziat Buffalo | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 29.8 | 14.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 56.3% | 37.3% | 4.2 | 83.4% | 27.4% | |
| 15 | Jarin Stevenson | F | Sr | 6'10" | 33-25 | 25.8 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 54.1% | 29.5% | 2.7 | 74.2% | 17.5% | |
| 54 | Cameron Fensat South Dakota | C | Sr | 7'0" | 32-32 | 25.3 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 57.9% | — | 0.0 | 58.5% | 31.1% | |
| 3 | Matt Ableat NC State | G | So | 6'5" | 34-0 | 21.7 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 51.4% | 35.5% | 4.1 | 79.6% | 24.0% | |
| 4 | Jaydon Young | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-4 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 40.8% | 28.3% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 18.4% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Denis | G | So | 6'4" | 10-0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 64.3% | 50.0% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 26.4% | |
| 32 | Evan Smith | G | Sr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 34.4% | |
| 99 | John Holbrook | F | Jr | 6'8" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 13.7% | |
| 35 | Cade Bennermanat Northwestern | C | So | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Alex Samodurov | F | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Kevin Thomas | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Malloy Smith | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Maximo Adams | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Sayon Keita | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Matt Able (from NC State), Neo Avdalas (from Virginia Tech), Cade Bennerman (from Northwestern), Angelo Brizzi (from Buffalo), Terrence Brown (from Utah), Cameron Fens (from South Dakota)
Arkansas2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Billy Richmond III | G | Jr | 6'7" | 37-19 | 27.6 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 25.9% | 1.6 | 78.4% | 20.6% | |
| 5 | Jeremiah Wilkinsonat Georgia | G | Jr | 6'1" | 31-21 | 25.6 | 17.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 50.6% | 35.7% | 7.1 | 78.6% | 36.1% | |
| 21 | Cooper Bowserat Furman | F | Sr | 6'11" | 25-22 | 29.6 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 76.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 62.2% | 21.4% | |
| 30 | Isaiah Sealy | F | So | 6'7" | 19-0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 21.1% | |
| 2 | Amere Brown | G | So | 5'9" | 7-0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 25.0% | 26.3% | |
| 4 | Ayden Kelley | G | Jr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 14.4% | |
| 99 | Paulo Semedo | F | So | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Abdou Toure | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Caleb Ourigou | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Davion Thompson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Ilia Frolov | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | JJ Andrews | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Jordan Smith Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Maper Maker | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Miikka Muurinen | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Cooper Bowser (from Furman), Jeremiah Wilkinson (from Georgia)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Arkansas
Against the spread
Season
23-14
Home
13-5
Road
6-4
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −0.7
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
21-15-1
Home
11-6-1
Road
4-6
Last 10
8-2
avg vs total +14.2
Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | #1Arizona | N | L 88–109 | +8.0 | L−13.0 | 165.5 | O197 | 110.1 | 136.4 | 79.9 |
| Mar 21 | #12High Point | N | W 94–88 | −12.0 | L−6.0 | 170.5 | O182 | 121.5 | 113.8 | 77.4 |
| Mar 19 | #13Hawai'i | N | W 97–78 | −15.0 | W+4.0 | 158.0 | O175 | 126.5 | 101.8 | 76.7 |
| Mar 15 | #22Vanderbilt | N | W 86–75 | +2.0 | W+13.0 | 164.5 | U161 | 122.6 | 107.0 | 70.1 |
| Mar 14 | Ole Miss | N | W 93–90 OT | −8.5 | L−5.5 | 158.5 | O183 | 119.7 | 115.8 | 77.7 |
| Mar 13 | Oklahoma | N | W 82–79 | −6.0 | L−3.0 | 167.0 | U161 | 117.2 | 112.9 | 70.0 |
| Mar 7 | Missouri | A | W 88–84 OT | +2.5 | W+6.5 | 161.5 | O172 | 115.1 | 109.9 | 76.4 |
| Mar 4 | Texas | H | W 105–85 | −7.0 | W+13.0 | 164.5 | O190 | 132.8 | 107.5 | 79.0 |
| Feb 28 | #7Florida | A | L 77–111 | +10.5 | L−23.5 | 170.0 | O188 | 95.3 | 137.4 | 80.8 |
| Feb 25 | Texas A&M | H | W 99–84 | −7.5 | W+7.5 | 170.0 | O183 | 128.1 | 108.7 | 77.3 |
North Carolina
Against the spread
Season
19-13-1
Home
12-5-1
Road
5-5
Last 10
6-3-1
avg cover −0.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-19
Home
6-12
Road
5-5
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −3.1
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #11VCU | N | L 78–82 OT | −2.5 | L−6.5 | 151.0 | O160 | 101.9 | 107.1 | 76.5 |
| Mar 12 | Clemson | N | L 79–80 | +1.5 | W+0.5 | 140.5 | O159 | 114.5 | 115.9 | 69.0 |
| Mar 7 | #1Duke | A | L 61–76 | +18.0 | W+3.0 | 147.0 | U137 | 93.8 | 116.9 | 65.0 |
| Mar 3 | Clemson | H | W 67–63 | −2.5 | W+1.5 | 142.0 | U130 | 102.3 | 96.2 | 65.5 |
| Feb 28 | Virginia Tech | H | W 89–82 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 150.0 | O171 | 128.5 | 118.4 | 69.2 |
| Feb 23 | #24Louisville | H | W 77–74 | +3.5 | W+6.5 | 163.0 | U151 | 115.6 | 111.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 21 | Syracuse | A | W 77–64 | +1.5 | W+14.5 | 154.5 | U141 | 113.3 | 94.2 | 67.9 |
| Feb 17 | NC State | A | L 58–82 | +7.5 | L−16.5 | 155.5 | U140 | 90.2 | 127.6 | 64.3 |
| Feb 14 | Pitt | H | W 79–65 | −11.5 | W+2.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 120.7 | 99.3 | 65.4 |
| Feb 10 | Miami | A | L 66–75 | −1.0 | L−10.0 | 156.5 | U141 | 95.2 | 108.2 | 69.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeArkansasNorth Carolina
Efficiency
120.3
115.5
104.8
102.6
70.9
68.7
—
—
Shooting
56.4%
54.3%
56.0%
56.5%
38.2%
34.2%
75.1%
68.2%
35.9%
37.1%
Ball control & glass
12.2%
13.9%
15.6%
13.6%
32.0%
31.2%
30.9%
27.8%
6.7%
8.3%
6.4%
9.1%
Style
33.0%
42.2%
47.6%
42.6%
20.9%
14.4%
53.1%
57.2%
28.5%
28.4%
Roster
3.22
3.37
6'6.3"
6'6.7"
15.7%
17.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputArkansas
Returning minutes: 15.7%Returning production: 15.1%
Lost
- Darius Acuff Jr. 34.3 mpg, 22.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trevon Brazile 30.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Meleek Thomas 30.5 mpg, 15.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- D.J. Wagner 22.3 mpg, 7.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Malique Ewin 21.0 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nick Pringle 17.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jeremiah Wilkinson from Georgia · 24.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg last season
- Cooper Bowser from Furman · 21.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg last season
- Miikka Muurinen no D1 minutes last season
- Caleb Ourigou no D1 minutes last season
- Maper Maker no D1 minutes last season
- Paulo Semedo no D1 minutes last season
Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
North Carolina
Returning minutes: 17.0%Returning production: 13.2%
Lost
- Henri Veesaar 29.5 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Luka Bogavac 24.4 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Seth Trimble 23.6 mpg, 10.2 ppg · transferred to Louisville
- Caleb Wilson 22.9 mpg, 14.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Derek Dixon 22.3 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kyan Evans 17.6 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Terrence Brown from Utah · 31.5 mpg, 19.9 ppg last season
- Neo Avdalas from Virginia Tech · 30.8 mpg, 11.7 ppg last season
- Angelo Brizzi from Buffalo · 29.8 mpg, 14.5 ppg last season
- Cameron Fens from South Dakota · 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
- Matt Able from NC State · 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
- Kevin Thomas no D1 minutes last season
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.