CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceWilliams Arena at Minges Coliseum, Greenville, NC
Richmond
Efficiency #150
2025-26: 15-17 · 5-14 conf
@
East Carolina
Efficiency #272
2025-26: 11-20 · 6-12 conf
Tue, Dec 1 · 7:00 PM ET
75.3
win 53%
Projected
74.4
win 47%
No line posted yet.
Model: RICH −0.9 · total 149.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: East Carolina 69.1, Richmond 68.5 → 69.3 possessions
+2.1
East Carolina offense vs Richmond defense
−2.8
Richmond offense vs East Carolina defense
+2.1
Projected total
149.7
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
East Carolina offense vs Richmond defense
−2.8
Richmond offense vs East Carolina defense
−2.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Richmond by 0.9
0.9
Richmond side ◂▸ East Carolina side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.6 against a projected 149.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help East Carolina.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, East Carolina is the faster team (69.2, #135 of 365) and Richmond the slower (68.5, #172). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.7
model
Projected team totals
75.3 / 74.4
Richmond / East Carolina
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.5#169
Richmond
69.1#110
East Carolina
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageEast Carolina
Where East Carolina struggles: shooting
East Carolina shoots an effective 46.4% (#346); Richmond allows 52.0% (#216). Expect about 48.8%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageRichmond
Where Richmond scores: ball control
Richmond turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#33); East Carolina forces turnovers on 16.2% of opponent possessions (#206). Expect about 15.0%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (East Carolina, Richmond) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Richmond at about 41.5% of its shots from three, East Carolina about 36.8%.
GlassRichmond
Richmond gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.7% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Richmond's offense.
ClashEast Carolina
Style clash: 3-point volume
East Carolina rarely shoots threes (31.1% of its shots); Richmond lets opponents take 45.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 36.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Richmond has the ball
OffenseEast Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #115
52.3% #229
+1.9 pt/100
14.3% #33
16.2% #206
+2.2 pt/100
25.0% #340
32.5% #282
-1.7 pt/100
36.9% #133
32.2% #110
-0.1 pt/100
75.2% #76
—
+0.2 pt/100
Richmond net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100
East Carolina has the ball
OffenseRichmond allowsvs D1 avg
46.4% #346
52.0% #216
-3.5 pt/100
17.1% #212
17.7% #110
-1.0 pt/100
33.4% #79
31.0% #200
+1.4 pt/100
39.2% #75
35.1% #181
+0.3 pt/100
70.0% #274
—
-0.2 pt/100
East Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersRichmondoffense vsEast Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
Richmond shoots
29.1
5.8
22.7
42.5
East Carolina allows
37.5
4.9
18.6
39.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.1%#116 | 58.9%#185 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.6%#230 | 44.4%#279 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.7%#87 | 39.9%#238 | 38.0% |
| Three | 37.1%#28 | 34.9%#245 | 33.7% |
East Carolinaoffense vsRichmonddefense
Share of shots by zone
East Carolina shoots
39.5
5.2
24.9
30.4
Richmond allows
33.3
7.3
14.2
45.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.3%#318 | 64.5%#345 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.8%#198 | 39.5%#172 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.1%#184 | 39.8%#236 | 38.0% |
| Three | 29.3%#350 | 32.7%#103 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersRichmond
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#135 of 365
Off reb %
25.0%
#340
Def reb %
69.0%
#200
Turnover %
14.3%
#33
Forced TO %
17.7%
#110
FT rate
36.9%
#133
FT allowed
35.1%
#181
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+0.7
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed0.0
East Carolina
+1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#114 of 365
Off reb %
33.4%
#79
Def reb %
67.5%
#282
Turnover %
17.1%
#212
Forced TO %
16.2%
#206
FT rate
39.2%
#75
FT allowed
32.2%
#110
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.8
East Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.7 (#114 of 365) to Richmond’s +1.0 (#135).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Richmond2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AJ Lopez | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 25.8 | 13.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 54.1% | 39.4% | 3.3 | 86.2% | 26.7% | |
| 3 | Aiden Argabright | G | Fr | 5'11" | 31-3 | 23.5 | 10.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 49.2% | 35.0% | 2.6 | 82.9% | 24.3% | |
| 21 | Mike Walz | C | Sr | 6'11" | 32-32 | 21.2 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 55.9% | 38.5% | 2.4 | 75.6% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Collin Tanner | G | Jr | 6'6" | 29-22 | 18.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 50.7% | 29.2% | 2.2 | 75.0% | 19.4% | |
| 2 | Jaden Daughtry | F | Jr | 6'7" | 31-4 | 15.7 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 57.8% | 45.3% | 1.7 | 59.7% | 33.5% | |
| 12 | David Thomas | G | Jr | 6'2" | 31-7 | 14.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 55.4% | 42.1% | 1.8 | 87.5% | 17.3% | |
| 33 | Apostolos Roumoglou | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-0 | 15.4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 43.0% | 22.6% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 13.6% | |
| 9 | Jonathan Beagle | F | Sr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 14.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 54.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 61.1% | 24.1% | |
| 11 | Will Harper III | G | Fr | 6'4" | 13-0 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 39.7% | 29.4% | 1.3 | 84.2% | 22.7% | |
| 35 | Bryson McGlothin | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 27.1% | |
| 15 | Kirby Mooney | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 27.6% | |
| 8 | Donovan Richardson | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 16 | Dylan Homenick | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
East Carolina2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Corey Caulker | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-26 | 30.7 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 41.1% | 32.5% | 4.1 | 77.5% | 19.9% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Mbeng | G | So | 6'1" | 31-7 | 23.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 42.1% | 25.5% | 3.2 | 65.4% | 17.2% | |
| 15 | Demitri Gardner | G | Sr | 6'4" | 18-14 | 27.9 | 11.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 53.2% | 42.6% | 3.4 | 86.5% | 23.6% | |
| 23 | Reid Cason | F | So | 6'10" | 31-12 | 15.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 56.7% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 67.5% | 15.5% | |
| 4 | Tybo Bailey | G | So | 6'2" | 20-15 | 23.4 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 39.1% | 27.8% | 4.0 | 72.4% | 21.9% | |
| 33 | Eli DeLaurier | F | So | 6'10" | 23-10 | 15.9 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 44.2% | 13.3% | 1.3 | 90.5% | 22.1% | |
| 43 | Luke Davis | F | Sr | 6'8" | 26-7 | 11.3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 16.7% | 0.2 | 78.9% | 14.6% | |
| 10 | Paddy D'Arcy | G | Fr | 6'6" | 21-0 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 31.3% | 20.7% | 1.4 | 100.0% | 13.2% | |
| 11 | Vito Perkovic | F | Fr | 6'10" | 19-1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 38.8% | 26.1% | 1.2 | 100.0% | 23.6% | |
| 0 | Jayshayne Woodard | G | Sr | 6'7" | 4-2 | 15.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 1.3 | 55.6% | 21.9% | |
| 6 | Ladontae Felton | G | Fr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 18.4% | |
| 3 | Daithi Quinn | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 35 | Grant Smith | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Jake Baker | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Trevion LaBeaux | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Richmond2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AJ Lopez | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 25.8 | 13.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 54.1% | 39.4% | 3.3 | 86.2% | 26.7% | |
| 3 | Aiden Argabright | G | Fr | 5'11" | 31-3 | 23.5 | 10.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 49.2% | 35.0% | 2.6 | 82.9% | 24.3% | |
| 21 | Mike Walz | C | Sr | 6'11" | 32-32 | 21.2 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 55.9% | 38.5% | 2.4 | 75.6% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Collin Tanner | G | Jr | 6'6" | 29-22 | 18.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 50.7% | 29.2% | 2.2 | 75.0% | 19.4% | |
| 2 | Jaden Daughtry | F | Jr | 6'7" | 31-4 | 15.7 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 57.8% | 45.3% | 1.7 | 59.7% | 33.5% | |
| 12 | David Thomas | G | Jr | 6'2" | 31-7 | 14.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 55.4% | 42.1% | 1.8 | 87.5% | 17.3% | |
| 33 | Apostolos Roumoglou | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-0 | 15.4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 43.0% | 22.6% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 13.6% | |
| 9 | Jonathan Beagle | F | Sr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 14.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 54.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 61.1% | 24.1% | |
| 11 | Will Harper III | G | Fr | 6'4" | 13-0 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 39.7% | 29.4% | 1.3 | 84.2% | 22.7% | |
| 35 | Bryson McGlothin | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 27.1% | |
| 15 | Kirby Mooney | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 27.6% | |
| 8 | Donovan Richardson | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 16 | Dylan Homenick | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Richmond
Against the spread
Season
15-15-1
Home
8-8-1
Road
7-4
Last 10
5-4-1
avg cover −2.2
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
14-17
Home
8-9
Road
5-6
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +2.0
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Loyola Chicago | N | L 67–75 | −4.5 | L−12.5 | 141.5 | O142 | 107.2 | 120.0 | 62.5 |
| Mar 7 | Duquesne | A | L 77–79 | +4.5 | W+2.5 | 148.0 | O156 | 116.8 | 119.9 | 65.9 |
| Mar 3 | Dayton | H | L 60–65 | +5.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U125 | 97.0 | 105.1 | 61.8 |
| Feb 28 | Loyola Chicago | A | L 66–69 | −2.5 | L−5.5 | 146.5 | U135 | 91.7 | 95.9 | 72.0 |
| Feb 21 | St Bonaventure | H | W 99–94 | −1.0 | W+4.0 | 148.5 | O193 | 134.8 | 128.0 | 73.4 |
| Feb 18 | Davidson | A | L 63–65 | +5.0 | W+3.0 | 140.5 | U128 | 98.8 | 101.9 | 63.8 |
| Feb 14 | VCU | H | L 67–78 | +8.5 | L−2.5 | 156.0 | U145 | 95.9 | 111.6 | 69.9 |
| Feb 10 | George Mason | H | W 82–70 | +3.0 | W+15.0 | 140.0 | O152 | 116.9 | 99.8 | 70.1 |
| Feb 7 | Rhode Island | A | L 77–82 | +6.0 | W+1.0 | 141.0 | O159 | 113.2 | 120.5 | 68.0 |
| Jan 31 | Davidson | H | L 54–79 | −2.0 | L−27.0 | 140.5 | U133 | 93.5 | 136.8 | 57.8 |
East Carolina
Against the spread
Season
13-17
Home
6-10
Road
6-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +2.5
Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
10-6
Road
5-7
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +8.0
Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | UAB | A | L 83–90 | +10.0 | W+3.0 | 150.5 | O173 | 108.9 | 118.1 | 76.2 |
| Mar 5 | Tulsa | H | L 66–93 | +8.5 | L−18.5 | 156.0 | O159 | 99.0 | 139.5 | 66.7 |
| Mar 1 | Memphis | H | W 84–68 | +4.0 | W+20.0 | 153.5 | U152 | 114.3 | 92.5 | 73.5 |
| Feb 25 | UTSA | A | W 82–81 | −4.5 | L−3.5 | 153.5 | O163 | 121.4 | 119.9 | 67.5 |
| Feb 21 | Charlotte | A | L 56–68 | +4.5 | L−7.5 | 146.0 | U124 | 85.8 | 104.2 | 65.3 |
| Feb 18 | Wichita St | H | L 89–92 2OT | +8.0 | W+5.0 | 149.5 | O181 | 101.0 | 104.4 | 88.1 |
| Feb 14 | Rice | A | W 85–75 | +4.5 | W+14.5 | 145.5 | O160 | 127.9 | 112.8 | 66.5 |
| Feb 11 | UTSA | H | W 88–72 | −10.5 | W+5.5 | 149.5 | O160 | 123.9 | 101.3 | 71.0 |
| Feb 7 | Temple | H | L 73–81 | +2.5 | L−5.5 | 139.5 | O154 | 114.7 | 127.2 | 63.7 |
| Feb 1 | FAU | A | W 76–75 | +10.5 | W+11.5 | 153.5 | U151 | 113.3 | 111.8 | 67.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeRichmondEast Carolina
Efficiency
110.1
104.1
108.9
110.0
68.5
69.1
—
—
Shooting
52.7%
46.4%
50.5%
47.5%
37.1%
29.3%
75.2%
70.0%
36.9%
39.2%
Ball control & glass
14.3%
17.1%
17.7%
16.2%
25.0%
33.4%
31.0%
32.5%
7.8%
9.8%
7.7%
8.1%
Style
42.6%
31.1%
34.0%
43.4%
16.1%
12.0%
54.5%
47.3%
43.4%
27.1%
Roster
3.10
2.58
6'5.6"
6'4.1"
72.2%
65.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputRichmond
Returning minutes: 72.2%Returning production: 78.0%
Lost
- Will Johnston 27.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mikkel Tyne 18.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
- Jaylen Robinson 10.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart
Added
- Dylan Homenick no D1 minutes last season
- Donovan Richardson no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
East Carolina
Returning minutes: 65.8%Returning production: 50.3%
Lost
- Jordan Riley 36.6 mpg, 22.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Giovanni Emejuru 32.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Daithi Quinn no D1 minutes last season
- Jake Baker no D1 minutes last season
- Grant Smith no D1 minutes last season
- Trevion LaBeaux no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 66% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 8 | 2025-26 | East Carolina 72 – 87 Richmond |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.