CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameCameron Hall, Lexington, VA

UNC Greensboro

Efficiency #301

2025-26: 15-19 · 11-10 conf

VMI

Efficiency #361

2025-26: 6-26 · 1-18 conf

Tue, Dec 1 · TBD

78.2

win 58%

Projected

75.9

win 42%

No line posted yet.

Model: UNCG −2.3 · total 154.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: VMI 67.9, UNC Greensboro 68.6 → 68.2 possessions

−0.3

VMI offense vs UNC Greensboro defense

0.0

UNC Greensboro offense vs VMI defense

+6.2

Projected total

154.1

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

VMI offense vs UNC Greensboro defense

0.0

UNC Greensboro offense vs VMI defense

−6.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

UNC Greensboro by 2.3

2.3

UNC Greensboro side ◂▸ VMI side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help VMI.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UNC Greensboro is the faster team (68.5, #170 of 365) and VMI the slower (67.6, #219). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.1

model

Projected team totals

78.2 / 75.9

UNC Greensboro / VMI

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#161

UNC Greensboro

67.9#215

VMI

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashVMI

Style match: 3-point volume

VMI takes 53.6% of its shots from three; UNC Greensboro lets opponents take 46.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 55.4% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageUNC Greensboro

Where UNC Greensboro scores: shooting

UNC Greensboro shoots an effective 52.0% (#146); VMI allows 57.0% (#357). Expect about 54.6%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageVMI

Where VMI scores: ball control

VMI turns it over on 15.3% of possessions (#88); UNC Greensboro forces turnovers on 13.7% of opponent possessions (#343). Expect about 14.0%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.

GlassVMI

VMI gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.4% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against VMI's offense.

TurnoversUNC Greensboro

UNC Greensboro protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for UNC Greensboro's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (VMI's defense, UNC Greensboro's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UNC Greensboro at about 44.6% of its shots from three, VMI about 55.4%.

UNC Greensboro has the ball

OffenseVMI allowsvs D1 avg

52.0% #146

57.0% #357

+4.7 pt/100

15.0% #63

15.7% #241

+2.1 pt/100

28.1% #259

37.2% #360

+1.1 pt/100

42.0% #31

34.6% #168

+0.4 pt/100

70.4% #256

—

-0.2 pt/100

UNC Greensboro net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.1 pts/100

VMI has the ball

OffenseUNC Greensboro allowsvs D1 avg

47.6% #325

56.2% #347

+0.5 pt/100

15.3% #88

13.7% #343

+3.5 pt/100

25.6% #330

29.0% #104

-2.4 pt/100

30.6% #293

30.6% #74

-0.6 pt/100

72.2% #201

—

-0.0 pt/100

VMI net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UNC Greensborooffense vsVMIdefense

Share of shots by zone

UNC Greensboro shoots

34.6

5.7

19.9

39.9

VMI allows

34.3

4.7

14.4

46.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.0%#197	66.0%#359	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.2%#100	49.3%#351	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.8%#83	44.7%#347	38.0%
Three	35.6%#80	36.5%#327	33.7%

VMIoffense vsUNC Greensborodefense

Share of shots by zone

VMI shoots

32.1

4.2

9.7

53.9

UNC Greensboro allows

33.7

5.0

14.7

46.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.5%#327	63.6%#336	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	19.7%#365	44.4%#279	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.6%#246	37.9%#155	38.0%
Three	31.5%#306	38.0%#357	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UNC Greensboro

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#102 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#259

Def reb %

71.0%

#104

Turnover %

15.0%

#63

Forced TO %

13.7%

#343

FT rate

42.0%

#31

FT allowed

30.6%

#74

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−2.1

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+1.2

VMI

−4.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#337 of 365

Off reb %

25.6%

#330

Def reb %

62.8%

#360

Turnover %

15.3%

#88

Forced TO %

15.7%

#241

FT rate

30.6%

#293

FT allowed

34.6%

#168

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.5

Defensive rebounding−2.1

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+0.2

UNC Greensboro has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#102 of 365) to VMI’s −4.4 (#337).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UNC Greensboro2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Justin Neely	F	Sr	6'6"	34-34	32.3	17.9	11.5	2.4	2.2	56.5%	31.4%	1.5	78.4%	29.6%
21	KJ Younger	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	28.5	15.1	4.7	1.2	1.2	52.9%	34.1%	5.4	71.1%	29.8%
13	Donald Whitehead Jr.	G	Sr	5'10"	34-20	26.2	10.1	1.6	2.4	1.1	45.7%	30.7%	4.9	69.2%	24.8%
6	Noah Norgaard	G	Fr	6'2"	34-26	25.1	7.7	2.1	1.5	1.2	51.1%	37.2%	3.8	70.0%	19.5%
11	Valentino Pinedo	F	Sr	6'8"	32-28	26.4	7.3	4.9	1.3	1.0	60.8%	—	0.0	50.0%	15.9%
45	Lilian Marville	G	Fr	6'1"	31-21	26.2	9.5	2.0	2.3	1.3	56.5%	52.2%	3.0	75.0%	20.7%
16	Domas Kauzonas	F	Jr	6'10"	33-6	9.9	2.9	1.6	0.3	0.7	57.5%	—	0.0	42.3%	19.2%
4	Assane Mandian	G	Fr	6'7"	22-0	8.0	2.2	1.0	0.2	0.4	56.4%	37.0%	1.2	100.0%	16.2%
24	Landon King	G	Jr	6'1"	20-1	8.6	2.5	0.9	0.7	0.3	44.4%	32.4%	1.9	42.9%	21.5%
7	Clyde Bailey II	G	Sr	6'1"	13-0	6.7	1.8	0.9	0.4	0.3	52.8%	27.3%	0.8	80.0%	15.6%
0	Antwann Jones	G	Sr	6'6"	7-0	11.4	3.4	2.1	0.4	0.9	47.9%	37.5%	1.1	50.0%	21.8%
8	Chane Bynum	F	Fr	6'9"	13-0	4.2	1.7	1.5	0.2	0.2	36.5%	23.1%	1.0	75.0%	29.5%
9	Braylen Bowman	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	3.2	1.6	0.4	1.2	0.0	66.7%	50.0%	0.8	—	18.6%
3	Jordan Brown	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

VMI2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
44	TJ Johnson	F	Jr	6'7"	31-31	35.6	18.3	7.2	1.4	1.6	52.7%	35.5%	10.0	81.9%	29.0%
4	Linus Holmstrom	G	So	6'3"	31-29	27.2	11.4	2.5	1.7	1.4	58.0%	39.4%	6.4	76.2%	23.3%
2	Mario Tatum Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	31-8	25.9	8.5	2.0	1.4	0.6	45.3%	27.3%	3.2	64.6%	21.1%
0	Cal Liston	F	So	6'5"	32-24	23.0	5.3	3.2	1.0	0.7	50.3%	33.3%	3.7	72.0%	14.8%
5	AJ Clark	G	Jr	6'4"	22-22	26.5	6.6	6.0	1.6	1.1	50.4%	37.0%	1.2	66.7%	16.2%
6	Kaden Stuckey	F	So	6'8"	28-7	18.7	4.4	4.9	0.5	1.1	35.3%	0.0%	0.5	62.9%	20.2%
14	Walker Andrews	G	So	6'1"	29-3	13.4	5.9	0.9	0.7	0.3	49.0%	33.3%	3.4	84.4%	24.9%
7	Jaylen Pazon	G	So	6'5"	20-1	13.4	6.7	2.2	0.7	1.1	44.9%	17.6%	1.7	71.1%	33.3%
9	Alexander Daushvili	F	Fr	6'8"	5-3	17.2	6.8	4.2	1.0	0.6	41.2%	0.0%	1.4	83.3%	21.0%
3	Mason Hagedorn	F	So	6'9"	7-1	9.0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.1	30.4%	36.4%	1.6	—	20.6%
10	Branford Edmonds III	G	So	6'2"	5-0	5.6	2.6	1.6	0.0	0.2	65.0%	37.5%	1.6	—	19.9%
42	Mason Lawson	G	So	6'1"	4-0	1.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	150.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	20.8%
1	Rickey Bradley Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
32	Robert Peters	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UNC Greensboro2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Justin Neely	F	Sr	6'6"	34-34	32.3	17.9	11.5	2.4	2.2	56.5%	31.4%	1.5	78.4%	29.6%
21	KJ Younger	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	28.5	15.1	4.7	1.2	1.2	52.9%	34.1%	5.4	71.1%	29.8%
13	Donald Whitehead Jr.	G	Sr	5'10"	34-20	26.2	10.1	1.6	2.4	1.1	45.7%	30.7%	4.9	69.2%	24.8%
6	Noah Norgaard	G	Fr	6'2"	34-26	25.1	7.7	2.1	1.5	1.2	51.1%	37.2%	3.8	70.0%	19.5%
11	Valentino Pinedo	F	Sr	6'8"	32-28	26.4	7.3	4.9	1.3	1.0	60.8%	—	0.0	50.0%	15.9%
45	Lilian Marville	G	Fr	6'1"	31-21	26.2	9.5	2.0	2.3	1.3	56.5%	52.2%	3.0	75.0%	20.7%
16	Domas Kauzonas	F	Jr	6'10"	33-6	9.9	2.9	1.6	0.3	0.7	57.5%	—	0.0	42.3%	19.2%
4	Assane Mandian	G	Fr	6'7"	22-0	8.0	2.2	1.0	0.2	0.4	56.4%	37.0%	1.2	100.0%	16.2%
24	Landon King	G	Jr	6'1"	20-1	8.6	2.5	0.9	0.7	0.3	44.4%	32.4%	1.9	42.9%	21.5%
7	Clyde Bailey II	G	Sr	6'1"	13-0	6.7	1.8	0.9	0.4	0.3	52.8%	27.3%	0.8	80.0%	15.6%
0	Antwann Jones	G	Sr	6'6"	7-0	11.4	3.4	2.1	0.4	0.9	47.9%	37.5%	1.1	50.0%	21.8%
8	Chane Bynum	F	Fr	6'9"	13-0	4.2	1.7	1.5	0.2	0.2	36.5%	23.1%	1.0	75.0%	29.5%
9	Braylen Bowman	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	3.2	1.6	0.4	1.2	0.0	66.7%	50.0%	0.8	—	18.6%
3	Jordan Brown	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UNC Greensboro

Against the spread

Season

14-17-1

Home

5-7

Road

5-8

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +4.9

Covered 5 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

22-10

Home

9-3

Road

10-3

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.3

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	FurmanAdjEM #163	N	L 75–81	+6.0	P0.0	148.5	O156	114.3	123.4	65.6
Mar 7	WoffordAdjEM #235	N	W 75–72	+5.5	W+8.5	156.5	U147	114.3	109.7	65.6
Mar 6	VMIAdjEM #361	N	W 84–70	−6.5	W+7.5	156.0	U154	124.6	103.8	67.4
Feb 28	SamfordAdjEM #202	A	L 78–87	+9.5	W+0.5	157.0	O165	107.4	119.8	72.6
Feb 26	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	W 85–80	+3.5	W+8.5	157.5	O165	110.8	104.3	76.7
Feb 21	ETSUAdjEM #110	H	L 75–87	+6.0	L−6.0	149.0	O162	112.1	130.1	66.9
Feb 18	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	A	L 77–91	+6.0	L−8.0	155.0	O168	109.3	129.1	70.5
Feb 14	WoffordAdjEM #235	H	W 99–89	+2.0	W+12.0	155.5	O188	141.1	126.8	70.2
Feb 11	VMIAdjEM #361	H	W 92–71	−8.5	W+12.5	151.0	O163	133.0	102.7	69.2
Feb 8	FurmanAdjEM #163	A	W 67–64	+10.5	W+13.5	150.0	U131	106.3	101.5	63.0

VMI

Against the spread

Season

8-19-2

Home

2-9

Road

6-8-1

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 6 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

13-16

Home

6-5

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +4.2

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 6 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	N	L 70–84	+6.5	L−7.5	156.0	U154	103.8	124.6	67.4
Feb 28	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	L 79–86	+11.5	W+4.5	155.0	O165	124.6	135.7	63.4
Feb 26	SamfordAdjEM #202	A	L 61–80	+17.0	L−2.0	156.0	U141	93.0	122.0	65.6
Feb 21	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	H	L 62–81	+9.0	L−10.0	155.0	U143	98.2	128.3	63.2
Feb 18	WoffordAdjEM #235	A	L 76–82	+13.5	W+7.5	158.5	U158	110.3	119.0	68.9
Feb 14	FurmanAdjEM #163	H	L 72–90	+12.0	L−6.0	146.5	O162	101.4	126.8	71.0
Feb 11	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	A	L 71–92	+8.5	L−12.5	151.0	O163	102.7	133.0	69.2
Feb 7	ETSUAdjEM #110	H	L 70–87	+14.5	L−2.5	144.0	O157	99.1	123.2	70.6
Feb 4	WoffordAdjEM #235	H	L 67–81	+9.0	L−5.0	150.0	U148	98.9	119.6	67.7
Jan 31	MercerAdjEM #161	A	L 81–95	+18.0	W+4.0	153.5	O176	111.4	130.7	72.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UNC GreensboroVMI

Efficiency

107.8

101.8

115.2

118.2

68.6

67.9

—

Shooting

52.0%

47.6%

51.0%

47.9%

35.6%

31.5%

70.4%

72.2%

42.0%

30.6%

Ball control & glass

15.0%

15.3%

13.7%

15.7%

28.1%

25.6%

29.0%

37.2%

8.7%

8.6%

9.1%

10.5%

Style

40.2%

53.6%

37.8%

32.8%

11.3%

11.0%

46.9%

50.7%

29.3%

28.4%

Roster

2.57

2.15

6'3.7"

6'4.8"

92.8%

84.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UNC Greensboro

Returning minutes: 92.8%Returning production: 95.0%

Lost

Clinton Efinda 14.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg · transferred to Canisius

Added

Jordan Brown no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

VMI

Returning minutes: 84.9%Returning production: 84.7%

Lost

Tan Yildizoglu 30.2 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Siena

Added

Robert Peters no D1 minutes last season
Rickey Bradley Jr. no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Mar 6	2025-26	VMI 70 – 84 UNC Greensboro(N)
Wed, Feb 11	2025-26	VMI 71 – 92 UNC Greensboro
Wed, Jan 21	2025-26	UNC Greensboro 85 – 78 VMI

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.