CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThomas M. Ryan Center, Kingston, RI
Brown
Efficiency #275
2025-26: 9-18 · 3-11 conf
@
Rhode Island
Efficiency #137
2025-26: 16-16 · 7-12 conf
Tue, Dec 1 · TBD
63.1
win 22%
Projected
72.2
win 78%
No line posted yet.
Model: URI −9.1 · total 135.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Rhode Island 67.3, Brown 67.9 → 66.8 possessions
−3.2
Rhode Island offense vs Brown defense
−2.2
Brown offense vs Rhode Island defense
−7.5
Projected total
135.4
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Rhode Island offense vs Brown defense
−2.2
Brown offense vs Rhode Island defense
+7.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Rhode Island by 9.1
9.1
Brown side ◂▸ Rhode Island side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 135.3 against a projected 135.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Rhode Island.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Brown is the faster team (66.7, #260 of 365) and Rhode Island the slower (66.0, #295). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
135.4
model
Projected team totals
63.1 / 72.2
Brown / Rhode Island
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.9#220
Brown
67.3#267
Rhode Island

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageBrown
Where Brown struggles: ball control
Brown turns it over on 19.5% of possessions (#337); Rhode Island forces turnovers on 21.1% of opponent possessions (#10). Expect about 21.1%, 4.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageRhode Island
Where Rhode Island struggles: ball control
Rhode Island turns it over on 19.2% of possessions (#329); Brown forces turnovers on 18.7% of opponent possessions (#62). Expect about 19.4%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Rhode Island averages 66.0 possessions per 40, Brown 66.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseRhode Island
Rhode Island's ball-hawking
Rhode Island ranks #15 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.2% of Brown's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Rhode Island, Brown) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Brown at about 38.3% of its shots from three, Rhode Island about 45.0%.
ClashRhode Island
Style match: 3-point volume
Rhode Island takes 43.5% of its shots from three; Brown lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.0% — both habits push the same way.
Brown has the ball
OffenseRhode Island allowsvs D1 avg
48.6% #299
50.4% #124
-2.8 pt/100
19.5% #337
21.1% #10
-5.3 pt/100
29.0% #236
31.8% #247
-0.2 pt/100
28.1% #342
42.6% #331
+0.1 pt/100
68.4% #316
—
-0.4 pt/100
Brown net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.5 pts/100
Rhode Island has the ball
OffenseBrown allowsvs D1 avg
50.1% #231
51.3% #176
-0.9 pt/100
19.2% #329
18.7% #62
-3.2 pt/100
31.0% #163
30.0% #164
+0.2 pt/100
38.4% #92
37.6% #253
+0.4 pt/100
72.1% #206
—
-0.0 pt/100
Rhode Island net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Brownoffense vsRhode Islanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Brown shoots
Rhode Island allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.9%#27655.3%#7158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.5%#9034.0%#4439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.7%#29731.0%#1038.0%
Three30.3%#33834.7%#23233.7%
Rhode Islandoffense vsBrowndefense
Share of shots by zone
Rhode Island shoots
Brown allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.1%#26955.7%#7758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.2%#19240.5%#20039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.5%#4945.8%#35538.0%
Three31.1%#31833.5%#15733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Brown
−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#308 of 365
Off reb %
29.0%
#236
Def reb %
70.0%
#164
Turnover %
19.5%
#337
Forced TO %
18.7%
#62
FT rate
28.1%
#342
FT allowed
37.6%
#253
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−1.8
Foul shots allowed−0.6
Rhode Island
+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#175 of 365
Off reb %
31.0%
#163
Def reb %
68.2%
#247
Turnover %
19.2%
#329
Forced TO %
21.1%
#10
FT rate
38.4%
#92
FT allowed
42.6%
#331
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers+3.0
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed−1.9

Rhode Island has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.1 (#175 of 365) to Brown’s −3.1 (#308).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Brown2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Jeremiah JenkinsGSo6'0"27-2730.18.23.95.22.844.6%36.4%3.775.5%22.2%
5Adrian UchidiunoGJr6'2"27-825.39.12.71.11.442.1%26.2%5.481.3%27.4%
40Landon LewisFSr6'7"21-2130.816.67.21.92.356.3%42.9%0.756.5%32.3%
45N'famara DaboFJr6'8"27-2523.37.25.71.00.863.6%0.0%0.056.3%16.7%
12Malcolm Wrisby-JeffersonGJr6'4"27-1122.24.23.62.81.541.5%22.6%1.173.9%16.6%
1Isaiah LanghamGFr6'5"27-1321.18.42.40.91.445.9%18.8%2.470.2%28.2%
23David RochesterFSo6'8"22-722.06.23.41.61.144.2%28.6%1.372.5%19.8%
14Luke ParagonGJr6'4"26-1816.47.11.50.60.559.2%39.0%3.893.5%21.8%
33Charlie O'SullivanFFr6'10"20-011.54.62.10.90.560.4%37.3%2.571.4%21.7%
30Brady LoughlinGFr6'5"12-118.26.52.00.70.959.2%38.8%4.170.0%21.0%
6Wyatt DeGraafFSo6'10"14-39.22.41.60.30.668.2%—0.042.9%15.7%
32Drew KaniaFSr6'8"8-15.41.61.00.10.330.8%—0.071.4%24.9%
4Jonah DreznerGFr6'3"5-05.62.20.40.40.261.1%42.9%1.4—19.4%
11Jerrell Barron Jr.GSo6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
BrownRhode Island
Efficiency
101.4
106.3
107.4
104.4
67.9
67.3
—
—
Shooting
48.6%
50.1%
50.4%
52.8%
30.3%
31.1%
68.4%
72.1%
28.1%
38.4%
Ball control & glass
19.5%
19.2%
18.7%
21.1%
29.0%
31.0%
30.0%
31.8%
11.3%
11.9%
9.4%
10.2%
Style
36.3%
43.5%
50.4%
40.5%
13.3%
16.5%
59.5%
47.9%
37.1%
29.0%
Roster
2.49
3.52
6'4.9"
6'4.5"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Brown
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Brown's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Rhode Island
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Rhode Island's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Tue, Dec 22025-26Brown 56 – 66 Rhode Island

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.