CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceWintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
North Alabama
Efficiency #343
2025-26: 9-21 · 4-15 conf
@
DePaul
Efficiency #113
2025-26: 16-16 · 8-13 conf
Tue, Dec 1 · TBD
62.5
win 12%
Projected
76.1
win 88%
No line posted yet.
Model: DEP −13.6 · total 138.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: DePaul 67.7, North Alabama 66.6 → 66.0 possessions
−5.0
DePaul offense vs North Alabama defense
+2.6
North Alabama offense vs DePaul defense
−7.2
Projected total
138.6
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
DePaul offense vs North Alabama defense
+2.6
North Alabama offense vs DePaul defense
+7.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
DePaul by 13.6
13.6
North Alabama side ◂▸ DePaul side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help DePaul.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, DePaul is the faster team (67.7, #213 of 365) and North Alabama the slower (65.6, #313). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.6
model
Projected team totals
62.5 / 76.1
North Alabama / DePaul
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.6#312
North Alabama
67.7#236
DePaul
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageNorth Alabama
Where North Alabama struggles: shooting
North Alabama shoots an effective 48.0% (#312); DePaul allows 49.3% (#77). Expect about 48.4%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
DePaul averages 67.7 possessions per 40, North Alabama 65.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashNorth Alabama
Style match: 3-point volume
North Alabama rarely shoots threes (33.7% of its shots); DePaul runs teams off the line (33.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.2% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversNorth Alabama
North Alabama turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.4% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against North Alabama's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (North Alabama) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect North Alabama at about 31.2% of its shots from three, DePaul about 41.6%.
AdvantageDePaul
Where DePaul scores: shooting
DePaul shoots an effective 49.8% (#243); North Alabama allows 55.2% (#337). Expect about 52.5%, 1.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions.
North Alabama has the ball
OffenseDePaul allowsvs D1 avg
48.0% #312
49.3% #77
-4.1 pt/100
17.5% #240
18.6% #67
-2.0 pt/100
31.2% #160
31.1% #205
+0.5 pt/100
37.6% #111
37.8% #257
+0.4 pt/100
68.4% #315
—
-0.3 pt/100
North Alabama net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.6 pts/100
DePaul has the ball
OffenseNorth Alabama allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #243
55.2% #337
+1.7 pt/100
17.8% #256
14.5% #321
+1.1 pt/100
30.0% #197
32.2% #268
+0.4 pt/100
35.3% #169
30.3% #68
-0.3 pt/100
69.2% #295
—
-0.3 pt/100
DePaul net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNorth Alabamaoffense vsDePauldefense
Share of shots by zone
North Alabama shoots
46.4
5.7
13.8
34.2
DePaul allows
39.4
6.5
21.2
33.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.8%#302 | 53.6%#34 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.0%#244 | 35.3%#65 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.5%#300 | 36.2%#117 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.7%#327 | 35.4%#274 | 33.7% |
DePauloffense vsNorth Alabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
DePaul shoots
38.2
5.5
17.5
38.8
North Alabama allows
40.9
3.9
11.9
43.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.4%#287 | 60.2%#239 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.9%#66 | 53.3%#362 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.4%#255 | 41.4%#288 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.5%#253 | 35.7%#292 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNorth Alabama
−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#192 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#160
Def reb %
67.8%
#268
Turnover %
17.5%
#240
Forced TO %
14.5%
#321
FT rate
37.6%
#111
FT allowed
30.3%
#68
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed+1.3
DePaul
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#188 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#197
Def reb %
68.9%
#205
Turnover %
17.8%
#256
Forced TO %
18.6%
#67
FT rate
35.3%
#169
FT allowed
37.8%
#257
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.7
DePaul has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#188 of 365) to North Alabama’s −0.4 (#192).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
North Alabama2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted North Alabama's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donte Bacchus | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-29 | 33.4 | 14.7 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50.8% | 27.1% | 2.0 | 64.0% | 27.1% | |
| 34 | Dallas Howell | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-29 | 31.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 46.0% | 30.2% | 6.6 | 64.5% | 19.0% | |
| 2 | Corneilous Williams | F | Jr | 6'9" | 29-29 | 32.5 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 55.1% | — | 0.0 | 72.5% | 21.6% | |
| 8 | Kevin de Kovachich | G | So | 6'4" | 30-30 | 31.2 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 47.4% | 33.7% | 3.5 | 79.2% | 25.2% | |
| 4 | Canin Jefferson | G | Jr | 6'2" | 22-18 | 30.1 | 12.4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 47.2% | 29.0% | 4.5 | 74.7% | 27.6% | |
| 3 | Braylon Patton | G | Fr | 6'0" | 26-12 | 17.1 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 50.4% | 25.7% | 1.3 | 56.8% | 28.4% | |
| 12 | Cortez Graham-Howard | G | Fr | 6'5" | 27-0 | 13.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46.3% | 33.3% | 1.3 | 61.9% | 21.8% | |
| 25 | DarKaun King | F | So | 6'7" | 17-1 | 14.6 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 51.7% | 40.0% | 1.2 | 66.7% | 18.3% | |
| 35 | Jamal Albritton | C | Sr | 6'9" | 28-1 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 56.5% | — | 0.0 | 36.4% | 10.0% | |
| 5 | Kedar Bodie | G | Jr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 31.6% | 36.4% | 0.9 | 70.0% | 23.9% | |
| 0 | Tank Washington | F | Jr | 6'7" | 9-1 | 9.9 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 28.9% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 14.4% | |
| 55 | King Walker | G | Fr | 6'6" | 12-0 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 37.5% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 10.8% | |
| 21 | Israel Jenrette | C | So | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Mitchell Chaffee | C | Sr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
DePaul2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted DePaul's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Layden Blocker | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-29 | 29.1 | 11.1 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 41.7% | 31.8% | 3.4 | 82.8% | 27.3% | |
| 11 | CJ Gunn | G | Sr | 6'7" | 32-23 | 27.7 | 13.1 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 47.3% | 32.7% | 5.3 | 72.5% | 32.1% | |
| 5 | RJ Smith | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-23 | 27.7 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 46.1% | 30.8% | 3.8 | 75.0% | 16.7% | |
| 35 | NJ Benson | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 25.9 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 63.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.5% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Brandon Maclin | G | Sr | 6'3" | 29-16 | 27.6 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 48.5% | 30.6% | 2.5 | 69.5% | 25.2% | |
| 22 | Kruz McClure | G | Fr | 6'6" | 28-4 | 18.6 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 41.6% | 29.9% | 2.8 | 74.1% | 20.7% | |
| 1 | Kaleb Banks | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-11 | 16.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 54.0% | 35.5% | 2.0 | 74.1% | 19.5% | |
| 21 | Theo Pierre-Justin | F | So | 6'10" | 30-22 | 15.5 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 54.5% | 39.7% | 2.1 | 61.1% | 15.7% | |
| 15 | Fabian Flores | C | Fr | 7'2" | 28-1 | 10.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 68.1% | — | 0.0 | 64.0% | 13.8% | |
| 10 | Ilija Milijasevic | G | Jr | 6'2" | 15-0 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 53.6% | 35.7% | 1.9 | 75.0% | 16.4% | |
| 32 | Jeremy Lorenz | F | Jr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 15.4% | |
| 14 | Khaman Maker | C | So | 7'1" | 12-0 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 25.0% | 16.1% | |
| 3 | Nate Kasher | G | Fr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 18.7% | |
| 52 | Amsal Delalic | G | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Isaiah Medina | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Jonas Johnson | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
North Alabama2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted North Alabama's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donte Bacchus | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-29 | 33.4 | 14.7 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50.8% | 27.1% | 2.0 | 64.0% | 27.1% | |
| 34 | Dallas Howell | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-29 | 31.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 46.0% | 30.2% | 6.6 | 64.5% | 19.0% | |
| 2 | Corneilous Williams | F | Jr | 6'9" | 29-29 | 32.5 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 55.1% | — | 0.0 | 72.5% | 21.6% | |
| 8 | Kevin de Kovachich | G | So | 6'4" | 30-30 | 31.2 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 47.4% | 33.7% | 3.5 | 79.2% | 25.2% | |
| 4 | Canin Jefferson | G | Jr | 6'2" | 22-18 | 30.1 | 12.4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 47.2% | 29.0% | 4.5 | 74.7% | 27.6% | |
| 3 | Braylon Patton | G | Fr | 6'0" | 26-12 | 17.1 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 50.4% | 25.7% | 1.3 | 56.8% | 28.4% | |
| 12 | Cortez Graham-Howard | G | Fr | 6'5" | 27-0 | 13.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46.3% | 33.3% | 1.3 | 61.9% | 21.8% | |
| 25 | DarKaun King | F | So | 6'7" | 17-1 | 14.6 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 51.7% | 40.0% | 1.2 | 66.7% | 18.3% | |
| 35 | Jamal Albritton | C | Sr | 6'9" | 28-1 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 56.5% | — | 0.0 | 36.4% | 10.0% | |
| 5 | Kedar Bodie | G | Jr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 31.6% | 36.4% | 0.9 | 70.0% | 23.9% | |
| 0 | Tank Washington | F | Jr | 6'7" | 9-1 | 9.9 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 28.9% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 14.4% | |
| 55 | King Walker | G | Fr | 6'6" | 12-0 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 37.5% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 10.8% | |
| 21 | Israel Jenrette | C | So | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Mitchell Chaffee | C | Sr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26North Alabama
Against the spread
Season
10-18
Home
3-8
Road
7-9
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −3.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
12-16
Home
7-4
Road
5-11
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −3.0
Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | FGCU | N | L 58–69 | +7.5 | L−3.5 | 139.5 | U127 | 93.1 | 110.7 | 62.3 |
| Feb 28 | West Georgia | A | L 63–75 | +5.0 | L−7.0 | 146.5 | U138 | 91.9 | 109.4 | 68.5 |
| Feb 25 | Bellarmine | H | W 73–68 | +3.0 | W+8.0 | 147.0 | U141 | 124.0 | 115.5 | 58.8 |
| Feb 21 | Lipscomb | A | L 51–73 | +12.0 | L−10.0 | 149.5 | U124 | 81.6 | 116.8 | 62.5 |
| Feb 18 | Queens | H | L 78–85 | +8.5 | W+1.5 | 155.5 | O163 | 115.7 | 126.1 | 67.4 |
| Feb 15 | E Kentucky | H | W 84–78 OT | +4.5 | W+10.5 | 149.5 | O162 | 112.6 | 104.6 | 74.6 |
| Feb 11 | West Georgia | H | L 73–82 | −1.0 | L−10.0 | 145.5 | O155 | 113.0 | 126.9 | 64.6 |
| Feb 9 | C Arkansas | H | L 65–72 | +6.5 | L−0.5 | 145.0 | U137 | 96.4 | 106.8 | 67.4 |
| Feb 7 | Austin Peay | A | L 62–91 | +12.5 | L−16.5 | 145.5 | O153 | 100.4 | 147.3 | 61.8 |
| Feb 4 | C Arkansas | A | L 60–81 | +10.5 | L−10.5 | 147.0 | U141 | 90.3 | 121.9 | 66.4 |
DePaul
Against the spread
Season
18-13-1
Home
9-9
Road
8-2-1
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −2.2
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
11-20-1
Home
7-10-1
Road
3-8
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −5.8
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Georgetown | N | L 56–63 | −5.0 | L−12.0 | 130.0 | U119 | 89.0 | 100.2 | 62.9 |
| Mar 7 | Butler | H | L 71–81 | −4.0 | L−14.0 | 142.5 | O152 | 96.8 | 110.4 | 73.4 |
| Mar 4 | Villanova | H | L 57–76 | +2.0 | L−17.0 | 136.5 | U133 | 81.1 | 108.2 | 70.3 |
| Mar 1 | Marquette | A | W 62–51 | +4.5 | W+15.5 | 139.5 | U113 | 98.0 | 80.6 | 63.2 |
| Feb 25 | Creighton | A | W 72–71 | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 142.5 | O143 | 110.8 | 109.3 | 65.0 |
| Feb 21 | Providence | H | L 68–71 | −3.0 | L−6.0 | 152.5 | U139 | 101.2 | 105.7 | 67.2 |
| Feb 18 | Seton Hall | A | W 69–57 | +7.0 | W+19.0 | 129.0 | U126 | 106.6 | 88.0 | 64.7 |
| Feb 11 | Creighton | H | W 72–71 | +1.0 | W+2.0 | 141.0 | O143 | 116.4 | 114.8 | 61.9 |
| Feb 7 | Providence | A | L 72–90 | +5.0 | L−13.0 | 153.5 | O162 | 100.6 | 125.8 | 71.5 |
| Feb 3 | #22St John's | H | L 56–68 | +9.5 | L−2.5 | 145.0 | U124 | 85.3 | 103.6 | 65.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNorth AlabamaDePaul
Efficiency
102.5
106.3
114.6
103.5
66.6
67.7
—
—
Shooting
48.0%
49.8%
49.1%
50.5%
30.7%
32.5%
68.4%
69.2%
37.6%
35.3%
Ball control & glass
17.5%
17.8%
14.5%
18.6%
31.2%
30.0%
32.2%
31.1%
11.0%
10.8%
9.9%
10.7%
Style
33.7%
39.0%
48.1%
42.9%
9.8%
13.1%
40.5%
60.9%
22.2%
35.0%
Roster
2.88
3.13
6'5.7"
6'5.9"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNorth Alabama
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted North Alabama's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
DePaul
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted DePaul's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.