CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBryce Jordan Center, University Park, PA
UAlbany
Efficiency #306
2025-26: 11-21 · 7-10 conf
@
Penn State
Efficiency #194
2025-26: 12-20 · 3-18 conf
Tue, Dec 1 · TBD
71.0
win 23%
Projected
79.5
win 77%
No line posted yet.
Model: PSU −8.5 · total 150.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Penn State 68.4, UAlbany 67.0 → 67.1 possessions
−2.7
Penn State offense vs UAlbany defense
+4.8
UAlbany offense vs Penn State defense
+0.2
Projected total
150.5
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Penn State offense vs UAlbany defense
+4.8
UAlbany offense vs Penn State defense
−0.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Penn State by 8.5
8.5
UAlbany side ◂▸ Penn State side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Penn State.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Penn State is the faster team (67.5, #224 of 365) and UAlbany the slower (65.6, #311). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.5
model
Projected team totals
71.0 / 79.5
UAlbany / Penn State
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#291
UAlbany
68.4#175
Penn State
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageUAlbany
Where UAlbany scores: shooting
UAlbany shoots an effective 51.3% (#182); Penn State allows 58.4% (#363). Expect about 55.0%, 3.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantagePenn State
Where Penn State scores: shooting
Penn State shoots an effective 53.0% (#102); UAlbany allows 53.2% (#275). Expect about 53.3%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Penn State averages 67.5 possessions per 40, UAlbany 65.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Penn State's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UAlbany at about 40.5% of its shots from three, Penn State about 39.0%.
TurnoversUAlbany
UAlbany turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.4% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against UAlbany's offense.
TurnoversPenn State
Penn State protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Penn State's offense.
UAlbany has the ball
OffensePenn State allowsvs D1 avg
51.3% #182
58.4% #363
+5.3 pt/100
18.5% #300
17.7% #113
-2.0 pt/100
32.7% #99
31.1% #210
+1.2 pt/100
24.9% #364
27.5% #28
-1.2 pt/100
65.9% #354
—
-0.6 pt/100
UAlbany net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.7 pts/100
Penn State has the ball
OffenseUAlbany allowsvs D1 avg
53.0% #102
53.2% #275
+2.8 pt/100
15.6% #108
15.8% #230
+1.6 pt/100
25.9% #325
32.4% #277
-1.3 pt/100
33.8% #219
35.7% #202
-0.0 pt/100
75.0% #83
—
+0.2 pt/100
Penn State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersUAlbanyoffense vsPenn Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
UAlbany shoots
42.2
6.8
13.1
37.9
Penn State allows
39.1
5.8
12.5
42.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.1%#228 | 67.3%#362 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 49.0%#14 | 35.2%#63 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.9%#146 | 43.7%#338 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.6%#248 | 38.8%#363 | 33.7% |
Penn Stateoffense vsUAlbanydefense
Share of shots by zone
Penn State shoots
38.7
5.6
17.9
37.7
UAlbany allows
40.4
5.2
13.7
40.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.1%#69 | 56.9%#110 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.5%#111 | 41.3%#219 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.8%#42 | 39.6%#225 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.4%#263 | 36.0%#302 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersUAlbany
−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#336 of 365
Off reb %
32.7%
#99
Def reb %
67.6%
#277
Turnover %
18.5%
#300
Forced TO %
15.8%
#230
FT rate
24.9%
#364
FT allowed
35.7%
#202
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−2.6
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Penn State
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#118 of 365
Off reb %
25.9%
#325
Def reb %
68.9%
#210
Turnover %
15.6%
#108
Forced TO %
17.7%
#113
FT rate
33.8%
#219
FT allowed
27.5%
#28
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+0.7
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+2.0
Penn State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#118 of 365) to UAlbany’s −4.3 (#336).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
UAlbany2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Amir Lindsey | G | So | 5'11" | 31-31 | 37.6 | 17.9 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 51.7% | 34.9% | 5.6 | 79.2% | 29.2% | |
| 00 | Okechukwu Okeke | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-25 | 29.8 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 69.3% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 56.5% | 20.5% | |
| 5 | Isaac Abidde | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-29 | 25.3 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 56.1% | 36.2% | 4.0 | 65.0% | 22.9% | |
| 11 | Jaden Kempson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 24-20 | 31.0 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 43.1% | 29.5% | 3.3 | 62.2% | 24.9% | |
| 14 | Zacharie Matulu | G | So | 6'4" | 21-18 | 28.4 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 57.0% | 36.0% | 4.1 | 75.0% | 21.0% | |
| 4 | Miles Rose | G | So | 6'4" | 29-6 | 15.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 41.0% | 33.3% | 0.6 | 36.7% | 19.6% | |
| 24 | Tarique Foster | F | Jr | 6'8" | 22-8 | 20.3 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 48.8% | 33.3% | 4.1 | 64.7% | 20.3% | |
| 13 | Ma'Kye Taylor | F | So | 6'7" | 31-4 | 13.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 47.5% | 9.1% | 0.7 | 45.0% | 19.0% | |
| 8 | Nas Muhammad | G | Jr | 6'1" | 15-5 | 20.5 | 9.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 47.6% | 34.2% | 5.3 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 22 | Abdoulaye Fall | G | Jr | 6'10" | 7-7 | 30.7 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 51.9% | 31.8% | 3.1 | 85.7% | 20.8% | |
| 7 | Ife West-Ingram | F | Jr | 6'7" | 9-1 | 14.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 72.6% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 21.2% | |
| 25 | Yaya Keita | C | Jr | 6'9" | 13-4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 51.6% | — | 0.0 | 78.6% | 21.7% | |
| 10 | Bautista Giralt | C | So | 7'0" | 15-2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 62.5% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 20.4% | |
| 33 | Sully Adewale | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Wilkin Paulino | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Will Richardson | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Penn State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Josh Reed | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 28.2 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 55.3% | 36.8% | 2.7 | 87.2% | 22.0% | |
| 4 | Kayden Mingo | G | Fr | 6'3" | 28-28 | 32.1 | 13.7 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 51.2% | 24.4% | 3.1 | 70.5% | 26.9% | |
| 3 | Ivan Juric | F | Fr | 7'0" | 30-26 | 26.4 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 61.6% | 28.3% | 1.8 | 66.1% | 22.5% | |
| 7 | Dominick Stewart | G | So | 6'5" | 32-24 | 22.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 51.5% | 34.8% | 3.5 | 79.1% | 18.1% | |
| 9 | Melih Tunca | G | Fr | 6'5" | 31-12 | 22.8 | 7.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 50.3% | 31.3% | 2.1 | 77.0% | 22.1% | |
| 11 | Eli Rice | G | So | 6'8" | 29-18 | 19.8 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 51.6% | 39.0% | 3.6 | 77.3% | 20.3% | |
| 1 | Mason Blackwood | F | Fr | 6'7" | 26-1 | 12.3 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 54.5% | 22.2% | 1.0 | 77.8% | 12.5% | |
| 22 | Sasa Ciani | F | Jr | 6'10" | 28-4 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 39.8% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 68.2% | 16.0% | |
| 16 | Tibor Mirtic | F | Fr | 6'9" | 15-1 | 14.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 54.3% | 33.3% | 0.2 | 30.8% | 17.6% | |
| 21 | Justin Houser | F | Fr | 7'0" | 18-0 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.5 | 62.5% | 16.2% | |
| 30 | Chris Lotito | F | Fr | 6'7" | 4-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 9.7% | |
| 12 | Reggie Grodin | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
UAlbany2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Amir Lindsey | G | So | 5'11" | 31-31 | 37.6 | 17.9 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 51.7% | 34.9% | 5.6 | 79.2% | 29.2% | |
| 00 | Okechukwu Okeke | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-25 | 29.8 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 69.3% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 56.5% | 20.5% | |
| 5 | Isaac Abidde | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-29 | 25.3 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 56.1% | 36.2% | 4.0 | 65.0% | 22.9% | |
| 11 | Jaden Kempson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 24-20 | 31.0 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 43.1% | 29.5% | 3.3 | 62.2% | 24.9% | |
| 14 | Zacharie Matulu | G | So | 6'4" | 21-18 | 28.4 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 57.0% | 36.0% | 4.1 | 75.0% | 21.0% | |
| 4 | Miles Rose | G | So | 6'4" | 29-6 | 15.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 41.0% | 33.3% | 0.6 | 36.7% | 19.6% | |
| 24 | Tarique Foster | F | Jr | 6'8" | 22-8 | 20.3 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 48.8% | 33.3% | 4.1 | 64.7% | 20.3% | |
| 13 | Ma'Kye Taylor | F | So | 6'7" | 31-4 | 13.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 47.5% | 9.1% | 0.7 | 45.0% | 19.0% | |
| 8 | Nas Muhammad | G | Jr | 6'1" | 15-5 | 20.5 | 9.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 47.6% | 34.2% | 5.3 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 22 | Abdoulaye Fall | G | Jr | 6'10" | 7-7 | 30.7 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 51.9% | 31.8% | 3.1 | 85.7% | 20.8% | |
| 7 | Ife West-Ingram | F | Jr | 6'7" | 9-1 | 14.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 72.6% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 21.2% | |
| 25 | Yaya Keita | C | Jr | 6'9" | 13-4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 51.6% | — | 0.0 | 78.6% | 21.7% | |
| 10 | Bautista Giralt | C | So | 7'0" | 15-2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 62.5% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 20.4% | |
| 33 | Sully Adewale | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Wilkin Paulino | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Will Richardson | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26UAlbany
Against the spread
Season
11-18
Home
4-5
Road
5-12
Last 10
4-6
avg cover +0.6
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-15
Home
4-5
Road
8-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.8
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | UMass Lowell | A | L 76–81 | +3.0 | L−2.0 | 147.5 | O157 | 112.7 | 120.1 | 67.5 |
| Mar 3 | Vermont | A | L 56–69 | +9.0 | L−4.0 | 137.0 | U125 | 91.7 | 112.9 | 61.1 |
| Feb 28 | New Hampshire | H | W 84–61 | −3.0 | W+20.0 | 139.0 | O145 | 125.3 | 91.0 | 67.0 |
| Feb 26 | Maine | H | L 59–70 | −5.5 | L−16.5 | 131.5 | U129 | 98.0 | 116.3 | 60.2 |
| Feb 21 | UMBC | A | L 62–66 | +6.0 | W+2.0 | 145.0 | U128 | 104.1 | 110.9 | 59.5 |
| Feb 19 | NJIT | A | W 81–63 | +4.0 | W+22.0 | 143.0 | O144 | 136.0 | 105.7 | 59.6 |
| Feb 14 | Binghamton | A | W 77–74 | −4.5 | L−1.5 | 137.0 | O151 | 112.4 | 108.0 | 68.5 |
| Feb 7 | UMass Lowell | H | L 79–89 | −3.5 | L−13.5 | 145.0 | O168 | 113.6 | 128.0 | 69.5 |
| Feb 5 | Bryant | A | W 65–63 | +1.0 | W+3.0 | 134.0 | U128 | 107.7 | 104.3 | 60.4 |
| Jan 31 | UMBC | H | L 65–68 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 140.5 | U133 | 102.7 | 107.4 | 63.3 |
Penn State
Against the spread
Season
12-20
Home
7-10
Road
4-7
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −5.2
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
18-14
Home
9-8
Road
8-3
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −1.6
Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | Northwestern | N | L 66–76 | +5.0 | L−5.0 | 144.5 | U142 | 103.9 | 119.6 | 63.6 |
| Mar 8 | Rutgers | A | L 62–74 | +5.0 | L−7.0 | 150.5 | U136 | 89.5 | 106.8 | 69.3 |
| Mar 4 | Ohio State | H | L 62–94 | +7.0 | L−25.0 | 152.0 | O156 | 95.7 | 145.1 | 64.8 |
| Feb 28 | Iowa | H | W 71–69 | +9.0 | W+11.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 119.5 | 116.1 | 59.4 |
| Feb 21 | #9Nebraska | A | L 64–87 | +17.5 | L−5.5 | 147.5 | O151 | 92.2 | 125.4 | 69.4 |
| Feb 18 | Rutgers | H | L 72–85 | −4.5 | L−17.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 105.6 | 124.7 | 68.2 |
| Feb 14 | Oregon | A | L 72–83 | +6.5 | L−4.5 | 147.0 | O155 | 109.7 | 126.5 | 65.6 |
| Feb 11 | Washington | A | W 63–60 | +12.5 | W+15.5 | 153.0 | U123 | 96.3 | 91.7 | 65.4 |
| Feb 8 | USC | H | L 75–77 | +3.0 | W+1.0 | 157.0 | U152 | 103.7 | 106.4 | 72.3 |
| Feb 5 | #2Michigan | A | L 69–110 | +26.5 | L−14.5 | 162.0 | O179 | 96.9 | 154.5 | 71.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUAlbanyPenn State
Efficiency
105.5
110.8
113.4
111.8
67.0
68.4
—
—
Shooting
51.3%
53.0%
52.8%
55.8%
32.6%
32.4%
65.9%
75.0%
24.9%
33.8%
Ball control & glass
18.5%
15.6%
15.8%
17.7%
32.7%
25.9%
32.4%
31.1%
10.4%
8.6%
9.4%
9.8%
Style
37.6%
38.1%
49.5%
46.1%
13.7%
14.8%
48.9%
48.3%
26.3%
33.2%
Roster
2.86
1.82
6'5.2"
6'7.1"
—
86.3%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUAlbany
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Penn State
Returning minutes: 86.3%Returning production: 82.2%
Lost
- Freddie Dilione V 27.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg · transferred to Georgia
Added
- Reggie Grodin no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.