CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThe Coliseum, Carrollton, GA
S Indiana
Efficiency #333
2025-26: 7-23 · 4-16 conf
@
West Georgia
Efficiency #304
2025-26: 15-17 · 9-11 conf
Tue, Dec 1 · 11:00 AM ET
70.0
win 30%
Projected
75.9
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: WGA −6.0 · total 145.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: West Georgia 69.4, S Indiana 68.6 → 69.7 possessions
+3.0
West Georgia offense vs S Indiana defense
−1.7
S Indiana offense vs West Georgia defense
−3.6
Projected total
145.9
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
West Georgia offense vs S Indiana defense
−1.7
S Indiana offense vs West Georgia defense
+3.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
West Georgia by 6.0
6.0
S Indiana side ◂▸ West Georgia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +5.9 against +6.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help West Georgia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, West Georgia is the faster team (70.2, #89 of 365) and S Indiana the slower (68.4, #175). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.9
model
Projected team totals
70.0 / 75.9
S Indiana / West Georgia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#162
S Indiana
69.4#86
West Georgia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageS Indiana
Where S Indiana struggles: shooting
S Indiana shoots an effective 43.7% (#363); West Georgia allows 53.4% (#281). Expect about 48.0%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.7 points per 100 possessions.
ClashWest Georgia
Style match: 3-point volume
West Georgia rarely shoots threes (33.0% of its shots); S Indiana runs teams off the line (27.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 26.3% — both habits push the same way.
ClashWest Georgia
Style match: ball movement
West Georgia creates off the dribble (assists on 44.3% of its baskets); S Indiana breaks up passing offenses (assists on 40.3% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 39.3% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageWest Georgia
Where West Georgia struggles: shooting
West Georgia shoots an effective 49.6% (#261); S Indiana allows 49.4% (#80). Expect about 49.3%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (S Indiana) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect S Indiana at about 38.3% of its shots from three, West Georgia about 26.3%.
ClashWest Georgia
Style match: paint scoring
West Georgia scores 46.3% of its points in the paint; S Indiana gives up 49.8% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.0% — both habits push the same way.
S Indiana has the ball
OffenseWest Georgia allowsvs D1 avg
43.7% #363
53.4% #281
-4.7 pt/100
17.2% #216
14.7% #310
+1.4 pt/100
31.4% #145
29.0% #102
+0.0 pt/100
37.2% #123
36.9% #234
+0.3 pt/100
66.6% #347
—
-0.5 pt/100
S Indiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.5 pts/100
West Georgia has the ball
OffenseS Indiana allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #261
49.4% #80
-2.7 pt/100
15.9% #128
16.4% #190
+0.9 pt/100
31.5% #142
33.8% #315
+1.5 pt/100
29.2% #329
36.2% #212
-0.3 pt/100
70.4% #259
—
-0.2 pt/100
West Georgia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
S Indianaoffense vsWest Georgiadefense
Share of shots by zone
S Indiana shoots
West Georgia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim49.4%#36360.8%#26258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.0%#34244.6%#28539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)29.8%#35539.6%#22838.0%
Three29.9%#34533.1%#12833.7%
West Georgiaoffense vsS Indianadefense
Share of shots by zone
West Georgia shoots
S Indiana allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.3%#26156.3%#9258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)50.9%#933.3%#3139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.3%#21235.6%#9438.0%
Three33.1%#22234.1%#19333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
S Indiana
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#217 of 365
Off reb %
31.4%
#145
Def reb %
66.2%
#315
Turnover %
17.2%
#216
Forced TO %
16.4%
#190
FT rate
37.2%
#123
FT allowed
36.2%
#212
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.2
West Georgia
−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#264 of 365
Off reb %
31.5%
#142
Def reb %
71.0%
#102
Turnover %
15.9%
#128
Forced TO %
14.7%
#310
FT rate
29.2%
#329
FT allowed
36.9%
#234
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.4

S Indiana has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#217 of 365) to West Georgia’s −1.8 (#264).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

S Indiana2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Ismail HabibGSr6'1"27-2332.414.73.62.82.447.2%33.0%6.968.8%30.5%
3Tolu SamuelsFJr6'8"29-2629.57.18.61.31.045.5%25.0%0.451.2%16.8%
5Ola AjiboyeFSr6'8"30-3025.06.65.10.80.849.3%0.0%0.065.2%16.2%
8Cardell BaileyGSr6'6"29-724.612.65.00.71.446.1%30.9%5.771.4%33.9%
11Sheridan SharpGJr6'3"30-717.14.42.12.51.431.8%25.0%0.563.5%23.6%
2Steven ClayGSr6'4"30-2114.54.42.00.50.550.4%31.0%2.993.3%18.4%
15Amaree BrownGJr6'5"16-1226.413.82.81.21.941.2%28.8%3.778.5%36.7%
22Josiah DunhamGSo6'0"20-1020.94.81.90.70.747.3%35.8%3.480.0%15.9%
0Kaden BrownGJr6'1"13-1228.311.12.51.61.849.6%33.7%6.667.4%24.0%
13Devin CurtisFJr6'11"27-011.32.12.50.20.644.4%0.0%0.144.4%14.8%
6Ben EzeaguFSr6'7"15-08.52.11.30.00.745.0%—0.056.0%18.5%
12Alem FejzicGSo6'3"14-08.61.60.60.10.233.8%21.2%2.4—16.7%
1Trey ThomasGSr6'2"4-222.511.83.31.02.040.9%18.8%4.0100.0%37.8%
4Braxton JonesGSr6'0"4-010.52.30.50.50.319.2%25.0%1.0100.0%20.0%
33Cayden GehlhausenGSo6'8"5-03.40.41.40.00.4100.0%—0.0—9.6%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
S IndianaWest Georgia
Efficiency
100.1
104.0
110.6
111.6
68.6
69.4
—
—
Shooting
43.7%
49.6%
43.0%
49.6%
29.9%
33.1%
66.6%
70.4%
37.2%
29.2%
Ball control & glass
17.2%
15.9%
16.4%
14.7%
31.4%
31.5%
33.8%
29.0%
9.5%
9.5%
14.1%
5.6%
Style
39.7%
33.0%
38.0%
46.3%
14.7%
13.4%
43.0%
44.3%
35.3%
32.3%
Roster
3.41
3.03
6'4.7"
6'5"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
S Indiana
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

West Georgia
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted West Georgia's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.