CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCharles E. Smith Center, Washington, DC

SE Louisiana

Efficiency #296

2025-26: 9-22 · 6-16 conf

G Washington

Efficiency #68

2025-26: 19-16 · 9-11 conf

Tue, Dec 1 · TBD

66.7

win 12%

Projected

80.3

win 88%

No line posted yet.

Model: GW −13.6 · total 147.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: G Washington 69.5, SE Louisiana 67.1 → 68.2 possessions

−0.2

G Washington offense vs SE Louisiana defense

+4.3

SE Louisiana offense vs G Washington defense

−5.4

Projected total

147.0

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

G Washington offense vs SE Louisiana defense

+4.3

SE Louisiana offense vs G Washington defense

+5.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

G Washington by 13.6

13.6

SE Louisiana side ◂▸ G Washington side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.9 against a projected 147.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help G Washington.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, G Washington is the faster team (69.9, #97 of 365) and SE Louisiana the slower (65.6, #312). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.0

model

Projected team totals

66.7 / 80.3

SE Louisiana / G Washington

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.1#282

SE Louisiana

69.5#83

G Washington

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageG Washington

Where G Washington scores: shooting

G Washington shoots an effective 54.4% (#55); SE Louisiana allows 52.4% (#233). Expect about 53.7%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageSE Louisiana

Where SE Louisiana struggles: shooting

SE Louisiana shoots an effective 46.7% (#343); G Washington allows 52.4% (#234). Expect about 49.2%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversG Washington

G Washington turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 19.0% is worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions against G Washington's offense.

GlassG Washington

G Washington owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for G Washington's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (SE Louisiana) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect SE Louisiana at about 41.7% of its shots from three, G Washington about 44.5%.

TurnoversSE Louisiana

SE Louisiana turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against SE Louisiana's offense.

SE Louisiana has the ball

OffenseG Washington allowsvs D1 avg

46.7% #343

52.4% #234

-3.0 pt/100

18.4% #291

17.7% #114

-1.9 pt/100

28.6% #245

28.7% #91

-1.2 pt/100

40.3% #56

34.9% #178

+0.3 pt/100

68.4% #318

—

-0.4 pt/100

SE Louisiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.1 pts/100

G Washington has the ball

OffenseSE Louisiana allowsvs D1 avg

54.4% #55

52.4% #233

+3.4 pt/100

18.2% #282

19.1% #46

-2.8 pt/100

35.8% #26

31.4% #225

+2.6 pt/100

34.9% #184

41.2% #314

+0.4 pt/100

72.3% #194

—

-0.0 pt/100

G Washington net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

SE Louisianaoffense vsG Washingtondefense

Share of shots by zone

SE Louisiana shoots

35.9

5.4

19.4

39.3

G Washington allows

37.6

5.4

13.8

43.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.7%#171	62.2%#303	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.8%#309	36.1%#92	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.1%#309	34.3%#55	38.0%
Three	28.4%#362	33.9%#175	33.7%

G Washingtonoffense vsSE Louisianadefense

Share of shots by zone

G Washington shoots

43.1

3.7

6.2

47.0

SE Louisiana allows

38.3

5.0

19.5

37.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.6%#138	59.1%#195	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.6%#161	46.7%#328	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.6%#319	36.9%#127	38.0%
Three	35.1%#106	36.0%#301	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

SE Louisiana

−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#200 of 365

Off reb %

28.6%

#245

Def reb %

68.6%

#225

Turnover %

18.4%

#291

Forced TO %

19.1%

#46

FT rate

40.3%

#56

FT allowed

41.2%

#314

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−1.1

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.5

G Washington

+2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#93 of 365

Off reb %

35.8%

#26

Def reb %

71.3%

#91

Turnover %

18.2%

#282

Forced TO %

17.7%

#114

FT rate

34.9%

#184

FT allowed

34.9%

#178

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.8

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.1

G Washington has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.1 (#93 of 365) to SE Louisiana’s −0.5 (#200).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SE Louisiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Jeremy Elyzee	F	So	6'7"	31-31	29.5	11.1	4.5	1.8	1.9	48.9%	21.2%	1.7	70.3%	25.7%
23	Isaiah Gaines	F	Sr	6'8"	31-31	28.3	10.6	6.2	1.6	1.9	54.9%	9.1%	0.4	63.4%	23.9%
1	Makhi Myles	F	So	6'7"	31-18	21.0	7.7	3.6	0.6	0.9	50.5%	34.3%	3.3	82.8%	22.7%
10	Jaiden Lawrence	G	Jr	6'4"	31-18	20.3	5.1	2.4	0.6	0.5	45.9%	29.9%	3.5	66.7%	17.2%
4	CJ Booker	PG	So	5'10"	30-22	20.5	4.7	1.3	2.0	0.8	45.4%	39.7%	1.9	72.2%	17.3%
8	Peter Hemschemeier	G	Fr	6'5"	27-12	20.3	6.4	1.6	1.9	1.6	40.7%	27.5%	4.4	73.1%	27.2%
3	Ethan Pickett	G	Sr	6'5"	31-21	17.6	5.1	2.4	1.3	1.1	44.4%	16.0%	0.8	68.4%	21.4%
2	Jalen Forrest	G	Jr	6'4"	28-0	17.2	7.9	2.6	0.6	1.0	44.0%	26.5%	2.4	78.8%	29.6%
5	Kyle Edison	G	So	6'3"	25-2	9.8	3.2	1.5	0.9	0.8	43.8%	23.1%	1.6	64.9%	25.4%
6	Ubong-Abasi Etim	C	Sr	6'9"	31-0	7.4	1.2	1.5	0.2	0.2	51.5%	—	0.0	16.7%	12.1%
32	Garrett Shoemaker	F	Fr	6'9"	24-0	7.1	1.9	1.4	0.1	0.4	51.5%	29.4%	0.7	35.7%	20.5%
12	Ahmed Essahaty	G	Sr	6'2"	16-0	10.1	2.2	1.4	0.8	0.9	38.9%	21.1%	1.2	58.3%	21.1%
7	Seth Jones	G	Jr	6'1"	8-0	19.8	7.3	2.8	1.0	2.3	41.7%	27.9%	5.4	80.0%	30.3%
11	Amir Chaney	PG	Fr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Cody Al-Naziat	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

G Washington2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Trey Autry	G	Jr	6'4"	34-34	28.7	11.0	3.5	1.5	0.9	58.6%	38.5%	6.4	81.0%	19.6%
2	Christian Jones	G	So	6'4"	34-34	26.4	10.0	3.0	3.1	2.1	53.0%	36.4%	3.5	65.6%	24.5%
7	Jean Aranguren	G	Jr	6'3"	35-22	24.1	8.2	4.2	3.4	2.1	55.0%	36.5%	2.1	70.2%	21.6%
24	Tyrone Marshall Jr.	F	Sr	6'8"	33-13	23.5	8.8	4.6	2.0	1.6	56.7%	36.2%	1.8	65.4%	22.0%
3	Tre Dinkins	G	Sr	6'2"	35-1	21.1	8.8	1.7	1.8	1.2	54.2%	38.2%	5.8	80.0%	23.9%
9	Garrett Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	29-11	22.6	11.4	3.4	1.2	1.0	50.4%	33.1%	5.5	83.8%	29.0%
11	Bubu Benjamin	G	Jr	6'7"	30-18	20.4	5.8	2.7	1.0	0.7	47.1%	26.6%	3.1	70.3%	17.5%
32	Amir Arrington	G	Jr	6'0"	4-0	3.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%	40.0%	1.3	—	25.4%
21	Mohamed Binzagr	G	Sr	6'2"	4-0	2.3	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	0.0%	33.9%
10	Jalen Rougier-Roane	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Trey Moss	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Vincent Chaudhri	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SE Louisiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Jeremy Elyzee	F	So	6'7"	31-31	29.5	11.1	4.5	1.8	1.9	48.9%	21.2%	1.7	70.3%	25.7%
23	Isaiah Gaines	F	Sr	6'8"	31-31	28.3	10.6	6.2	1.6	1.9	54.9%	9.1%	0.4	63.4%	23.9%
1	Makhi Myles	F	So	6'7"	31-18	21.0	7.7	3.6	0.6	0.9	50.5%	34.3%	3.3	82.8%	22.7%
10	Jaiden Lawrence	G	Jr	6'4"	31-18	20.3	5.1	2.4	0.6	0.5	45.9%	29.9%	3.5	66.7%	17.2%
4	CJ Booker	PG	So	5'10"	30-22	20.5	4.7	1.3	2.0	0.8	45.4%	39.7%	1.9	72.2%	17.3%
8	Peter Hemschemeier	G	Fr	6'5"	27-12	20.3	6.4	1.6	1.9	1.6	40.7%	27.5%	4.4	73.1%	27.2%
3	Ethan Pickett	G	Sr	6'5"	31-21	17.6	5.1	2.4	1.3	1.1	44.4%	16.0%	0.8	68.4%	21.4%
2	Jalen Forrest	G	Jr	6'4"	28-0	17.2	7.9	2.6	0.6	1.0	44.0%	26.5%	2.4	78.8%	29.6%
5	Kyle Edison	G	So	6'3"	25-2	9.8	3.2	1.5	0.9	0.8	43.8%	23.1%	1.6	64.9%	25.4%
6	Ubong-Abasi Etim	C	Sr	6'9"	31-0	7.4	1.2	1.5	0.2	0.2	51.5%	—	0.0	16.7%	12.1%
32	Garrett Shoemaker	F	Fr	6'9"	24-0	7.1	1.9	1.4	0.1	0.4	51.5%	29.4%	0.7	35.7%	20.5%
12	Ahmed Essahaty	G	Sr	6'2"	16-0	10.1	2.2	1.4	0.8	0.9	38.9%	21.1%	1.2	58.3%	21.1%
7	Seth Jones	G	Jr	6'1"	8-0	19.8	7.3	2.8	1.0	2.3	41.7%	27.9%	5.4	80.0%	30.3%
11	Amir Chaney	PG	Fr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Cody Al-Naziat	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

SE Louisiana

Against the spread

Season

14-16

Home

5-6

Road

7-10

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −4.6

Covered the last gameCovered 1 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-17

Home

6-5

Road

6-11

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.5

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 2	LSU N OrleansAdjEM #221	A	W 82–78	+7.0	W+11.0	144.0	O160	110.2	104.8	74.4
Feb 28	NichollsAdjEM #250	A	L 60–68	+4.5	L−3.5	140.0	U128	91.8	104.0	65.4
Feb 23	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	H	L 68–73	+2.0	L−3.0	130.5	O141	105.2	112.9	64.7
Feb 21	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #109	H	L 75–96	+4.0	L−17.0	139.5	O171	117.5	150.4	63.8
Feb 16	East Texas A&MAdjEM #311	A	L 53–70	+1.5	L−15.5	136.5	U123	78.2	103.3	67.7
Feb 14	N'Western StAdjEM #299	A	L 66–69	+1.0	L−2.0	131.0	O135	105.6	110.4	62.5
Feb 9	Incarnate WordAdjEM #264	H	W 74–62	−1.0	W+11.0	137.5	U136	121.1	101.5	61.1
Feb 7	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	H	W 55–47	−4.5	W+3.5	133.5	U102	97.4	83.2	56.5
Feb 2	LamarAdjEM #236	A	L 54–73	+6.0	L−13.0	133.5	U127	89.0	120.3	60.7
Jan 31	SF AustinAdjEM #73	A	L 58–85	+9.5	L−17.5	135.5	O143	95.6	140.1	60.7

G Washington

Against the spread

Season

15-17-2

Home

8-5-2

Road

4-8

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-18

Home

6-9

Road

5-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −2.6

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	L 61–86	+7.0	L−18.0	161.5	U147	89.2	125.8	68.4
Mar 18	Utah ValleyAdjEM #75	A	W 79–78	+1.5	W+2.5	153.0	O157	114.5	113.1	69.0
Mar 13	Saint LouisAdjEM #20	N	L 81–88	+6.5	L−0.5	162.5	O169	108.8	118.2	74.4
Mar 12	FordhamAdjEM #170	N	W 66–62	−6.0	L−2.0	141.0	U128	103.5	97.2	63.8
Mar 7	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	A	L 62–68	−9.5	L−15.5	148.0	U130	97.4	106.8	63.7
Mar 4	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	H	W 91–82 OT	−7.5	W+1.5	157.0	O173	115.1	103.7	79.1
Feb 27	DaytonAdjEM #62	H	L 66–68	−2.5	L−4.5	152.0	U134	98.7	101.7	66.9
Feb 24	La SalleAdjEM #256	A	W 104–77	−7.5	W+19.5	148.0	O181	143.5	106.3	72.5
Feb 17	VCUAdjEM #39	A	L 75–89	+6.0	L−8.0	161.5	O164	109.7	130.2	68.3
Feb 13	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 72–53	−3.5	W+15.5	150.0	U125	122.6	90.2	58.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SE LouisianaG Washington

Efficiency

102.1

114.2

109.1

107.0

67.1

69.5

—

Shooting

46.7%

54.4%

49.4%

55.9%

28.4%

35.1%

68.4%

72.3%

40.3%

34.9%

Ball control & glass

18.4%

18.2%

19.1%

17.7%

28.6%

35.8%

31.4%

28.7%

10.1%

11.4%

9.7%

10.3%

Style

39.5%

47.0%

43.8%

42.2%

12.2%

11.7%

51.6%

55.4%

37.4%

33.7%

Roster

2.67

3.11

6'5.1"

6'4.9"

—

78.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SE Louisiana

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

G Washington

Returning minutes: 78.6%Returning production: 71.0%

Lost

Rafael Castro 22.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Luke Hunger 18.1 mpg, 7.9 ppg · transferred to Boston College
Ty Bevins 2.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg · transferred to Rider

Added

Jalen Rougier-Roane no D1 minutes last season
Vincent Chaudhri no D1 minutes last season
Trey Moss no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.