CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLiacouras Center, Philadelphia, PA

Villanova

Efficiency #40

2025-26: 24-9 · 15-6 conf

Temple

Efficiency #168

2025-26: 16-16 · 8-11 conf

Tue, Dec 1 · TBD

73.9

win 60%

Projected

70.9

win 40%

No line posted yet.

Model: VILL −3.1 · total 144.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Temple 66.7, Villanova 66.8 → 65.2 possessions

−6.8

Temple offense vs Villanova defense

−1.7

Villanova offense vs Temple defense

+5.1

Projected total

144.8

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Temple offense vs Villanova defense

−1.7

Villanova offense vs Temple defense

−5.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

Villanova by 3.1

3.1

Villanova side ◂▸ Temple side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Temple.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Villanova is the faster team (66.5, #269 of 365) and Temple the slower (65.4, #320). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

144.8

model

Projected team totals

73.9 / 70.9

Villanova / Temple

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.8#302

Villanova

66.7#310

Temple

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Temple averages 65.4 possessions per 40, Villanova 66.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageVillanova

Where Villanova scores: ball control

Villanova turns it over on 15.0% of possessions (#66); Temple forces turnovers on 15.5% of opponent possessions (#247). Expect about 15.0%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.

ClashVillanova

Style clash: 3-point volume

Villanova takes 45.7% of its shots from three; Temple runs teams off the line (35.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 42.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashTemple

Strength vs strength: free-throw rate

Temple (#52 in free-throw rate) against Villanova (#59 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.7%. Historically Villanova's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).

Villanova has the ball

OffenseTemple allowsvs D1 avg

53.8% #74

50.7% #137

+1.6 pt/100

15.0% #66

15.5% #247

+2.2 pt/100

32.2% #118

30.3% #177

+0.8 pt/100

30.9% #284

35.5% #197

-0.2 pt/100

68.9% #302

—

-0.3 pt/100

Villanova net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.1 pts/100

Temple has the ball

OffenseVillanova allowsvs D1 avg

50.2% #229

51.4% #181

-0.8 pt/100

13.7% #18

18.6% #69

+0.7 pt/100

29.8% #209

31.8% #246

+0.2 pt/100

40.6% #52

30.0% #59

-0.0 pt/100

74.7% #96

—

+0.2 pt/100

Temple net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Villanovaoffense vsTempledefense

Share of shots by zone

Villanova shoots

34.9

6.0

13.6

45.6

Temple allows

39.7

7.5

16.7

36.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.6%#81	58.5%#167	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.5%#91	39.2%#160	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.4%#280	39.1%#205	38.0%
Three	35.7%#77	32.8%#107	33.7%

Templeoffense vsVillanovadefense

Share of shots by zone

Temple shoots

40.0

6.6

17.3

36.1

Villanova allows

37.3

6.9

19.3

36.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.8%#247	60.9%#267	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.7%#250	38.8%#155	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.5%#200	40.0%#243	38.0%
Three	33.6%#194	33.4%#148	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Villanova

+3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#53 of 365

Off reb %

32.2%

#118

Def reb %

68.2%

#246

Turnover %

15.0%

#66

Forced TO %

18.6%

#69

FT rate

30.9%

#284

FT allowed

30.0%

#59

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Temple

+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#76 of 365

Off reb %

29.8%

#209

Def reb %

69.7%

#177

Turnover %

13.7%

#18

Forced TO %

15.5%

#247

FT rate

40.6%

#52

FT allowed

35.5%

#197

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+2.1

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Villanova has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.0 (#53 of 365) to Temple’s +2.6 (#76).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Villanova2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Tyler Perkins	G	Jr	6'4"	33-33	29.8	13.7	5.4	1.6	0.8	53.2%	36.9%	5.4	74.5%	26.3%
2	Bryce Lindsay	G	So	6'3"	33-31	28.5	12.3	2.1	2.1	1.2	49.6%	35.6%	6.6	77.1%	27.1%
33	Matt Hodge	F	Fr	6'8"	29-29	27.6	9.2	3.6	0.7	0.7	57.2%	36.8%	4.7	65.2%	18.9%
7	Malachi Palmer	G	So	6'6"	33-4	18.3	4.6	1.7	0.6	0.5	58.6%	35.9%	2.4	76.2%	14.0%
17	Braden Pierce	C	So	7'0"	30-1	6.5	1.2	0.9	0.5	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	60.0%	11.0%
0	Chris Jeffrey	G	Fr	6'3"	22-0	8.3	3.0	1.0	1.0	0.2	54.3%	35.7%	0.6	80.0%	20.2%
6	Tafara Gapare	F	Sr	6'9"	9-0	16.3	2.9	2.9	0.4	0.7	31.5%	21.4%	1.6	81.8%	15.8%
1	Zion Stanford	G	Jr	6'6"	10-0	5.0	1.3	0.5	0.4	0.7	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	75.0%	23.4%
14	Wade Chiddick	G	Sr	6'4"	1-0	3.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	75.0%	38.5%
15	Malcolm Flaggs	G	So	6'6"	1-0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	30.2%
21	Nico Onyekwere	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Temple2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Derrian Ford	G	Sr	6'3"	31-31	35.7	18.1	4.3	1.9	1.5	48.9%	37.9%	4.3	85.2%	30.0%
32	Jordan Mason	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	33.7	11.8	3.1	4.0	1.6	46.3%	31.3%	2.0	79.8%	23.7%
0	Gavin Griffiths	G	Jr	6'7"	30-29	29.4	10.1	4.9	1.4	1.1	51.8%	33.5%	6.3	52.2%	22.3%
10	Masiah Gilyard	G	Sr	6'3"	31-2	18.0	5.8	4.0	0.5	0.5	50.7%	33.8%	2.5	63.6%	20.2%
1	Jamai Felt	F	So	6'9"	31-23	13.3	3.8	4.1	0.4	0.8	62.0%	0.0%	0.0	58.5%	18.0%
2	Ayuba Bryant Jr.	F	Fr	6'9"	26-2	8.4	1.8	1.7	0.2	0.3	58.6%	0.0%	0.0	45.2%	14.6%
7	Cam Wallace	G	Fr	6'4"	19-0	6.4	2.1	0.7	0.5	0.2	46.8%	36.8%	1.0	55.6%	20.8%
9	AJ Smith	G	Sr	6'5"	8-0	15.0	7.8	1.4	0.8	0.4	53.3%	44.4%	1.1	73.7%	28.4%
4	Mohamed Keita	C	Sr	7'1"	23-0	4.6	0.7	0.9	0.0	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	37.5%	10.8%
8	Spencer Mahoney	F	So	6'8"	13-0	5.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	15.1%
13	Connor Gal	G	Sr	6'4"	4-0	3.3	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	72.2%	25.0%	1.0	—	39.2%
3	CJ Hines	G	Sr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Olin Chamberlain Jr.	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Villanova2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Tyler Perkins	G	Jr	6'4"	33-33	29.8	13.7	5.4	1.6	0.8	53.2%	36.9%	5.4	74.5%	26.3%
2	Bryce Lindsay	G	So	6'3"	33-31	28.5	12.3	2.1	2.1	1.2	49.6%	35.6%	6.6	77.1%	27.1%
33	Matt Hodge	F	Fr	6'8"	29-29	27.6	9.2	3.6	0.7	0.7	57.2%	36.8%	4.7	65.2%	18.9%
7	Malachi Palmer	G	So	6'6"	33-4	18.3	4.6	1.7	0.6	0.5	58.6%	35.9%	2.4	76.2%	14.0%
17	Braden Pierce	C	So	7'0"	30-1	6.5	1.2	0.9	0.5	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	60.0%	11.0%
0	Chris Jeffrey	G	Fr	6'3"	22-0	8.3	3.0	1.0	1.0	0.2	54.3%	35.7%	0.6	80.0%	20.2%
6	Tafara Gapare	F	Sr	6'9"	9-0	16.3	2.9	2.9	0.4	0.7	31.5%	21.4%	1.6	81.8%	15.8%
1	Zion Stanford	G	Jr	6'6"	10-0	5.0	1.3	0.5	0.4	0.7	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	75.0%	23.4%
14	Wade Chiddick	G	Sr	6'4"	1-0	3.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	75.0%	38.5%
15	Malcolm Flaggs	G	So	6'6"	1-0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	30.2%
21	Nico Onyekwere	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Villanova

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

8-9

Road

8-3-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −4.4

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

20-13

Home

11-6

Road

7-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.5

Over 3 straightOver in 6 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#9Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 76–86	+2.0	L−8.0	147.5	O162	111.5	126.2	68.1
Mar 12	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	N	L 64–78	−6.5	L−20.5	141.0	O142	99.4	121.1	64.4
Mar 7	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 91–78	−13.5	L−0.5	154.0	O169	128.2	109.9	71.0
Mar 4	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 76–57	−2.0	W+17.0	136.5	U133	108.2	81.1	70.3
Feb 28	#15St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 57–89	+7.5	L−24.5	148.0	U146	78.6	122.8	72.5
Feb 25	ButlerAdjEM #87	H	W 82–73	−10.5	L−1.5	147.0	O155	116.7	103.9	70.2
Feb 21	#5UConnAdjEM #10	H	L 63–73	+3.0	L−7.0	141.0	U136	100.1	116.0	62.9
Feb 17	XavierAdjEM #129	A	W 92–89 OT	−4.0	L−1.0	153.5	O181	116.7	112.9	78.8
Feb 14	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	W 80–69	−2.5	W+8.5	146.0	O149	115.3	99.5	69.4
Feb 10	MarquetteAdjEM #100	H	W 77–74	−9.5	L−6.5	145.0	O151	109.8	105.5	70.1

Temple

Against the spread

Season

13-18

Home

6-9

Road

7-4

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-14

Home

10-5

Road

4-7

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total −0.9

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	FAUAdjEM #122	N	L 59–63	−1.0	L−5.0	144.5	U122	91.3	97.4	64.7
Mar 8	TulsaAdjEM #46	A	L 76–78	+11.5	W+9.5	150.5	O154	113.6	116.6	66.9
Mar 5	TulaneAdjEM #239	H	W 89–60	−5.0	W+24.0	145.0	O149	132.2	89.1	67.3
Mar 1	RiceAdjEM #255	H	L 74–80	−7.0	L−13.0	142.5	O154	113.5	122.7	65.2
Feb 26	FAUAdjEM #122	A	L 73–77	+4.5	W+0.5	146.0	O150	114.0	120.2	64.0
Feb 21	Wichita StAdjEM #60	A	L 57–69	+8.5	L−3.5	143.5	U126	92.8	112.4	61.4
Feb 18	UABAdjEM #111	H	L 71–76	−1.5	L−6.5	143.5	O147	107.5	115.1	66.0
Feb 15	North TexasAdjEM #151	H	L 62–65	−2.0	L−5.0	135.0	U127	97.2	101.9	63.8
Feb 11	TulaneAdjEM #239	A	L 66–77	+2.0	L−9.0	145.0	U143	97.2	113.4	67.9
Feb 7	East CarolinaAdjEM #272	A	W 81–73	−2.5	W+5.5	139.5	O154	127.2	114.7	63.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

VillanovaTemple

Efficiency

115.0

110.3

104.1

109.9

66.8

66.7

—

Shooting

53.8%

50.2%

54.0%

50.0%

35.7%

33.6%

68.9%

74.7%

30.9%

40.6%

Ball control & glass

15.0%

13.7%

18.6%

15.5%

32.2%

29.8%

31.8%

30.3%

7.6%

8.1%

7.3%

11.4%

Style

45.7%

35.7%

40.3%

43.0%

11.7%

11.8%

56.8%

48.2%

27.3%

26.1%

Roster

2.09

3.39

6'5.5"

6'4.9"

58.6%

72.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Villanova

Returning minutes: 58.6%Returning production: 51.4%

Lost

Acaden Lewis 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg · transferred to Miami
Duke Brennan 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
Devin Askew 23.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nico Onyekwere no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 59% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Temple

Returning minutes: 72.8%Returning production: 71.5%

Lost

Aiden Tobiason 35.4 mpg, 15.3 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
Babatunde Durodola 19.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg · transferred to Ball State

Added

CJ Hines no D1 minutes last season
Olin Chamberlain Jr. no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 73% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Dec 1	2025-26	Temple 56 – 74 Villanova

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.