CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHope Coliseum, Morgantown, WV

Mercyhurst

Efficiency #261

2025-26: 17-17 · 12-9 conf

West Virginia

Efficiency #58

2025-26: 21-14 · 9-10 conf

Tue, Dec 1 · TBD

59.4

win 15%

Projected

71.5

win 85%

No line posted yet.

Model: WVU −12.1 · total 130.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: West Virginia 65.2, Mercyhurst 66.5 → 63.4 possessions

−10.8

West Virginia offense vs Mercyhurst defense

+0.9

Mercyhurst offense vs West Virginia defense

−7.5

Projected total

130.8

Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

West Virginia offense vs Mercyhurst defense

+0.9

Mercyhurst offense vs West Virginia defense

+7.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.6

West Virginia by 12.1

12.1

Mercyhurst side ◂▸ West Virginia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +12.0 against +12.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help West Virginia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 63.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Mercyhurst is the faster team (64.6, #338 of 365) and West Virginia the slower (64.1, #353). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

63.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

130.8

model

Projected team totals

59.4 / 71.5

Mercyhurst / West Virginia

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.5#321

Mercyhurst

65.2#361

West Virginia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

West Virginia averages 64.1 possessions per 40, Mercyhurst 64.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 63 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageMercyhurst

Where Mercyhurst struggles: shooting

Mercyhurst shoots an effective 49.5% (#269); West Virginia allows 48.5% (#50). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.

GlassMercyhurst

Mercyhurst gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.7% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Mercyhurst's offense.

AdvantageWest Virginia

Where West Virginia struggles: ball control

West Virginia turns it over on 16.8% of possessions (#188); Mercyhurst forces turnovers on 18.7% of opponent possessions (#64). Expect about 18.0%, 1.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashWest Virginia

Style clash: 3-point volume

West Virginia takes 43.0% of its shots from three; Mercyhurst runs teams off the line (33.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Mercyhurst has the ball

OffenseWest Virginia allowsvs D1 avg

49.5% #269

48.5% #50

-3.5 pt/100

14.3% #32

17.8% #108

+1.0 pt/100

26.4% #312

28.6% #86

-2.2 pt/100

25.6% #361

29.3% #47

-1.0 pt/100

74.1% #129

—

+0.1 pt/100

Mercyhurst net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.6 pts/100

West Virginia has the ball

OffenseMercyhurst allowsvs D1 avg

51.6% #166

50.1% #107

-0.6 pt/100

16.8% #188

18.7% #64

-1.5 pt/100

30.5% #178

29.9% #153

-0.1 pt/100

35.1% #173

42.6% #332

+0.6 pt/100

68.3% #319

—

-0.4 pt/100

West Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Mercyhurstoffense vsWest Virginiadefense

Share of shots by zone

Mercyhurst shoots

33.8

11.3

23.5

31.3

West Virginia allows

37.1

4.8

19.5

38.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.5%#256	55.2%#66	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.7%#16	36.8%#106	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#43	32.2%#18	38.0%
Three	32.1%#276	34.3%#201	33.7%

West Virginiaoffense vsMercyhurstdefense

Share of shots by zone

West Virginia shoots

38.5

4.6

13.3

43.6

Mercyhurst allows

43.4

8.0

14.4

34.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#150	57.8%#141	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.1%#348	42.7%#245	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.6%#89	33.3%#35	38.0%
Three	33.1%#227	32.3%#80	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Mercyhurst

−2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#278 of 365

Off reb %

26.4%

#312

Def reb %

70.1%

#153

Turnover %

14.3%

#32

Forced TO %

18.7%

#64

FT rate

25.6%

#361

FT allowed

42.6%

#332

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−2.4

Foul shots allowed−1.9

West Virginia

+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#54 of 365

Off reb %

30.5%

#178

Def reb %

71.4%

#86

Turnover %

16.8%

#188

Forced TO %

17.8%

#108

FT rate

35.1%

#173

FT allowed

29.3%

#47

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+1.5

West Virginia has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.9 (#54 of 365) to Mercyhurst’s −2.3 (#278).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Mercyhurst2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Bernie Blunt III	G	Sr	5'11"	34-34	30.9	17.6	3.1	2.2	1.3	49.8%	35.5%	5.9	86.5%	34.1%
11	Jake Lemelman	G	So	6'2"	34-34	30.0	13.9	2.5	3.2	1.7	50.2%	39.6%	4.5	86.4%	30.6%
7	Deshaun Jackson Jr.	G	So	6'2"	34-1	22.4	6.0	3.0	3.0	1.4	46.8%	0.0%	0.1	65.9%	20.6%
10	Christian Gamble	G	Sr	6'0"	34-33	21.1	3.9	1.6	2.1	0.6	44.6%	28.8%	2.1	73.1%	13.9%
5	Mykolas Ivanauskas	F	So	6'8"	32-31	19.6	7.4	5.1	0.4	1.1	57.9%	22.6%	1.0	58.6%	23.6%
1	Sean Lang	G	Sr	6'3"	32-0	13.4	0.8	2.4	1.0	0.3	26.6%	15.8%	0.6	62.5%	6.9%
3	Cameron Johnson	F	Jr	6'5"	33-4	12.2	3.4	2.4	0.5	0.6	44.9%	32.1%	0.8	75.0%	20.8%
15	Kaden Fuhrmann	G	Sr	6'5"	32-0	11.6	3.3	0.8	0.8	0.4	51.6%	31.3%	2.5	87.5%	18.6%
34	James Thomas	F	Sr	6'6"	33-0	9.6	1.4	2.0	0.4	0.3	48.8%	—	0.0	27.3%	12.2%
23	Or Faran	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	5.2	1.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	33.3%	28.6%	0.8	33.3%	20.8%
33	Vladimir Pavlovic	G	Jr	6'2"	8-0	4.4	0.8	0.0	0.4	0.6	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	23.4%
2	Brady Conner	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.0	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.5	11.1%	0.0%	1.0	0.0%	25.1%
13	Chris Leman	F	Fr	6'9"	6-0	4.3	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.3	43.8%	33.3%	0.5	0.0%	24.3%
21	Emilis Butkus	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

West Virginia2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Honor Huff	G	Sr	5'10"	35-35	35.9	16.5	2.3	2.1	1.7	50.0%	35.4%	9.7	86.9%	28.2%
0	Brenen Lorient	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	29.4	11.9	5.2	1.9	1.9	58.0%	35.8%	2.0	70.4%	25.1%
1	Jasper Floyd	G	Sr	6'3"	35-35	28.3	7.0	3.8	3.2	1.9	52.9%	37.7%	1.7	70.0%	17.9%
55	Harlan Obioha	C	Sr	7'0"	35-35	19.9	5.1	4.6	0.8	0.9	52.9%	25.0%	0.1	56.7%	17.3%
13	Chance Moore	G	Sr	6'6"	29-1	22.3	10.6	5.8	0.8	1.3	55.2%	28.1%	1.1	56.3%	29.9%
5	DJ Thomas	F	Fr	6'7"	35-0	16.8	6.6	2.1	0.6	0.7	55.1%	26.9%	2.2	62.5%	24.5%
2	Amir Jenkins	G	Fr	6'2"	32-0	16.0	3.4	2.1	2.0	0.7	37.3%	28.6%	0.9	53.8%	19.2%
23	Morris Ugusuk	G	Jr	6'4"	24-0	11.3	1.4	1.5	0.2	0.1	31.8%	17.1%	1.5	55.6%	11.3%
4	Jayden Forsythe	G	Fr	6'5"	5-0	4.0	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	42.9%	28.6%	1.4	—	22.2%
21	Niyol Hauet	G	Fr	6'4"	6-0	1.8	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	11.6%
8	Abraham Oyeadier	C	Fr	6'9"	1-0	2.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	0.0%	29.3%
7	Evans Barning Jr.	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	MJ Feenane	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Mercyhurst2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Bernie Blunt III	G	Sr	5'11"	34-34	30.9	17.6	3.1	2.2	1.3	49.8%	35.5%	5.9	86.5%	34.1%
11	Jake Lemelman	G	So	6'2"	34-34	30.0	13.9	2.5	3.2	1.7	50.2%	39.6%	4.5	86.4%	30.6%
7	Deshaun Jackson Jr.	G	So	6'2"	34-1	22.4	6.0	3.0	3.0	1.4	46.8%	0.0%	0.1	65.9%	20.6%
10	Christian Gamble	G	Sr	6'0"	34-33	21.1	3.9	1.6	2.1	0.6	44.6%	28.8%	2.1	73.1%	13.9%
5	Mykolas Ivanauskas	F	So	6'8"	32-31	19.6	7.4	5.1	0.4	1.1	57.9%	22.6%	1.0	58.6%	23.6%
1	Sean Lang	G	Sr	6'3"	32-0	13.4	0.8	2.4	1.0	0.3	26.6%	15.8%	0.6	62.5%	6.9%
3	Cameron Johnson	F	Jr	6'5"	33-4	12.2	3.4	2.4	0.5	0.6	44.9%	32.1%	0.8	75.0%	20.8%
15	Kaden Fuhrmann	G	Sr	6'5"	32-0	11.6	3.3	0.8	0.8	0.4	51.6%	31.3%	2.5	87.5%	18.6%
34	James Thomas	F	Sr	6'6"	33-0	9.6	1.4	2.0	0.4	0.3	48.8%	—	0.0	27.3%	12.2%
23	Or Faran	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	5.2	1.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	33.3%	28.6%	0.8	33.3%	20.8%
33	Vladimir Pavlovic	G	Jr	6'2"	8-0	4.4	0.8	0.0	0.4	0.6	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	23.4%
2	Brady Conner	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.0	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.5	11.1%	0.0%	1.0	0.0%	25.1%
13	Chris Leman	F	Fr	6'9"	6-0	4.3	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.3	43.8%	33.3%	0.5	0.0%	24.3%
21	Emilis Butkus	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Mercyhurst

Against the spread

Season

21-11

Home

9-4

Road

12-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-16

Home

7-6

Road

9-10

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +6.0

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 70–79	+5.0	L−4.0	134.0	O149	105.7	119.3	66.2
Mar 7	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	W 56–51	−4.5	W+0.5	135.0	U107	85.4	77.8	65.6
Mar 4	FDUAdjEM #332	H	W 70–61	−4.0	W+5.0	132.5	U131	108.0	94.2	64.8
Feb 28	StonehillAdjEM #320	A	W 75–72 OT	−2.5	W+0.5	138.5	O147	97.9	94.0	76.6
Feb 26	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	L 78–80	+4.0	W+2.0	141.0	O158	114.7	117.7	68.0
Feb 21	Long IslandAdjEM #195	H	W 91–83	+3.5	W+11.5	141.0	O174	130.5	119.0	69.7
Feb 19	WagnerAdjEM #285	H	L 80–83 OT	−3.5	L−6.5	134.5	O163	107.3	111.4	74.5
Feb 14	Saint Francis Red Wolves	A	W 94–79	−2.0	W+13.0	138.5	O173	137.0	115.1	68.6
Feb 12	Le MoyneAdjEM #270	A	L 57–58	+2.5	W+1.5	138.5	U115	82.7	84.2	68.9
Feb 7	FDUAdjEM #332	A	L 52–55	+2.5	L−0.5	131.0	U107	95.9	101.4	54.3

West Virginia

Against the spread

Season

18-17

Home

10-8

Road

3-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.1

Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-22

Home

5-13

Road

2-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.9

Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 5	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	W 89–82 OT	+3.0	W+10.0	138.5	O171	123.9	114.2	71.8
Apr 4	CreightonAdjEM #92	N	W 87–70	−1.5	W+15.5	137.0	O157	128.7	103.6	67.6
Apr 2	StanfordAdjEM #77	N	W 82–77 OT	−2.0	W+3.0	135.5	O159	111.7	104.9	73.4
Mar 11	BYUAdjEM #26	N	L 48–68	+3.5	L−16.5	141.0	U116	76.6	108.5	62.6
Mar 6	UCFAdjEM #70	H	W 77–62	−4.5	W+10.5	141.5	U139	115.4	92.9	66.7
Mar 3	Kansas StAdjEM #128	A	L 63–65	−4.0	L−6.0	141.5	U128	94.4	97.4	66.7
Feb 28	#19BYUAdjEM #26	H	W 79–71	+2.0	W+10.0	141.0	O150	124.9	112.3	63.2
Feb 24	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	A	L 84–91 OT	−1.0	L−8.0	143.5	O175	115.4	125.1	72.8
Feb 21	TCUAdjEM #51	A	L 54–60	+4.5	L−1.5	133.5	U114	89.6	99.6	60.3
Feb 18	UtahAdjEM #177	H	L 56–61	−10.5	L−15.5	134.0	U117	91.7	99.9	61.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MercyhurstWest Virginia

Efficiency

103.8

109.6

108.8

101.3

66.5

65.2

—

Shooting

49.5%

51.6%

50.0%

53.1%

32.1%

33.1%

74.1%

68.3%

25.6%

35.1%

Ball control & glass

14.3%

16.8%

18.7%

17.8%

26.4%

30.5%

29.9%

28.6%

7.7%

9.6%

6.3%

11.4%

Style

31.1%

43.0%

46.5%

43.1%

11.3%

10.4%

54.2%

51.9%

34.3%

30.1%

Roster

3.05

3.39

6'2.6"

6'4.7"

84.5%

84.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Mercyhurst

Returning minutes: 84.5%Returning production: 78.6%

Lost

Qadir Martin 31.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg · transferred to Fairfield

Added

Emilis Butkus no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

West Virginia

Returning minutes: 84.2%Returning production: 85.1%

Lost

Treysen Eaglestaff 28.6 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jackson Fields 3.7 mpg, 1.1 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech

Added

MJ Feenane no D1 minutes last season
Evans Barning Jr. no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Nov 30	2025-26	Mercyhurst 38 – 70 West Virginia

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.