CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCarnesecca Arena, Queens, NY
Columbia
Efficiency #166
2025-26: 16-12 · 5-9 conf
@
St John's
Efficiency #16
2025-26: 30-7 · 21-2 conf
Tue, Dec 1 · TBD
67.2
win 10%
Projected
82.0
win 90%
No line posted yet.
Model: SJU −14.8 · total 149.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: St John's 69.7, Columbia 68.0 → 69.4 possessions
+2.3
St John's offense vs Columbia defense
+4.7
Columbia offense vs St John's defense
−6.0
Projected total
149.2
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
St John's offense vs Columbia defense
+4.7
Columbia offense vs St John's defense
+6.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
St John's by 14.8
14.8
Columbia side ◂▸ St John's side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +14.7 against +14.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help St John's.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, St John's is the faster team (70.6, #74 of 365) and Columbia the slower (67.1, #236). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.2
model
Projected team totals
67.2 / 82.0
Columbia / St John's
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#211
Columbia
69.7#70
St John's

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageColumbia
Where Columbia struggles: ball control
Columbia turns it over on 19.3% of possessions (#333); St John's forces turnovers on 19.1% of opponent possessions (#44). Expect about 19.7%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSt John's
Where St John's scores: ball control
St John's turns it over on 14.4% of possessions (#39); Columbia forces turnovers on 15.0% of opponent possessions (#288). Expect about 14.3%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.
GlassColumbia
Columbia owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.1% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Columbia's offense.
ClashSt John's
Style match: ball movement
St John's assists on 57.9% of its made baskets; Columbia allows assists on 57.9% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 59.6% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (St John's's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Columbia at about 33.8% of its shots from three, St John's about 33.8%.
ClashSt John's
Style match: 3-point volume
St John's rarely shoots threes (35.2% of its shots); Columbia runs teams off the line (36.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.8% — both habits push the same way.
Columbia has the ball
OffenseSt John's allowsvs D1 avg
53.5% #83
47.5% #32
-0.9 pt/100
19.3% #333
19.1% #44
-3.6 pt/100
36.1% #23
29.9% #154
+2.3 pt/100
28.6% #337
31.8% #100
-0.6 pt/100
70.1% #271
—
-0.2 pt/100
Columbia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100
St John's has the ball
OffenseColumbia allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #192
51.2% #168
-0.3 pt/100
14.4% #39
15.0% #288
+3.0 pt/100
35.2% #43
27.2% #42
+1.1 pt/100
40.2% #57
33.5% #140
+0.2 pt/100
72.2% #200
—
-0.0 pt/100
St John's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Columbiaoffense vsSt John'sdefense
Share of shots by zone
Columbia shoots
St John's allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.8%#16753.8%#3858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.0%#22233.6%#3639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.3%#13739.0%#20138.0%
Three35.9%#6131.3%#3933.7%
St John'soffense vsColumbiadefense
Share of shots by zone
St John's shoots
Columbia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.5%#17755.9%#8458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.1%#30235.6%#7739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.2%#21542.1%#30838.0%
Three33.5%#19635.2%#25833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Columbia
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#241 of 365
Off reb %
36.1%
#23
Def reb %
72.8%
#42
Turnover %
19.3%
#333
Forced TO %
15.0%
#288
FT rate
28.6%
#337
FT allowed
33.5%
#140
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.8
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+0.4
St John's
+7.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#6 of 365
Off reb %
35.2%
#43
Def reb %
70.1%
#154
Turnover %
14.4%
#39
Forced TO %
19.1%
#44
FT rate
40.2%
#57
FT allowed
31.8%
#100
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.9

St John's has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.2 (#6 of 365) to Columbia’s −1.2 (#241).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Columbia2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Columbia's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Kenny NolandGSr6'2"28-2833.117.13.43.72.554.5%37.5%6.992.1%30.7%
3Blair ThompsonFSr6'8"28-2831.011.44.81.10.859.9%40.9%3.964.1%19.5%
14Mason RitterFSo6'9"28-2824.47.35.11.61.855.4%14.3%0.566.1%19.6%
24Miles FranklinGFr6'5"26-2223.99.54.20.91.047.9%22.9%2.764.9%25.9%
4Gerard O'KeefeGSo6'3"27-421.68.51.91.00.660.8%42.4%3.769.6%20.6%
10Connor IgoeFFr6'7"28-619.88.35.63.01.953.8%34.1%1.663.2%28.0%
12Ryan SoulisFSo6'10"26-1720.05.84.61.51.351.2%21.4%1.163.3%19.8%
7Hampton SandersGJr6'0"28-015.34.22.02.31.249.5%37.0%1.674.3%19.5%
22Richard NwekeFJr6'7"20-09.13.02.40.50.351.1%—0.060.9%20.3%
23Zine Eddine BedriFSr6'10"5-524.412.87.42.24.258.7%44.4%1.858.8%37.4%
6Leland ColemanFSo6'7"15-05.21.31.50.30.233.3%0.0%0.342.9%22.5%
1Avery BrownGSr6'4"3-215.04.32.00.32.050.0%75.0%1.350.0%25.3%
8Josiah CunninghamGSo6'2"5-06.61.80.60.20.844.4%0.0%0.633.3%24.4%
0Edwin BaiGFr6'2"4-02.00.00.00.00.00.0%0.0%0.3—7.0%
21Dan VesseyGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Nicolo RomanelliGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Nigel ClarksonFSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
ColumbiaSt John's
Efficiency
109.0
115.2
108.6
99.2
68.0
69.7
—
—
Shooting
53.5%
51.1%
53.2%
51.5%
35.9%
33.5%
70.1%
72.2%
28.6%
40.2%
Ball control & glass
19.3%
14.4%
15.0%
19.1%
36.1%
35.2%
27.2%
29.9%
10.1%
8.6%
9.9%
10.0%
Style
37.5%
35.2%
47.0%
45.0%
9.9%
16.7%
54.3%
57.9%
32.6%
31.0%
Roster
2.59
2.24
6'5.7"
6'4.7"
—
39.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Columbia
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Columbia's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

St John's
Returning minutes: 39.3%Returning production: 32.0%
Lost
  • Zuby Ejiofor 30.1 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Bryce Hopkins 28.8 mpg, 13.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Oziyah Sellers 28.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Dillon Mitchell 28.1 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Sadiku Ibine Ayo 6.2 mpg, 1.4 ppg · transferred to Iona
Added
  • Imran Suljanovic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 39% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.