CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMoody Coliseum (Abilene), Abilene, TX
Pepperdine
Efficiency #307
2025-26: 9-23 · 4-15 conf
@
Abilene Chrstn
Efficiency #263
2025-26: 14-19 · 6-14 conf
Tue, Dec 1 · TBD
69.3
win 31%
Projected
75.2
win 69%
No line posted yet.
Model: ACU −5.9 · total 144.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Abilene Chrstn 68.4, Pepperdine 69.0 → 69.1 possessions
+1.6
Abilene Chrstn offense vs Pepperdine defense
−1.7
Pepperdine offense vs Abilene Chrstn defense
−3.6
Projected total
144.5
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Abilene Chrstn offense vs Pepperdine defense
−1.7
Pepperdine offense vs Abilene Chrstn defense
+3.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Abilene Chrstn by 5.9
5.9
Pepperdine side ◂▸ Abilene Chrstn side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Abilene Chrstn.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Pepperdine is the faster team (69.5, #116 of 365) and Abilene Chrstn the slower (68.9, #153). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
144.5
model
Projected team totals
69.3 / 75.2
Pepperdine / Abilene Chrstn
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#124
Pepperdine
68.4#177
Abilene Chrstn

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantagePepperdine
Where Pepperdine struggles: ball control
Pepperdine turns it over on 18.3% of possessions (#289); Abilene Chrstn forces turnovers on 23.4% of opponent possessions (#2). Expect about 21.9%, 5.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.3 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseAbilene Chrstn
Abilene Chrstn's ball-hawking
Abilene Chrstn ranks #3 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.9% of Pepperdine's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
AdvantageAbilene Chrstn
Where Abilene Chrstn struggles: ball control
Abilene Chrstn turns it over on 20.8% of possessions (#356); Pepperdine forces turnovers on 16.5% of opponent possessions (#182). Expect about 18.9%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Abilene Chrstn, Abilene Chrstn's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Pepperdine at about 33.2% of its shots from three, Abilene Chrstn about 34.7%.
ClashAbilene Chrstn
Strength vs strength: free-throw rate
Abilene Chrstn (#34 in free-throw rate) against Pepperdine (#35 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.3%. Historically Pepperdine's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).
Pepperdine has the ball
OffenseAbilene Chrstn allowsvs D1 avg
47.6% #323
56.5% #352
+0.8 pt/100
18.3% #289
23.4% #2
-6.3 pt/100
29.1% #234
29.1% #113
-0.9 pt/100
33.8% #216
53.5% #365
+1.3 pt/100
75.8% #58
—
+0.3 pt/100
Pepperdine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.9 pts/100
Abilene Chrstn has the ball
OffensePepperdine allowsvs D1 avg
47.5% #326
54.2% #306
-1.0 pt/100
20.8% #356
16.5% #182
-2.6 pt/100
31.0% #164
34.0% #318
+1.3 pt/100
41.7% #34
28.5% #35
-0.1 pt/100
70.4% #258
—
-0.2 pt/100
Abilene Chrstn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Pepperdineoffense vsAbilene Chrstndefense
Share of shots by zone
Pepperdine shoots
Abilene Chrstn allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.0%#29860.3%#24358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.2%#17039.3%#16339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.5%#25239.3%#21438.0%
Three31.4%#31040.9%#36533.7%
Abilene Chrstnoffense vsPepperdinedefense
Share of shots by zone
Abilene Chrstn shoots
Pepperdine allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.7%#28060.5%#25258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.2%#30049.1%#34939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.1%#10839.6%#22438.0%
Three31.0%#31935.5%#27633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Pepperdine
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#245 of 365
Off reb %
29.1%
#234
Def reb %
66.0%
#318
Turnover %
18.3%
#289
Forced TO %
16.5%
#182
FT rate
33.8%
#216
FT allowed
28.5%
#35
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.7
Abilene Chrstn
−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#199 of 365
Off reb %
31.0%
#164
Def reb %
70.9%
#113
Turnover %
20.8%
#356
Forced TO %
23.4%
#2
FT rate
41.7%
#34
FT allowed
53.5%
#365
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−2.8
Forcing turnovers+4.6
Foul shots drawn+1.7
Foul shots allowed−4.7

Abilene Chrstn has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.5 (#199 of 365) to Pepperdine’s −1.3 (#245).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Pepperdine2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Pepperdine's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Styles PhippsGSo6'2"32-3234.013.45.95.22.845.1%27.0%2.378.5%26.7%
3Aaron ClarkGSo6'4"32-2632.315.33.42.72.850.0%36.1%5.276.9%29.9%
23Javon CooleyGSr6'5"32-2730.111.44.71.11.448.0%29.5%4.383.2%23.3%
35Danilo DozicCSo6'10"27-2631.311.32.71.51.352.2%36.3%4.677.0%21.3%
18Yonatan LevyFSo6'10"32-2820.55.24.21.71.451.1%31.9%1.576.2%17.3%
4Pavle StosicFSo6'9"31-1216.23.63.80.70.648.9%20.0%0.854.3%15.2%
14Stefan CicicCFr7'0"31-512.84.62.70.40.954.6%23.1%0.455.8%22.4%
77Luka VudragovicGFr6'6"31-412.03.71.20.30.545.3%24.6%2.284.6%21.3%
1David MagerGJr6'4"31-010.64.40.90.20.249.2%39.2%1.670.8%24.1%
33Nikola RadovanovicFFr6'9"17-05.01.41.10.40.253.6%25.0%0.266.7%16.0%
7Vladimir SudarFFr6'5"17-04.41.00.40.40.328.1%16.7%0.466.7%20.2%
9Pasha ShemiraniFFr6'5"17-04.10.50.60.10.134.6%33.3%0.5—11.6%
24Preston PhillipsFSr6'8"3-011.70.72.70.70.750.0%0.0%0.3—6.7%
25Anto BalianGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Ty VirgilGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Yassine GharramGSr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
PepperdineAbilene Chrstn
Efficiency
103.9
102.6
111.8
107.7
69.0
68.4
—
—
Shooting
47.6%
47.5%
48.0%
48.0%
31.4%
31.0%
75.8%
70.4%
33.8%
41.7%
Ball control & glass
18.3%
20.8%
16.5%
23.4%
29.1%
31.0%
34.0%
29.1%
10.9%
12.3%
10.7%
12.6%
Style
39.2%
32.8%
40.5%
44.0%
9.4%
16.5%
56.2%
54.1%
27.8%
37.1%
Roster
2.21
3.22
6'6.3"
6'4.5"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Pepperdine
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Pepperdine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Abilene Chrstn
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Abilene Chrstn's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Tue, Dec 22025-26Abilene Chrstn 71 – 63 Pepperdine

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.