CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJenny Craig Pavilion, San Diego, CA
Hawai'i
Efficiency #96
2025-26: 24-9 · 16-6 conf
@
San Diego
Efficiency #269
2025-26: 12-21 · 6-14 conf
Tue, Dec 1 · TBD
76.0
win 59%
Projected
73.2
win 41%
No line posted yet.
Model: HAW −2.8 · total 149.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: San Diego 68.8, Hawai'i 69.9 → 70.4 possessions
+4.5
San Diego offense vs Hawai'i defense
−5.1
Hawai'i offense vs San Diego defense
+1.7
Projected total
149.2
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
San Diego offense vs Hawai'i defense
−5.1
Hawai'i offense vs San Diego defense
−1.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Hawai'i by 2.8
2.8
Hawai'i side ◂▸ San Diego side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.3 against a projected 149.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help San Diego.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Hawai'i is the faster team (72.4, #17 of 365) and San Diego the slower (68.8, #159). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.2
model
Projected team totals
76.0 / 73.2
Hawai'i / San Diego
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.9#56
Hawai'i
68.8#136
San Diego

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSan Diego
Where San Diego struggles: shooting
San Diego shoots an effective 51.2% (#185); Hawai'i allows 46.8% (#19). Expect about 49.0%, 2.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
San Diego averages 68.8 possessions per 40, Hawai'i 72.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageHawai'i
Where Hawai'i struggles: ball control
Hawai'i turns it over on 18.8% of possessions (#314); San Diego forces turnovers on 18.9% of opponent possessions (#55). Expect about 19.3%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.
GlassSan Diego
San Diego gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.3% is worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions against San Diego's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Hawai'i's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Hawai'i at about 40.1% of its shots from three, San Diego about 38.2%.
GlassHawai'i
Hawai'i owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.0% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Hawai'i's offense.
Hawai'i has the ball
OffenseSan Diego allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #148
54.7% #320
+3.1 pt/100
18.8% #314
18.9% #55
-3.1 pt/100
31.3% #154
34.5% #328
+1.6 pt/100
41.4% #38
38.8% #281
+0.7 pt/100
73.5% #152
—
+0.1 pt/100
Hawai'i net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.3 pts/100
San Diego has the ball
OffenseHawai'i allowsvs D1 avg
51.2% #185
46.8% #19
-3.3 pt/100
17.5% #237
16.8% #169
-0.5 pt/100
28.1% #262
25.3% #11
-2.5 pt/100
25.8% #358
35.6% #200
-0.5 pt/100
74.7% #95
—
+0.2 pt/100
San Diego net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Hawai'ioffense vsSan Diegodefense
Share of shots by zone
Hawai'i shoots
San Diego allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.6%#13963.2%#32858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.2%#7550.0%#35439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.4%#30347.3%#36138.0%
Three31.7%#29832.7%#10033.7%
San Diegooffense vsHawai'idefense
Share of shots by zone
San Diego shoots
Hawai'i allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.6%#17453.5%#3258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.9%#27045.3%#30739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16835.4%#8738.0%
Three34.6%#14130.3%#1333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Hawai'i
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#88 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#154
Def reb %
74.7%
#11
Turnover %
18.8%
#314
Forced TO %
16.8%
#169
FT rate
41.4%
#38
FT allowed
35.6%
#200
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+1.7
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed−0.1
San Diego
−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#334 of 365
Off reb %
28.1%
#262
Def reb %
65.5%
#328
Turnover %
17.5%
#237
Forced TO %
18.9%
#55
FT rate
25.8%
#358
FT allowed
38.8%
#281
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers+1.5
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.9

Hawai'i has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#88 of 365) to San Diego’s −4.3 (#334).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Hawai'i2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Hunter EricksonGSr6'3"33-3331.48.43.83.92.453.8%35.0%3.571.0%17.3%
4Dre BullockGSr6'6"33-3328.413.85.91.91.947.3%26.1%4.175.9%29.2%
14Harry RouhliadeffFSr6'9"31-3025.510.75.01.41.560.6%39.8%2.880.8%21.5%
5Gytis NemeiksaFSr6'8"33-323.89.24.81.01.148.7%27.6%2.675.8%22.3%
6Isaac FinlinsonFJr6'8"33-1622.79.23.60.81.257.0%39.1%2.665.7%21.8%
7Isaiah KerrGJr6'3"31-020.76.42.41.41.048.2%27.3%2.870.7%19.1%
30Aaron Hunkin-ClaytorGSo6'3"17-1728.26.02.83.91.948.2%31.0%1.763.6%15.6%
10Yacine ToumiFSr6'10"30-010.34.32.50.40.858.1%—0.058.1%23.9%
8AJ EconomouGSo6'5"18-05.91.50.70.10.535.5%18.2%1.255.6%22.4%
9Jalen MyersFSr6'8"7-08.92.90.90.60.335.0%0.0%0.460.0%23.7%
2Hunter CarterGFr6'5"12-04.61.20.80.20.434.4%33.3%0.860.0%23.5%
1Tanner CuffGSr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Hawai'iSan Diego
Efficiency
107.3
106.6
103.1
112.0
69.9
68.8
—
—
Shooting
52.0%
51.2%
54.9%
50.8%
31.7%
34.6%
73.5%
74.7%
41.4%
25.8%
Ball control & glass
18.8%
17.5%
16.8%
18.9%
31.3%
28.1%
25.3%
34.5%
10.7%
10.0%
8.7%
10.1%
Style
39.8%
43.7%
46.1%
39.6%
13.6%
15.1%
49.8%
59.1%
32.6%
39.6%
Roster
3.54
3.00
6'6"
6'4.7"
89.5%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Hawai'i
Returning minutes: 89.5%Returning production: 81.9%
Lost
  • Isaac Johnson 21.2 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Tanner Cuff no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

San Diego
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted San Diego's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.