CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

Wagner

Efficiency #285

2025-26: 14-17 · 9-11 conf

Marquette

Efficiency #100

2025-26: 12-20 · 7-14 conf

Tue, Dec 1 · TBD

67.5

win 18%

Projected

78.3

win 82%

No line posted yet.

Model: MARQ −10.8 · total 145.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Marquette 69.5, Wagner 67.0 → 68.3 possessions

−0.1

Marquette offense vs Wagner defense

+2.3

Wagner offense vs Marquette defense

−4.6

Projected total

145.7

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Marquette offense vs Wagner defense

+2.3

Wagner offense vs Marquette defense

+4.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Marquette by 10.8

10.8

Wagner side ◂▸ Marquette side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.8 against a projected 145.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marquette.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marquette is the faster team (70.1, #91 of 365) and Wagner the slower (65.3, #323). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.7

model

Projected team totals

67.5 / 78.3

Wagner / Marquette

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.0#285

Wagner

69.5#81

Marquette

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageWagner

Where Wagner struggles: ball control

Wagner turns it over on 18.5% of possessions (#301); Marquette forces turnovers on 19.3% of opponent possessions (#38). Expect about 19.4%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseMarquette

Marquette's ball-hawking

Marquette ranks #8 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.4% of Wagner's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

GlassWagner

Wagner owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.1% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Wagner's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Wagner) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Wagner at about 36.8% of its shots from three, Marquette about 39.3%.

AdvantageMarquette

Where Marquette scores: ball control

Marquette turns it over on 16.0% of possessions (#144); Wagner forces turnovers on 14.9% of opponent possessions (#294). Expect about 15.2%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.

Wagner has the ball

OffenseMarquette allowsvs D1 avg

49.6% #262

50.6% #131

-1.9 pt/100

18.5% #301

19.3% #38

-3.2 pt/100

32.8% #96

34.7% #331

+2.3 pt/100

32.3% #252

32.0% #104

-0.4 pt/100

72.6% #184

—

+0.0 pt/100

Wagner net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100

Marquette has the ball

OffenseWagner allowsvs D1 avg

50.5% #215

50.4% #123

-1.3 pt/100

16.0% #144

14.9% #294

+1.9 pt/100

29.7% #216

29.6% #139

-0.5 pt/100

32.8% #243

40.8% #309

+0.3 pt/100

67.5% #332

—

-0.4 pt/100

Marquette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Wagneroffense vsMarquettedefense

Share of shots by zone

Wagner shoots

40.3

7.6

16.3

35.8

Marquette allows

39.3

4.7

16.5

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.3%#359	60.9%#264	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.0%#64	36.3%#95	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.0%#109	35.5%#88	38.0%
Three	36.6%#36	32.7%#104	33.7%

Marquetteoffense vsWagnerdefense

Share of shots by zone

Marquette shoots

46.1

4.0

7.9

42.0

Wagner allows

41.2

6.9

15.7

36.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.0%#238	53.5%#31	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.6%#161	46.5%#326	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.3%#306	37.5%#141	38.0%
Three	31.7%#297	34.3%#202	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Wagner

−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#312 of 365

Off reb %

32.8%

#96

Def reb %

70.4%

#139

Turnover %

18.5%

#301

Forced TO %

14.9%

#294

FT rate

32.3%

#252

FT allowed

40.8%

#309

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed−1.4

Marquette

+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#137 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#216

Def reb %

65.3%

#331

Turnover %

16.0%

#144

Forced TO %

19.3%

#38

FT rate

32.8%

#243

FT allowed

32.0%

#104

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers+1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Marquette has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#137 of 365) to Wagner’s −3.4 (#312).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Wagner2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Wagner's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Nick Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	29-22	32.1	14.9	3.6	2.5	2.7	47.1%	28.3%	3.7	82.6%	31.7%
7	Eddie Placer	G	Jr	6'5"	30-14	25.9	8.5	2.4	1.3	1.1	51.1%	39.0%	4.5	77.8%	21.1%
9	Jaden Baker	G	Sr	6'2"	24-24	31.8	9.3	3.6	3.2	2.1	45.6%	35.4%	4.0	77.8%	22.2%
4	John Awoke	G	Jr	6'3"	29-10	26.2	7.1	3.0	2.0	1.4	48.7%	36.3%	3.5	78.6%	19.6%
22	Binael Basil	F	So	6'7"	30-21	22.7	8.9	6.1	1.1	1.5	57.3%	31.3%	0.5	56.4%	24.5%
10	Bryan Akanmu	F	Jr	6'6"	31-21	20.3	6.2	3.9	1.4	1.5	48.2%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	23.0%
2	Travis Gray	G	Sr	6'5"	21-12	21.5	8.7	5.6	0.5	0.8	49.3%	34.9%	4.0	76.4%	25.4%
1	Zavier Fitch	F	So	6'7"	18-10	23.2	6.8	6.2	1.1	1.0	55.0%	37.9%	1.6	59.0%	17.9%
5	Michael Cooper	G	Jr	6'6"	31-5	13.4	4.8	2.4	0.6	0.9	48.6%	34.9%	1.4	82.4%	23.6%
15	Makhai Anderson	G	So	6'6"	22-7	9.5	3.4	2.2	0.4	0.4	50.0%	27.3%	0.5	67.6%	21.6%
3	Elijah Brown	G	Fr	6'4"	19-4	6.2	1.7	0.3	0.1	0.3	66.7%	66.7%	0.3	66.7%	14.8%
24	Sam Smith	F	Sr	6'6"	7-2	15.4	9.0	5.1	0.6	0.7	59.4%	33.3%	2.1	100.0%	28.8%
12	Huascar Cuevas	G	Jr	5'11"	5-3	13.4	2.6	1.0	0.6	1.6	55.0%	42.9%	1.4	100.0%	16.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Marquette2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Nigel James Jr.	G	Fr	6'0"	32-29	29.3	16.4	3.4	4.9	2.8	52.0%	34.7%	3.8	69.2%	35.0%
13	Royce Parham	F	So	6'8"	31-20	28.8	12.5	4.9	0.9	1.4	58.4%	33.3%	3.3	65.0%	23.4%
12	Ben Gold	F	Sr	6'11"	31-26	27.3	8.0	5.8	0.9	0.6	49.3%	26.4%	4.5	65.3%	17.8%
10	Adrien Stevens	G	Fr	6'4"	32-23	26.1	7.9	2.6	1.6	1.0	56.6%	37.5%	4.5	71.0%	17.4%
9	Damarius Owens	F	So	6'7"	30-1	15.7	4.8	2.6	0.7	0.7	47.4%	27.1%	2.0	71.7%	19.5%
18	Caedin Hamilton	F	So	6'9"	32-17	13.0	2.9	2.9	0.6	0.8	42.3%	0.0%	0.1	67.5%	16.9%
5	Tre Norman	G	Jr	6'4"	30-0	8.1	2.2	1.4	0.7	0.7	44.1%	11.1%	0.3	64.5%	20.5%
35	Michael Phillips II	F	Fr	6'6"	28-0	7.9	2.1	1.3	0.2	0.3	46.6%	37.0%	1.6	35.7%	19.1%
22	Sean Jones	G	Jr	5'10"	8-3	21.4	6.3	1.4	3.9	1.5	40.6%	32.1%	3.5	68.8%	21.5%
8	Joshua Clark	F	So	7'1"	22-0	5.7	1.4	2.0	0.0	0.0	46.7%	—	0.0	23.1%	16.6%
40	Casey O'Malley	G	Sr	6'3"	4-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	14.6%
42	Braeden Brenn	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	1.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	19.3%
41	Jonah Lucas	G	Sr	6'1"	3-0	1.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	—	19.3%
21	Ian Miletic	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Nash Walker	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Sheek Pearson	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Wagner2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Wagner's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Nick Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	29-22	32.1	14.9	3.6	2.5	2.7	47.1%	28.3%	3.7	82.6%	31.7%
7	Eddie Placer	G	Jr	6'5"	30-14	25.9	8.5	2.4	1.3	1.1	51.1%	39.0%	4.5	77.8%	21.1%
9	Jaden Baker	G	Sr	6'2"	24-24	31.8	9.3	3.6	3.2	2.1	45.6%	35.4%	4.0	77.8%	22.2%
4	John Awoke	G	Jr	6'3"	29-10	26.2	7.1	3.0	2.0	1.4	48.7%	36.3%	3.5	78.6%	19.6%
22	Binael Basil	F	So	6'7"	30-21	22.7	8.9	6.1	1.1	1.5	57.3%	31.3%	0.5	56.4%	24.5%
10	Bryan Akanmu	F	Jr	6'6"	31-21	20.3	6.2	3.9	1.4	1.5	48.2%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	23.0%
2	Travis Gray	G	Sr	6'5"	21-12	21.5	8.7	5.6	0.5	0.8	49.3%	34.9%	4.0	76.4%	25.4%
1	Zavier Fitch	F	So	6'7"	18-10	23.2	6.8	6.2	1.1	1.0	55.0%	37.9%	1.6	59.0%	17.9%
5	Michael Cooper	G	Jr	6'6"	31-5	13.4	4.8	2.4	0.6	0.9	48.6%	34.9%	1.4	82.4%	23.6%
15	Makhai Anderson	G	So	6'6"	22-7	9.5	3.4	2.2	0.4	0.4	50.0%	27.3%	0.5	67.6%	21.6%
3	Elijah Brown	G	Fr	6'4"	19-4	6.2	1.7	0.3	0.1	0.3	66.7%	66.7%	0.3	66.7%	14.8%
24	Sam Smith	F	Sr	6'6"	7-2	15.4	9.0	5.1	0.6	0.7	59.4%	33.3%	2.1	100.0%	28.8%
12	Huascar Cuevas	G	Jr	5'11"	5-3	13.4	2.6	1.0	0.6	1.6	55.0%	42.9%	1.4	100.0%	16.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Wagner

Against the spread

Season

15-12-1

Home

4-5-1

Road

11-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +3.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-13

Home

5-5

Road

10-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.9

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 56–64	+6.5	L−1.5	139.0	U120	87.6	100.1	63.9
Mar 4	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	W 70–60	+3.5	W+13.5	138.5	U130	114.0	97.7	61.4
Feb 28	Chicago StAdjEM #342	H	W 80–61	−5.0	W+14.0	135.5	O141	116.2	88.6	68.9
Feb 26	New HavenAdjEM #326	H	W 65–62	−2.0	W+1.0	131.5	U127	104.3	99.5	62.3
Feb 21	Saint Francis Red Wolves	A	W 65–56	−1.5	W+7.5	152.0	U121	100.0	86.2	65.0
Feb 19	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	A	W 83–80 OT	+3.5	W+6.5	134.5	O163	111.4	107.3	74.5
Feb 16	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 65–83	+10.5	L−7.5	137.0	O148	101.9	130.1	63.8
Feb 14	StonehillAdjEM #320	A	W 68–57	+3.0	W+14.0	129.5	U125	103.2	86.5	65.9
Feb 12	Long IslandAdjEM #195	H	L 57–67	+6.5	L−3.5	135.0	U124	81.2	95.5	70.2
Feb 7	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	L 67–84	+5.0	L−12.0	136.5	O151	102.0	127.9	65.7

Marquette

Against the spread

Season

11-19-2

Home

6-10-1

Road

5-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +5.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

6-11

Road

6-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −8.2

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	XavierAdjEM #129	N	L 87–89	−4.0	L−6.0	157.0	O176	113.7	116.3	76.6
Mar 7	#4UConnAdjEM #10	H	W 68–62	+10.0	W+16.0	142.5	U130	101.1	92.2	67.2
Mar 4	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	W 78–56	+4.5	W+26.5	162.0	U134	109.9	78.9	71.0
Mar 1	DePaulAdjEM #113	H	L 51–62	−4.5	L−15.5	139.5	U113	80.6	98.0	63.2
Feb 24	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	W 76–60	+2.5	W+18.5	150.5	U136	116.6	92.0	65.2
Feb 18	#17St John'sAdjEM #16	H	L 70–76	+8.5	W+2.5	157.0	U146	102.2	110.9	68.5
Feb 14	XavierAdjEM #129	A	L 88–96	+2.0	L−6.0	157.5	O184	122.1	133.1	72.1
Feb 10	VillanovaAdjEM #40	A	L 74–77	+9.5	W+6.5	145.0	O151	105.5	109.8	70.1
Feb 7	ButlerAdjEM #87	H	W 70–55	−3.5	W+11.5	155.5	U125	104.6	82.2	66.9
Jan 31	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	L 64–69	+5.5	W+0.5	143.0	U133	102.8	110.8	62.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

WagnerMarquette

Efficiency

105.3

108.7

111.6

104.8

67.0

69.5

—

Shooting

49.6%

50.5%

46.6%

52.7%

36.6%

31.7%

72.6%

67.5%

32.3%

32.8%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

16.0%

14.9%

19.3%

32.8%

29.7%

29.6%

34.7%

10.7%

9.7%

10.4%

10.0%

Style

36.1%

42.2%

41.6%

47.8%

9.4%

19.5%

48.9%

58.1%

36.5%

29.0%

Roster

2.97

2.02

6'4.4"

6'5.9"

—

79.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Wagner

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Wagner's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Marquette

Returning minutes: 79.8%Returning production: 78.7%

Lost

Chase Ross 32.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Zaide Lowery 8.0 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Sheek Pearson no D1 minutes last season
Nash Walker no D1 minutes last season
Ian Miletic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 80% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.